Malkin's next contract

[Pavel Bure]

FWIW, I think the only reason we're having this conversation is because the team came out the other night with a willful single-mindedness, and played a solid determined game with everyone obviously on the same page. We saw this when Crosby went down as well. Malkin stepped up and lead the team like a maestro. Having 2 generational talents on the same team, who play the same position, is a HUGE challenge. It almost seems like the team plays a more focused game when 1 is leading the way.

I'm not advocating we trade Malkin for this reason, but if he were to come to a point in his career where he saw he'd be better off leading his own team, then you have to trade him. And I don't think it'd be the end of the world... (or the Penguins' reign as perennial contenders.)

We're only having this convo because it's fun to speculate. Nothing more, nothing less.

[shmenguin]

If Malkin leaves it would be because he wants to (like Staal) and not because Shero is trying to save a buck.

i don't agree with that at all. i think, unlike staal, malkin appreciates his role on this team. he gets his ice time, puts up his stats and wins unlimited awards. all this without having to awkwardly deal with the media because another dude is across the room taking the bullets. .

[the riddler]

If Malkin leaves it would be because he wants to (like Staal) and not because Shero is trying to save a buck.

i don't agree with that at all. i think, unlike staal, malkin appreciates his role on this team. he gets his ice time, puts up his stats and wins unlimited awards. all this without having to awkwardly deal with the media because another dude is across the room taking the bullets. .

Read my post again. I never said Malkin wants out, I think their plan is to have him be a Penguin for life and he would have to set something in motion to play somewhere else.

[shmenguin]

so it's "like staal" in the simple idea that he would want to be somewhere else, and not "like staal" in any of the supporting reasons.

[newarenanow]

I dont' get where folks are suspect of Gene's loyality to the penguins.

lol, what are you talking about? I understand you, and most of us, love Malkin. That being said, hockey is a business, not a sentimental movie. If Malkin decides he wants to take a larger contract somewhere else, does that make him a bad person? No. Does it mean that he hates Sidney Crosby or Mario Lemieux? No.

It simply means that he ultimately makes the decision to play elsewhere, and hundreds of factors can play into that. I think a lot of Pens fans need to get rid of this "team loyalty" mentality when it comes to some of their favorite players. While taking a hometown discount or whatever is nice, I wouldn't judge players at all for not doing so.

I think he signs because I think not only does he like the team, I think he likes the city, and he has Sid to take the spotlight while still being one of the world's best players.

I think he also will take a "home town discount", but not to the extent most people believe he will. I think it will be around a 9-9.5M cap hit.

If he does decide he wants more money or a change of scenery, I will not blame him.

I don't think he stays because I like him and he is one of my favorites, I say that because just from some interviews from both him and others, he wants to stay here and it will be his priority to make it happen. I'd actually be shocked if he signed elsewhere.

[Pavel Bure]

Someone mentioned St. Louis as a destination. Soooooooooo

Oshie, Perron, and a 1st for Malkin and Dupuis(if he comes back) yeah, no, something better? Backes is under a NTC, I really like Oshie anyway. Physical grinding type of scoring line Center, perfect for Bylsma's system.

[no name]

I don't see Geno leaving, but i don't feel he is as connected to the city as Crosby is.

[Idoit40fans]

I think Malkin fits in Pittsburgh more than Crosby does. He seems way more comfortable with being as low key as possible. Crosby could handle Toronto or Montreal if he had to. Not that he ever will.(get off me)

[slappybrown]

Malkin's not going anywhere and will be re-signed for a few reasons, the most important being somewhere around 9-10 million in guaranteed dollars that he will never see if he signs somewhere else. The best he can do is a seven-year deal somewhere else versus an eight-year deal here. Unless he makes up that figure somewhere else -- where they'd have to add around 1.2mm or so onto each year -- it makes no economic sense for this enigmatic, greedy, lackadaisacal Eurotrash Russian to sign anywhere else.

