The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race

[Victor]

Pre-trade dealine standings have 6 teams under 60 points.

Pittsburgh 64gp, 58p, 1-5-1 since 4 Nations break
Seattle 63gp, 56p, 2-3 since 4 Nations break
Buffalo 61gp, 54p, 2-3-1 since 4 Nations break
Nashville 62gp, 53p, 4-4 since 4 Nations break

Penguins are falling faster than other teams. They still have a shot at 3rd best odds for draft lottery.

Other two teams are Chicago and San Jose, who very likely will finish in as the bottom 2 teams.

[ahawk9]

Watched some of Buffalo-Tampa last night. The Sabres blew a chance to pick up at least a point, even though I marked it down as a regulation loss before the game just because of the teams involved. Jake helped put in the dagger with the hatty. ...Also, Nashville has made a little push lately. Keep it up, Preds!

[thehockeyguru]

Seattle looking like they'll get 2 points against Philly up 4-1

[Victor]

Seattle looking like they'll get 2 points against Philly up 4-1

Seattle did indeed win 4-1. They are now tied with the Penguins in points with 58, but still have one game in hand and also hold the first tiebraker, with 22 regulation wins over 16 for Pittsburgh.

Only team with fewer regulation wins is San Jose with 12. Chicago and Philly each has 17, Anaheim has 19.

[Michael74]

Rags lost in OT to OTT! They scored in last min then won in OT! THANK YOU OTT!

[DelPen]

I think we will see 3rd worst finish and at worst a top 5 pick.

[Victor]

Nashville also won last night. They now won 3 in a row and moved past Buffalo with 55 points, 3 behind Pittsburgh with 2 games in hand.

[thehockeyguru]

Nashville also won last night. They now won 3 in a row and moved past Buffalo with 55 points, 3 behind Pittsburgh with 2 games in hand.

We must get into the bottom 3. If we can land one of Schaefer, Misa, or Hagens it would be HUGE

[thehockeyguru]

Wow huge win for the Sabres over Edmonton

[FLPensFan]

Nashville also won last night. They now won 3 in a row and moved past Buffalo with 55 points, 3 behind Pittsburgh with 2 games in hand.

We must get into the bottom 3. If we can land one of Schaefer, Misa, or Hagens it would be HUGE

As much as I didn't think it was possible to get 3rd...it is. Nashville has started winning.

NSH in 3rd is 5 points behind us with 3 games in hand, 6-4 in their last 10
BUF in 4th is 4 points behind us with 3 games in hand, 3-6-1 in their last 10
SEA in 5th is 2 points behind us with 1 game in hand, 4-6 in their last 10

Pittsburgh is 2-7-1 in our last 10.
Pittsburgh has 60 points with 16 games remaining. Highest possible point total is 92.
Pittsburgh points percentage is .455. Let's assume it's .500. That means their highest possible point total is 76.

Ottawa sits in WC2 spot with 69 points, with 4 games in hand on the Penguins. They have 20 games remaining. If they win half those points, they finish with 89 points.

Next 3 games for Pittsburgh are Vegas, St. Louis, NJ. I'd predict 1 win out of those 3 games, putting us at 62 points.
Next 3 games for Buffalo are Detroit, Vegas, Boston. I think Buffalo can get 1 win out of those games. They split series with DET (1-1-1) and BOS (1-1) to date.
Next 3 games for Settle are Montreal, Utah, and Winnipeg. I think Seattle can win 1 and likely 2.

[Michael74]

Nashville also won last night. They now won 3 in a row and moved past Buffalo with 55 points, 3 behind Pittsburgh with 2 games in hand.

We must get into the bottom 3. If we can land one of Schaefer, Misa, or Hagens it would be HUGE

As much as I didn't think it was possible to get 3rd...it is. Nashville has started winning.

NSH in 3rd is 5 points behind us with 3 games in hand, 6-4 in their last 10
BUF in 4th is 4 points behind us with 3 games in hand, 3-6-1 in their last 10
SEA in 5th is 2 points behind us with 1 game in hand, 4-6 in their last 10

Pittsburgh is 2-7-1 in our last 10.
Pittsburgh has 60 points with 16 games remaining. Highest possible point total is 92.
Pittsburgh points percentage is .455. Let's assume it's .500. That means their highest possible point total is 76.

Ottawa sits in WC2 spot with 69 points, with 4 games in hand on the Penguins. They have 20 games remaining. If they win half those points, they finish with 89 points.

