Frustrating speculation

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Frustrating speculation

Postby André on Wed Aug 20, 2008 2:04 pm

Yes, this is just what the thread title says, and also kind of silly. It's late August though, there's not much to talk about.

A discussion about the Pens top six depth started in the Shanahan thread and Henry Hank pointed out one can't really expect four talented scorers for Sid and Malkin, and come to think about it Satan, Sykora, Staal (I see him getting a shot at wing) and perhaps Fedetenko is not too shabby as compliment four the two big guys.

It got me thinking though about some of the UFA signings this summer.

Solid UFA signings:
Bertuzzi at 1.95
Williams at 2.2
Vrbata at 3
Näslund at 4
Tucker at 2.25
Stillman at 3.5
Demitra at 4

Bertuzzi, Williams and Näslund would've cost 8.15 mil. Satan, Fedetenko and Cooke cost 6.95 mil.

Instead of say:

Staal - Crosby - Satan
Fedetenko - Malkin - Sykora
Pesonen - Talbot - Dupuis
Cooke - Beech/Kennedy - Godard/Kennedy

Pens could for 1.2 mil more have had:

Bertuzzi - Crosby - Näslund
Williams - Malkin - Sykora
Talbot - Staal - Dupuis
Pesonen - Beech - Kennedy

Godard
(Not all players in the right position but you get the picture)

Sillly speculation, yes, as we don't know what made different guys sign where. But still, I wouldn't have mind that second lineup.

And before I hear Bertuzzi and Näslund are washed up let me remind me Bertuzzi's production last season was more impressive than Satan's, and that at almost half the price. And Näslund still got wheels and scored 25 without a real center.

Williams was a steal imo. 2.2 for a 27 year old last year scoring 30 points in 37 games. Why the hell did he sign with Atlanta?

EDIT: I got the Williams all mixed up. Ignore the part about him :D

This thread is both useless and frustrating. But what they hey, again, it's late August. That said I don't mind Satan and Fedetenko. Things could've looked better though.
Last edited by André on Wed Aug 20, 2008 4:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby JoseCuervo on Wed Aug 20, 2008 2:41 pm

Only people I like at their respective pricing is bertuzzi, williams, and vrbata.

Problem is vrbata signed early with tampa while we were waiting for hossa.

Williams was obviously looking for more money than 2.2. I have no doubt the pens looked his way, but after seeing a higher price, we opted for more security with fedko. His top six role is also coming into question at this point.

Bertuzzi is bertuzzi. He's cursed. His career ended when he assaulted moore. He's had some injury problems lately too.

Satan is definitely nothing to look over. He was producing fairly well on an awful islander's team and cooke was needed for grit.
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Postby Corvidae on Wed Aug 20, 2008 2:52 pm

Jake wrote:Bertuzzi, Williams, Näslund or Satan, Fedetenko, Cooke

Don't see either group as unanimously better than the other.


Naslund and Williams beat Fedo and Satan in pure skill but Fedo is a much harder worker than either of them. Meh.
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Postby mikey287 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 3:20 pm

I'd prefer Vrbata at his salary over Satan at his...
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Postby André on Wed Aug 20, 2008 3:29 pm

JoseCuervo wrote:Williams was obviously looking for more money than 2.2. I have no doubt the pens looked his way, but after seeing a higher price, we opted for more security with fedko. His top six role is also coming into question at this point.


Williams numbers over the last three years:

31 goals 76 points
33 goals 67 point
9 goals 30 points (in 37 games).

You make it sound like he's 37 and not 27. What makes you say his top six role is coming into question? On the Pens he'd have to beat out the likes of Fedenteko, Dupuis or Staal in order to be top six.

It's weird he signed for 2.2 considering what other players got.
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Postby JoseCuervo on Wed Aug 20, 2008 3:37 pm

André wrote:
JoseCuervo wrote:Williams was obviously looking for more money than 2.2. I have no doubt the pens looked his way, but after seeing a higher price, we opted for more security with fedko. His top six role is also coming into question at this point.


Williams numbers over the last three years:

31 goals 76 points
33 goals 67 point
9 goals 30 points (in 37 games).

You make it sound like he's 37 and not 27. What makes you say his top six role is coming into question? On the Pens he'd have to beat out the likes of Fedenteko, Dupuis or Staal in order to be top six.

It's weird he signed for 2.2 considering what other players got.


Yea, I guess he just wasn't really that impressive on the blackhawks last year despite playing only 37 games. I was too busy watching Kane and Toews, my bad. He does have good numbers.

