Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Forum for Pittsburgh Penguins-related messages.

Moderators: Three Stars, dagny, pfim, netwolf

Who would you keep on the roster if only 1 player can stay?

Sign Guentzel for 6M, trade Kessel at the 2019 draft.
22
96%
Keep Kessel, trade Guentzel at the 2019 draft
1
4%
 
Total votes : 23

Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby FLPensFan on Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:18 pm

With Dylan Larkin signing for 5 years with 6.1M AAV with less overall production than Guentzel......Jake is going to get paid. With Guentzel's point per game pace, as well as his astounding playoff scoring prowess and the current market, it's hard to imagine that Guentzel signs for anything less than 6M a year (and if he does, he's giving the Penguins a discount).

A question came up on Twitter, where someone said Guentzel wanting 6M likely sees him getting traded. I countered with the statement that, if Guentzel has a 60 point season this year, not only would he get 6M, but the Penguins would be wise to trade to open up room for Guentzel contract, rather than trading Jake.

To me, its a no brainer to keep the 24 year old player who may not have the overall top end production as Kessel, but has a more rounded game and a longer lifespan in the league.

So what say you? If the decision came down that Guentzel was going to get 6M, and the Penguins could only afford one of Guentzel or Kessel, which would you choose?
FLPensFan
AHL Hall of Famer
AHL Hall of Famer
 
Posts: 9,616
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 1:30 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Daniel on Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:31 pm

FLPensFan wrote:With Dylan Larkin signing for 5 years with 6.1M AAV with less overall production than Guentzel......Jake is going to get paid. With Guentzel's point per game pace, as well as his astounding playoff scoring prowess and the current market, it's hard to imagine that Guentzel signs for anything less than 6M a year (and if he does, he's giving the Penguins a discount).

A question came up on Twitter, where someone said Guentzel wanting 6M likely sees him getting traded. I countered with the statement that, if Guentzel has a 60 point season this year, not only would he get 6M, but the Penguins would be wise to trade to open up room for Guentzel contract, rather than trading Jake.

To me, its a no brainer to keep the 24 year old player who may not have the overall top end production as Kessel, but has a more rounded game and a longer lifespan in the league.

So what say you? If the decision came down that Guentzel was going to get 6M, and the Penguins could only afford one of Guentzel or Kessel, which would you choose?


I think it's a nobrainer to keep Jake. Like you said, he's a more well rounded player. But not only that, I think Jake is next generation untouchable after Sid/Geno retire (based on the current group). I won't say Kessel is a dime a dozen player, but I think Sprong will be able to replace what he does in the next few years. Who can replace Jake's all around game?
Daniel
AHL'er
AHL'er
 
Posts: 4,073
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 4:10 pm
Location: Fort Worth

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Great58 on Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:48 pm

Three more years of Phil or 6+ years of Jake, plus the return on trading Phil? I'd take Jake, no doubt.
Great58
AHL All-Star
AHL All-Star
 
Posts: 5,044
Joined: Tue Mar 15, 2011 8:56 pm
Location: On the blue line

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Pitt87 on Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:02 pm

Daniel wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:With Dylan Larkin signing for 5 years with 6.1M AAV with less overall production than Guentzel......Jake is going to get paid. With Guentzel's point per game pace, as well as his astounding playoff scoring prowess and the current market, it's hard to imagine that Guentzel signs for anything less than 6M a year (and if he does, he's giving the Penguins a discount).

A question came up on Twitter, where someone said Guentzel wanting 6M likely sees him getting traded. I countered with the statement that, if Guentzel has a 60 point season this year, not only would he get 6M, but the Penguins would be wise to trade to open up room for Guentzel contract, rather than trading Jake.

To me, its a no brainer to keep the 24 year old player who may not have the overall top end production as Kessel, but has a more rounded game and a longer lifespan in the league.

So what say you? If the decision came down that Guentzel was going to get 6M, and the Penguins could only afford one of Guentzel or Kessel, which would you choose?


I think it's a nobrainer to keep Jake. Like you said, he's a more well rounded player. But not only that, I think Jake is next generation untouchable after Sid/Geno retire (based on the current group). I won't say Kessel is a dime a dozen player, but I think Sprong will be able to replace what he does in the next few years. Who can replace Jake's all around game?


