How about Butler with the upset against UNC.
It's going to be an up and down year for Butler, but I never thought their ceiling would be this high. They rely on a freshman, Kellen Dunham, for a lot of key minutes, and an Arkansas transfer, Rotnei Clarke, for outside scoring. They'll have games this year when Clarke's shot doesn't fall and Dunham looks like a frosh. Moving to the A-10 is very good for them, and hopefully they'll survive it and be a tourney team this year. I don't see them in the upper third of the A-10, but I've seen stranger things.