You're the GM 2013-14, 2014-15

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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby Steve Dave on Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:18 pm

Even tho Martin has had a great season, he and his cap hit if 5.0 may have be dealt in a trade to make room for Iginla, Dupuis, Murray.

Dupuis Crosby Iginla
Kunitz Malkin Neal
Jokinen Sutter Bennett
Glass Vitale Sill?
Jeffrey

Despres Letang
Niskanen Orpik
Murray Engelland
Bortuzzo

Fleury
Vokoun


Not sure if that is feasable. Would rather re-sign Morrow and trade Jokinen.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby MRandall25 on Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:31 pm

That defense looks shaky.

I'd like to think we've seen enough from Paul Martin this year to necessitate him staying with this team.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby Stevens25 on Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:46 pm

According to capgeek, Jukkinen's cap hit is only 2.1 million for this year and next year

http://capgeek.com/penguins

Did carolina agree to eat 900,000 a year cap hit, because his overall cap hit is still 3 million?

Is this a thing you can do now because of the new CBA? If so, it will really benefit great GM's when making trades.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby mikey287 on Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:50 pm

Yes at the last post.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:59 pm

There are a few issues that would need to be determined before I could make my decisions:

1. Need to see how everyone performs in the playoffs.
2. Need to have a better understanding of what the 2014-2015 salary cap will be, as that is actually more important.

For #1, if the Pens win the cup or have a deep run, and the new players have an impact, then I would be inclined to try and keep most of the players here for next season.
For #2, I have been doing some research on projected cap for future years. I've sent tweets to capgeek and NHL Agent Allan Walsh, but the best info I have found to date is the following article from James Mirtle: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/how-the-nhls-salary-cap-could-hit-90-million/article7029575/

If his assumptions are correct, then 2013-2014 AND 2014-2015 will most likely both have the 64.3mil cap, which is not good for the Penguins. Also, if you are looking to do this very detailed http://www.capgeek.com/penguins/cap-calculator/ is a great tool that lets you adjust salary, sign players, and see the affect on the cap.

Taking a step by step approach, there are really 4 items that need to be considered:
1. The increase in salary for Malkin and Letang for 2014-2015 and beyond.
2. Jarome Iginla
3. Pascal Dupuis
4. Morrow/Cooke

Up first, Malkin/Letang contracts. I hear a lot about Malkin wanting/looking/deserves 10mil+. I don't see it. His injury history, and more important, wild production swings, can't justify me giving him a huge raise. Malkin gets offered 8.7mil again, and a max of 9mil. 8 years, 9mil is my offer to Malkin. For Letang, I'm using Erik Karlsson as my baseline, 7 years at 6.5mil per season. That adds 3.3mil in salary for 2014-2015, which may have same 64.3mil salary cap as 2013-2014. Something to keep in mind.

Jarome Iginla. Does he truly want to stay? If yes, he needs to come down in contract considerably. I think the Max pens could go would be 4mil a season for 2 years. If he signs, it is the end of Pascal Dupuis in Pittsburgh. If he doesn't, the Pens look to retain Dupuis for 3mil or less for 2 years.

Matt Cooke or Brendan Morrow. Both 34 (Cooke will be 35 before season starts). Both play a gritty game, but I think Morrow has more upside. I offer Morrow 2 years at 2.5mil.

While not a good skater by any means, Doug Murray has a much needed physical presence. Resign him for 1 year at 2.8mil.

Time to free up some money and regain some draft picks. I ship Paul Martin and the rights to Tyler Kennedy to Edmonton for a 1st or 2nd rounder (not good at estimating the return), provided Martin approves the trade. If not, I trade them out seperately before the draft to get some picks. Worst case, I don't qualify Tyler Kennedy.

I also sign Jerred Smithson, UFA, from Edmonton to help 4th line. Tall, good on PK, hits, blocks shots. 3 years, 850K.

I do not resign Adams, Dupuis (unless I can't sign Iginla), Cooke, Eaton, trade Martin and Kennedy to free up room and get back some draft picks. My lines look like this, with 1.2mil in space still available

FORWARDS
Chris Kunitz ($3.725m) / Sidney Crosby ($8.700m) / Jarome Iginla ($4.000m)
James Neal ($5.000m) / Evgeni Malkin ($8.700m) / Beau Bennett ($0.900m)
Jussi Jokinen ($2.100m) / Brandon Sutter ($2.067m) / Brenden Morrow ($2.500m)
Tanner Glass ($1.100m) / Jerred Smithson ($0.850m) / Joe Vitale ($0.550m)
Dustin Jeffrey ($0.688m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Douglas Murray ($2.750m) / Brooks Orpik ($3.750m)
Kris Letang ($3.500m) / Matt Niskanen ($2.300m)
Simon Despres ($0.840m) / Deryk Engelland ($0.567m)
Robert Bortuzzo ($0.578m) /
GOALTENDERS
Marc-Andre Fleury ($5.000m)
Tomas Vokoun ($2.000m)
Eric Hartzell ($0.874m)
------
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,087,458; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (24-man roster): $1,212,542
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:04 pm

MRandall25 wrote:That defense looks shaky.