If Jake wasn't playing with Sid, could he score 30+ goals in this league?
Pitt87
AHL All-Star
AHL All-Star
 
Posts: 5,949
Joined: Tue Apr 28, 2009 11:33 am
Location: Admin wrote:Rooting for the Flyers is not allowed here. Seriously.

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Daniel on Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:08 pm

Pitt87 wrote:
Daniel wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:With Dylan Larkin signing for 5 years with 6.1M AAV with less overall production than Guentzel......Jake is going to get paid. With Guentzel's point per game pace, as well as his astounding playoff scoring prowess and the current market, it's hard to imagine that Guentzel signs for anything less than 6M a year (and if he does, he's giving the Penguins a discount).

A question came up on Twitter, where someone said Guentzel wanting 6M likely sees him getting traded. I countered with the statement that, if Guentzel has a 60 point season this year, not only would he get 6M, but the Penguins would be wise to trade to open up room for Guentzel contract, rather than trading Jake.

To me, its a no brainer to keep the 24 year old player who may not have the overall top end production as Kessel, but has a more rounded game and a longer lifespan in the league.

So what say you? If the decision came down that Guentzel was going to get 6M, and the Penguins could only afford one of Guentzel or Kessel, which would you choose?


I think it's a nobrainer to keep Jake. Like you said, he's a more well rounded player. But not only that, I think Jake is next generation untouchable after Sid/Geno retire (based on the current group). I won't say Kessel is a dime a dozen player, but I think Sprong will be able to replace what he does in the next few years. Who can replace Jake's all around game?


If Jake wasn't playing with Sid, could he score 30+ goals in this league?


I think so. Like any winger he'll need a good center, but I think he has the skill.
Daniel
AHL'er
AHL'er
 
Posts: 4,073
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 4:10 pm
Location: Fort Worth

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Jim on Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:17 pm

Option C, keep them both.

Guentzel+Hagelin ~ $5M
Guentzel 6M + WBS PK guy ~ $7M

The cap will probably go up $2M so it ends a wash.
Jim
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 16,464
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:18 pm
Location: Pittsburgh

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Great58 on Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:37 pm

Jim wrote:Option C, keep them both.

Guentzel+Hagelin ~ $5M
Guentzel 6M + WBS PK guy ~ $7M

The cap will probably go up $2M so it ends a wash.

Yes, I am not in the trade Kessel camp, and my preference would be to keep both, and as you point out, it can likely happen. But given the absolute nature of the question, I went with Jake if it were EITHER he or Phil that stayed.
Great58
AHL All-Star
AHL All-Star
 
Posts: 5,044
Joined: Tue Mar 15, 2011 8:56 pm
Location: On the blue line

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Pitt87 on Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:48 pm

Daniel wrote:
Pitt87 wrote:
Daniel wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:With Dylan Larkin signing for 5 years with 6.1M AAV with less overall production than Guentzel......Jake is going to get paid. With Guentzel's point per game pace, as well as his astounding playoff scoring prowess and the current market, it's hard to imagine that Guentzel signs for anything less than 6M a year (and if he does, he's giving the Penguins a discount).

A question came up on Twitter, where someone said Guentzel wanting 6M likely sees him getting traded. I countered with the statement that, if Guentzel has a 60 point season this year, not only would he get 6M, but the Penguins would be wise to trade to open up room for Guentzel contract, rather than trading Jake.

To me, its a no brainer to keep the 24 year old player who may not have the overall top end production as Kessel, but has a more rounded game and a longer lifespan in the league.

So what say you? If the decision came down that Guentzel was going to get 6M, and the Penguins could only afford one of Guentzel or Kessel, which would you choose?


I think it's a nobrainer to keep Jake. Like you said, he's a more well rounded player. But not only that, I think Jake is next generation untouchable after Sid/Geno retire (based on the current group). I won't say Kessel is a dime a dozen player, but I think Sprong will be able to replace what he does in the next few years. Who can replace Jake's all around game?


If Jake wasn't playing with Sid, could he score 30+ goals in this league?


I think so. Like any winger he'll need a good center, but I think he has the skill.


