Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby helmespc on Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:26 am

Beveridge wrote:Obviously, Bylsma drunk dialed Shero saying I'm going to start Lovejoy over Despres tomorrow, try and stop me.

Shero then went out and found a 5th round pick for lovejoy to stick it to the man.


+1 :thumb:
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby tfrizz on Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:28 am

JeffDFD wrote:So why did we recall Dylan Reese? Do we need to scratch 3 people every night? Wonder who will be sitting now.


With Lovejoy gone, the Pens only had 6 healthy defensemen. GMRS and HCDB both seem to like carrying an extra forward and extra defensemen in case of emergency.
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby JeffDFD on Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:32 am

Yes, but I thought we had 3 scratches last game...or was one Niskanen?
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby Dickie Dunn on Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:42 am

JeffDFD wrote:Yes, but I thought we had 3 scratches last game...or was one Niskanen?


Lovejoy, Jeffrey, Tangradi.
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby Buster Bluth on Thu Feb 07, 2013 11:39 am

I had the chance to cross paths with Ben out in the "real world" a couple of times. There isn't a more genuine guy out there to be sure. Unfortunately, I knew this was pretty much a foregone conclusion. The depth chart did not favor him, and that is a good problem for the Penguins to have.

I will definitely continue to follow him as he plays in Anaheim. I wish there were more athletes out there who approached playing in a professional league the way he does (yes, there are others out there, but there could always be more).
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby FreeCandy44 on Thu Feb 07, 2013 11:44 am

Beveridge wrote:Obviously, Bylsma drunk dialed Shero saying I'm going to start Lovejoy over Despres tomorrow, try and stop me.

Shero then went out and found a 5th round pick for lovejoy to stick it to the man.

Incredible :)
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby Defence21 on Thu Feb 07, 2013 11:52 am

Dan H wrote:For reference, judging by a quick glance at HockeyDB's draft stats from 10-15 years ago:

About 30% of 5th round picks ever play 1 game in the NHL.
About 15% of 5th round picks accrue at least 100 NHL games.

So, basically, there's roughly a 70% chance the Ducks "win" this trade in the long run, a 15% chance it's a push, and a 15% chance the Pens win it. But if the Pens draft well and hit that last 15%, they could "win" by a lot; a handful of really good players have come out of the later rounds of the draft. The Ducks can only possibly "win" by one solid 7th defenseman, unless Lovejoy really exceeds expectations there.

My initial thought was that Lovejoy's value is more than a 5th rounder, but after looking at these I think it's probably pretty fair for him.

If you look at it purely as what Lovejoy does in relation to what the pick does, you're right, the odds are against the Penguins.

But let's look at two ways that can and should be debunked.

1. Lovejoy was undrafted. Shero turned an undrafted, 29-year old, healthy scratch player into a 5th round draft pick.

2. This pick may be traded. Let's say Shero trades this 5th round pick along with another pick or player and receives a quality return. The pick might actually have more value at the trade deadline to a regouping team than would a 29-year-old player with fewer than 100 games.

The way I look at the trade is that the Penguins turned an extra into an asset. Maybe they use the asset as is and draft a player -- maybe they trade the asset alone or as part of a package to improve the team. Either way, Shero turned a non-used player into something that can and will be used.
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby Steve Dave on Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:15 pm

So since the early playoff exit, Shero has made the following moves: (am I missing any, excluding wbs)

Vokoun - 2012 7th

Sutter - Staal
Dumoulin
#8 2012 (Pouliot)

Ruopp - Michalek
#81 2012 (Sundqvist)

Signs Niskanen to 2 yr. extension

Signs Crosby to 12 yr. extension

Signs Glass, 2yrs

Lets Sullivan, Asham, Park, Johnson walk

Loses Strait on waivers

Acquires Boychuk on waivers

2014 5th - Lovejoy
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby brwi on Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:36 pm

Defence21 wrote:
Dan H wrote:For reference, judging by a quick glance at HockeyDB's draft stats from 10-15 years ago:

About 30% of 5th round picks ever play 1 game in the NHL.
About 15% of 5th round picks accrue at least 100 NHL games.

So, basically, there's roughly a 70% chance the Ducks "win" this trade in the long run, a 15% chance it's a push, and a 15% chance the Pens win it. But if the Pens draft well and hit that last 15%, they could "win" by a lot; a handful of really good players have come out of the later rounds of the draft. The Ducks can only possibly "win" by one solid 7th defenseman, unless Lovejoy really exceeds expectations there.

My initial thought was that Lovejoy's value is more than a 5th rounder, but after looking at these I think it's probably pretty fair for him.

If you look at it purely as what Lovejoy does in relation to what the pick does, you're right, the odds are against the Penguins.

But let's look at two ways that can and should be debunked.

1. Lovejoy was undrafted. Shero turned an undrafted, 29-year old, healthy scratch player into a 5th round draft pick.

2. This pick may be traded. Let's say Shero trades this 5th round pick along with another pick or player and receives a quality return. The pick might actually have more value at the trade deadline to a regouping team than would a 29-year-old player with fewer than 100 games.

The way I look at the trade is that the Penguins turned an extra into an asset. Maybe they use the asset as is and draft a player -- maybe they trade the asset alone or as part of a package to improve the team. Either way, Shero turned a non-used player into something that can and will be used.


