Stock Market

[Troy Loney]

Jim Cramer is a clown

Probably, but this sell off is based on global volatility and not market conditions. So while maybe it's a bit of a "correction", because the increase wasn't based completely on market conditions. The economy isn't doing badly.

[lemieuxReturns]

I put $100 in to my IRA every Wednesday, so that leaves $200-300 of float every year, depending on the calendar, in terms of staying under the IRS limit.

The S&P 500 futures are already down another -1.11%. Today seems like as good as any day to make that additional purchase.

I am no expert, but i would hold off on purchasing anything at this point in time.... i don't think we are anywhere close to the bottom.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102093672?trknav ... :topnews:3" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I think it's a going to be a decent spot to do some buying.

I am not arguing why the market is dropping... but if your point from the link is that the market drop is due to Ebola fears; why would now be a good time to buy? Do you think people will stop fearing Ebola today?

[Troy Loney]

I am relatively sure that people will stop fearing Ebola in a matter of weeks.

[lemieuxReturns]

I am relatively sure that people will stop fearing Ebola in a matter of weeks.

Let's assume for arguments sake that you are correct. Lets also assume when you say "weeks" you mean 2 and not more. That is 10 days of trading before the fear subsides. If you take the average drop over the past few days that Ebola has now began to strike fear into Americans (again, this is your reason why the market has dropped), I would not want to buy something right now, knowing that we have another 10 trade-able days left of fear killing the market.

But hey... its your money. Throw it into the ring.

[columbia]

S&P up .02% and the futures are up .14%.

:pop:

Not that any of this matters for the next 40 years (which is my horizon), but it definitely felt like the right time. :)

[JeffDFD]

S&P up .02% and the futures are up .14%.



Not that any of this matters for the next 40 years (which is my horizon), but it definitely felt like the right time.

DONT TIME THE MARKET!!!

...but if you do and get it right it feels good so tell everyone about it! I wish I had some extra cash right about now, but I will be finishing off some yearly contributions at this time.

[columbia]

S&P up .02% and the futures are up .14%.



Not that any of this matters for the next 40 years (which is my horizon), but it definitely felt like the right time.

DONT TIME THE MARKET!!!

...but if you do and get it right it feels good so tell everyone about it! I wish I had some extra cash right about now, but I will be finishing off some yearly contributions at this time.

Definitely. I do my weekly IRA buys and every other Monday at 6% of my gross paycheck in my 403b. That's about as boring as it gets. The annual makeup for that last bit in the IRA....well, you gotta try and have some fun with that.

[Troy Loney]

Welp, dow is up almost 2%. I really don't think there's anything concrete to read about this ridiculous swings.

[columbia]

Just wai til PFIDC gins up the ebola fear factor to another level.

[Beveridge]

Welp, dow is up almost 2%. I really don't think there's anything concrete to read about this ridiculous swings.

Stock Market and Women have a lot in common?

[columbia]

I enjoyed this:

If you feel the urge to exit the market during a volatile period, you would do well to remember that you picked your equity allocation willingly and likely during a period when you weren’t emotional. No one forced you to pick this spot on the risk-and-return curve. You did it in good conscience and for good reason. The trick is to recognize Kahneman’s observation that the fear of loss is more powerful than the joy of a gain, and that you’re experiencing that now.

You may be saying, “Rick seems pretty confident the market will recover. What if this time it’s different?” If you believe the stock market may not come back this time, then you have much more to worry about than your investment portfolio.

The U.S. is the leading capitalist economy in the world. If companies don’t make money in the long run, the entire global economic system would collapse.

http://www.rickferri.com/blog/strategy/ ... olatility/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Troy Loney]

So basically, a future state in which the US economy doesn't come back, is a future state where money accumulation isn't a part of life.

[columbia]

Monte Carlo simulation time....

https://retirementplans.vanguard.com/VG ... ggCalc.jsf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

To make it (vaguely) useful to a younger investor, plop in your *expected* worth at the time of retirement, planned asset mix, desired total years of withdrawal and desired withdrawal rate.

I got a 93% chance of not running out of money at 4% withdrawal rate. (It goes up 99% at 3%.) I don't know if that's terribly reassuring, so I need to work on pumping that up....

[Tomas]

I got featured in MarketWatch a few days ago:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/powerf ... 2014-10-23" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And yes, hard earned taxpayer dollars have been wasted on this meaningless research!!!

[ulf]

Wow that's awesome. Congrats Tomas!

[thehockeyguru]

Very interesting. Do you think that the lackluster performance post merger is a result of the companies inability to synergize technology?

[Troy Loney]

I thought it was implied that the likelihood of the clout CEO's overpaying for the acquisition diminished the ROI.

[Tomas]

I thought it was implied that the likelihood of the clout CEO's overpaying for the acquisition diminished the ROI.

Precisely - this reason.

Our conclusion is that well connected CEOs tend to bid no matter what, so they are (a) more likely to close any particular takeover but also (b) more likely to overpay for the target. We in fact find that as the CEO connectedness increases, the stock returns surrounding the takeover announcement monotonously decline for the bidding company (and on average end up quite negative), but monotonously increase for the target (and on average end up very positive - in excess of 25%).

Though it's not just the re-distribution of the gains - well connected bidder CEOs tend to initiate takeovers that are worse in general. A good measure of the overall success of the acquisition is the value-weighted bidder + target stock returns surrounding the takeover announcement (i.e. if bidder is 3 times as big as the target, you do 3/4 of the bidder return + 1/4 of the target return). And we find that as the CEO connectedness increases, the value-weighted bidder + target stock returns surrounding the takeover announcement monotonously decline (and end up negative for the mergers initiated by the most connected bidder CEOs).

[dodint]

Props to Fidelity for not batting an eye when I requested to rollover my 401(k) into an external IRA. No upsell, nothing, just really nice professional help on the phone. Their website trys to steer you into rolling into their own IRA product, but the phone people were awesome. Kind of makes me want to go back.

[lemieuxReturns]

Does anyone here track the shiller ratio?

[columbia]

Crazy times for the markets in light of oil prices and the Russian monetary foibles. I have an international developed markets fund in taxable account, which has taken it on the chin all year. It was down 1.64% yesterday (when I made a 2K purchase). It's up 1.65% today. :)

[columbia]

Tomas said I should post this here....

I came in 4th place in the Bogleheads "guess the S&P 500 for 2014" contest....missed it by 2.02 points. Not bad.
http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/con ... index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I did beat all 14 "expert" predictions, mind you.

[JeffDFD]

Tomas said I should post this here....

I came in 4th place in the Bogleheads "guess the S&P 500 for 2014" contest....missed it by 2.02 points. Not bad.
http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/con ... index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I did beat all 14 "expert" predictions, mind you.

Nice. When did they make you submit your prediction? January last year? Going for it again?

[columbia]

Yeah....I'm going big and chose ~ 2262.

[KennyTheKangaroo]

Did colombia receive any reward for this feat? A tour of the suburban campus of vanguard?