Carrying two cap hits between 8.7-10 over 8 years isn't as bad as it sounds, particularly with a cap guaranteed never to go below ~65mm. Its also comparable to what some other teams have done if a bit higher, and Mirtle's cap projections indicate that the by the end of the CBA we could be looking at a 90mm ceiling ( http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/h ... le7029575/ ).

Sid's already acknowledged that Malkin will likely have a higher cap figure than he will, simply because of the fact that you can't do a 12-year deal any longer. If I had to guess, I'd say 8 years, 78 million, coming at 9.75. To compare, if you're another team, that same contract is 7 years, 78 million, for a 11.15 cap hit. As far as I know, no one has ever hit a higher AAV than Ovechkin's 9.5mm. I find it hard to believe that after the lockout, and with the rules in place to prevent owners from committing economic suicide, you'd see someone willing to do a new non-circumvention deal at 11mm plus.

I sign him if he's anywhere between 8.7-10.

[newarenanow]

Holy crap, I agree with slappy.

[shafnutz05]

Good post slappy. And like I said before, it's not that I don't foresee Malkin re-signing with the Penguins. Rather, I think people are using the wrong arguments for suggesting that (team/city loyalty, Gene being a good guy, etc).

[slappybrown]

Holy crap, I agree with slappy.

Welp, that pretty much guarantees he's gone, now that Mush has agreed he's staying.

[Guinness]

It's tough putting them together because Malkin will be on the last year of his deal so his value while still very high may not be as high because his intentions if the Pens were going to trade him would have to be to test the free agent market.

Malkin is arguably the best player in the league. Throwing in a pick/prospect/player in any of those deals waters them down worse than they already are. If I were Shero, I'd rather take my chances at a Cup run than take any of those deals, and that's with the knowledge that I'm more than likely not going to sign him in the off-season.

Moving Malkin means the other team is going to get the best player in the deal. You don't move a guy like Malkin for the effective return you got for moving Goligoski.

[newarenanow]

Good post slappy. And like I said before, it's not that I don't foresee Malkin re-signing with the Penguins. Rather, I think people are using the wrong arguments for suggesting that (team/city loyalty, Gene being a good guy, etc).

I don't think it's a loyalty thing. I think he just plain ole likes it.

[slappybrown]

Good post slappy. And like I said before, it's not that I don't foresee Malkin re-signing with the Penguins. Rather, I think people are using the wrong arguments for suggesting that (team/city loyalty, Gene being a good guy, etc).

Yea, I think the best "soft" factor in favor of hiim re-signing is that if he gets an 11mm dollar deal somewhere else, I doubt its with a very good team. If we feel a cap squeeze with both him and Sid on the books at 8/7-10 per, then its only worse somewhere else if he's at 11 or 12mm a year, and he's not playing with Sid/Neal, both of whom will be here for nearly duration of his new deal. I don't pretend to "know" Malkin, but I feel comfortable saying he gives a **** and wants to win. Agree that the whole "BUT HE HEARTS PGH" is probably overblown and something we can't truly know.

[tfrizz]

Someone mentioned St. Louis as a destination. Soooooooooo

Oshie, Perron, and a 1st for Malkin and Dupuis(if he comes back) yeah, no, something better? Backes is under a NTC, I really like Oshie anyway. Physical grinding type of scoring line Center, perfect for Bylsma's system.

If Shero were to make any deal with the Blues, I'd be sorely disappointed if Dmitrij Jaskin wasn't coming back.

[slappybrown]

Oshie/Perron/1st for Malkin (AND Dupuis no less) would lead to riots in the streets. We can do better.

[tfrizz]

Malkin's not going anywhere and will be re-signed for a few reasons, the most important being somewhere around 9-10 million in guaranteed dollars that he will never see if he signs somewhere else. The best he can do is a seven-year deal somewhere else versus an eight-year deal here. Unless he makes up that figure somewhere else -- where they'd have to add around 1.2mm or so onto each year -- it makes no economic sense for this enigmatic, greedy, lackadaisacal Eurotrash Russian to sign anywhere else.

