Are You Ready for Some Football - Steelers/Ravens 2012 v2.0

[joopen]

a point about Willie Colon's penalties, 5 , I believe were in the Philly game. I hope he can return soon.

* I read that Ike's sprain, could it be , high ankle sprain, may take 3-6 weeks.

He was flagged for 4 but only 3 were accepted...

[Rocco]

Don't forget all the holds he doesn't get called for which results in opposing tackles getting to hold Harrison/Woodley out of fair play.

[tifosi77]

The point is, the running game this year is as hit-or-miss this year as it was last year, and it hasn't hit as well.

I think a big part of that this year is the miserable start the ground game got off to in the first 4, 5 games. Wasn't it something like the worst start to a season for the Steelers run game in like 60-odd years? They have run the ball much more effectively in the latter half of the season (with I think three 100-yard rushers in the last five or six outings), and are still averaging over 100 yards on the ground as a team. And that's with the crap start.

Overall, I can't say the run game has been a major weakness (aside from, you know, the fumbles) since about week 7 or 8.

[Rocco]

The point is, the running game this year is as hit-or-miss this year as it was last year, and it hasn't hit as well.

I think a big part of that this year is the miserable start the ground game got off to in the first 4, 5 games. Wasn't it something like the worst start to a season for the Steelers run game in like 60-odd years? They have run the ball much more effectively in the latter half of the season (with I think three 100-yard rushers in the last five or six outings), and are still averaging over 100 yards on the ground as a team. And that's with the crap start.

Overall, I can't say the run game has been a major weakness (aside from, you know, the fumbles) since about week 7 or 8.

They've been helped by playing teams that aren't good against the run.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Baltimore is 25st. Cincy is 29th. NYG is 22nd. Cleveland is 14th and the Steelers couldn't run the ball even when they weren't fumbling. They had trouble running against a bad KC rush defense. Maybe it hasn't been a weakness but it hasn't been anything noteworthy. The offense will go as far as BRoeth can take it while avoiding the mayhem caused by Colon.

[shafnutz05]

Shawn Suisham is apparently the most accurate placekicker in Steelers history

[joopen]

http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/sports/steelernation/roethlisberger-expected-back-on-sunday-but-cornerback-tayalor-out-664868/

Looks like Ben in and Ike out for at least 2 weeks

[TheHammer24]

I think the problem with complaining about Colon is he has played very well this year, and deserves credit for the run game's resurgence.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff2011

They were a much better running team last year than this year.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2011

Last year they were 3rd in Adjusted Line Yards. This year? 26th so far. FO doesn't track plays behind the left/right guard, but their effectiveness at running up the middle is down this year. The rush offense is not as effective this year on a per-play basis. And if you think that advanced statistics that take quality of opponents into account are the devil, they averaged 4.4 YPC last year. This year they are at 3.8 YPC, and it's not like they are running the ball a ton more. As much as I'd love to blame it on Colon that would be intellectually dishonest. The revolving door at RB, the problems at RT, and now the QB issues make it impossible to compare the lines. The point is, the running game this year is as hit-or-miss this year as it was last year, and it hasn't hit as well. The Steelers wasted the opportunity to get free from Colon when the Bears were interested in him and now they are paying him too much to get rid of him.

I give considerable deference to advance statistics, but like you said, these don't necessarily indict Colon. Perhaps statistically this and last season are similarly inconsistent, but from my lay observations, the run game's success seems directly correlated with Colon's performance. I agree we started rocky, but in the Monday (or Sunday?) night game he was destroying the other team's line. I think this was our first 100 yards game, but I'm not positive. He has pulled well too. I guess I admit that if the run game's success is correlated to Colon's success then its failures are correlated to his failures as well. .

I guess my point (to the extent I have one) is I think you're carrying your previously justified Colon venom from the previous seasons into this season. If this was his first season, I sincerely doubt you would be as critical. When Decastro was activated there was not a collective sigh of relief that we could finally put Colon on the bench. Instead, the talk was whether we would keep Foster.

[Steve]

How has Colon graded this season? I'm just watching the games on TV - so like most offensive linemen - they only show his replays when he throws a crushing block on a nice running play, or when he wrestles someone to the ground and gets flagged for it.

