A deeper look at a Dubas "rebuild on the fly"

[FLPensFan]

After development camp and seeing some of these guys perform and the buzz around a few of them, I really started thinking about how long it may take to turn this team around. I'm wondering where this team might be able to be in 3 years with the right level of moves...just in time for Crosby's last hurrah. Of course, if we start seeing a Malkin-level decline in Sid, this plan all goes right down the toilet.

But alas, here's a closer look at where we stand.

Goalies:
--Blomqvist is 22
--Murashov is 20

In 3 years, they'll be 25 and 23 respectively. Neither has yet to play an NHL game, but the early promise shows the Penguins could be set at this position when it comes to next generation of Penguins competitiveness.

Defense

I think the Penguins are fairly strong here as well. Pickering and Brunicke have the very early makings of a very solid shutdown 2nd pairing. It's quite possible that one of them could elevate to be a poor man's #2 d-man, more in the mold of a Brian Dumoulin type of #2. These two are 20 and 18, respectively, which again, puts them in good position to be part of the next generation at 23 and 21.

Between St. Ivany, Belliveau, Ludvig, Pietila, and Pieniniemi, there's a good chance two of those 5 could fill out the 3rd pairing.

So, what the Penguins really need to find for this grouping is a true #1 defenseman, and probably another solid top 4 d-man. If they can do that over the next 2 years, they are in good shape. Finding the #1 d-man is obviously the tougher find, and, I think you can add someone in the 26-28 range in 2 years to be that "other middle pairing guy."

Forward

All of this is going on assumption and what we've seen to date. For now, let's assume that Yager and Howe have 1st and 2nd line winger (respectively) as their top end. You have Crosby at 2C by this time (potentially). That means we need to find a 1C and two other top 6 wingers. The 1C will be the toughest to find. At least 1 of the other top 6 wingers will come from trade or UFA market.

For the bottom 6, 4th line shouldn't be a concern. We have enough lower end prospects that shouldn't be an issue, as well as being able to find guys in the UFA market here.

The 3rd line is where we need some of the middling prospects to pan out. For 3C, we've need one of Broz, Ponomarev, Devlin, Plante, and Tankov to pan out. On the wings, we are looking at Koivunen, Poulin, Puustinen, plus the guys above.

Overall

Getting the 1C and #1 d-man will be the toughest part of the rebuild. Also, in terms of prospects....realistically....you can expect half this group of Yager, Howe, Pickering, Brunicke, Belliveau, Pietila, Pieniniemi, Blomqvist, Murashov, Broz, Ponomarev, Koivunen, Lucious, Devlin, Plante, Tankov, Poulin and Puustinen....TO FAIL. That's just the way NHL drafting and development work. Expecting to hit on every single one of these guys and every single one of them playing in an actual NHL game just isn't a plausible belief.

But even getting half of them to succeed gives us something:

X-X-Yager
Howe-Crosby-X
Koivunen-Ponomarev-Broz
Plante-Devlin-X

X-Brunicke
Pickering-Letang
Belliveau-X

Murashov
Blomqvist

1C and #1 d-man need to be top targets in the next 2 drafts...preferably, top 10 picks. Picking up 2 UFA top 6 wingers in future UFA classes, one or two bottom 6 guys, and then one or two UFA defensemen as well.

In the end, what I would hope Dubas is able to achieve is maybe something close to what LAs doing. Yes, I think they would like to have a little more success, but, they still have Kopitar and Doughty, while Dustin Brown and Jonathan Quick have moved on. That's their Cup winning core right there. In the meantime, they've added young guys like Byfield, Turcotte, and Kaliyev, and kept their 1st rounders.

This type of rebuild above by Dubas is NOT a long term, next generation. It's kind of a mid-point build, taking some of the old like Crosby and Letang, melding in some new, and melding in some UFAs to make another final Cup run in Crosby and Letang's final years. By keeping their 1st rounders, they can continue adding pieces to keep grafting onto the roster.

When Crosby and Letang are gone, then Dubas will need to decide which of those home-grown talents is worth keeping, and which help them acquire the picks, prospects, or young players to truly do a nuclear blow up and start fresh option.

[Ericf]

Yes, the rebuild will require two years at minimum picking in the top 5. We’re not getting the 1C and 1D via trade or free agent signing. Current prospect outside of the goalies aren’t good enough to really help Sid. Sid will be gone by the time we have a team potentially good enough to win

[pekkasteele]

Yea, I think it is a well thought post and I agree with it, BUT, I also think that the best way to get that 1C and 1D is at the draft, but as we do now with trying to, sort of win, and MAYBE get in to the playoffs, we also lowering our chances to actually draft those 2 players.

