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The Return of the Playoff Tracker Thread

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FLPensFan
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by FLPensFan »

thehockeyguru wrote: Thu Feb 29, 2024 11:30 am
Antonio wrote: Thu Feb 29, 2024 10:59 am Yeah sad as it is, winning the last 3 is actually the worst thing they could be doing for the longer term health of the team. Creating the temporary illusion they could do something is a terrible delusion. They need to firmly lean into selling, not imagining a reality that doesn't exist based on a few games.
Best case scenario is they sell and still make the playoffs. I really want to give SJ our 2024 1st that is a late teens early 20s pick. We could be worse next year if Crosby regresses
I'm the opposite. I really would rather miss the playoffs, and finish poorly enough to get a top 10 pick this year. I don't see Crosby having the type of regression that Malkin has started to have.

Trade Jake, get a young forward in return, plus a 1st next year to replace what we lose to SJ, plus a good prospect.
Swap Reilly Smith for someone else, like a Mikheyev or Bunting.
Then draft a top 10 guy this summer.

Good starting point on next season for me.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by thehockeyguru »

FLPensFan wrote: Thu Feb 29, 2024 12:37 pm
thehockeyguru wrote: Thu Feb 29, 2024 11:30 am
Antonio wrote: Thu Feb 29, 2024 10:59 am Yeah sad as it is, winning the last 3 is actually the worst thing they could be doing for the longer term health of the team. Creating the temporary illusion they could do something is a terrible delusion. They need to firmly lean into selling, not imagining a reality that doesn't exist based on a few games.
Best case scenario is they sell and still make the playoffs. I really want to give SJ our 2024 1st that is a late teens early 20s pick. We could be worse next year if Crosby regresses
I'm the opposite. I really would rather miss the playoffs, and finish poorly enough to get a top 10 pick this year. I don't see Crosby having the type of regression that Malkin has started to have.

Trade Jake, get a young forward in return, plus a 1st next year to replace what we lose to SJ, plus a good prospect.
Swap Reilly Smith for someone else, like a Mikheyev or Bunting.
Then draft a top 10 guy this summer.

Good starting point on next season for me.
I get your point but it seems like a gamble that they aren't worse next season.

Also is there a player in the 8-10 range that can start in the NHL next season? I'm not sure there is
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by pronovost19 »

Down 10% to 41.6%.
That loss last night really hurt their chances.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by FLPensFan »

pronovost19 wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 8:53 am Down 10% to 41.6%.
That loss last night really hurt their chances.
Penguins are now 7 points behind Philly with only 3 games in hand. So, even if they won the games in hand, they are still a point behind Philly in the standings. I believe (but not certain) this is the first this month that if they won the games in hand they would still be out of the playoffs.

In their last 10 games:
--Philly has 13 points
--Detroit has 14 points
--Tampa has 11 points
-----------------------------
--NJ has 11 points
--Islanders have 12 points
--Washington has 12 points
--Penguins have 9 points

The Penguins are the only team above that is below .500 in their last 10 (4-5-1), and that's having a 3 game win streak in there. The Penguins continue to lose ground, not gain ground. They need to be the Detroit of this bunch (7-3 in their last 10), not posting sub-500 record over their last 10.

Dubas is psychotic if he's still thinking about trying to make a run this year.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by Pitts »

FLPensFan wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 11:13 am

Dubas is psychotic if he's still thinking about trying to make a run this year.
I don't think he is. I just have a feeling he's going to sell off or swap out as many vets as he can. I really do. Guentzel, Smith, POJ, Ruhwedel, Rackell, Accari, Eller (I'd like to keep him), one or two of the goalies (including Hellberg here even tho I think there's no interest), Graves if there is a taker...

I think any of them could go next week.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by FLPensFan »

Too early to look at magic numbers, but...
--Philly has 22 games remaining and currently 69 points. Winning out all games (I know, not gonna happen) gives them 113 points.
--Penguins have 25 games remaining and currently 62 points. Winning out gives them 112 points.
--Detroit has 22 games remaining and currently 72 points. Winning out gives them 116 points.
--Tampa has 20 games remaining and currently 70 points. Winning out gives them 110 points.