Agree, but I don't think he would have ever had the chance to play top minutes elsewhere. If the argument is production alone, no question, you trade 59 and keep 81. Kessel had 92 points last season and played mostly without our top 2 centers.

I don't know much about Dylan Larkin but I think the Wings are in a much different situation than we are. They could be very comparable players, but everything else equal, I don't think Jake is viewed as a guy to build around, at least not at this phase of his career. If Kessel was UFA right now, he'd get Tavares-type money.
Pitt87
AHL All-Star
AHL All-Star
 
Posts: 5,949
Joined: Tue Apr 28, 2009 11:33 am
Location: Admin wrote:Rooting for the Flyers is not allowed here. Seriously.

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby FLPensFan on Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:10 pm

The nature of the discussion was either or, no, keep both. I was shocked the first person I spoke to on this, who is pretty knowledgable on hockey matters, balked at moving Kessel over Jake.

I also do not think Guentzel is as married to Crosby as many seem to think. He and Crosby work well together, but Guentzel has had success with Malkin as well. He just hasn't had as much ice time with him. Recall, his first game, Guentzel scored both his goals on a line with Malkin and Kessel. Sheary showed very limited success with others. Guentzel had success with Malkin, but meshed well with Crosby too, and stuck there.
FLPensFan
AHL Hall of Famer
AHL Hall of Famer
 
Posts: 9,616
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 1:30 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Jim on Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:11 pm

Jake needs to prove he can do on his own. Jake at $6 but not being able to do on his own is not worth Kessel at $6.8
Jim
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 16,464
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:18 pm
Location: Pittsburgh

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Puck-Lurker on Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:36 pm

Jim wrote:Jake needs to prove he can do on his own. Jake at $6 but not being able to do on his own is not worth Kessel at $6.8

If he can't, he can be offered 3-4M along the lines of Sheary.

No sense losing either Guentzel or Kessel this year or next. You make room for Guentzel, hope ZAR works out well at LW and figure out things from there.

We'll be missing Hagelin more than the nay-sayers think when he goes, but I don't think there's a strong argument to keep him after this year. If he wants to stay on the cheap, I'd be in favour, but he'll get paid at least 4M again. His hands are complete concrete bricks, but his speed is still ridiculous. Someone will pay him and we won't keep him.
Puck-Lurker
AHL'er
AHL'er
 
Posts: 3,729
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2015 3:49 am
Location: Is apparently an annoying poster.

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Daniel on Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:21 pm

Pitt87 wrote:
Daniel wrote:
Pitt87 wrote:
Daniel wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:With Dylan Larkin signing for 5 years with 6.1M AAV with less overall production than Guentzel......Jake is going to get paid. With Guentzel's point per game pace, as well as his astounding playoff scoring prowess and the current market, it's hard to imagine that Guentzel signs for anything less than 6M a year (and if he does, he's giving the Penguins a discount).

A question came up on Twitter, where someone said Guentzel wanting 6M likely sees him getting traded. I countered with the statement that, if Guentzel has a 60 point season this year, not only would he get 6M, but the Penguins would be wise to trade to open up room for Guentzel contract, rather than trading Jake.

To me, its a no brainer to keep the 24 year old player who may not have the overall top end production as Kessel, but has a more rounded game and a longer lifespan in the league.

So what say you? If the decision came down that Guentzel was going to get 6M, and the Penguins could only afford one of Guentzel or Kessel, which would you choose?


I think it's a nobrainer to keep Jake. Like you said, he's a more well rounded player. But not only that, I think Jake is next generation untouchable after Sid/Geno retire (based on the current group). I won't say Kessel is a dime a dozen player, but I think Sprong will be able to replace what he does in the next few years. Who can replace Jake's all around game?


If Jake wasn't playing with Sid, could he score 30+ goals in this league?


I think so. Like any winger he'll need a good center, but I think he has the skill.


Agree, but I don't think he would have ever had the chance to play top minutes elsewhere. If the argument is production alone, no question, you trade 59 and keep 81. Kessel had 92 points last season and played mostly without our top 2 centers.