I don't think we should try to get a new top 6 winger this year, let DOC or Pusty or whoever we already have, to play with Sid, keep Jerry, keep Graves, lets just not try yo win so that we can get those players thru the draft. The days of trades where top young players are traded are over, no more Lindros trades et al.

If we continue this path we are on, still kind of trying to win, the rebuild will not be 2-3-4 years, it might never start, we might just be stuck in the middle, getting somewhat good players for drafting top 10-15 every year, but we will not get those player that takes us over the top.

[bse]

I believe it will eventually be a slow kind of rebuild for the next three years where we get rid of unwanted NMC/NTC contracts (by expiration/retirement), see the end of Crosby's career, get the fans on board and bank the money by staying competitive for as long as possible etc. and obtain a good mix of young promising 2nd, 3rd and 4th liners through draft and trades as mentioned above. We might make the playoffs in one or two of those years.

But then, for the following two or three years we will need to be going into full tank mode and get top-5 draft picks to return back to the real competition. I do not believe for a second that rebuilding on the fly would work as a mid or long term solution. Just look at the Calgary Flames or Ottawa Senators for that matter.

When Crosby retires we will need to rely on those younger players for a couple of years. That's a good situation to be in and an excellent chance to keep fans excited and tank at the same time. It will be exciting and painful to watch at the same time, when we finish in the bottom five of the league. There's no other way and even after that it might require another two or three years to get back into the playoffs as few 18-years old could provide immediate help despite being drafted at, say #3.

It looks like KD is doing the best he can, by stocking up 2nd/3rd tier younger players for the future. This might accelerate things versus a full rebuild with no such planning. So I think the real timespan for the transformation is anything from 6 to 9 seasons.

[100565]

Every team (with the exception of St. Louis in 2019) that has won the cup in the last 20 years (if not longer) has had significant contributions from a player(s) selected 1st or 2nd overall.

I also do not think any team with Sid would ever finish low enough for a top 1-2 overall pick; unless ping pong luck strikes.

 Therefore, the most appropriate course is to use assets now to try to win with Sid.  After Sid, be as bad as possible to get the high picks needed to win.  

If Yager (or any other prospects) can play 24-25 season and contribute, keep them. If not, trade them for help now.

Of course trading takes two teams to agree. I bet Dubas is trying to make trade(s) but won’t make a lopsided trade.

I won’t be shocked if Laine (or similar) will be part of this team and I would imagine such a trade will take some picks/prospects.

I want the Pens to compete for cups, not be a habitually mediocre team. Winning cups need high end, 1st or 2nd overall, talent. You get those by being bad, really bad.

[Daniel]

I believe it will eventually be a slow kind of rebuild for the next three years where we get rid of unwanted NMC/NTC contracts (by expiration/retirement), see the end of Crosby's career, get the fans on board and bank the money by staying competitive for as long as possible etc. and obtain a good mix of young promising 2nd, 3rd and 4th liners through draft and trades as mentioned above. We might make the playoffs in one or two of those years.

But then, for the following two or three years we will need to be going into full tank mode and get top-5 draft picks to return back to the real competition. I do not believe for a second that rebuilding on the fly would work as a mid or long term solution. Just look at the Calgary Flames or Ottawa Senators for that matter.

When Crosby retires we will need to rely on those younger players for a couple of years. That's a good situation to be in and an excellent chance to keep fans excited and tank at the same time. It will be exciting and painful to watch at the same time, when we finish in the bottom five of the league. There's no other way and even after that it might require another two or three years to get back into the playoffs as few 18-years old could provide immediate help despite being drafted at, say #3.

It looks like KD is doing the best he can, by stocking up 2nd/3rd tier younger players for the future. This might accelerate things versus a full rebuild with no such planning. So I think the real timespan for the transformation is anything from 6 to 9 seasons.

If done right, it doesn't have to be a slow rebuild. I think Dubas is working to get all the pieces into place and hope one generational player fills the last void. While I would love a Letang type #1 guy, I don't think it's imparitive to be competitive.

I can see building lines 1 through 4 minutes 1C and 3 pairings of defense and plug the 1C in and become competitive pretty quick. Now it might take a few years to go from competitive to cup finalist, but that's fine.

[FLPensFan]

Every team (with the exception of St. Louis in 2019) that has won the cup in the last 20 years (if not longer) has had significant contributions from a player(s) selected 1st or 2nd overall.

I also do not think any team with Sid would ever finish low enough for a top 1-2 overall pick; unless ping pong luck strikes.

 Therefore, the most appropriate course is to use assets now to try to win with Sid.  After Sid, be as bad as possible to get the high picks needed to win.  

If Yager (or any other prospects) can play 24-25 season and contribute, keep them. If not, trade them for help now.

Of course trading takes two teams to agree. I bet Dubas is trying to make trade(s) but won’t make a lopsided trade.

