Looking at Draft Picks

Puck-Lurker · Post by **Puck-Lurker** » Sat Aug 24, 2024 9:21 am

Penguins are retooling, rebuilding, restocking the shelves? A look at who we drafted and their status. Nothing too in-depth.

2022, 2023, 2024 Draft Picks
Here’s a list; name, position, draft year, draft round, signing status, league they’ll likely be playing in during the season,

Pickering | LD | 2022 | 1st | Signed | AHL
Murashov | G | 2022 | 4th | Signed | AHL
Collins * | RD | 2022 | 6th | Unsigned | OHL
Plante | C | 2022 | 6th | Unsigned | NCAA
Swoyer** | RD | 2022 | UD | Unsigned | ECHL
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Yager*** | C | 2023 | 1st | Signed | WHL
Pieniniemi | LD | 2023 | 3rd | Signed | OHL
Ilyin | C | 2023 | 5th | Unsigned | KHL
Foster | C | 2023 | 6th | Unsigned | OHL
Järventi | LW | 2023 | 7th | Unsigned | Liiga
Kangas | LD | 2023 | 7th | Unsigned | Liiga
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Brunicke | RD | 2024 | 2nd | Signed | WHL
Howe | LW | 2024 | 2nd | Signed | WHL
Pietila | RD | 2024 | 4th | Unsigned | NCAA
Väisänen | RD | 2024 | 6th | Unsigned | USHL
Swanson | C | 2024 | 7th | Unsigned | NCAA
Harding | RD | 2024 | 7th | Unsigned | OHL

*Collins, signing rights have expired, was the only undrafted free agent in this period.
**Swoyer is the only UDFA signed in the 3 year timespan and has left the org.
***Yager was traded to WPG for McGroarty.

(inserting mandatory “it won’t matter, Sullivan won’t play them anyway” comment)

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Comparing draft capital:

Quantity, round, year
1st | 2x | 2022, 2023
2nd | 2x | 2024 (2)
3rd | 1x | 2023
4th | 2x | 2022, 2024
5th | 1x | 2023
6th | 4x | 2022 (2), 2023, 2024
7th | 4x | 2023 (2), 2024 (2)
UD | 1x | 2022
For a total of 17 picks and one undrafted FA.

1st | 3x [+1] | 2025, 2026, 2027
2nd | 2x [=0] | 2026, 2027
3rd | 6x [+5] | 2025 (3), 2026 (2), 2027
4th | 4x [+2] | 2025, 2026, 2027 (2)
5th | 3x [+2] | 2025, 2026, 2027
6th | 3x [-1] | 2025, 2026, 2027
7th | 3x [-1] | 2025, 2026, 2027
For a total of 26 [+9] picks in the next 3 years.

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Some thoughts

Dubas has indicated he wants to make the Penguins competitive as soon as possible, without sacrificing the future. So far, I think the emphasis is heavily on the latter part of that. This off-season, GMKD signed a number of short term contracts and took on players with draft picks attached; reclamation projects. Not expending draft capital or prospects seems to be the greater priority.

When he's traded picks, it has been to upgrade the pick. He has traded two prospects. Top prospect Yager for McGroarty, hoping to upgrade to a more NHL ready player with a higher ceiling (and lower floor). And he traded Frasca and 2.5M cap space for Glass, a 3rd and 6th.

Unsurprisingly, the only signed players are the top 2 drafted players for each of the past three years. Being NHL-ready or close to is perhaps the most important factor in the draft (duh). Mid and late rounders from the 2021 draft and before... there's only Puustinen (2019, 7th). Ansons (2020, 5th) looks to have hit his ceiling at the AHL. Belliveau (2021, 5th) spends his time skating for Wheeling.

Higher draft picks.. Blomqvist (2020, 2nd) is going to share AHL duties with Murashov. The guy is close. Broz (2021, 2nd) will debut in the AHL this year, he'll either continue to impress or be a dud. Poulin (2019, 1st) is ready for the NHL and needs to be tested this season, there's a crowd in front of him, so he needs to really excell to get any kind of shot. No longer exempt, he'll get waived. The rest of the prior drafts are gone.