We know NONE of these teams are winning all remaining games, but it gives a look at the possible total max points. As of right now, if all teams won out, it would be Philly in 3rd Metro, Detroit WC1, Penguins WC2.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by Skatingpen »

Washington is 6-3 and could very well overtake Philly.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by KG »

Skatingpen wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2024 10:08 am Washington is 6-3 and could very well overtake Philly.
Devils with a horrible loss against the Ducks. Maybe it will be the Pens that overtakes Philly :slug:
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by FLPensFan »

As much as I think this team's playoff chances were decided a few weeks ago, and several of the games over the past week were win or its over....tonight may now be the big win or sell hard game.

With Philly losing last night to Washington, the Penguins cannot afford to not gain ground on Philly tonight. A loss tonight should be the final nail in the coffin. It's a must win, 2 points needed game tonight, IMO.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by Puck-Lurker »

FLPensFan wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2024 11:39 am As much as I think this team's playoff chances were decided a few weeks ago, and several of the games over the past week were win or its over....tonight may now be the big win or sell hard game.

With Philly losing last night to Washington, the Penguins cannot afford to not gain ground on Philly tonight. A loss tonight should be the final nail in the coffin. It's a must win, 2 points needed game tonight, IMO.
If you look at the numbers, we're still hovering around the 20-25% chance to sneak into the playoffs. But much of that rests on the games Pens have in hand. Which isn't that helpful with how we're trending and how we look when playing basically anyone in the league. That is to say: not good!

I'm expecting the required number of points to be something like 96, maybe that's a little high. With 25 games left and 34 points short of that mark, pens would need to get a .680 record for the remainder of the schedule. And before anyone thinks: "Okay, unlikely, but maybe somehow..?"

At the start of the year, the Pens had a .571 record. Since then, they have played 22 games (22 points) a .500 record for that stretch. This boat is sinking and it's high time we stop rearranging deck chairs and tell the band to stop playing and get to the lifeboats.
(Except the drummer. He can go down with the ship :lol: )
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by FLPensFan »

thehockeyguru wrote: Thu Feb 29, 2024 9:42 pm
FLPensFan wrote: Thu Feb 29, 2024 12:37 pm
thehockeyguru wrote: Thu Feb 29, 2024 11:30 am
Antonio wrote: Thu Feb 29, 2024 10:59 am Yeah sad as it is, winning the last 3 is actually the worst thing they could be doing for the longer term health of the team. Creating the temporary illusion they could do something is a terrible delusion. They need to firmly lean into selling, not imagining a reality that doesn't exist based on a few games.
Best case scenario is they sell and still make the playoffs. I really want to give SJ our 2024 1st that is a late teens early 20s pick. We could be worse next year if Crosby regresses
I'm the opposite. I really would rather miss the playoffs, and finish poorly enough to get a top 10 pick this year. I don't see Crosby having the type of regression that Malkin has started to have.

Trade Jake, get a young forward in return, plus a 1st next year to replace what we lose to SJ, plus a good prospect.
Swap Reilly Smith for someone else, like a Mikheyev or Bunting.
Then draft a top 10 guy this summer.

Good starting point on next season for me.
I get your point but it seems like a gamble that they aren't worse next season.

Also is there a player in the 8-10 range that can start in the NHL next season? I'm not sure there is
There's nobody in the 8-10 range that is likely to play next season...but anyone taken in the 8-10 range almost instantly becomes our best prospect. From what I understand, this draft falls off after around the 20th pick or so.

Celibrini is likely the only player in this draft that could jump into the NHL from the start. There are some projected elite level scorers in the top 10 like Berkly Catton, Konsta Helenius, and Cole Eiserman...who might be in range if the Penguins are picking 8-10 in 2024.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by IntangibleBeer »

If the game of “Let’s pretend we can make the playoffs” is still being played anywhere inside the Penguins or FSG organizations, it has to come to an end. Yeah, publicly that might be the story (for the sake of ticket sales), but KD should be looking to build up the team this week for next year.
Last edited by IntangibleBeer on Sat Mar 02, 2024 7:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by FLPensFan »

IntangibleBeer wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2024 7:11 pm If the game of “Let’s pretend we can make the playoffs” is still being played anywhere inside the Penguins or FSG organizations, it has come to an end. Yeah, publicly that might be the story (for the sake of ticket sales), KD should be looking to build up the team this week for next year.
Philly lost last night. Detroit lost today. Philly plays Ottawa tonight. I fear another loss by Philly tonight can still have them thinking they have a shot.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by IntangibleBeer »