Next 3 games for Pittsburgh are Vegas, St. Louis, NJ. I'd predict 1 win out of those 3 games, putting us at 62 points.
Next 3 games for Buffalo are Detroit, Vegas, Boston. I think Buffalo can get 1 win out of those games. They split series with DET (1-1-1) and BOS (1-1) to date.
Next 3 games for Settle are Montreal, Utah, and Winnipeg. I think Seattle can win 1 and likely 2.

We'll be fortunate to finish sixth. Here's why: Philly is just dreadful and we'll pass them up because they had their mini run and we're unfortunately due for one ourselves. Teams woefully out of it like PIT will win games they shouldn't. They're playing for pride dontcha know, even though it'll mess up draft position Sullivan will have them block every shot, never say die rah rah and all that. We will not finish above 5th OA. Again if we finish 6th OA we'll take it. I just hope it doesn't get worse than 7TH OA. No way are we finishing 3rd or 4th. Sullivan teams don't quit. I sincerely hope the Golden knoights win tomorrow. If we win tomorrow that could spawn a mini run and could louse things up. Tomorrow (later today) is very important. Teams behind us are not the only teams to watch. Philly, Anaheim, even the Isles and Bruins could fall off. Not all of them, but one or two could. We're two points behind Philly and they have a brutal schedule. I'll make a gentlemens bet that they'll beat us out for last in the division.

[EndO FanEra]

Nashville also won last night. They now won 3 in a row and moved past Buffalo with 55 points, 3 behind Pittsburgh with 2 games in hand.

We must get into the bottom 3. If we can land one of Schaefer, Misa, or Hagens it would be HUGE

As much as I didn't think it was possible to get 3rd...it is. Nashville has started winning.

NSH in 3rd is 5 points behind us with 3 games in hand, 6-4 in their last 10
BUF in 4th is 4 points behind us with 3 games in hand, 3-6-1 in their last 10
SEA in 5th is 2 points behind us with 1 game in hand, 4-6 in their last 10

Pittsburgh is 2-7-1 in our last 10.
Pittsburgh has 60 points with 16 games remaining. Highest possible point total is 92.
Pittsburgh points percentage is .455. Let's assume it's .500. That means their highest possible point total is 76.

Ottawa sits in WC2 spot with 69 points, with 4 games in hand on the Penguins. They have 20 games remaining. If they win half those points, they finish with 89 points.

Next 3 games for Pittsburgh are Vegas, St. Louis, NJ. I'd predict 1 win out of those 3 games, putting us at 62 points.
Next 3 games for Buffalo are Detroit, Vegas, Boston. I think Buffalo can get 1 win out of those games. They split series with DET (1-1-1) and BOS (1-1) to date.
Next 3 games for Settle are Montreal, Utah, and Winnipeg. I think Seattle can win 1 and likely 2.

We'll be fortunate to finish sixth. Here's why: Philly is just dreadful and we'll pass them up because they had their mini run and we're unfortunately due for one ourselves. Teams woefully out of it like PIT will win games they shouldn't. They're playing for pride dontcha know, even though it'll mess up draft position Sullivan will have them block every shot, never say die rah rah and all that. We will not finish above 5th OA. Again if we finish 6th OA we'll take it. I just hope it doesn't get worse than 7TH OA. No way are we finishing 3rd or 4th. Sullivan teams don't quit. I sincerely hope the Golden knoights win tomorrow. If we win tomorrow that could spawn a mini run and could louse things up. Tomorrow (later today) is very important. Teams behind us are not the only teams to watch. Philly, Anaheim, even the Isles and Bruins could fall off. Not all of them, but one or two could. We're two points behind Philly and they have a brutal schedule. I'll make a gentlemens bet that they'll beat us out for last in the division.

Keep in mind, where we finish doesn't necessarily equate to where we draft. Depending on the lottery, we could be drafting 1 or 2 slots below where we finish. Imagine if we finish 4/5 with a shot at one of the top tear, and we end up dropping to 6/7 because of the lottery. Talk about a kick in the groin.

IIRC, the traditional 10/11 team lottery has not been friendly to the Pens. Other than the 1-off Sid lottery, I think we dropped from 2 to 3 in the Flower draft (having to trade up to 1 to draft him) and 1 to 2 in the Geno draft (missing out on Ovi). Stayed pat at 2 for the Staal draft.

Let's hope the hockey gods smile on us one more time to add a future star and captain. Maybe we move up 1 or 2 instead of down, and actually have a shot at a Hagens or Misa. One can dream...

[Michael74]

Nashville also won last night. They now won 3 in a row and moved past Buffalo with 55 points, 3 behind Pittsburgh with 2 games in hand.