I'm pretty sure he was looking to make more than 2.2, then after everybody decided they didn't need him at his price and set their rosters he was SOL. I think he took a cheaper 1 yr deal to show off his talent with Atlanta then try to cash big next off season.
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Postby André on Wed Aug 20, 2008 3:41 pm

Jake wrote:Bertuzzi, Williams, Näslund or Satan, Fedetenko, Cooke

Don't see either group as unanimously better than the other.


Ooook.

Bertuzzi outproduced Satan while being five times more of a physical presence. That at half Satan's price.

Williams is not soft and alot better than Fedetenko. He's good for 30 goals and 70 points and that's whitout Sid or Malkin. When he won the Stanley Cup he scored 7 goals and 19 points in those playoffs. He's a recent All Star, and he cost LESS than Fedetenko this summer.

And for Näslund vs Cooke...well let's just not go there. Especially when looking at what the Pens' needs were early this summer.

Only a homer would not see the first trio as better than the second. Had that second lineup been reality on July 2 we'd all have pissed our pants and celebrated.

That said I feel weird arging in this way. I of course hope Satan and Fedetenko does great with the Pens and I'm sure they can. Don't know why I brought this up...again it is nothing but frustrating :P

Edit: My apologies for calling you a homer Jake. I got the Williamses all mixed up :) I'd still call the first trio better but it's alot closer for sure.
Last edited by André on Wed Aug 20, 2008 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby KG on Wed Aug 20, 2008 4:04 pm

André wrote:
JoseCuervo wrote:Williams was obviously looking for more money than 2.2. I have no doubt the pens looked his way, but after seeing a higher price, we opted for more security with fedko. His top six role is also coming into question at this point.


Williams numbers over the last three years:

31 goals 76 points
33 goals 67 point
9 goals 30 points (in 37 games).

You make it sound like he's 37 and not 27. What makes you say his top six role is coming into question? On the Pens he'd have to beat out the likes of Fedenteko, Dupuis or Staal in order to be top six.

It's weird he signed for 2.2 considering what other players got.


That's the wrong Williams...This is the Williams Atlanta signed...http://tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/bio/?id ... -thrashers

I did the same thing a while back...Those are Justin Williams of the Canes stats. Jason Williams Atlanta signed, is not nearly the type of player Justin is...
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Postby Henry Hank on Wed Aug 20, 2008 4:05 pm

You're thinking of the wrong J. Williams. Justin Williams is the one putting up 30 goal seasons. He was not the UFA signed by Atlanta. Jason Williams had seasons of 13, 15, and 21 goals the last three seasons. He's not very good.

The trio the Pens signed is better than the one you propose. I'd take Naslund over Satan, but Naslund required an extra year to sign and ultimately you'd probably get the same production out of either. Naslund just seems to be a little safer bet to get there but I see no reason to believe Satan won't put up Sykora-like numbers.

Fedotenko is far preferable to Bertuzzi. Bertuzzi is a shadow of what he once was and now he's become pretty injury-prone. I'll take the guy you can count on being in the lineup. There's a reason Bertuzzi just got bought out.

Cooke makes more sense than Williams because he fills a role that was vacated. Williams is a top sixer on a bad team. The Pens had no need for someone like that and someone like Cooke makes more sense given what the Pens' needs were.

I can't fault Shero at all for the moves he made. He successfully got guys that can replace most of what they lost in Malone and Ruutu at lower prices and lower terms. Godard isn't Laraque but again he fills the most needed aspect of Laraque's game at half the price. Satan isn't even close to Hossa, but he still provides a good chunk of the potential offense lost and I suspect the re-emergence of Staal will take care of the rest, both offensively and defensively.
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Postby André on Wed Aug 20, 2008 4:14 pm

Henry Hank wrote:You're thinking of the wrong J. Williams. Justin Williams is the one putting up 30 goal seasons. He was not the UFA signed by Atlanta. Jason Williams had seasons of 13, 15, and 21 goals the last three seasons. He's not very good.

The trio the Pens signed is better than the one you propose. I'd take Naslund over Satan, but Naslund required an extra year to sign and ultimately you'd probably get the same production out of either. Naslund just seems to be a little safer bet to get there but I see no reason to believe Satan won't put up Sykora-like numbers.

Fedotenko is far preferable to Bertuzzi. Bertuzzi is a shadow of what he once was and now he's become pretty injury-prone. I'll take the guy you can count on being in the lineup. There's a reason Bertuzzi just got bought out.