I won’t be shocked if Laine (or similar) will be part of this team and I would imagine such a trade will take some picks/prospects.

I want the Pens to compete for cups, not be a habitually mediocre team. Winning cups need high end, 1st or 2nd overall, talent. You get those by being bad, really bad.

I think Florida may have just shown that, you don't need a treasure trove of top 5 picks to win the Cup. It can be done with a smart GM.

Of Florida's Cup winning team, only Barkov (2nd overall), Ekblad (1st overall) and Lundell (12th overall) were homegrown talent. You can add in Spencer Knight (13th overall) who had no impact on last season, and Kulikov (14th overall), who was originally drafted by Florida but has played more games for other teams than Florida.

Now, Florida had a bunch of other top 15 picks that weren't on the team or that they missed on. Huberdeau (3rd overall) was one. They also drafted Gudbranson 3rd overall, Lawson Crouse 11th overall, Mike Matheson 23rd overall, Owen Tippett 10th overall, Gregori Denisenko 15th overall, and Borgstrom 23rd overall. Some of those guys (Denisenko and Borgstrom) flamed out, some were traded for bigger pieces (Huberdeau), but others were traded for pieces that really didn't impact the Cup team (Gudbranson, Crouse, Matheson, Tippett, Bjugstad, Howden).

The big piece is, look at all those 1st round picks that hit in one way or another. From 2010-2020, they had 13 1st round picks. Only Quinton Howden, Gregori Denisenko, and Henrik Borgstrom have failed to play 100 NHL games and essentially were total busts.

So, drafting and hitting, even when you are picking outside the top 10, has worked for Florida...even if few of those pieces played on the Cup winning team...is critical to success.

The other piece is, adding the right free agents AND taking the right chances. Montour, Bennett, Reinhart, Forsling, and OEL were all seen as washed up or failing to hit their potential. Florida bought low on all of them (Reinhart was most expensive acquisition cost) and it worked. Dubas needs to make more moves like that for this team to be successful.

[Antonio]

Yeah but how many washed up guys does Toronto have or that KD drafted in Toronto that we can buy low on?

[Ericf]

Every team (with the exception of St. Louis in 2019) that has won the cup in the last 20 years (if not longer) has had significant contributions from a player(s) selected 1st or 2nd overall.

I also do not think any team with Sid would ever finish low enough for a top 1-2 overall pick; unless ping pong luck strikes.

 Therefore, the most appropriate course is to use assets now to try to win with Sid.  After Sid, be as bad as possible to get the high picks needed to win.  

If Yager (or any other prospects) can play 24-25 season and contribute, keep them. If not, trade them for help now.

Of course trading takes two teams to agree. I bet Dubas is trying to make trade(s) but won’t make a lopsided trade.

I won’t be shocked if Laine (or similar) will be part of this team and I would imagine such a trade will take some picks/prospects.

I want the Pens to compete for cups, not be a habitually mediocre team. Winning cups need high end, 1st or 2nd overall, talent. You get those by being bad, really bad.

I don’t think it’s possible to win with Sid now unless we trade 1st round picks and top prospects for a young player 25 or under who could jump start things and I don’t think we’d get that via trade. So imo it’s better to lose big the next couple seasons (draft McKenna!) . That will make us competitive sooner. If we spend more assets to try to win with late 30s Sid, it will take us even longer to be competitive. The Caps route as your suggesting would have been ideal if we had some prospects like LaPierre, McMichael etc in the system already to incorporate. We’ll see if the Caps can do it, and while they’re probably going to be better than the Pens the next couple years, they’re probably still not a contender. The Pens haven’t been as smart and proactive as MacClellan the last few seasons, so I think it’s too late for that approach unfortunately

[100565]

Every team (with the exception of St. Louis in 2019) that has won the cup in the last 20 years (if not longer) has had significant contributions from a player(s) selected 1st or 2nd overall.

I also do not think any team with Sid would ever finish low enough for a top 1-2 overall pick; unless ping pong luck strikes.

 Therefore, the most appropriate course is to use assets now to try to win with Sid.  After Sid, be as bad as possible to get the high picks needed to win.  

If Yager (or any other prospects) can play 24-25 season and contribute, keep them. If not, trade them for help now.

Of course trading takes two teams to agree. I bet Dubas is trying to make trade(s) but won’t make a lopsided trade.

I won’t be shocked if Laine (or similar) will be part of this team and I would imagine such a trade will take some picks/prospects.

I want the Pens to compete for cups, not be a habitually mediocre team. Winning cups need high end, 1st or 2nd overall, talent. You get those by being bad, really bad.

I think Florida may have just shown that, you don't need a treasure trove of top 5 picks to win the Cup. It can be done with a smart GM.