Carrying two cap hits between 8.7-10 over 8 years isn't as bad as it sounds, particularly with a cap guaranteed never to go below ~65mm. Its also comparable to what some other teams have done if a bit higher, and Mirtle's cap projections indicate that the by the end of the CBA we could be looking at a 90mm ceiling ( http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/h ... le7029575/ ).

Sid's already acknowledged that Malkin will likely have a higher cap figure than he will, simply because of the fact that you can't do a 12-year deal any longer. If I had to guess, I'd say 8 years, 78 million, coming at 9.75. To compare, if you're another team, that same contract is 7 years, 78 million, for a 11.15 cap hit. As far as I know, no one has ever hit a higher AAV than Ovechkin's 9.5mm. I find it hard to believe that after the lockout, and with the rules in place to prevent owners from committing economic suicide, you'd see someone willing to do a new non-circumvention deal at 11mm plus.

I sign him if he's anywhere between 8.7-10.

If you use Mirtle's projection of a $64.3-mil cap for the 2014-15 season, and start off with Malkin @ $9.5-mil and Letang @ $5.5-mil, this is how things would look:

<vacant> - Crosby (8.700) - Bennett (0.900)
<vacant> - Malkin (9.500) - Neal (5.000)
<vacant> - <vacant> - <vacant>
<vacant> - <vacant> - <vacant>
<vacant>

Martin (5.000) - Letang (5.500)
<vacant> - <vacant>
<vacant> - <vacant>
<vacant>

Fleury (5.000)
<vacant>

Salary Cap: 64.300
Cap Space Committed: 39.600
Remaining Cap Space: 24.700
Open Roster Spots: 15



Shero will likely have to go hunting for bargain basement 3rd/4th liners and 3rd pairing guys at or around league minimum.

[Pens Fan Since 1970]

Someone mentioned St. Louis as a destination. Soooooooooo

Oshie, Perron, and a 1st for Malkin and Dupuis(if he comes back) yeah, no, something better? Backes is under a NTC, I really like Oshie anyway. Physical grinding type of scoring line Center, perfect for Bylsma's system.

If Shero were to make any deal with the Blues, I'd be sorely disappointed if Dmitrij Jaskin wasn't coming back.

Maybe the Blues Jaskin price is too steep.

[slappybrown]

Agreed. It reduces your margin for error with respect to your lower lines. But if my options are (1) Trade Malkin for less than he's worth (and its impossible to get equal value) or (2) operate on a razor's edge/rely on rookies for my energy guys/third pairings, I don't see that as much of a "choice." #2 every time.

[columbia]

Please, let's limit the terrible puns to the Malkin Skates thread.

Spoiler:

Where that one would really rate.

[Idoit40fans]

Someone mentioned St. Louis as a destination. Soooooooooo

Oshie, Perron, and a 1st for Malkin and Dupuis(if he comes back) yeah, no, something better? Backes is under a NTC, I really like Oshie anyway. Physical grinding type of scoring line Center, perfect for Bylsma's system.

If Shero were to make any deal with the Blues, I'd be sorely disappointed if Dmitrij Jaskin wasn't coming back.

Maybe the Blues Jaskin price is too steep.

Idoit40fans likes this

[no name]

I don't think you can use Crosbys deal as a guide line for Genos. Both will be written under 2 different CBAs. You kinda got to go in with feelers and see how Geno feels about the numbers.

Hopefully Geno would be happy with 9 mill a season, even though he very well could get upwards to 10 maybe 11 elsewhere.

[Pitts]

Maybe the Blues Jaskin price is too steep.

Niiiiice. I approve of this response.

[Steve Dave]

Just found a quote by Shero:

"For a player of this magnitude and what he's accomplished in the league, for the [cap hit] to remain the same is very important," Shero said.

Not just because it holds down the team's expenses but because, as Shero confirmed, it sets the ceiling on the average annual value of contracts for all players in the organization.

That means nobody -- not big-ticket free agents such as Zach Parise and Ryan Suter that the Penguins are expected to pursue Sunday, and not homegrown talents such as Evgeni Malkin -- will draw an average salary higher than Crosby's.

http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/spo ... ct-642475/

So, it's 8.7/yr for Malkin or the highway?