We must get into the bottom 3. If we can land one of Schaefer, Misa, or Hagens it would be HUGE

As much as I didn't think it was possible to get 3rd...it is. Nashville has started winning.

NSH in 3rd is 5 points behind us with 3 games in hand, 6-4 in their last 10
BUF in 4th is 4 points behind us with 3 games in hand, 3-6-1 in their last 10
SEA in 5th is 2 points behind us with 1 game in hand, 4-6 in their last 10

Pittsburgh is 2-7-1 in our last 10.
Pittsburgh has 60 points with 16 games remaining. Highest possible point total is 92.
Pittsburgh points percentage is .455. Let's assume it's .500. That means their highest possible point total is 76.

Ottawa sits in WC2 spot with 69 points, with 4 games in hand on the Penguins. They have 20 games remaining. If they win half those points, they finish with 89 points.

Next 3 games for Pittsburgh are Vegas, St. Louis, NJ. I'd predict 1 win out of those 3 games, putting us at 62 points.
Next 3 games for Buffalo are Detroit, Vegas, Boston. I think Buffalo can get 1 win out of those games. They split series with DET (1-1-1) and BOS (1-1) to date.
Next 3 games for Settle are Montreal, Utah, and Winnipeg. I think Seattle can win 1 and likely 2.

We'll be fortunate to finish sixth. Here's why: Philly is just dreadful and we'll pass them up because they had their mini run and we're unfortunately due for one ourselves. Teams woefully out of it like PIT will win games they shouldn't. They're playing for pride dontcha know, even though it'll mess up draft position Sullivan will have them block every shot, never say die rah rah and all that. We will not finish above 5th OA. Again if we finish 6th OA we'll take it. I just hope it doesn't get worse than 7TH OA. No way are we finishing 3rd or 4th. Sullivan teams don't quit. I sincerely hope the Golden knoights win tomorrow. If we win tomorrow that could spawn a mini run and could louse things up. Tomorrow (later today) is very important. Teams behind us are not the only teams to watch. Philly, Anaheim, even the Isles and Bruins could fall off. Not all of them, but one or two could. We're two points behind Philly and they have a brutal schedule. I'll make a gentlemens bet that they'll beat us out for last in the division.

Keep in mind, where we finish doesn't necessarily equate to where we draft. Depending on the lottery, we could be drafting 1 or 2 slots below where we finish. Imagine if we finish 4/5 with a shot at one of the top tear, and we end up dropping to 6/7 because of the lottery. Talk about a kick in the groin.

IIRC, the traditional 10/11 team lottery has not been friendly to the Pens. Other than the 1-off Sid lottery, I think we dropped from 2 to 3 in the Flower draft (having to trade up to 1 to draft him) and 1 to 2 in the Geno draft (missing out on Ovi). Stayed pat at 2 for the Staal draft.

Let's hope the hockey gods smile on us one more time to add a future star and captain. Maybe we move up 1 or 2 instead of down, and actually have a shot at a Hagens or Misa. One can dream...

I was speaking only where we'd end up in the standings. But Yes, the Lottery could either elevate us or drop us down. But let's say we finish 6th OA. Chances are better we'll either move up or stay at that position than having to move down. If say we'd finish 8th OA then yes it could get dicey. Looking at the current odds if we finish in the standings where we're currently situated we have aprox a 15% chance to end up in the top two, but a 91% chance to finish no lower than 7th.

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

[Michael74]

Looking at that graph SJ has a better chance to get 3rd OA than 1st. Even though they have the worst record, that doesn't seem right to me.

[Michael74]

Results like tonight are why we won't be in the bottom five. And the next two are very winnable. So, we'll be lucky for 7th or 8th OA. Great job Jarry!

[EndO FanEra]

Results like tonight are why we won't be in the bottom five. And the next two are very winnable. So, we'll be lucky for 7th or 8th OA. Great job Jarry!

Yep, totally frustrating. I'm sure, as a player, they're playing hard and trying to win. It's their job. But, come on, how can they manage to look so bad and disjointed throughout the season, only to find a groove now, when it will serve as a detriment.

[ahawk9]

I remember Eddie Johnston talked about how the players never try to tank. The management - especially in 1983-84 with Lemieux as the prize - put the team in a (ahem) position to tank.

I found this on hockey-graphs.com from an article titled "The Art of Tanking":

"While the Penguins’ GM of the time, Eddie Johnston, has never admitted to tanking on purpose, coach Lou Angotti said they did, and even recounted a game against the Rangers when Johnston stormed into the coach’s office to complain about a 3-1 lead after the 1st period. It was also Johnston who traded away top defenseman Randy Carlyle for no readily active players 50 games in and sent relatively strong performing goaltender Roberto Romano down to the AHL in favor of the identifiably-worse Vincent Tremblay."