It seems like both happen alot - so I'm curious to hear how he's doing in the other plays...

[the errey i breathe]

Don't forget all the holds he doesn't get called for which results in opposing tackles getting to hold Harrison/Woodley out of fair play.

You can't use this as an argument as it makes no objective point. Who's to say he isn't holding out of "fair play" and not getting called BECAUSE Harrison/Woodley get held? You've had better.

[the errey i breathe]

The point is, the running game this year is as hit-or-miss this year as it was last year, and it hasn't hit as well.

I think a big part of that this year is the miserable start the ground game got off to in the first 4, 5 games. Wasn't it something like the worst start to a season for the Steelers run game in like 60-odd years? They have run the ball much more effectively in the latter half of the season (with I think three 100-yard rushers in the last five or six outings), and are still averaging over 100 yards on the ground as a team. And that's with the crap start.

Overall, I can't say the run game has been a major weakness (aside from, you know, the fumbles) since about week 7 or 8.

They've been helped by playing teams that aren't good against the run.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Baltimore is 25st. Cincy is 29th. NYG is 22nd. Cleveland is 14th and the Steelers couldn't run the ball even when they weren't fumbling. They had trouble running against a bad KC rush defense. Maybe it hasn't been a weakness but it hasn't been anything noteworthy. The offense will go as far as BRoeth can take it while avoiding the mayhem caused by Colon.

Ben was also out for 3.5 of those games when teams essentially dared them to pass.

[Rocco]

Don't forget all the holds he doesn't get called for which results in opposing tackles getting to hold Harrison/Woodley out of fair play.

You can't use this as an argument as it makes no objective point. Who's to say he isn't holding out of "fair play" and not getting called BECAUSE Harrison/Woodley get held? You've had better.

It's a throwaway point but I find it hard to believe there's no coincidence between the number of holds Colon gets away with and the number of uncalled holds on Steelers defenders.

[tifosi77]

They've been helped by playing teams that aren't good against the run.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Baltimore is 25st. Cincy is 29th. NYG is 22nd. Cleveland is 14th and the Steelers couldn't run the ball even when they weren't fumbling. They had trouble running against a bad KC rush defense. Maybe it hasn't been a weakness but it hasn't been anything noteworthy. The offense will go as far as BRoeth can take it while avoiding the mayhem caused by Colon.

Fwiw, official NFL stats show team run defense as CIN #11, CLE #16, NYG is #21, BAL #23. Not hugely different from your numbers, except for the Bengals. Officially, Denver and Washington are both top 10 run defenses. In week 1, the Steelers only rushed for 75 yds against the Broncos. But in week 8 they ran for 140 (including over 100 from Dwyer) against the Skins.

I do agree that Roethlisberger is the key link in determining the Steelers' fortunes..... however, with no idea of what his effectiveness will be when he returns (I'm expecting him to be no more than about 80% optimal for pretty much the rest of the 2012 season, however long that is), I think the biggest boost he can have is an effective run game. And I think that week 8 performance against the Skins is the telling one for where this team's ground game can go, and I would say probably where it has to be for the Steelers to have a chance in the post-season.

As with anything, it's a mutually beneficial relationship. Ben makes teams respect the passing game more, which opens up opportunities for running against favorable defensive packages. You saw with Leftwich and Batch that teams didn't really respect the pass (and why should they?) and routinely loaded the box, so the running game was heading into 7-man fronts a lot.

[TheHammer24]

How has Colon graded this season? I'm just watching the games on TV - so like most offensive linemen - they only show his replays when he throws a crushing block on a nice running play, or when he wrestles someone to the ground and gets flagged for it.

It seems like both happen alot - so I'm curious to hear how he's doing in the other plays...

I'm in the same boat, really. I guess I'm inferring (rightly or wrongly) that between the holds and great blocks are adequate to good blocks. I don't feel like I've seen him give up that many sacks this year (a few stick out, I guess). I just feel like the run game after week 4 or whathever has picked up immensely, and our only real O-Line problem has been RT on pass protection.

BTW, no argument here that the team will go as far as Big Ben takes them.