I don't know much about Dylan Larkin but I think the Wings are in a much different situation than we are. They could be very comparable players, but everything else equal, I don't think Jake is viewed as a guy to build around, at least not at this phase of his career. If Kessel was UFA right now, he'd get Tavares-type money.


Last year was a career year for Phil. He had almost twice the PP points than his norm and his points were 10 points higher than his previous highest, which was almost 10 years ago. I think Jake is trending upward and Phil has reached his pinnacle. Now, that doesn't mean Jake will rise as much as I think or that Phil won't stay at his pinnacle for longer than just one season, but I'd go with a rising asset over someone who is only going to trend downward.

Phil also had about 2 more minutes of ice time and on the 1st PP, which is the 2 minute difference just under 4 minutes for Phil and just under 2 minutes for Jake. I think the fact that Phil has 2 more minutes per game in a power play situation has to be taken into consideration when discussing points and projections.
Daniel
AHL'er
AHL'er
 
Posts: 4,073
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 4:10 pm
Location: Fort Worth

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby wondermoose on Sat Aug 11, 2018 2:38 pm

Larkin got $6m because Detroit couldn't afford to lose him. Considering Jake's situation, being behind Sid, Geno, Letang, and Phil, I could see a 2-3 year deal at $4-5 million before he gets that big offer.
wondermoose
AHL All-Star
AHL All-Star
 
Posts: 7,265
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 2:18 am

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby FLPensFan on Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:16 pm

wondermoose wrote:Larkin got $6m because Detroit couldn't afford to lose him. Considering Jake's situation, being behind Sid, Geno, Letang, and Phil, I could see a 2-3 year deal at $4-5 million before he gets that big offer.

While your statement about Larkin and Detroit is true, I do not believe that was the main driver for Larkin getting the $$ he did.

How would you explain the 4.45M that Christian Dvorak received?
---Guentzel had the same point output, 33 points in his first year that Dvorak did. Difference is, Guentzel did that in 40games, Dvorak in 78 games.
---2nd year, Guentzel scored 48 points in 82 games, Dvorak 37 points in 78 games.
---Dvorak hasn't played a single playoff game. Guentzel has played 42, and is better than a point per game average.

Heck, Ryan Spooner just got a 4M deal for 2 years and his numbers are similar to Guentzel, except Jake is much better goal scorer.
Kevin Hayes got a 1 year deal worth 5.175M, for mid 40's production 3 out of 4 years.
Don't even get me started on Tom Wilson's contract and how that will skew Guentzel's new deal.

I see no way possible Guetnzel's next deal doesn't AT LEAST start at 5M. If Rutherford signs Guentzel for more than 2 years for anything under 5M, than Rutherford is the real life **** Gandalf.
FLPensFan
AHL Hall of Famer
AHL Hall of Famer
 
Posts: 9,616
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 1:30 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Hatrick on Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:57 pm

I would choose keep both, it can certainly be done.

Before the most recent contracts I already thought he would be getting 6 as long as he has a decent season, and if he has a great season it would be even more. So if he gets a 6yr/6.5million contract that is an increase of almost six million over what he makes now. If the cap goes up 3million they would need to save another 3million elsewhere. If hagelin doesn't accept 2-2.5million then they can let him walk, if he does accept that then that is half of what they need to save. Then there is the fact their bottom two centers will be making combined over 5million so that is an extra million as they can replace one spot with blueger(or somebody else from WBS). All four RW are in place still, that leaves two more LW positions, plus an extra forward, and an extra defenseman as the only spots left they would need to sign for not that expensive to stay under the cap. None of those guys would really be set up for raises, maybe ZAR gets a slight raise, another WBS person should be able to replace Cullen. So its certainly doable(overpaying rust and possibly overpaying Johnson make it tougher to do than it should have been) even if he gets 6.5million.

IF I had to choose one or the other, I would prefer to keep guentzel and trade kessel and get a very large haul for kessel as well as open more cap room. But I think keeping both is more likely than having to choose one. Could even get guentzel on a slightly cheaper shorter term deal to give the team alittle more space for the next two or three years before giving him the big payday.
Hatrick
Junior 'A'
Junior 'A'
 
Posts: 179
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:48 pm

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby longtimefan on Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:29 pm

Bridge deals can be dangerous. It depends on how they feel about Guentzel's long term viability. If they're sold, JR has shown a willingness to go term, like Dumoulin. If not, he'll go shorter, like Sheary. Or even Schultz and Murray. Think about TB's situation with Kucherov. They got him on a 3 year bridge deal for less than $5M. Now it's time to pay up, to the tune of $9.5M starting next season. And he did them a favor. How much would he have gotten on an 8 yr deal three years ago? Which would have five years left? I'm sure it would have been a lot less. Pay him now, or pay him later.