It goes so against my DNA to root against the Pens but a win or two more at the end of the '83-'84 season, and the Lemieux statue resides in Newark and the Penguins are in Saskatoon.

Not that things are that dire now but I'm hoping for losses as long as Sid gets a point or two each game.

[Michael74]

Results like tonight are why we won't be in the bottom five. And the next two are very winnable. So, we'll be lucky for 7th or 8th OA. Great job Jarry!

Yep, totally frustrating. I'm sure, as a player, they're playing hard and trying to win. It's their job. But, come on, how can they manage to look so bad and disjointed throughout the season, only to find a groove now, when it will serve as a detriment.

They have no pressure anymore, so now they can just throw it all out there to the detriment of the future.

[ahawk9]

Seattle with the win last night! Sadly, I think Buffalo is about to finish the season about 2-14, so no hope they’ll make a run. Philly is flailing, too. Hoping Nashville continues its run and can pass the Pens to make up for a couple of slides…

[Ohio_Pens_fan]

Tanking for Mario, or any once-in-a-lifetime talent, I can understand. Right now there aren't any of those type of players available so I'll continue to watch them compete as best they can and take whatever pick we get. I just can't root against them.

[FLPensFan]

Tanking for Mario, or any once-in-a-lifetime talent, I can understand. Right now there aren't any of those type of players available so I'll continue to watch them compete as best they can and take whatever pick we get. I just can't root against them.

True, but at the same time, picking 4-6 should give us our best chance at talent since Guentzel as a 3rd rounder in 2013 or Staal as a 1st rounder in 2006. And if we end up picking 8th or higher, there is a huge drop off in the quality of the player. They may not be generational, but, we are already bad this season. I'd rather see us grab a very good player in a draft with a limited amount of good players, then be outside that "good player" range and draft someone that in other drafts could have been taken by most playoff teams in the 1st round (in the 20s overall).

We're here and in the spot now. Grab it while we can, instead of needing to be this bad several more times in the next few years. For me, I cannot stress the importance and how much it should jumpstart Dubas's quick rebuild plan if we can get a Desnoyers or Frondell level center, and add someone like Nemec via trade. Let's just spit ball numbers, and say getting those 2 level of players gives me 80-90% confidence in the Dubas plan...while picking 8th or worse and getting an average level draft pick, and not picking up any other young guys via trade....puts me at like 25% confidence level.

[Daniel]

Tanking for Mario, or any once-in-a-lifetime talent, I can understand. Right now there aren't any of those type of players available so I'll continue to watch them compete as best they can and take whatever pick we get. I just can't root against them.

True, but at the same time, picking 4-6 should give us our best chance at talent since Guentzel as a 3rd rounder in 2013 or Staal as a 1st rounder in 2006. And if we end up picking 8th or higher, there is a huge drop off in the quality of the player. They may not be generational, but, we are already bad this season. I'd rather see us grab a very good player in a draft with a limited amount of good players, then be outside that "good player" range and draft someone that in other drafts could have been taken by most playoff teams in the 1st round (in the 20s overall).

We're here and in the spot now. Grab it while we can, instead of needing to be this bad several more times in the next few years. For me, I cannot stress the importance and how much it should jumpstart Dubas's quick rebuild plan if we can get a Desnoyers or Frondell level center, and add someone like Nemec via trade. Let's just spit ball numbers, and say getting those 2 level of players gives me 80-90% confidence in the Dubas plan...while picking 8th or worse and getting an average level draft pick, and not picking up any other young guys via trade....puts me at like 25% confidence level.

I don't think there is a generational talent this year but 2026 has some top talent. Mathis Preston and Gavin McKenna might be generational talents. If the Penguins can get Preston and Desnoyers, that might be a nice 1-2 punch for the future. They already have depth pieces and would be 1 top defensemen (Hensler?) away from having a quick rebuild.

[Michael74]

I just hope we're in the bottom eight.

[Southern Fan]

Hopefully, Dubas hiring away Wes Clark from Toronto last summer has more of an impact on the Penguins future than jumping up 4 or 5 spots in the draft. There’s a long list of first round draft busts and you can come with a list of decent 2nd and 3rd round picks that are all stars.

Unless there is a miracle and we hit the lottery, no one we draft will help the core win a championship.

[thehockeyguru]

Vegas is struggling Buffalo beats them in OT