Of Florida's Cup winning team, only Barkov (2nd overall), Ekblad (1st overall) and Lundell (12th overall) were homegrown talent. You can add in Spencer Knight (13th overall) who had no impact on last season, and Kulikov (14th overall), who was originally drafted by Florida but has played more games for other teams than Florida.

Now, Florida had a bunch of other top 15 picks that weren't on the team or that they missed on. Huberdeau (3rd overall) was one. They also drafted Gudbranson 3rd overall, Lawson Crouse 11th overall, Mike Matheson 23rd overall, Owen Tippett 10th overall, Gregori Denisenko 15th overall, and Borgstrom 23rd overall. Some of those guys (Denisenko and Borgstrom) flamed out, some were traded for bigger pieces (Huberdeau), but others were traded for pieces that really didn't impact the Cup team (Gudbranson, Crouse, Matheson, Tippett, Bjugstad, Howden).

The big piece is, look at all those 1st round picks that hit in one way or another. From 2010-2020, they had 13 1st round picks. Only Quinton Howden, Gregori Denisenko, and Henrik Borgstrom have failed to play 100 NHL games and essentially were total busts.

So, drafting and hitting, even when you are picking outside the top 10, has worked for Florida...even if few of those pieces played on the Cup winning team...is critical to success.

The other piece is, adding the right free agents AND taking the right chances. Montour, Bennett, Reinhart, Forsling, and OEL were all seen as washed up or failing to hit their potential. Florida bought low on all of them (Reinhart was most expensive acquisition cost) and it worked. Dubas needs to make more moves like that for this team to be successful.

I agree with most of this but Barkov is top 15 or so player in the league. Year after year cup winning teams have significant impact from 1st or 2nd overall pick.

[100565]

Every team (with the exception of St. Louis in 2019) that has won the cup in the last 20 years (if not longer) has had significant contributions from a player(s) selected 1st or 2nd overall.

I also do not think any team with Sid would ever finish low enough for a top 1-2 overall pick; unless ping pong luck strikes.

 Therefore, the most appropriate course is to use assets now to try to win with Sid.  After Sid, be as bad as possible to get the high picks needed to win.  

If Yager (or any other prospects) can play 24-25 season and contribute, keep them. If not, trade them for help now.

Of course trading takes two teams to agree. I bet Dubas is trying to make trade(s) but won’t make a lopsided trade.

I won’t be shocked if Laine (or similar) will be part of this team and I would imagine such a trade will take some picks/prospects.

I want the Pens to compete for cups, not be a habitually mediocre team. Winning cups need high end, 1st or 2nd overall, talent. You get those by being bad, really bad.

I don’t think it’s possible to win with Sid now unless we trade 1st round picks and top prospects for a young player 25 or under who could jump start things and I don’t think we’d get that via trade. So imo it’s better to lose big the next couple seasons (draft McKenna!) . That will make us competitive sooner. If we spend more assets to try to win with late 30s Sid, it will take us even longer to be competitive. The Caps route as your suggesting would have been ideal if we had some prospects like LaPierre, McMichael etc in the system already to incorporate. We’ll see if the Caps can do it, and while they’re probably going to be better than the Pens the next couple years, they’re probably still not a contender. The Pens haven’t been as smart and proactive as MacClellan the last few seasons, so I think it’s too late for that approach unfortunately

I agree it will be tough to win a cup with Sid. But I also cannot imagine a team with Sid being awful (unless he injured).

I think the core should have been broken up a couple years after the last cup. I think Rutherford wanted to but he was told no. Hence his abrupt resignation.

As the cards lie, I think ya take one or two more controlled chances of winning now. Avoid long term UFA especially with ntc or nmc. Try to bring young, but experienced, NHL players that might need a change (like Laine). Get guys that have something to prove (playing for bigger contracts) like Puljujarvi and kinda like Grzelcyk). Fix the PP. Fire Sully. Roll the dice and give it a go.

After Sid, be awful. Use cap space to get extra picks. Hope for high talent when picking 1st or 2nd.

[Pitts]

I believe it will eventually be a slow kind of rebuild for the next three years where we get rid of unwanted NMC/NTC contracts (by expiration/retirement), see the end of Crosby's career, get the fans on board and bank the money by staying competitive for as long as possible etc. and obtain a good mix of young promising 2nd, 3rd and 4th liners through draft and trades as mentioned above. We might make the playoffs in one or two of those years.

But then, for the following two or three years we will need to be going into full tank mode and get top-5 draft picks to return back to the real competition. I do not believe for a second that rebuilding on the fly would work as a mid or long term solution. Just look at the Calgary Flames or Ottawa Senators for that matter.