The answer to the question in the real world isn't too difficult. Jake's 24, Phil's 31. It's the same answer as when Murray was chosen over Fleury. A 34 or 35 year old Phil probably won't be as valuable as a 27 or 28 year old Jake. However, if they do well this season, there's every reason to believe both will be on the roster next year. Salary won't be the reason if they aren't.
longtimefan
ECHL'er
ECHL'er
 
Posts: 1,508
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2007 7:33 pm

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby RisslingsMissingTeeth on Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:19 am

If Jake has a great year, I just don't think a bridge happens. Kessel has a skill set that I can't see aging well. There is already no hussle and that won't get better with age.
RisslingsMissingTeeth
ECHL'er
ECHL'er
 
Posts: 1,219
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2011 1:19 pm

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Jim on Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:11 pm

longtimefan wrote:Bridge deals can be dangerous. It depends on how they feel about Guentzel's long term viability. If they're sold, JR has shown a willingness to go term, like Dumoulin. If not, he'll go shorter, like Sheary. Or even Schultz and Murray. Think about TB's situation with Kucherov. They got him on a 3 year bridge deal for less than $5M. Now it's time to pay up, to the tune of $9.5M starting next season. And he did them a favor. How much would he have gotten on an 8 yr deal three years ago? Which would have five years left? I'm sure it would have been a lot less. Pay him now, or pay him later.

The answer to the question in the real world isn't too difficult. Jake's 24, Phil's 31. It's the same answer as when Murray was chosen over Fleury. A 34 or 35 year old Phil probably won't be as valuable as a 27 or 28 year old Jake. However, if they do well this season, there's every reason to believe both will be on the roster next year. Salary won't be the reason if they aren't.



Meh.

3x$5M + 8x9.5M, but sure that he is solid vs 8x$7.5, but rolling the dice.

At the end of 8 years, with the bridge you have given him $62.5M (assured that he was worth it), without the bridge you gave $60M (while rolling the dice). [3x$5+5x$9.5 vs 8x7.5]
At the end of that 8 years he is 30, with the bridge you have 3 more years at $9.5M, without the bridge he is a UFA... what will be the going rate 6 UFA-sets from now for him?

I do not see any downside for the team, even with the higher extension started next year.
Jim
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 16,464
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:18 pm
Location: Pittsburgh

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:31 pm

Seems Guentzel is focused this offseason. Also says he put on 10lbs this summer, which was much needed. I still caution about Da Beauty League results, because if you look at the rosters......the goalies are all pretty much unknowns. Alex Stalock is probably the best known goalie in that league. It's also 3 on 3 I believe, so it's not a goalie favorable league. There are two goalies under 2.00 GAA (with only 1 or 2 games played). All the other goalies are 4.00 GAA or above in 2-4 games played.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/penguins/2018/08/13/jake-guentzel-penguins-minnesota-da-beauty-league-mike-sullivan/stories/201808090145
FLPensFan
AHL Hall of Famer
AHL Hall of Famer
 
Posts: 9,616
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 1:30 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby no name on Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:35 pm

With Guentzel and Murray needed extensions Kessel might be a cap casualty next season. Hard reality of the salary cap age. I would prefer a Kessel trade as you can get an asset back in the deal.

In the perfect world you keep both and that would be my preference.
no name
AHL Hall of Famer
AHL Hall of Famer
 
Posts: 7,988
Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2007 4:19 pm

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:05 pm

no name wrote:With Guentzel and Murray needed extensions Kessel might be a cap casualty next season. Hard reality of the salary cap age. I would prefer a Kessel trade as you can get an asset back in the deal.

In the perfect world you keep both and that would be my preference.

