Magic Number Thread!

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Magic Number Thread!

Postby ysthomas on Mon Jan 21, 2013 6:42 pm

Am I right in thinking that the magic number for a playoff spot...91? Sorry, the math teacher in me couldn't help myself.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby Mr. Colby on Mon Jan 21, 2013 6:46 pm

91 it is... I guess it's never too early to get this started!

MN Equation:

Spoiler:
MN = [9th highest Max Points] + 1 - [Pens Current Points]
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby champeen on Mon Jan 21, 2013 8:42 pm

I would be interested in knowing how you calculate '9th Highest Max Pts.'
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby KBone on Mon Jan 21, 2013 9:50 pm

I'll eat my hat if any team comes close to 91 points. :lol:

I mean... I'll take 45-2-1 from the Pens, but it's not happening.

In all honesty though... I could see 51 being the magic number. Look back at the 94-95 standings.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby Metalmike on Mon Jan 21, 2013 11:28 pm

They said on Sportsnet between periods of the leafs game that 56 pts will get you into the Playoffs this shortened season.


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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby Mr. Colby on Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:20 am

champeen wrote:I would be interested in knowing how you calculate '9th Highest Max Pts.'


Take every team's remaining games, multiply by 2, add their current points, and then rank them
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby Mr. Colby on Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:21 am

KBone wrote:I'll eat my hat if any team comes close to 91 points. :lol:

I mean... I'll take 45-2-1 from the Pens, but it's not happening.

In all honesty though... I could see 51 being the magic number. Look back at the 94-95 standings.


I think you're missing the point of a magic number... it's mathematical not realistic.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby champeen on Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:32 am

Mr. Colby wrote:
champeen wrote:I would be interested in knowing how you calculate '9th Highest Max Pts.'


Take every team's remaining games, multiply by 2, add their current points, and then rank them


I'm sure this is obvious, but this clearly ignores the fact that the teams play each other.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby DelPen on Tue Jan 22, 2013 8:14 am

champeen wrote:
Mr. Colby wrote:
champeen wrote:I would be interested in knowing how you calculate '9th Highest Max Pts.'


Take every team's remaining games, multiply by 2, add their current points, and then rank them


I'm sure this is obvious, but this clearly ignores the fact that the teams play each other.

And that has nothing to do with the number.

People better stay up on the ball, hope to see Sid, Geno, Slegr, Letang, Straka among other high numbers we don't usually get to see in these threads.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby relantel on Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:06 am

DelPen wrote:People better stay up on the ball, hope to see Sid, Geno, Slegr, Letang, Straka among other high numbers we don't usually get to see in these threads.

damn. We missed our chance at Nevded and Tocchet. :pop:
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby tfrizz on Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:48 am

DelPen wrote:
champeen wrote:
Mr. Colby wrote:
champeen wrote:I would be interested in knowing how you calculate '9th Highest Max Pts.'


Take every team's remaining games, multiply by 2, add their current points, and then rank them


I'm sure this is obvious, but this clearly ignores the fact that the teams play each other.

And that has nothing to do with the number.

People better stay up on the ball, hope to see Sid, Geno, Slegr, Letang, Straka among other high numbers we don't usually get to see in these threads.


It does, and it doesn't. To get the correct magic number, you've got to consider tiebreakers.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby champeen on Tue Jan 22, 2013 11:14 am

DelPen wrote:
champeen wrote:
Mr. Colby wrote:
champeen wrote:I would be interested in knowing how you calculate '9th Highest Max Pts.'


Take every team's remaining games, multiply by 2, add their current points, and then rank them


I'm sure this is obvious, but this clearly ignores the fact that the teams play each other.

And that has nothing to do with the number.


It wouldn't effect the calculation of the Highest Max Pts. But it would certainly effect the calculation of slots 2-9, wouldn't it? I'm not trying to pick a fight, I just can't help but think it has been over-simplified here.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby relantel on Tue Jan 22, 2013 11:22 am

tfrizz wrote:
DelPen wrote:And that has nothing to do with the number.

People better stay up on the ball, hope to see Sid, Geno, Slegr, Letang, Straka among other high numbers we don't usually get to see in these threads.


It does, and it doesn't. To get the correct magic number, you've got to consider tiebreakers.