Only two undrafted free agents signed by the Pens in recent memory. Zohorna and O'Connor, both signed in 2020.

FLPensFan · Post by **FLPensFan** » Sat Aug 24, 2024 11:33 am

I guess the scary thing may be, what if this team is actually in the playoff race come the trade deadline? Even if Dubas says he's not making any big trade deadline acquisitions, not trading away some of are UFAs could be an issue as well.

Ideally, I want this team to be competitive, improve the the PP, rebound season from Graves and Karlsson, growth from DOC, and McGroarty making an NHL impact (not much to ask for, right), but the team falling short of playoffs this year. Make everything about 25-26 and forward.

At the deadline, make the following trades:
--MP for a 2025 1st and a prospect
--Grzelcyk for a 2025 2nd and a prospect
--Eller for a 2027 3rd and a prospect
--Ideally, you also move one of Acciari/Hayes, as well as Beauvillier, but not counting them for now.

That would up our draft capital to:
--1st rounders - 2 in 2025, 1 in 2026, 1 in 2027
--2nd rounders - 1 in 2025, 2 in 2026, 2 in 2027
--3rd rounders - 3 in 2025, 2 in 2026, 2 in 2027

Then at the drafts, I'd be looking to parlay a few of those 3rds into 2nd round picks. But, that is still 16 picks in the top 3 rounds of the next 3 drafts. That's a draft warchest that will start restoring our prospect system. Even if they don't hit on the generational or elite level guy in those 1st round picks, they still start hoarding guys who have waiver eligibility and can have a much more flexible roster mixed in with vets added via free agency.

Puck-Lurker · Post by **Puck-Lurker** » Mon Aug 26, 2024 5:12 pm

Two scenarios, we either get on track for a playoff spot -- or we don't.

We're not going to make it:
Say we're on the outside looking in with a beggar's chance of getting in the playoffs. Move everything that isn't bolted down for picks and prospects. Pettersson would top my list, I don't think we can afford to keep him (his next salary). He'll be more expensive than Graves, I imagine.

We're going to make it:
Say we're looking to be headed for ME3. Some people have a resurgence here, they 'get to their game', are 'harder to play against', are 'stiff on the puck', 'play responsibly', 'reward themselves', whatever. Maybe don't trade everyone... but if there are deals to be had to trade Pettersson, Beauvillier, Grzelcyk and Eller.. I'd still pull the trigger on all of those in the knowledge that wouldn't necessarily have "ruined" chances at a playoff run.

I really hope Dubas sticks to the plan he's committed to; 1.) Picks & Prospects, 2.) Mid 20s, short term reclamation projects, 3.) Field a scrappy team to still compete, wouldn't do to swerve

FLPensFan · Post by **FLPensFan** » Tue Aug 27, 2024 1:16 am

OK, it's taken me two days, but I've crunched a bunch of numbers on Penguins draft picks. I've pulled some data, looking at the NHL drafts AFTER Dom Simon was drafted...so I looked at the 2016 through 2021 NHL drafts, 6 years. I also looked to see how the Penguins compared to Boston, Washington, and Tampa because in terms of Cups, regular season and playoff win rates during this period, these are their closest peers.

Before showing the data, I'm going to list a few conclusions FIRST. Those conclusions are:

--The Penguins BADLY missed in 2016, which looks to have been a deep draft. They got NHL games out of Gustavsson and Bjorkqvist. Then they took 4 defenseman, 3 of which never even made it into the Penguins organization. The 4th, Niclas Almari, played some WBS games and went back to Europe. Guys taken by the peer group in 2016: Charlie McAvoy, Trent Frederic, Ryan Lindgren, Ross Colton, Connor Ingram. Other players taken include Brandon Hagel, Jesper Bratt, Adam Fox, Alex DeBrincat, Hronek, Girard, and Duhaime. The 2nd round was really strong, and the Penguins were near the end of that round. They should have moved up and taken a better pick than Bjorkqvist for sure.