When Crosby retires we will need to rely on those younger players for a couple of years. That's a good situation to be in and an excellent chance to keep fans excited and tank at the same time. It will be exciting and painful to watch at the same time, when we finish in the bottom five of the league. There's no other way and even after that it might require another two or three years to get back into the playoffs as few 18-years old could provide immediate help despite being drafted at, say #3.

It looks like KD is doing the best he can, by stocking up 2nd/3rd tier younger players for the future. This might accelerate things versus a full rebuild with no such planning. So I think the real timespan for the transformation is anything from 6 to 9 seasons.

If done right, it doesn't have to be a slow rebuild. I think Dubas is working to get all the pieces into place and hope one generational player fills the last void. While I would love a Letang type #1 guy, I don't think it's imparitive to be competitive.

I can see building lines 1 through 4 minutes 1C and 3 pairings of defense and plug the 1C in and become competitive pretty quick. Now it might take a few years to go from competitive to cup finalist, but that's fine.

They need to somehow follow the Ranger mini-rebuild. They remained competitive while somehow still getting a couple top 5 picks and they were right back on top. It CAN be done. Just has to be done right.

[Puck-Lurker]

I believe it will eventually be a slow kind of rebuild for the next three years where we get rid of unwanted NMC/NTC contracts (by expiration/retirement), see the end of Crosby's career, get the fans on board and bank the money by staying competitive for as long as possible etc. and obtain a good mix of young promising 2nd, 3rd and 4th liners through draft and trades as mentioned above. We might make the playoffs in one or two of those years.

But then, for the following two or three years we will need to be going into full tank mode and get top-5 draft picks to return back to the real competition. I do not believe for a second that rebuilding on the fly would work as a mid or long term solution. Just look at the Calgary Flames or Ottawa Senators for that matter.

When Crosby retires we will need to rely on those younger players for a couple of years. That's a good situation to be in and an excellent chance to keep fans excited and tank at the same time. It will be exciting and painful to watch at the same time, when we finish in the bottom five of the league. There's no other way and even after that it might require another two or three years to get back into the playoffs as few 18-years old could provide immediate help despite being drafted at, say #3.

It looks like KD is doing the best he can, by stocking up 2nd/3rd tier younger players for the future. This might accelerate things versus a full rebuild with no such planning. So I think the real timespan for the transformation is anything from 6 to 9 seasons.

If done right, it doesn't have to be a slow rebuild. I think Dubas is working to get all the pieces into place and hope one generational player fills the last void. While I would love a Letang type #1 guy, I don't think it's imparitive to be competitive.

I can see building lines 1 through 4 minutes 1C and 3 pairings of defense and plug the 1C in and become competitive pretty quick. Now it might take a few years to go from competitive to cup finalist, but that's fine.

They need to somehow follow the Ranger mini-rebuild. They remained competitive while somehow still getting a couple top 5 picks and they were right back on top. It CAN be done. Just has to be done right.

This is where we want the new hire to start off some better scouting. Better drafting will solve a few issues, seeing as we're not giving away all our picks now.

[pekkasteele]

Every team (with the exception of St. Louis in 2019) that has won the cup in the last 20 years (if not longer) has had significant contributions from a player(s) selected 1st or 2nd overall.

I also do not think any team with Sid would ever finish low enough for a top 1-2 overall pick; unless ping pong luck strikes.

 Therefore, the most appropriate course is to use assets now to try to win with Sid.  After Sid, be as bad as possible to get the high picks needed to win.  

If Yager (or any other prospects) can play 24-25 season and contribute, keep them. If not, trade them for help now.

Of course trading takes two teams to agree. I bet Dubas is trying to make trade(s) but won’t make a lopsided trade.

I won’t be shocked if Laine (or similar) will be part of this team and I would imagine such a trade will take some picks/prospects.

I want the Pens to compete for cups, not be a habitually mediocre team. Winning cups need high end, 1st or 2nd overall, talent. You get those by being bad, really bad.

I think Florida may have just shown that, you don't need a treasure trove of top 5 picks to win the Cup. It can be done with a smart GM.

Of Florida's Cup winning team, only Barkov (2nd overall), Ekblad (1st overall) and Lundell (12th overall) were homegrown talent. You can add in Spencer Knight (13th overall) who had no impact on last season, and Kulikov (14th overall), who was originally drafted by Florida but has played more games for other teams than Florida.

Now, Florida had a bunch of other top 15 picks that weren't on the team or that they missed on. Huberdeau (3rd overall) was one. They also drafted Gudbranson 3rd overall, Lawson Crouse 11th overall, Mike Matheson 23rd overall, Owen Tippett 10th overall, Gregori Denisenko 15th overall, and Borgstrom 23rd overall. Some of those guys (Denisenko and Borgstrom) flamed out, some were traded for bigger pieces (Huberdeau), but others were traded for pieces that really didn't impact the Cup team (Gudbranson, Crouse, Matheson, Tippett, Bjugstad, Howden).