:thumb: That sums it up nicely.
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby penny lane on Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:50 pm

Shelly Anderson ‏@pgshelly
Bylsma declined to give update on Letang, who left skate early, saying that all (besides Fleury starting) is game-time decision. #Penguins

:( why dylan reese in pgh?
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby mikey287 on Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:53 pm

Steve Dave wrote:So since the early playoff exit, Shero has made the following moves: (am I missing any, excluding wbs)

Vokoun - 2012 7th

Sutter - Staal
Dumoulin
#8 2012 (Pouliot)

Ruopp - Michalek
#81 2012 (Sundqvist)

Signs Niskanen to 2 yr. extension

Signs Crosby to 12 yr. extension

Signs Glass, 2yrs

Lets Sullivan, Asham, Park, Johnson walk

Loses Strait on waivers

Acquires Boychuk on waivers

2014 5th - Lovejoy


Not sure if they fall under the "excluding WBS" caveat, but traded Sneep for a conditional 7th and signed Jayson Megna out of college.
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby sil on Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:56 pm

mikey287 wrote:
Steve Dave wrote:So since the early playoff exit, Shero has made the following moves: (am I missing any, excluding wbs)

Vokoun - 2012 7th

Sutter - Staal
Dumoulin
#8 2012 (Pouliot)

Ruopp - Michalek
#81 2012 (Sundqvist)

Signs Niskanen to 2 yr. extension

Signs Crosby to 12 yr. extension

Signs Glass, 2yrs

Lets Sullivan, Asham, Park, Johnson walk

Loses Strait on waivers

Acquires Boychuk on waivers

2014 5th - Lovejoy


Not sure if they fall under the "excluding WBS" caveat, but traded Sneep for a conditional 7th and signed Jayson Megna out of college.


Also traded Ferriero (sp?) for Kolarik.
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby JeffDFD on Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:04 pm

Dickie Dunn wrote:
JeffDFD wrote:Yes, but I thought we had 3 scratches last game...or was one Niskanen?


Lovejoy, Jeffrey, Tangradi.


That makes sense then. I wonder how long we are going to scratch 2 forwards.
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby sil on Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:07 pm

JeffDFD wrote:
Dickie Dunn wrote:
JeffDFD wrote:Yes, but I thought we had 3 scratches last game...or was one Niskanen?


Lovejoy, Jeffrey, Tangradi.


That makes sense then. I wonder how long we are going to scratch 2 forwards.


Until someone with lack of size panics and calls Shero about Tangradi.
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby DelPen on Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:09 pm

JeffDFD wrote:
Dickie Dunn wrote:
JeffDFD wrote:Yes, but I thought we had 3 scratches last game...or was one Niskanen?


Lovejoy, Jeffrey, Tangradi.


That makes sense then. I wonder how long we are going to scratch 2 forwards.


Until Shero is satisfied with Boychuck and trades Tangradi.
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby JeffDFD on Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:15 pm

I think they have made up their mind on Tangradi, though
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby Geezer on Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:12 pm

penny lane wrote:
Shelly Anderson ‏@pgshelly
Bylsma declined to give update on Letang, who left skate early, saying that all (besides Fleury starting) is game-time decision. #Penguins

:( why dylan reese in pgh?

Letang with some sort of seemingly short term injury. He may miss tonight; game time decision.
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby no name on Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:26 pm

Geezer wrote:
penny lane wrote:
Shelly Anderson ‏@pgshelly
Bylsma declined to give update on Letang, who left skate early, saying that all (besides Fleury starting) is game-time decision. #Penguins

:( why dylan reese in pgh?

Letang with some sort of seemingly short term injury. He may miss tonight; game time decision.


Might be the Kunitz flu.
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby Defence21 on Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:04 pm

JeffDFD wrote:I think they have made up their mind on Tangradi, though

I don't know that they have. If so, why isn't he "on the block" or waived? I think they have an idea of where this is going, as we all do, but my guess is his door in Pittsburgh isn't fully closed at this point. That said, when Niskanen returns someone will have to go: Reese (if he isn't already back in the AHL) or Tangradi.
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby Fire0nice228 on Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:16 pm

Niskanen comes back they send Reese down, simple. He's not really NHL ready or else we'd all have been including him in the Lovejoy, Daypray, Bortuzzo conversations.

Then they probably get rid of Jeffrey or Tangradi (Barring no other IR issues) and carry Despres/Bort/forward
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby meow on Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:23 pm

Defence21 wrote:
JeffDFD wrote:I think they have made up their mind on Tangradi, though

I don't know that they have. If so, why isn't he "on the block" or waived? I think they have an idea of where this is going, as we all do, but my guess is his door in Pittsburgh isn't fully closed at this point. That said, when Niskanen returns someone will have to go: Reese (if he isn't already back in the AHL) or Tangradi.

How do you know he's not on the block?
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby JeffDFD on Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:46 pm

meow wrote:
Defence21 wrote:
JeffDFD wrote:I think they have made up their mind on Tangradi, though

I don't know that they have. If so, why isn't he "on the block" or waived? I think they have an idea of where this is going, as we all do, but my guess is his door in Pittsburgh isn't fully closed at this point. That said, when Niskanen returns someone will have to go: Reese (if he isn't already back in the AHL) or Tangradi.

How do you know he's not on the block?


Hmm...knows who is on the trading block...username "defence" - Ray?
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby no name on Fri Feb 08, 2013 10:36 am

He is missing the Michelek trade.
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Re: Lovejoy to Anaheim for 5th round pick

Postby Defence21 on Fri Feb 08, 2013 11:21 am

meow wrote:
Defence21 wrote:
JeffDFD wrote:I think they have made up their mind on Tangradi, though

I don't know that they have. If so, why isn't he "on the block" or waived? I think they have an idea of where this is going, as we all do, but my guess is his door in Pittsburgh isn't fully closed at this point. That said, when Niskanen returns someone will have to go: Reese (if he isn't already back in the AHL) or Tangradi.

How do you know he's not on the block?

Good point. Come to think of it, most players Shero has traded weren't rumored to be on the block. He might well be shopping him as we speak.
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