--Across these 4 teams and these 6 drafts, the Penguins got only 331 total NHL man games from these drafts in 31 total picks. The other 3 teams all got over 1000 NHL games from their 30+ picks (WSH a little over 1000, BOS & TB got a little over 1600 games each) That sounds REALLY bad, but, across these 4 teams, there's only 4 players that I would say had a really big impact on their team, and one of them was not for their draft team. McAvoy and Frederic for Boston, Colton for Tampa, and then Ryan Lindgren for the Rangers. The rest of these guys that have put up a lot of NHL games either did it for other teams, or were very minimal impact players. There aren't ANY "Hey, that guy was a solid 3rd line mainstay for 400 games for team X."

--I may take a look later in the week at some teams that were continually drafting near the top, meaning...they weren't very good. I think the results from the Penguins peers, who hit on a couple more players and got a lot more games but still no big stars, is indicating what we've all known...you really have to be bad to draft and develop good. It's more about the good draft position than just hitting on good players constantly.

So, the Penguins could stand to hit on more talent...but...does it REALLY MATTER? If you aren't getting top 4 d-men, top 6 forward, or starting goalie, most of these draft picks are going to bounce around the NHL looking for work. This again highlights the emphasis on drafting well in the top 3 rounds of the draft, where 90% of the high end talent lies.

Anyways, here's the numbers inside the SPOILER TAG:

Spoiler:

100565 · Post by **100565** » Tue Aug 27, 2024 8:23 am

I went to NHL stats > skaters. Seasons 2013-14 through 2023-2024. Sum results. Report = bio info. Sorted by points.

I exported top 200. McDavid was first with 982 points. Bjugstad was 200th with 310 points.

Out of the top 200 point producers during those 10 years:
131 were drafted in first round
24 were drafted in second round
13 were drafted in third round
8 were drafted in fourth round
6 were drafted in fifth round
6 were drafted in sixth round
4 were drafted in seventh round
8 were undrafted.

Out of the 131 first rounders the average “overall “ draft position was 10.71.

52 players taken 1-5 overall
24 players taken 6-10 overall
16 players taken 11-15 overall
15 players taken 16-20 overall
13 players taken 21-25 overall
11 players taken 26-30 overall
69 players taken 31 overall through undrafted

Over 25% of the top 200 point producers during that 10 year time frame were top 5 picks. Almost 40% were top 10 picks. Nearly half of the top 200 point producers during that time frame were top 15 picks. (92 players out of 200 players)

Daniel · Post by **Daniel** » Tue Aug 27, 2024 9:51 am

FLPensFan wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2024 1:16 am
OK, it's taken me two days, but I've crunched a bunch of numbers on Penguins draft picks. I've pulled some data, looking at the NHL drafts AFTER Dom Simon was drafted...so I looked at the 2016 through 2021 NHL drafts, 6 years. I also looked to see how the Penguins compared to Boston, Washington, and Tampa because in terms of Cups, regular season and playoff win rates during this period, these are their closest peers.

Before showing the data, I'm going to list a few conclusions FIRST. Those conclusions are:

--The Penguins BADLY missed in 2016, which looks to have been a deep draft. They got NHL games out of Gustavsson and Bjorkqvist. Then they took 4 defenseman, 3 of which never even made it into the Penguins organization. The 4th, Niclas Almari, played some WBS games and went back to Europe. Guys taken by the peer group in 2016: Charlie McAvoy, Trent Frederic, Ryan Lindgren, Ross Colton, Connor Ingram. Other players taken include Brandon Hagel, Jesper Bratt, Adam Fox, Alex DeBrincat, Hronek, Girard, and Duhaime. The 2nd round was really strong, and the Penguins were near the end of that round. They should have moved up and taken a better pick than Bjorkqvist for sure.