FLPensFan wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2024 7:15 pm
IntangibleBeer wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2024 7:11 pm If the game of “Let’s pretend we can make the playoffs” is still being played anywhere inside the Penguins or FSG organizations, it has come to an end. Yeah, publicly that might be the story (for the sake of ticket sales), KD should be looking to build up the team this week for next year.
Philly lost last night. Detroit lost today. Philly plays Ottawa tonight. I fear another loss by Philly tonight can still have them thinking they have a shot.
Well, then I guess tonight could tell the tale.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by DelPen »

I looked back at 2009 when we traded for Kunitz to see how far out of the playoffs we were. I thought it might be comparable to now. It was 2 points. Just 2. And there were only 2 more teams they were behind by 1 point. And they made that move on Feb 26 so something should had been done by now to shake the team up to right the ship but that time has past and was probably months ago.

We did end up finisging 2nd in the division going 33 points to end the season winning 13 of those last 18 games and 3 of those losses were in OT or SO so points in 16 of 18 games. This team ins’t doing that.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by FLPensFan »

Philly wins vs Ottawa
Tampa wins vs Montreal in a shootout.

9 points behind Philly with 5 games in hand (after tonight, 4 games in hand)
8 points behind Tampa with 5 games in hand (after tonight, 4 games in hand)
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by DelPen »

FLPensFan wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2024 10:10 pm Philly wins vs Ottawa
Tampa wins vs Montreal in a shootout.

9 points behind Philly with 5 games in hand (after tonight, 4 games in hand)
8 points behind Tampa with 5 games in hand (after tonight, 4 games in hand)
So almost the same position we were in last week before the Philly game but with 4 less games to play.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by FLPensFan »

DelPen wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2024 10:12 pm
FLPensFan wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2024 10:10 pm Philly wins vs Ottawa
Tampa wins vs Montreal in a shootout.

9 points behind Philly with 5 games in hand (after tonight, 4 games in hand)
8 points behind Tampa with 5 games in hand (after tonight, 4 games in hand)
So almost the same position we were in last week before the Philly game but with 4 less games to play.
Islanders also won their 3rd in a row tonight. They are now 4 points up on the Penguins , and the Penguins have 3 games in hand (2 after the Calgary game).
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by thehockeyguru »

Can we change this to a tank-a-thon thread?

Pens are 6 points ahead of Montreal for 26th place
Pens are 7 points ahead of Arizona for 27th. Arizona plays at Chicago tonight
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by KG »

thehockeyguru wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 3:01 pm Can we change this to a tank-a-thon thread?

Pens are 6 points ahead of Montreal for 26th place
Pens are 7 points ahead of Arizona for 27th. Arizona plays at Chicago tonight
Good idea :)

At this point, hoping we finish as low in the standings as we can.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by Admin »

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl

Went from 3.5% to 5.0%.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by KG »

Admin wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 3:49 pm https://www.tankathon.com/nhl

Went from 3.5% to 5.0%.
Looks like the lowest we can finish, realistically is 8th. Montreal is 6 points behind us.

Crazy to see how far the Devils fell this season. 10th overall. No way they're keeping that pick. They need to win next season.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by FLPensFan »

KG wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 3:53 pm
Admin wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 3:49 pm https://www.tankathon.com/nhl

Went from 3.5% to 5.0%.
Looks like the lowest we can finish, realistically is 8th. Montreal is 6 points behind us.

Crazy to see how far the Devils fell this season. 10th overall. No way they're keeping that pick. They need to win next season.
We should actually be at 6.0% Buffalo has a point more than us.

I'm not entirely convinced we cannot get to 6th or 7th. Montreal is 6 points below us with 1 game in hand. Arizona is 7 points below us with 1 game in hand. I haven't looked at their schedules yet, but I know the Penguins have a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way. 12 of our 19 games remaining are against playoff teams. We have OTT and SJ next, which is where you would expect to snap the losing streak...but you never know. We also have a home and home against Columbus at the end of the month.

Montreal has 4 games against non-playoff teams, 14 games vs playoff teams.
Arizona has has 7 games against non-playoff teams, 11 vs playoff teams.
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by thehockeyguru »

Coyotes would have been 5pts behind us but they lost to Chicago
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Re: Points Out of Playoffs Spot tracker

Post by thehockeyguru »

Ottawa wins today 7 points behind the Pens
Arizona up 3-1 end of 2. Will be 6 behind the Pens with the win
Montreal 6 points behind Pittsburgh plays Calgary tonight
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