I'd like to think we've seen enough from Paul Martin this year to necessitate him staying with this team.


Definitely Martin has earned the right to stay, but his salary is prohibitive moving forward. If you have to pick between moving Martin, or keeping Letang, which would you choose? If you have to pick between moving Martin, or losing Iginla/Dupuis or both, what would you choose?

If the defense is killing them, Shero makes a move during the season or at the deadline to improve the defense. Orpik and Niskanen are free agents after next year, so in the next 1-3 years the Pens defense can expect a major transformation.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby MRandall25 on Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:05 pm

Just a reminder that no one is going to take on a $5 million contract (Paul Martin) unless they send some salary/cap hit back our way.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby Gaucho on Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:07 pm

Any scenario that includes trading Martin is a waste of time and effort.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby pens_CT on Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:10 pm

I'd move Orpik and/or Niskkanen long before I would move Paul Martin.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:11 pm

MRandall25 wrote:Just a reminder that no one is going to take on a $5 million contract (Paul Martin) unless they send some salary/cap hit back our way.


You are right in some respects, and Edmonton is probably a bad choice. But there will be teams that are looking to bring on a big, reasonable contract to stay above the cap floor. Ottawa has 19 players signed for next year and is just under the cap floor. Martin might make a nice replacement for Gonchar, who is UFA. The Islanders have 14 players signed for next year and are almost 10mil below the cap floor. If they lose Mark Streit to free agency, they will need a big contract to eat up space, not to mention some serious help on defense.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby Gaucho on Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:12 pm

FLPensFan wrote:If you have to pick between moving Martin, or losing Iginla/Dupuis or both, what would you choose?


I'd keep Martin, tbh. Keeping both Iginal and Dupuis would be nice, but hardly essential.

FLPensFan wrote:If the defense is killing them, Shero makes a move during the season or at the deadline to improve the defense.


Which would mean trading more 1st or 2nd round picks or assets like Harrington, Maata, etc.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:14 pm

pens_CT wrote:I'd move Orpik and/or Niskkanen long before I would move Paul Martin.


Might be inclined to agree with you there. Opens up almost as much cap space, and Orpik is UFA at the end of next season. The defense would be better with Martin over Orpik.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby BigMcK on Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:31 pm

I develop a plan. The first step, evaluate coaching and training staff to ensure the direction that I, as GM, wish for the team to go, that my staff is competent enough to do the work and will support the direction.

Second, evaluate the current players as to their role in the plan. If there are concerns regarding how a player's attitude is, or if the player is injury-prone, address those quickly.

Third, evaluate upcoming RFA'a, FA's and players that would help on this team and move accordingly. At some point, you need fresh water in the pool so it doesn't stagnate.

Plan the work / work the plan? Yes, before spending a dollar.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby PhantomJB93 on Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:38 pm

I don't want to go through the financial aspects of it all but my top priority would be Geno, then Letang, then Iginla, Dupuis, Murray, in that order. Any other free agents that could be kept after that would just be gravy.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby Fire0nice228 on Wed Apr 24, 2013 2:09 pm

Depth wins championships and makes good teams great.. the NYR traded all their depth and heart away for top end talent and they're a worse team because of it.. IMO if someone like Iggy has to walk in order to obtain/retain a few of the better depth guys on the team or available, so be it. The only reason the Pens are as stacked as they are is because of Jordan Staal and ZM, and Shero knew he'd have the space to do whatever he wanted FOR ONE SEASON.

Not saying I'm good with just letting Geno walk, but if Iggy leaves in order to retain Geno and some of the good depth.. I'd be okay with that I think. I dont want to see a stacked top 6, ship out Martin/Orpik and have the defense relying on Niskanen in a top 4 where he has been very shaky in that situation and Engo and Bortuzzo.. All that top end talent means nothing if the defense can't get them the puck, and Engo Bort Murray arn't exactly the best in the league at that.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby Idoit40fans on Wed Apr 24, 2013 2:13 pm

If its Martin or Iginla, I'll take Martin. I think he's overpaid, but he has been very good this year and I have confidence that it will continue next year. If he continues like he did this year, the overpayment is minor, certainly not crippling.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby Nizzy on Wed Apr 24, 2013 2:21 pm

@ Steve Dave, In my personal opinion from what I've seen...I don't think Niskanen is now, and might ever be a top 4 defenseman. You can plug him in for a game. However he constantly starts to fail once he gets consistent top 4 duties. It happened in Dallas as well.

@ FLpensfan, wow great post. Thanks
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby Pitt87 on Wed Apr 24, 2013 2:37 pm

Beveridge wrote:I don't understand the constant hate piled on Malkin. It belongs in the irrational thread in NHR.

Is it because we expect crosby/malkin to play out like lemiux/jagr so we better just dump him now.