Well, by using this method, tiebreakers don't matter. It calculates the number of points necessary to clinch outright over the 9th most max points. We are too far out to worry about tiebreakers.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby tfrizz on Tue Jan 22, 2013 11:23 am

ysthomas wrote:Am I right in thinking that the magic number for a playoff spot...91? Sorry, the math teacher in me couldn't help myself.


Currect. There are currently 5 teams in the east with 96 point potential (undefeated) followed by 7 with 94 point potential; this means 8th is attainable with 94 points and the proper tiebreaks but 95 secures a spot. 95 - 4 = 91
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby champeen on Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:15 pm

tfrizz wrote:
ysthomas wrote:Am I right in thinking that the magic number for a playoff spot...91? Sorry, the math teacher in me couldn't help myself.


Currect. There are currently 5 teams in the east with 96 point potential (undefeated) followed by 7 with 94 point potential; this means 8th is attainable with 94 points and the proper tiebreaks but 95 secures a spot. 95 - 4 = 91


Again, this is just not true. Only one team in the east can go undefeated. If we're going to be mathy, why not dig in and figure it out for real?
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby tfrizz on Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:19 pm

champeen wrote:
tfrizz wrote:
ysthomas wrote:Am I right in thinking that the magic number for a playoff spot...91? Sorry, the math teacher in me couldn't help myself.


Currect. There are currently 5 teams in the east with 96 point potential (undefeated) followed by 7 with 94 point potential; this means 8th is attainable with 94 points and the proper tiebreaks but 95 secures a spot. 95 - 4 = 91


Again, this is just not true. Only one team in the east can go undefeated. If we're going to be mathy, why not dig in and figure it out for real?


Because there are 8.8629381e+21 different possible outcomes for the Pens' season.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby Three Stars on Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:30 pm

I only trust one web site for these kinds of things.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/East ... burgh.html

79.6% chance for the playoffs right now.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby Idoit40fans on Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:36 pm

champeen wrote:
DelPen wrote:
champeen wrote:
Mr. Colby wrote:
champeen wrote:I would be interested in knowing how you calculate '9th Highest Max Pts.'


Take every team's remaining games, multiply by 2, add their current points, and then rank them


I'm sure this is obvious, but this clearly ignores the fact that the teams play each other.

And that has nothing to do with the number.


It wouldn't effect the calculation of the Highest Max Pts. But it would certainly effect the calculation of slots 2-9, wouldn't it? I'm not trying to pick a fight, I just can't help but think it has been over-simplified here.


No, the magic number is pretty simple.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby relantel on Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:38 pm

Three Stars wrote:I only trust one web site for these kinds of things.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/East ... burgh.html

79.6% chance for the playoffs right now.

hmm. So it's seeming like SCS thinks 58 points needed for playoff spot.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby champeen on Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:53 pm

there has to be some sort of middle ground along these lines (to start the season):

1. 1 team goes undefeated
2. 1 non-divisional rival wins every game except 3 games against team #1.
3. 1 team from remaining division wins every game except the 6 games vs. teams 1 and 2.
4. 1 team from team 1's div. wins every game except the 4 vs. team 1 and the 6 vs. teams 2 and 3.
5. 1 team from div. 2 wins every game except the 4 vs. team 2 and the 9 vs. teams 1,3, and 4.
6. 1 team from div. 3 wins every game except the 4 vs. team 3. and the 12 vs. teams 1,2,4,and 5.
7. 1 team from div. 1 loses 8 games in their division, and 16 outside the division.
blah, blah ,blah.....

ok... and the minute you play some games this is out the window. i know. still think there's a better way.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby pressure=9Pa on Tue Jan 22, 2013 1:14 pm

^You're thinking is correct, but 8th place is harder to obtain if teams 1-8 all beat each other regularly instead of a true pecking order.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby relantel on Fri Jan 25, 2013 9:55 am

I calc 90 this AM - Winnipeg is 9th most max at 93. Two other teams at 92 and four at 90. So nothing else changing, any win over Winnipeg tonight would make the MN 87. (Since a regulation win would drop Winnipeg below the 92 max teams, making 92 the 9th most)
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby relantel on Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:23 pm

Now at 88 with the win last night. Haven't done a calc though, hard to read standings on my phone to determine if the 9th max fell any over the weekend.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby tfrizz on Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:36 pm

relantel wrote:Now at 88 with the win last night. Haven't done a calc though, hard to read standings on my phone to determine if the 9th max fell any over the weekend.


It's 85 now. Islanders max out at 91 points.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby Mr. Colby on Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:35 pm

84 now.
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