--Across these 4 teams and these 6 drafts, the Penguins got only 331 total NHL man games from these drafts in 31 total picks. The other 3 teams all got over 1000 NHL games from their 30+ picks (WSH a little over 1000, BOS & TB got a little over 1600 games each) That sounds REALLY bad, but, across these 4 teams, there's only 4 players that I would say had a really big impact on their team, and one of them was not for their draft team. McAvoy and Frederic for Boston, Colton for Tampa, and then Ryan Lindgren for the Rangers. The rest of these guys that have put up a lot of NHL games either did it for other teams, or were very minimal impact players. There aren't ANY "Hey, that guy was a solid 3rd line mainstay for 400 games for team X."

--I may take a look later in the week at some teams that were continually drafting near the top, meaning...they weren't very good. I think the results from the Penguins peers, who hit on a couple more players and got a lot more games but still no big stars, is indicating what we've all known...you really have to be bad to draft and develop good. It's more about the good draft position than just hitting on good players constantly.

So, the Penguins could stand to hit on more talent...but...does it REALLY MATTER? If you aren't getting top 4 d-men, top 6 forward, or starting goalie, most of these draft picks are going to bounce around the NHL looking for work. This again highlights the emphasis on drafting well in the top 3 rounds of the draft, where 90% of the high end talent lies.

Anyways, here's the numbers inside the SPOILER TAG:
Spoiler:
I wanted to point out one number that I used in this analysis...average draft spot. This was determined by taking the overall pick number for each draft choice, then dividing by the total number of picks for that team. For some reference, if Team X had all their draft picks in each of the 7th round, and that team drafted 1st in each round, their average draft pick spot would be 97. And for a team that had all of their own picks, and drafted last in each round, their average draft pick spot would be 128. So, when you see a number below 98, that typically means the team had multiple 1st or 2nd round picks (and maybe even no later round picks). BOS had the lowest average pick spot of the teams I looked at, with an 88 in 2016 (two 1sts, McAvoy and Frederic) and WSH had an 81.2 in 2019 (only a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th lowered their score)

Pittsburgh
-2016 - 6 picks, average pick spot 107.6. 117 NHL Games played from this draft (Gustavsson and Bjorkqvist)
-2017 - 6 picks, average pick spot 142.3. 0 NHL Games played from this draft
-2018 - 4 picks, average pick spot 104. 155 NHL Games played from this draft (Addison and Hallander)
-2019 - 5 picks, average pick spot 130.8. 59 NHL Games played from this draft (Poulin and Puustinen)
-2020 - 5 picks, average pick spot 111.2. 0 NHL Games played from this draft (Blomqvist best chance)
-2021 - 5 picks, average pick spot 167.8. 0 NHL Games played from this draft (Broz best chance)
-From 15-16 to 20-21 season, Penguins had 4th most regular season wins; 2nd most playoff wins; 2 Stanley Cups
-31 total picks, Total NHL games played from 6 drafts, 331. Players over 100 NHL games played from these drafts, 2 (Addison, Gustavsson)

Boston
-2016 - 6 picks, average pick spot was 88. 1136 NHL Games played from this draft (McAvoy, Frederic, Lindgren, Koppanen, Steen)
-2017 - 6 picks, average pick spot was 125.6. 375 NHL Games played from this draft (Vaakanainen, Swayman, Studnicka)
-2018 - 5 picks, average pick spot was 129.2. 83 NHL Games played from this draft (Lauko)
-2019 - 5 picks, average pick spot was 130.6. 52 NHL Games played from this draft (Beecher)
-2020 - 4 picks, average pick spot was 120. 31 NHL Games played from this draft (Lohrei)
-2021 - 7 picks, average pick spot was 140.4. 0 NHL Games played from this draft
-From 15-16 to 2021 season, Boston had 3rd most regular season wins; 6th most playoff wins; 0 Stanley Cups
-33 total picks, Total NHL games played from 6 drafts, 1677. Players over 100 NHL games played from these drafts, 6 (McAvoy, Frederic, Lindgren, Vaakanainen, Studnicka, Swayman)