[tifosi77]

And as of today, Batch is still the starter. That may change by Wednesday, of course. But it's by no means assured that Roethlisberger will play against the Chargers.

[Rocco]

I give considerable deference to advance statistics, but like you said, these don't necessarily indict Colon. Perhaps statistically this and last season are similarly inconsistent, but from my lay observations, the run game's success seems directly correlated with Colon's performance. I agree we started rocky, but in the Monday (or Sunday?) night game he was destroying the other team's line. I think this was our first 100 yards game, but I'm not positive. He has pulled well too. I guess I admit that if the run game's success is correlated to Colon's success then its failures are correlated to his failures as well. .

I guess my point (to the extent I have one) is I think you're carrying your previously justified Colon venom from the previous seasons into this season. If this was his first season, I sincerely doubt you would be as critical. When Decastro was activated there was not a collective sigh of relief that we could finally put Colon on the bench. Instead, the talk was whether we would keep Foster.

They've had 100 yard rushing games against the Eagles, Bengals, Redskins, Giants, and Ravens. The only one of those teams that has a working rush defense is the Redskins, and I tend to think that's a function of them being so bad in the secondary that there's no need to try to grind out yards on the ground against them. Even when BRoeth was healthy against KC they weren't running the ball well.

Make whatever excuses for Colon you want, but the fact of the matter is over this has been the worst rushing attack the Steelers have had since 2009, which was also the last time Colon was a regular starter. Every time he gets hurt the Steelers have found it relatively easy to replace him and get equal or greater play out of his backup. The fact that Foster is worse than Colon isn't a good thing.

[Rocco]

They've been helped by playing teams that aren't good against the run.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Baltimore is 25st. Cincy is 29th. NYG is 22nd. Cleveland is 14th and the Steelers couldn't run the ball even when they weren't fumbling. They had trouble running against a bad KC rush defense. Maybe it hasn't been a weakness but it hasn't been anything noteworthy. The offense will go as far as BRoeth can take it while avoiding the mayhem caused by Colon.

Fwiw, official NFL stats show team run defense as CIN #11, CLE #16, NYG is #21, BAL #23. Not hugely different from your numbers, except for the Bengals. Officially, Denver and Washington are both top 10 run defenses. In week 1, the Steelers only rushed for 75 yds against the Broncos. But in week 8 they ran for 140 (including over 100 from Dwyer) against the Skins.

The official stats don't take context or opponent quality into account. I don't think FO's numbers are perfect, but they make an attempt to take everything into consideration. As for the Redskins, I think part of why their run D looks good is because their secondary is not good, so it skews the numbers. And as for Cincy, the only team they've faced who is actually good at running the football was Washington and the Skins gouged them despite trailing for double digits for large swaths of that game.

[TheHammer24]

They've been helped by playing teams that aren't good against the run.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Baltimore is 25st. Cincy is 29th. NYG is 22nd. Cleveland is 14th and the Steelers couldn't run the ball even when they weren't fumbling. They had trouble running against a bad KC rush defense. Maybe it hasn't been a weakness but it hasn't been anything noteworthy. The offense will go as far as BRoeth can take it while avoiding the mayhem caused by Colon.

Fwiw, official NFL stats show team run defense as CIN #11, CLE #16, NYG is #21, BAL #23. Not hugely different from your numbers, except for the Bengals. Officially, Denver and Washington are both top 10 run defenses. In week 1, the Steelers only rushed for 75 yds against the Broncos. But in week 8 they ran for 140 (including over 100 from Dwyer) against the Skins.

The official stats don't take context or opponent quality into account. I don't think FO's numbers are perfect, but they make an attempt to take everything into consideration. As for the Redskins, I think part of why their run D looks good is because their secondary is not good, so it skews the numbers. And as for Cincy, the only team they've faced who is actually good at running the football was Washington and the Skins gouged them despite trailing for double digits for large swaths of that game.

Based on your logic, you can prove that any one on the line sucks. You're assuming that Colon is bad, and looking for data that arguably shows your conclusion.