Cooke makes more sense than Williams because he fills a role that was vacated. Williams is a top sixer on a bad team. The Pens had no need for someone like that and someone like Cooke makes more sense given what the Pens' needs were.

I can't fault Shero at all for the moves he made. He successfully got guys that can replace most of what they lost in Malone and Ruutu at lower prices and lower terms. Godard isn't Laraque but again he fills the most needed aspect of Laraque's game at half the price. Satan isn't even close to Hossa, but he still provides a good chunk of the potential offense lost and I suspect the re-emergence of Staal will take care of the rest, both offensively and defensively.


Shame on me for six weeks :oops:

I was thinking about (hence my ardent defense of him) the right Williams, the better one, but thought he was the one signing with Atlanta. The better one is still signed at 3.5 mil :)

I'd still take Bertuzzi over Fedetenko though, especially since he's cheaper. We're talking one year deals only, and his production last year was still very good. I really like the thought of a talented monster next to Sid and a pure sniper.

And again, I don't mind Satan and Fedetenko. Just felt like speculating.
Last edited by André on Wed Aug 20, 2008 4:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Kicksave on Wed Aug 20, 2008 4:19 pm

Kicksave wrote:I was playing with come numbers/predictions. I've some up with this so far....

Line One - Crosby (40), Satan (25)
Line Two - Fedotenko (20), Malkin (45), Sykora (25)
Line Three - Cooke (15), Staal (20), Dupuis (10)
Line Four - Kennedy (10), Talbot (10), Godard (1)

Wild cards: Can Pesonen come in and be the real deal and score 20+? Will they move Dupuis, Talbot or Cooke up to top line LW and raise their goal totals by 5-10(max)? Will they bring in someone like Shannahan in the twilight of his career or Bertuzzi who will probably put 20 or so over an entire season?

D Line One - Gonchar (15) - Orpik (1)
D Line Two - Whitney (10) - Letang (10)
D Line Three - Scuderi (1) - Gill (2) - Eaton (1)

Wild cards: Scuderi, Eaton and Orpik I gave fluke goals to. Gill can probably put up 2 or 3 just because of his immense shot (if it hits the net).

Without the presence of a top line LW, my predictions put the total goal output at 261 which would have been #2 in the league (tied with Ottawa and one behind Montreal). I tried to be as modest as possible but the offense is promising.


I posted this a while back. With these modest predictions, we're still pegged to be in the top 5 in the league in scoring. My biggest concern will be will they play with the same fire and passion for defense like they did throughout the playoffs.
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Postby JoseCuervo on Wed Aug 20, 2008 5:40 pm

JoseCuervo wrote:
André wrote:
JoseCuervo wrote:Williams was obviously looking for more money than 2.2. I have no doubt the pens looked his way, but after seeing a higher price, we opted for more security with fedko. His top six role is also coming into question at this point.


Williams numbers over the last three years:

31 goals 76 points
33 goals 67 point
9 goals 30 points (in 37 games).

You make it sound like he's 37 and not 27. What makes you say his top six role is coming into question? On the Pens he'd have to beat out the likes of Fedenteko, Dupuis or Staal in order to be top six.

It's weird he signed for 2.2 considering what other players got.


Yea, I guess he just wasn't really that impressive on the blackhawks last year despite playing only 37 games. I was too busy watching Kane and Toews, my bad. He does have good numbers.

I'm pretty sure he was looking to make more than 2.2, then after everybody decided they didn't need him at his price and set their rosters he was SOL. I think he took a cheaper 1 yr deal to show off his talent with Atlanta then try to cash big next off season.


I knew those numbers seemed too good...
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Postby DelPen on Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:07 pm

mikey287 wrote:I'd prefer Vrbata at his salary over Satan at his...


I'm sure you'll feel better when Satan scores 50 goals this year.
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Postby mikey287 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:33 pm

DelPen wrote:
mikey287 wrote:I'd prefer Vrbata at his salary over Satan at his...


I'm sure you'll feel better when Satan scores 50 goals this year.


I'd be happy if Satan gets to 50 points this year...
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Postby Idoit40fans on Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:42 pm

mikey287 wrote:
DelPen wrote:
mikey287 wrote:I'd prefer Vrbata at his salary over Satan at his...


I'm sure you'll feel better when Satan scores 50 goals this year.


I'd be happy if Satan gets to 50 points this year...


Wow you are pretty easy to please. What are you're expectations for Crosby? 80 points?
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Postby Malkin0017 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:06 pm

Satan will have a career year!!!! You heard it here!!!! 31G 56A 87Pts
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Postby mikey287 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 10:38 pm

Idoit40fans wrote:
mikey287 wrote:
DelPen wrote:
mikey287 wrote:I'd prefer Vrbata at his salary over Satan at his...