The big piece is, look at all those 1st round picks that hit in one way or another. From 2010-2020, they had 13 1st round picks. Only Quinton Howden, Gregori Denisenko, and Henrik Borgstrom have failed to play 100 NHL games and essentially were total busts.

So, drafting and hitting, even when you are picking outside the top 10, has worked for Florida...even if few of those pieces played on the Cup winning team...is critical to success.

The other piece is, adding the right free agents AND taking the right chances. Montour, Bennett, Reinhart, Forsling, and OEL were all seen as washed up or failing to hit their potential. Florida bought low on all of them (Reinhart was most expensive acquisition cost) and it worked. Dubas needs to make more moves like that for this team to be successful.

That is the thing, do you think Fla would have won without Barkov and Ekblad? Or Lundell? Because if we don't crash and burn, those are the players we WON'T have.

[100565]

I believe it will eventually be a slow kind of rebuild for the next three years where we get rid of unwanted NMC/NTC contracts (by expiration/retirement), see the end of Crosby's career, get the fans on board and bank the money by staying competitive for as long as possible etc. and obtain a good mix of young promising 2nd, 3rd and 4th liners through draft and trades as mentioned above. We might make the playoffs in one or two of those years.

But then, for the following two or three years we will need to be going into full tank mode and get top-5 draft picks to return back to the real competition. I do not believe for a second that rebuilding on the fly would work as a mid or long term solution. Just look at the Calgary Flames or Ottawa Senators for that matter.

When Crosby retires we will need to rely on those younger players for a couple of years. That's a good situation to be in and an excellent chance to keep fans excited and tank at the same time. It will be exciting and painful to watch at the same time, when we finish in the bottom five of the league. There's no other way and even after that it might require another two or three years to get back into the playoffs as few 18-years old could provide immediate help despite being drafted at, say #3.

It looks like KD is doing the best he can, by stocking up 2nd/3rd tier younger players for the future. This might accelerate things versus a full rebuild with no such planning. So I think the real timespan for the transformation is anything from 6 to 9 seasons.

If done right, it doesn't have to be a slow rebuild. I think Dubas is working to get all the pieces into place and hope one generational player fills the last void. While I would love a Letang type #1 guy, I don't think it's imparitive to be competitive.

I can see building lines 1 through 4 minutes 1C and 3 pairings of defense and plug the 1C in and become competitive pretty quick. Now it might take a few years to go from competitive to cup finalist, but that's fine.

They need to somehow follow the Ranger mini-rebuild. They remained competitive while somehow still getting a couple top 5 picks and they were right back on top. It CAN be done. Just has to be done right.

NYR have not won a cup in 30 years. I think only won cup final since then.

Them getting lucky with ping pong ball for first overall pick in 2020 should help them now though.

[largegarlic]

I think some of you are being too pessimistic about this team's chances to get top 10 picks the next couple years. They were on track for a top 10 pick last season before their end of season surge, and they still only made it to #14. And I don't think the roster for next season is much better than last season's, if it's better at all. If Crosby's play slips at all or he gets injured for a few weeks, I can easily see the Pens ending up with a top 10 pick in 2025.

Maybe the 2025-2026 season will be better in that some higher end young guys will be making an impact at that point, but the core is also likely to decline in the interim too, so I could see them having a top 10 pick in 2026 as well.

Then maybe after that in 2026-2027, Crosby hopefully still has something left in the tank, their two top 10 picks are studs, other young guys make a good supporting cast, and Crosby can at least get one last playoff run.

[KBone]

I really can't decide how things are going to go.

If we would have had even a remotely competent PP last year we'd have made the playoffs. Will they be that cold again? Probably not. So does that mean they can make the playoffs?

However, this team has a tendency to let things go off the rails for stretches which sinks them.

I honestly can't decide.

[Pitts]

I believe it will eventually be a slow kind of rebuild for the next three years where we get rid of unwanted NMC/NTC contracts (by expiration/retirement), see the end of Crosby's career, get the fans on board and bank the money by staying competitive for as long as possible etc. and obtain a good mix of young promising 2nd, 3rd and 4th liners through draft and trades as mentioned above. We might make the playoffs in one or two of those years.

But then, for the following two or three years we will need to be going into full tank mode and get top-5 draft picks to return back to the real competition. I do not believe for a second that rebuilding on the fly would work as a mid or long term solution. Just look at the Calgary Flames or Ottawa Senators for that matter.

When Crosby retires we will need to rely on those younger players for a couple of years. That's a good situation to be in and an excellent chance to keep fans excited and tank at the same time. It will be exciting and painful to watch at the same time, when we finish in the bottom five of the league. There's no other way and even after that it might require another two or three years to get back into the playoffs as few 18-years old could provide immediate help despite being drafted at, say #3.