Call me crazy, but I thought it was pretty well-accepted viewpoint that the O-Line was a strength this year. And who are the only new additions? Colon and Adams. Maybe you're suggesting Gilbert was the problem last year? That can't be true--Adams has struggled immensely in pass protection.

Of course, Colon replaced some poor players. But if you can't recognize that Colon playing LG has improved the line, you've ruled out the possibility that he can be good. You're just carrying your vendetta too far. He's the 2nd or 3rd best lineman right now on a team that has given its quarterbacks plenty of time to throw this year---Gilbert's gone, Adams, has struggled, and you said he's better than Foster.

[DropEmJayBird]

No way has Colon performed better than Foster. And Adams settled down in just about every game he's played in. He might get beat early, but he shuts down his guy after that for the most part.

Put DeCastro in at LG, and Adams back when healthy at RT, and you've got a better o-line than what you've started with this year.
Starks - DeCastro - Pouncey - Foster - Adams

Colon makes an excellent back up.

[Rocco]

The line play is better this year mostly because they're giving up fewer sacks. Part of that is due to the change in philosophy and fewer deep shots. Part of it has been the improved play of the tackles. Adams/Gilbert have played well, and Starks this year has played better than he did last year when he was signed mid-season to replace a completely and utterly horrible Jonathan Scott. They aren't running the ball better this year.

Colon was lost for the season in 2010 and 2011, and the Steelers ran the ball to the right better than they did in 2009 and his replacements at RT gave up fewer sacks and committed fewer penalties. Colon is playing guard this year and the Steelers are struggling to run up the middle. Yeah, all a giant coincidence. He's pestilence wherever he plays.

[TheHammer24]

All I read there was the steelers line this the steelers line that. I will always hate colon no matter what. Do you ever admit your opinion may be off?

[Rocco]

All I read there was the steelers line this the steelers line that. I will always hate colon no matter what. Do you ever admit your opinion may be off?

I write what I see. I see a penalty-taking, momentum-killing, block-whiffing anchor. Seriously, he has 8 of the team's 30 offensive holding calls. No one else has more than 3 holding calls and Colon's missed 2 games. Heath has 3 holding calls and Stevenson Sylvester has 3 on special teams. The rest of the line is either blocking without holding or not getting caught.

http://www.nflpenalties.com/team/pittsb ... ?year=2012

Read whatever you want. I really don't care. Just ignore the fact that the line seems to mysteriously get better every time he's out and you'll be fine.

[DelPen]

And as of today, Batch is still the starter. That may change by Wednesday, of course. But it's by no means assured that Roethlisberger will play against the Chargers.

As long as Miller is a key part if the offense then I don't care who the QB is.

6 yard pass, 4 yard run. Keep doing that when you don't have an elite QB taking snaps. With our defense that would be enough to win unless you get gutless performances like Wallace vs the Ravens or put Batch in bad situations like vs the Browns.

[joopen]

And as of today, Batch is still the starter. That may change by Wednesday, of course. But it's by no means assured that Roethlisberger will play against the Chargers.

As long as Miller is a key part if the offense then I don't care who the QB is.

6 yard pass, 4 yard run. Keep doing that when you don't have an elite QB taking snaps. With our defense that would be enough to win unless you get gutless performances like Wallace vs the Ravens a roll of paper towels or put Batch in bad situations like vs the Browns.

fixt

[TheHammer24]

All I read there was the steelers line this the steelers line that. I will always hate colon no matter what. Do you ever admit your opinion may be off?

I write what I see. I see a penalty-taking, momentum-killing, block-whiffing anchor. Seriously, he has 8 of the team's 30 offensive holding calls. No one else has more than 3 holding calls and Colon's missed 2 games. Heath has 3 holding calls and Stevenson Sylvester has 3 on special teams. The rest of the line is either blocking without holding or not getting caught.

http://www.nflpenalties.com/team/pittsb ... ?year=2012

Read whatever you want. I really don't care. Just ignore the fact that the line seems to mysteriously get better every time he's out and you'll be fine.

and I suggest you see what you're predisposed to see. Anyway, I don't know how you square the line gets better when he's out with the line's improvement this year.

[shmenguin]

seems like your attack on colon is the same sort of thing you get jammed up about when people attack ike taylor.