Magic Number Thread!

[ysthomas]

Am I right in thinking that the magic number for a playoff spot...91? Sorry, the math teacher in me couldn't help myself.

[Mr. Colby]

91 it is... I guess it's never too early to get this started!

MN Equation:

Spoiler:

MN = [9th highest Max Points] + 1 - [Pens Current Points]

[champeen]

I would be interested in knowing how you calculate '9th Highest Max Pts.'

[KBone]

I'll eat my hat if any team comes close to 91 points.

I mean... I'll take 45-2-1 from the Pens, but it's not happening.

In all honesty though... I could see 51 being the magic number. Look back at the 94-95 standings.

[Metalmike]

They said on Sportsnet between periods of the leafs game that 56 pts will get you into the Playoffs this shortened season.


Metal Mike, Canada's #1 Penguins Fan.

[Mr. Colby]

I would be interested in knowing how you calculate '9th Highest Max Pts.'

Take every team's remaining games, multiply by 2, add their current points, and then rank them

[Mr. Colby]

I'll eat my hat if any team comes close to 91 points.

I mean... I'll take 45-2-1 from the Pens, but it's not happening.

In all honesty though... I could see 51 being the magic number. Look back at the 94-95 standings.

I think you're missing the point of a magic number... it's mathematical not realistic.

[champeen]

I would be interested in knowing how you calculate '9th Highest Max Pts.'

Take every team's remaining games, multiply by 2, add their current points, and then rank them

I'm sure this is obvious, but this clearly ignores the fact that the teams play each other.

[DelPen]

I would be interested in knowing how you calculate '9th Highest Max Pts.'

Take every team's remaining games, multiply by 2, add their current points, and then rank them

I'm sure this is obvious, but this clearly ignores the fact that the teams play each other.

And that has nothing to do with the number.

People better stay up on the ball, hope to see Sid, Geno, Slegr, Letang, Straka among other high numbers we don't usually get to see in these threads.

[relantel]

People better stay up on the ball, hope to see Sid, Geno, Slegr, Letang, Straka among other high numbers we don't usually get to see in these threads.

damn. We missed our chance at Nevded and Tocchet.

[tfrizz]

I would be interested in knowing how you calculate '9th Highest Max Pts.'

Take every team's remaining games, multiply by 2, add their current points, and then rank them

I'm sure this is obvious, but this clearly ignores the fact that the teams play each other.

And that has nothing to do with the number.

People better stay up on the ball, hope to see Sid, Geno, Slegr, Letang, Straka among other high numbers we don't usually get to see in these threads.

It does, and it doesn't. To get the correct magic number, you've got to consider tiebreakers.

[champeen]

I would be interested in knowing how you calculate '9th Highest Max Pts.'

Take every team's remaining games, multiply by 2, add their current points, and then rank them

I'm sure this is obvious, but this clearly ignores the fact that the teams play each other.

And that has nothing to do with the number.

It wouldn't effect the calculation of the Highest Max Pts. But it would certainly effect the calculation of slots 2-9, wouldn't it? I'm not trying to pick a fight, I just can't help but think it has been over-simplified here.

[relantel]

And that has nothing to do with the number.

People better stay up on the ball, hope to see Sid, Geno, Slegr, Letang, Straka among other high numbers we don't usually get to see in these threads.

It does, and it doesn't. To get the correct magic number, you've got to consider tiebreakers.

Well, by using this method, tiebreakers don't matter. It calculates the number of points necessary to clinch outright over the 9th most max points. We are too far out to worry about tiebreakers.

[tfrizz]

Am I right in thinking that the magic number for a playoff spot...91? Sorry, the math teacher in me couldn't help myself.

Currect. There are currently 5 teams in the east with 96 point potential (undefeated) followed by 7 with 94 point potential; this means 8th is attainable with 94 points and the proper tiebreaks but 95 secures a spot. 95 - 4 = 91

[champeen]

Am I right in thinking that the magic number for a playoff spot...91? Sorry, the math teacher in me couldn't help myself.

Currect. There are currently 5 teams in the east with 96 point potential (undefeated) followed by 7 with 94 point potential; this means 8th is attainable with 94 points and the proper tiebreaks but 95 secures a spot. 95 - 4 = 91

Again, this is just not true. Only one team in the east can go undefeated. If we're going to be mathy, why not dig in and figure it out for real?

[tfrizz]

Am I right in thinking that the magic number for a playoff spot...91? Sorry, the math teacher in me couldn't help myself.

Currect. There are currently 5 teams in the east with 96 point potential (undefeated) followed by 7 with 94 point potential; this means 8th is attainable with 94 points and the proper tiebreaks but 95 secures a spot. 95 - 4 = 91

Again, this is just not true. Only one team in the east can go undefeated. If we're going to be mathy, why not dig in and figure it out for real?

Because there are 8.8629381e+21 different possible outcomes for the Pens' season.

[Three Stars]

I only trust one web site for these kinds of things.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/East ... burgh.html

79.6% chance for the playoffs right now.

[Idoit40fans]

I would be interested in knowing how you calculate '9th Highest Max Pts.'

Take every team's remaining games, multiply by 2, add their current points, and then rank them

I'm sure this is obvious, but this clearly ignores the fact that the teams play each other.

And that has nothing to do with the number.

It wouldn't effect the calculation of the Highest Max Pts. But it would certainly effect the calculation of slots 2-9, wouldn't it? I'm not trying to pick a fight, I just can't help but think it has been over-simplified here.

No, the magic number is pretty simple.

[relantel]

I only trust one web site for these kinds of things.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/East ... burgh.html

79.6% chance for the playoffs right now.

hmm. So it's seeming like SCS thinks 58 points needed for playoff spot.

[champeen]

there has to be some sort of middle ground along these lines (to start the season):

1. 1 team goes undefeated
2. 1 non-divisional rival wins every game except 3 games against team #1.
3. 1 team from remaining division wins every game except the 6 games vs. teams 1 and 2.
4. 1 team from team 1's div. wins every game except the 4 vs. team 1 and the 6 vs. teams 2 and 3.
5. 1 team from div. 2 wins every game except the 4 vs. team 2 and the 9 vs. teams 1,3, and 4.
6. 1 team from div. 3 wins every game except the 4 vs. team 3. and the 12 vs. teams 1,2,4,and 5.
7. 1 team from div. 1 loses 8 games in their division, and 16 outside the division.
blah, blah ,blah.....

ok... and the minute you play some games this is out the window. i know. still think there's a better way.

[pressure=9Pa]

^You're thinking is correct, but 8th place is harder to obtain if teams 1-8 all beat each other regularly instead of a true pecking order.

[relantel]

I calc 90 this AM - Winnipeg is 9th most max at 93. Two other teams at 92 and four at 90. So nothing else changing, any win over Winnipeg tonight would make the MN 87. (Since a regulation win would drop Winnipeg below the 92 max teams, making 92 the 9th most)

[relantel]

Now at 88 with the win last night. Haven't done a calc though, hard to read standings on my phone to determine if the 9th max fell any over the weekend.

[tfrizz]

Now at 88 with the win last night. Haven't done a calc though, hard to read standings on my phone to determine if the 9th max fell any over the weekend.

It's 85 now. Islanders max out at 91 points.

[Mr. Colby]

84 now.