Just to take a peak ahead, I ran this through CapFriendly Armchair GM to get some ideas on space available.
Assumed a cap of 82M for the 2019-2020 season:

- With 82M in cap hit, as Penguins stand today, they would go into 19-20 season with 65.37M tied up in 14 players, and have 16.63M in cap space available.
- The big UFA/RFAs are Guentzel, Brassard, Sheahan, and Hagelin. Penguins are good on defense next year, with projected top 6 all signed through 2019-2020 season. Schultz is UFA in 2020-2021.
- The questions marks will be, do they bring back Hagelin, does Brassard fit in enough to bring him back, and how much does Jake get.

- For starters I looked at the RFAs.....I gave Guentzel a conservative 4 year deal worth 5.5M AAV.
- I added ZAR for a 2 year, 800K AAV deal.
- I added Blueger for 2 years, 750KAAV deal.

That part leaves 9.579M left in cap space. The biggest decision is Sheahan or Brassard. If Brassard puts up another 50 point season, he will be one of the top 5 UFA centers on the market next year, with guys like Seguin, E. Staal, Anders Lee, Matt Duchene. There's no reason for Brassard to take a discount when he's a top guy on the market and his play hasn't fallen off. I can't see the Penguins keeping him.

- Assuming Sheahan puts up 30-40 points again this season, Penguins resign Sheahan for 3 years with 3M AAV.
- Do you bring back Carl Hagelin for 2 more years at 4M per year? That would be tough to do. But Hagelin's speed and defense intangibles make him valuable around the league (Tom Wilson's 5.1M shows teams pay for that stuff over production). Penguins would need to get Hagelin for about 3.5M to make it work........as that would leave 3M in space to sign a 13F, 7D, and a backup goalie.
- I sign Hagelin at 3.75M after realizing Jarry wasn't listed on the team, and he is still under contract next year. That leaves 2.1M for a 13F and 7th D-man, and a roster that looks like this:

Guentzel-Crosby-Sprong
Hagelin-Malkin-Hornqvist
ZAR-Sheahan-Kessel
Simon-Blueger-Rust
13F

Dumo-Letang
Maatta-Schultz
Johnson-Oleksiak
7D

Murray
Jarry

Yay, it all fits......but, is that a strong team? 3rd year in a row LW is weak. Sheahan is a step down from Brassard. With prices what they are right now, is 3.75M used on Hagelin enough to get a better LW that improves that depth there (the answer is no)?

So, to answer the question, yeah, in theory the money works out. But is the team you are fielding the same or improved over the previous year? That, I'm not so sure of. I really believe moving Letang (very doubtful), Schultz, or Kessel is going to be needed to improve this team beyond this season. It is also going to depend on Sprong's impact this year, and how well guys like Sheahan and Blueger play this year.
FLPensFan
AHL Hall of Famer
AHL Hall of Famer
 
Posts: 9,616
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 1:30 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Ericf on Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:29 pm

I really don't see us being able to field Cup-competitive teams in the future without trading either Kessel or Letang. As cheap younger players like Jake and Rust grow into larger contracts, we need cheaper players to replace them--not established, more expensive players. In addition, there has never been a team with more than 4 players at age 30+ in significant roles on the roster that has won the SC...just think about that...we have 7 now....

no matter how great Hags and Brass are this year, I think we can't re-sign them if we want to replenish for the remainder of the Sid and Geno years....to get those younger players (since our farm system does not have a ready supply of any more NHL-ready players), we need to trade Phil or Letang, both over 30 players, for younger players aged 25 or younger...

that's how I see it
Ericf
Junior 'A'
Junior 'A'
 
Posts: 54
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2016 7:32 pm

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Hatrick on Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:39 pm

Jim wrote:
longtimefan wrote:Bridge deals can be dangerous. It depends on how they feel about Guentzel's long term viability. If they're sold, JR has shown a willingness to go term, like Dumoulin. If not, he'll go shorter, like Sheary. Or even Schultz and Murray. Think about TB's situation with Kucherov. They got him on a 3 year bridge deal for less than $5M. Now it's time to pay up, to the tune of $9.5M starting next season. And he did them a favor. How much would he have gotten on an 8 yr deal three years ago? Which would have five years left? I'm sure it would have been a lot less. Pay him now, or pay him later.