It looks like KD is doing the best he can, by stocking up 2nd/3rd tier younger players for the future. This might accelerate things versus a full rebuild with no such planning. So I think the real timespan for the transformation is anything from 6 to 9 seasons.

If done right, it doesn't have to be a slow rebuild. I think Dubas is working to get all the pieces into place and hope one generational player fills the last void. While I would love a Letang type #1 guy, I don't think it's imparitive to be competitive.

I can see building lines 1 through 4 minutes 1C and 3 pairings of defense and plug the 1C in and become competitive pretty quick. Now it might take a few years to go from competitive to cup finalist, but that's fine.

They need to somehow follow the Ranger mini-rebuild. They remained competitive while somehow still getting a couple top 5 picks and they were right back on top. It CAN be done. Just has to be done right.

NYR have not won a cup in 30 years. I think only won cup final since then.

Them getting lucky with ping pong ball for first overall pick in 2020 should help them now though.

They made it to the conference finals 2 of the past 3 seasons! Missed the playoffs in 17-18 and 18-19. Lost in first round of Covid season, then missed again in 2020. Since then, they've been back in the game. If your only measure of success is Stanley Cup or bust, you're gonna be pretty miserable for the foreseeable future. To NHL teams, playoffs = success. The Cup is icing on top.

[Cow_Master66]

I really can't decide how things are going to go.

If we would have had even a remotely competent PP last year we'd have made the playoffs. Will they be that cold again? Probably not. So does that mean they can make the playoffs?

However, this team has a tendency to let things go off the rails for stretches which sinks them.

I honestly can't decide.

There's zero reason to assume they will be better...I mean, think about all the variables (last year this team had Guentzel, Crosby played 82 games, Karlsson/Malkin played 82 games, Letang played 82 games). Is there any reason to expect Malkin to be better this season? Letang? Rust? Rakell?

The only silver lining is this team might improve on the PP, which isn't saying too much. I think they will, ONLY, because I think Karlsson will improve this coming season. I DO NOT think the team will magically adjust their strategy and stop playing on the perimeter and telegraphing passes on the PP, but I do think EK will have an uptick and the % will go up. Also a full season of Bunting could help in this area.

The above, however, is assuming this team doesn't have 1, 2, 3 longer term injuries that upends what is already a below average lineup. I'd say that's a lot to ask from this group of elder statesmen. In essence, this team could finish anywhere from a top 5 pick to a 7/8 seed and first round exit in the playoffs.

[Daniel]

I believe it will eventually be a slow kind of rebuild for the next three years where we get rid of unwanted NMC/NTC contracts (by expiration/retirement), see the end of Crosby's career, get the fans on board and bank the money by staying competitive for as long as possible etc. and obtain a good mix of young promising 2nd, 3rd and 4th liners through draft and trades as mentioned above. We might make the playoffs in one or two of those years.

But then, for the following two or three years we will need to be going into full tank mode and get top-5 draft picks to return back to the real competition. I do not believe for a second that rebuilding on the fly would work as a mid or long term solution. Just look at the Calgary Flames or Ottawa Senators for that matter.

When Crosby retires we will need to rely on those younger players for a couple of years. That's a good situation to be in and an excellent chance to keep fans excited and tank at the same time. It will be exciting and painful to watch at the same time, when we finish in the bottom five of the league. There's no other way and even after that it might require another two or three years to get back into the playoffs as few 18-years old could provide immediate help despite being drafted at, say #3.

It looks like KD is doing the best he can, by stocking up 2nd/3rd tier younger players for the future. This might accelerate things versus a full rebuild with no such planning. So I think the real timespan for the transformation is anything from 6 to 9 seasons.

If done right, it doesn't have to be a slow rebuild. I think Dubas is working to get all the pieces into place and hope one generational player fills the last void. While I would love a Letang type #1 guy, I don't think it's imparitive to be competitive.

I can see building lines 1 through 4 minutes 1C and 3 pairings of defense and plug the 1C in and become competitive pretty quick. Now it might take a few years to go from competitive to cup finalist, but that's fine.

They need to somehow follow the Ranger mini-rebuild. They remained competitive while somehow still getting a couple top 5 picks and they were right back on top. It CAN be done. Just has to be done right.

NYR have not won a cup in 30 years. I think only won cup final since then.

Them getting lucky with ping pong ball for first overall pick in 2020 should help them now though.

They made it to the conference finals 2 of the past 3 seasons! Missed the playoffs in 17-18 and 18-19. Lost in first round of Covid season, then missed again in 2020. Since then, they've been back in the game. If your only measure of success is Stanley Cup or bust, you're gonna be pretty miserable for the foreseeable future. To NHL teams, playoffs = success. The Cup is icing on top.