Washington
-2016 - 7 picks, average pick spot 129.7. 220 NHL Games Played from this draft (Malenstyn, Jonsson-Fjallby, 3 under 10 games)
-2017 - 4 picks, average pick spot 166.5. 0 NHL Games played from this draft
-2018 - 7 picks, average pick spot 102.7. 290 NHL Games played from this draft (Alexeyev, Fehervary)
-2019 - 4 picks, average pick spot 81.2. 482 NHL Games played from this draft (McMichael, Leason, Protas)
-2020 - 5 picks, average pick spot 135.4. 57 NHL Games played from this draft (Lapierre)
-2021 - 6 picks, average pick spot 127.3. 9 NHL Games played from this draft (Iorio)
-From 15-16 to 2021 season, Capitals have most wins in the NHL regular season; 4th in playoff wins. 1 Stanley Cup
-33 total picks, Total NHL games played from 6 drafts, 1058. Players over 100 NHL games played from these drafts,5 (Malenstyn, Fehervary, McMichael, Leason, Protas)

Tampa
-2016 - 10 picks, average pick spot 111.2. 1212 NHL Games Played from this draft (Howden, Hajek, Katchouk, Raddysh, Ingram, Colton)
-2017 - 6 picks, average pick spot 114.5. 391 NHL Games played from this draft (Foote, Perbix, 3 others under 50 games)
-2018 - 7 picks, average pick spot 146.4. 46 NHL Games played from this draft (nobody notable)
-2019 - 7 picks, average pick spot 128.5. 37 NHL Games played from this draft (nobody notable)
-2020 - 9 picks, average pick spot 124.4. 5 NHL Games played from this draft (nobody notable)
-2021 - 7 picks, average pick spot 172.1. 0 NHL Games played from this draft
-From 15-16 to 2021 season, Tampa had 2nd most regular season wins; Tampa had most playoff wins; 2 Stanley Cups
-total picks, Total NHL games played from 6 drafts, 1691 . Players over 100 NHL games played from these drafts, 7 (Howden, Hajek, Katchouk, Raddysh, Colton, Foote, Perbix)

Thing with all the "we missed draft XYZ player" is this. I think if you switched those players with the players the Penguins drafted we'd be having the opposite conversation. As bad as the Penguins draft is, the issue is more about development and opportunity, mostly opportunity. How could McAvoy, for example, have made the roster when the Penguins have 6-8 NHL defensemen going into training camp every year? How would he have earned a spot due to injury when he's one mistake away from back to WBS? Sullivan doesn't really have the patience for mistakes by players with less than 100 NHL games other than a few exception (Pettersson as a prime example, but he wasn't a Penguins draft pick). I doubt he lets McAvoy work it out on the 3rd pairing then move up to the 2nd and ultimately earn a 1st pairing role.

There is a reason 20-23 year old draft players would prefer to play in Europe. They see the writing on the wall so they might as well salvage a career rather than let the Penguins ruin it.

Puck-Lurker · Post by **Puck-Lurker** » Tue Aug 27, 2024 11:00 am

Daniel wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2024 9:51 am
Thing with all the "we missed draft XYZ player" is this. I think if you switched those players with the players the Penguins drafted we'd be having the opposite conversation. As bad as the Penguins draft is, the issue is more about development and opportunity, mostly opportunity. How could McAvoy, for example, have made the roster when the Penguins have 6-8 NHL defensemen going into training camp every year? How would he have earned a spot due to injury when he's one mistake away from back to WBS? Sullivan doesn't really have the patience for mistakes by players with less than 100 NHL games other than a few exception (Pettersson as a prime example, but he wasn't a Penguins draft pick). I doubt he lets McAvoy work it out on the 3rd pairing then move up to the 2nd and ultimately earn a 1st pairing role.