The answer to the question in the real world isn't too difficult. Jake's 24, Phil's 31. It's the same answer as when Murray was chosen over Fleury. A 34 or 35 year old Phil probably won't be as valuable as a 27 or 28 year old Jake. However, if they do well this season, there's every reason to believe both will be on the roster next year. Salary won't be the reason if they aren't.



Meh.

3x$5M + 8x9.5M, but sure that he is solid vs 8x$7.5, but rolling the dice.

At the end of 8 years, with the bridge you have given him $62.5M (assured that he was worth it), without the bridge you gave $60M (while rolling the dice). [3x$5+5x$9.5 vs 8x7.5]
At the end of that 8 years he is 30, with the bridge you have 3 more years at $9.5M, without the bridge he is a UFA... what will be the going rate 6 UFA-sets from now for him?

I do not see any downside for the team, even with the higher extension started next year.

there are upsides and downsides of it, bridge deal you are risking them getting much much much more for the longer deal than they would initially get, with the single long term deal you are risking if the player does not live up to that contract then you are stuck with it.

The team is better off during the bridge years span on the bridge contract then they would be a the longer term one as it saves them cap during those years, the downside is after it is over they are then taking up much more space then they would be otherwise.
Hatrick
Junior 'A'
Junior 'A'
 
Posts: 179
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:48 pm

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Hatrick on Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:52 pm

Ericf wrote:I really don't see us being able to field Cup-competitive teams in the future without trading either Kessel or Letang. As cheap younger players like Jake and Rust grow into larger contracts, we need cheaper players to replace them--not established, more expensive players. In addition, there has never been a team with more than 4 players at age 30+ in significant roles on the roster that has won the SC...just think about that...we have 7 now....

no matter how great Hags and Brass are this year, I think we can't re-sign them if we want to replenish for the remainder of the Sid and Geno years....to get those younger players (since our farm system does not have a ready supply of any more NHL-ready players), we need to trade Phil or Letang, both over 30 players, for younger players aged 25 or younger...

that's how I see it

the 30+ number isn't very significant to me, can they still perform, sid still best in NHL, malkin still elite, kessel had a career year, letang had a very up and down year.
I don't think they can resign brass because he will price himself out of range, I think hagelin could come cheap enough(quite a bit under his current cap) but if somebody else overpays him then they will have to let him walk.
Unless the trade makes the pens better within the next 3 years or so the trade should not be done, regardless of ages.
Hatrick
Junior 'A'
Junior 'A'
 
Posts: 179
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:48 pm

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Ericf on Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:20 pm

Hatrick wrote:
Ericf wrote:I really don't see us being able to field Cup-competitive teams in the future without trading either Kessel or Letang. As cheap younger players like Jake and Rust grow into larger contracts, we need cheaper players to replace them--not established, more expensive players. In addition, there has never been a team with more than 4 players at age 30+ in significant roles on the roster that has won the SC...just think about that...we have 7 now....

no matter how great Hags and Brass are this year, I think we can't re-sign them if we want to replenish for the remainder of the Sid and Geno years....to get those younger players (since our farm system does not have a ready supply of any more NHL-ready players), we need to trade Phil or Letang, both over 30 players, for younger players aged 25 or younger...

that's how I see it

the 30+ number isn't very significant to me, can they still perform, sid still best in NHL, malkin still elite, kessel had a career year, letang had a very up and down year.
I don't think they can resign brass because he will price himself out of range, I think hagelin could come cheap enough(quite a bit under his current cap) but if somebody else overpays him then they will have to let him walk.
Unless the trade makes the pens better within the next 3 years or so the trade should not be done, regardless of ages.


I think this season will be telling...if they get no where near the Cup final, IMO JR should be aggressive in trading some older players and doing a minor retool, even if we end up with younger players who aren’t yet as good on paper as the older players they’re replacing...just think that’s the way hockey is going...look at WSH...they traded out some older, better players for younger, faster but not as good players and still won the Cup...
Ericf
Junior 'A'
Junior 'A'
 
Posts: 54
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2016 7:32 pm

Next

Return to Pittsburgh Penguins

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 19 guests


e-mail