I agree and disagree here, and while I get your point, I think it depends on the franchise and where they are in the development. For teams like the Rangers, Stars, Avs, Panthers, etc. I'd say just making the playoffs isn't good enough that the need to at least reach the Conference final.

[Dynasty1970]

Paleeeeeeze……..As long as Sully is the Head Coach, this team cannot improve.

[Pitts]

If done right, it doesn't have to be a slow rebuild. I think Dubas is working to get all the pieces into place and hope one generational player fills the last void. While I would love a Letang type #1 guy, I don't think it's imparitive to be competitive.

I can see building lines 1 through 4 minutes 1C and 3 pairings of defense and plug the 1C in and become competitive pretty quick. Now it might take a few years to go from competitive to cup finalist, but that's fine.

They need to somehow follow the Ranger mini-rebuild. They remained competitive while somehow still getting a couple top 5 picks and they were right back on top. It CAN be done. Just has to be done right.

NYR have not won a cup in 30 years. I think only won cup final since then.

Them getting lucky with ping pong ball for first overall pick in 2020 should help them now though.

They made it to the conference finals 2 of the past 3 seasons! Missed the playoffs in 17-18 and 18-19. Lost in first round of Covid season, then missed again in 2020. Since then, they've been back in the game. If your only measure of success is Stanley Cup or bust, you're gonna be pretty miserable for the foreseeable future. To NHL teams, playoffs = success. The Cup is icing on top.

I agree and disagree here, and while I get your point, I think it depends on the franchise and where they are in the development. For teams like the Rangers, Stars, Avs, Panthers, etc. I'd say just making the playoffs isn't good enough that the need to at least reach the Conference final.

I agree with that. Teams run in cycles. We are clearly in a different cycle right now - the group of teams where just getting in the playoffs is a successful season. I think as fans, we cannot hold our teams to Cup or bust every season. It's not gonna happen.

My point was, the Rangers turned it around pretty darn quickly. Follow their lead.

[Daniel]

They need to somehow follow the Ranger mini-rebuild. They remained competitive while somehow still getting a couple top 5 picks and they were right back on top. It CAN be done. Just has to be done right.

NYR have not won a cup in 30 years. I think only won cup final since then.

Them getting lucky with ping pong ball for first overall pick in 2020 should help them now though.

They made it to the conference finals 2 of the past 3 seasons! Missed the playoffs in 17-18 and 18-19. Lost in first round of Covid season, then missed again in 2020. Since then, they've been back in the game. If your only measure of success is Stanley Cup or bust, you're gonna be pretty miserable for the foreseeable future. To NHL teams, playoffs = success. The Cup is icing on top.

I agree and disagree here, and while I get your point, I think it depends on the franchise and where they are in the development. For teams like the Rangers, Stars, Avs, Panthers, etc. I'd say just making the playoffs isn't good enough that the need to at least reach the Conference final.

I agree with that. Teams run in cycles. We are clearly in a different cycle right now - the group of teams where just getting in the playoffs is a successful season. I think as fans, we cannot hold our teams to Cup or bust every season. It's not gonna happen.

My point was, the Rangers turned it around pretty darn quickly. Follow their lead.

Rangers, Kings, even Capitals (to be seen of course) show this isn't the Red Wings and 2 decade rebuild era. I think teams need 3 things, good GM/coaching/scouting, willingness to play 18-21 year old players and live with the growing pains, know when to take a chance with adding veterans.

The Penguins already have the veterans and really need to build the 18-21 kids and live with the growing pains, as well as a coach patient enough to allow the growing pains rather than one mistake = benching/demotion. Honestly I think the Penguins are 1 top 5 pick and a coaching change to be relevant in the NHL pretty fast. They'll have to rebuild to be more than a 1-2 round winner but it can happen in our lifetime (most of us are over 50 here, lol).

[BigMcK]

Sorry, but has Sullivan and the bosses from Boston signed off on the plan to move forward with bringing in youth to move backwards for a few years?

You know, the people who run the team. From Boston. For a Pittsburgh NHL hockey team. How did Betman and the NHL Goveners sign off off on the sale?

[Pens4Life]

If we start the season 2027-2028 with 90% of these guys below on roster among rebuild season I'm fine with it :

G - Murashov, Blomquist

LD - Pickering, Pieniniemi, Kral, Ludvig
RD - Brunicke, St.Ivany, Pietila

F - Yager, DOC, Howe, Koivunen, Puustinen, Poulin, Broz, Ponomarev, Cruz, Tankov, Ilyin, Plante, Gruden

Add some pick or two in next 3 years, 2-3 FA and lets go hehe