I'm sure you'll feel better when Satan scores 50 goals this year.


I'd be happy if Satan gets to 50 points this year...


Wow you are pretty easy to please. What are you're expectations for Crosby? 80 points?


After seeing every Satan game the past three years as compared to what he did for the Buffalo Sabres in all those years, I'd be happy with average from Satan really...if he chips in some goals and doesn't undermine the team's gameplan that's good enough for me at this point...
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Postby Idoit40fans on Wed Aug 20, 2008 11:00 pm

I just really can't imagine him scoring less than 50 points when going from ~the worst offense in the league one year to one of the best offenses the next year.
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Postby mikey287 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 11:21 pm

Idoit40fans wrote:I just really can't imagine him scoring less than 50 points when going from ~the worst offense in the league one year to one of the best offenses the next year.


<--- Assumes the worst and hopes for the best...I'd like to believe and am firmly rooting for a 50 goal year...but I know going into it that there's no guarantee he bounces back...increased chance? Sure, we have the two best centers in the world...

I'm not even predicting him to get 50 points or anything like that...I'm just saying, let's just hope he's not a complete dud...
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Postby KG on Thu Aug 21, 2008 2:39 pm

I'll say Satan gets around 70 points 35-35...
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Postby newarenanow on Thu Aug 21, 2008 2:48 pm

It also takes two to agree to a contract. What if some of those guys didn't want to play here??
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Postby bhaw on Thu Aug 21, 2008 3:46 pm

I think the biggest advantage we have with the current line up vs your 2nd line up is the flexibility next year.

Satan and Fedotenko got 1 year deals and Sykora is up. Had we signed the 2nd line up, we would not have gotten 1 year deals based on what they did sign.

This year's UFA market was incredibly weak once you got past Hossa. It led to players like Rolston and Naslund getting incredibly overpaid since they were the next best options. Next year the UFA field looks more promising (of course depending on who signs prior to July 1st). And instead of having to sit on the sidelines, Shero has the ability to be active thanks to the 1 year deals for marginally lesser players.

The other big thing is Staal. Problem is we don't know whether he is going to be the 2.5M player of last year or the 4+M player of his rookie year. If we commit too much salary to guys like Naslund, it may automatically push Staal out of our future plans. And regardless of how he plays, I would MUCH prefer Staal for the next several years over Naslund.
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Postby bhaw on Thu Aug 21, 2008 3:56 pm

Oh, and almost forgot about this part...

Satan wanted to play here. Naslund was on the market between multiple teams. Naslund would have been a bidding war with NY (which you can't win). Satan was simply agreeing to terms. Any team would be much happier to deal with a player who really wants to be there over someone who is happy playing for you as long as you are the highest bidder. Naslund was not that much better of an option to start bidding his price up.
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Postby André on Thu Aug 21, 2008 4:01 pm

newarenanow wrote:It also takes two to agree to a contract. What if some of those guys didn't want to play here??


Yeah I mentioned that. Impossible to know why who signed where. This was just speculation.
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Postby André on Thu Aug 21, 2008 4:07 pm

bhaw wrote:I think the biggest advantage we have with the current line up vs your 2nd line up is the flexibility next year.

Satan and Fedotenko got 1 year deals and Sykora is up. Had we signed the 2nd line up, we would not have gotten 1 year deals based on what they did sign.

This year's UFA market was incredibly weak once you got past Hossa. It led to players like Rolston and Naslund getting incredibly overpaid since they were the next best options. Next year the UFA field looks more promising (of course depending on who signs prior to July 1st). And instead of having to sit on the sidelines, Shero has the ability to be active thanks to the 1 year deals for marginally lesser players.

The other big thing is Staal. Problem is we don't know whether he is going to be the 2.5M player of last year or the 4+M player of his rookie year. If we commit too much salary to guys like Naslund, it may automatically push Staal out of our future plans. And regardless of how he plays, I would MUCH prefer Staal for the next several years over Naslund.


Näslund is incredbly overpaid at 4 mil? He's still got wheels and scored 25 without a real center. If he's incredibly overpaid there sure are some other insane contracts out there :)

Also, how you make the signing of him rule out a future for Staal with the Pens is funny. Fedetenko, Sydor, Gill and Sykora are still off the books next year.

Agree though on the flexibillity. Next summer could be tons of fun (hopefully the cap goes up again). Näslund for just another year wouldn't have made me cry though.
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