I know it's a vocal minority, but luckily the only way Pens let Malkin go is if he doesn't want to be in Pittsburgh.


There is a legitimate possibility that we can no longer afford the two best NHL players under the new cap, and its a practical certainty that we won't be able to afford both Letang and Malkin next summer, especially with Kunitz, Orpik and Nisky up at the same time. Some of those decisions will be forced by the cap.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby Beveridge on Wed Apr 24, 2013 2:40 pm

So 2 guys coming into their prime years vs 2 guys at the end of their's plus nisky.

I'm not saying we have to resign malkin and letang (I think we should) but I would like to think I know shero well enough that it's at the top of his to-do list and is already 5 years ahead in cap planning (despite not knowing what that cap might be).
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby Idoit40fans on Wed Apr 24, 2013 2:52 pm

Yeah, and more importantly, the 2 guys coming into their prime are already better than the others.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby Nizzy on Wed Apr 24, 2013 2:55 pm

The Story of Evgeni Malkin will end like this:

July of 2013, he will sign an 8-year, 71 Million dollar contract. 71 being significant by his jersey number. This turns out to be 8.875 per year. He will be honored to be the highest paid player on the team. Crosby won't care one bit. Malkin will go on to have additional great 100+ point seasons, hopefully more stanley cups. When his contract is over, he will be 36 years old. I think at that time he goes back to KHL to play for Magnitogorsk
Spoiler:
(yup had to google it)
to play for 3-4 more seasons and then retires. Jersey hangs up beside 66 a few years later.

Malkin is best friends with Sergei Gonchar. I don't know what Gonchar plans to do after his season is over, but I'm pretty sure he won't be living in Ottawa. Do they still live in PGH? Is Malkin still in Sarge's old house? A lot of Factors, but Malkin playing for another NHL team, isn't one of them. Shero will get that deal locked up. Malkin likes Crosby, thinks hes the best in the world, wants to continue to play with him. Malkin isn't Radulov, but I can see him gracefully leaving the NHL after his 8-year deal is up, at age 36 and going to Russia.

Mikey knows its true, he just doesn't ever give me credit for the 5% time that I'm right. 8-)
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby DesertPenguin on Wed Apr 24, 2013 2:56 pm

Real hard not to keep Martin after the season he had. Plus, it's not a Shero move. Ray asked him if he wanted a change of scenery somewhere else or if he wanted a chance to right the ship in Pittsburgh. He righted it. It's not like Shero to dump a guy after coming through on his commitment like that.

We have plenty of depth coming up on D, so cutting a D man to save cap space makes sense. It's just real hard to part with any of them. The guy who is most expendable next season is Orpik, given that Dumoulin will be ready and Harrington may be as well. Douglas Murray has also taken over for Brooksie as the physical presence at the blue line. I just can't bring myself to cut one of the true leaders in the lockerroom and especially on defense. I'd like to give him one more season and then let him walk the season after. The only other guy making appreciable money is Niskanen, and maybe he goes, but its tough to move a guy with that kind of contract that fits Penguins hockey so well.

I think you can keep one, maybe two of Iginla, Morrow and Jokinen. A lot of that depends on what they want in their next contract though. In the end, Ray Shero will not make any deals that jeopardize his ability to sign Geno and Letang.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby RxBandit66 on Wed Apr 24, 2013 2:59 pm

Honestly I'd consider keeping Martin and trading Niskanen. Maybe I'm missing something, but he just seems shaky to me defensively. At some point, the young defensemen will have to play. I think Bortuzzo/Murray would be a nice pair for next year, and Letang/Despres would be good also. Maybe go with Orpik/Martin for one more year and move Niskanen.

I love Dupuis but I think he has priced himself out of Pittsburgh. At his age, this is his last big chance to cash in, and he has to take it. No way I bring back Cooke or Kennedy. Even if they have huge playoffs, it will only increase their demands. Engelland would also be expendable, but maybe keep him or Eaton for depth? But moving Niskanen would almost cover Letang's raise. Jokinen is so versatile, and with Sid & Geno's propensity for getting injured, it will help to have another center not named Dustin Jeffrey around who can fill in for those guys.

Kunitz-Crosby-Iginla
Bennett-Malkin-Neal
Jokinen-Sutter-Morrow
Glass-Vitale-Adams

Orpik-Martin
Letang-Despres
Murray-Bortuzzo
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby Nizzy on Wed Apr 24, 2013 3:08 pm

Hey RxBandit66,

Great post. Can I make one comment? Craig Adams, per his Wiki turns 36 in 2 days. I mean, if we have a top ranked PK, go for it. We don't ... I just don't see the point in keeping him around. I think we can go younger, someone more hungrier for the 4th line.
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Re: You're the GM 2013-14

Postby thehockeyguru on Wed Apr 24, 2013 3:12 pm

I know I am going to catch some flak for this, but my #1 prioirty would be to ask around and see what I could get for Malkin.
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