There is a reason 20-23 year old draft players would prefer to play in Europe. They see the writing on the wall so they might as well salvage a career rather than let the Penguins ruin it.

We would have done better.. but still.. org hasn't been good at developing drafted players.

And I'll place a lot of blame at Sullivan's feet. Since that back to back cup run, adding one player after the other from the farm, giving them ice to work and improve, adding energy... It's been an abject wasteland.

He loved Simon. That was about it. The rest... You'd get Hinostroza, Carter and the likes.. Harkins holding a job over Puustinen. No... Get out of town and let the guys come up. We have okay pluggers and fodder. They might not be great, but you can't tell me they shouldn't be dressed over JMFC and JMFH

Daniel · Post by **Daniel** » Tue Aug 27, 2024 11:52 am

Puck-Lurker wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2024 11:00 am

Daniel wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2024 9:51 am
Thing with all the "we missed draft XYZ player" is this. I think if you switched those players with the players the Penguins drafted we'd be having the opposite conversation. As bad as the Penguins draft is, the issue is more about development and opportunity, mostly opportunity. How could McAvoy, for example, have made the roster when the Penguins have 6-8 NHL defensemen going into training camp every year? How would he have earned a spot due to injury when he's one mistake away from back to WBS? Sullivan doesn't really have the patience for mistakes by players with less than 100 NHL games other than a few exception (Pettersson as a prime example, but he wasn't a Penguins draft pick). I doubt he lets McAvoy work it out on the 3rd pairing then move up to the 2nd and ultimately earn a 1st pairing role.

There is a reason 20-23 year old draft players would prefer to play in Europe. They see the writing on the wall so they might as well salvage a career rather than let the Penguins ruin it.
We would have done better.. but still.. org hasn't been good at developing drafted players.

And I'll place a lot of blame at Sullivan's feet. Since that back to back cup run, adding one player after the other from the farm, giving them ice to work and improve, adding energy... It's been an abject wasteland.

He loved Simon. That was about it. The rest... You'd get Hinostroza, Carter and the likes.. Harkins holding a job over Puustinen. No... Get out of town and let the guys come up. We have okay pluggers and fodder. They might not be great, but you can't tell me they shouldn't be dressed over JMFC and JMFH

I can't remember the last time this franchise had a good farm system, if ever. Even when they were building with Sid and Geno the farm system wasn't great in terms of top end talent. Thing is though, they had 3 generational talents (4 if you include Fleury) and didn't need blue chip prospects. A good franchise will have 1-2 kids per year start off at the bottom line/pairing. Rotate if you have to, but need to stop the mentality of 100+ NHL games is better than anyone they can possibly draft.

They wonder why the bottom six isn't good. How good would the team be with Lafferty, Poulin, Puustinen, Hallander, Bjorkqvist, even Legare competing for then earning spots rather than gifting spots to random scrubs? But hey, scrubs can play the PK which ironically tends to be average so why are the PK playing scrubs on the roster?

Post by **Antonio** » Tue Aug 27, 2024 12:14 pm

It's almost like we need a new set of humans responsible for managing, evaluating, and developing our players and making the decisions with regards to who and how they get to play on the ice.

Puck-Lurker · Post by **Puck-Lurker** » Tue Aug 27, 2024 12:23 pm

Antonio wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2024 12:14 pm
It's almost like we need a new set of humans responsible for managing, evaluating, and developing our players and making the decisions with regards to who and how they get to play on the ice.

Dude, I get this weird feeling you dislike Sullivan or something

(tell us how you really feel)

Daniel · Post by **Daniel** » Tue Aug 27, 2024 12:43 pm

Antonio wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2024 12:14 pm
It's almost like we need a new set of humans responsible for managing, evaluating, and developing our players and making the decisions with regards to who and how they get to play on the ice.

It doesn’t matter, the buck stops at Sullivan. So do the opportunities for young players.

Post by **Antonio** » Tue Aug 27, 2024 2:18 pm

Yeah perhaps my smart assery made it unclear who I was referring to.

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