The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race

[Daniel]

That's where we will have to agree to disagree. Dubas didn't trade for Karlsson, resign Jarry, sign Graves and Accari for this team to miss the playoffs. All of those moves were win now moves and they have all proven to be poor decisions.

Because of those initial moves Dubas made there is a zero percent chance of us getting to the playoffs again in the Crosby era.

I'm not exactly sure what moves you would have wanted him to make though. Jarry - there really were no other options in free agency. Karlsson and Graves were comendable additions at the time. They backfired. Accari, eh, he is what he is.

As was stated the biggest problem at this time is purely lack of any talent in the pipeline. Constantly trading away 1st rounders for a run, and then not being able to draft quality players in later rounds is what the biggest issue is right now. Tampa was able to keep on motoring by letting UFA's walk and always having a younger player ready to step in. They've been doing that for more than a decade. They draft/develop very well. The Pens have been terrible drafters for ages. I would argue the strong commitment to "the core" is probably just as big an issue. But, I personally was on board with it. To be honest, I'm okay with a few crappy years in order to build back up. Ticket prices should come down some, or at least they will be running great promos to get people to the games! LOL

I disagree on the lack of talent in the pipeline. While they had no top end talent, they had plenty of 3rd/4th liners and some might have progressed to the 2nd. Not much D talent, I'll add that too.

I think the development and opportunities are more to blame than skill. When you have entire roster full of UFAs and make roster decisions based on waiver eligibility you aren't creating a competetive environment. No need to have signed the usual suspects when you can rotate waiver guys until one steps up (ERod, Jankowski, Nieto, Accari, etc). Every one of those spots could have been filled with 4-5 WBS guys who compete for 3-4 bottom six roles.

I didn't like the Karlsson trade when it happened and like it less now. Having two expensive no defense defensemen was a bad decision. Liked the Graves signing because that was an actual need. Jarry, like you said not many options.

[EndO FanEra]

Last night was the first time I can remember that I openly rooted for the Pens to lose.

I've been going into games with an indifferent mindset so far this season. Root for them to score, and disappointed when they get scored on. If they win, "Cool, well done boys". If they lose, "Cool, better draft pick".

I don't know if it was the fact that they were playing one of the few teams below them at this point, or if it was the total flatness that the game had, but it took less than 5 minutes before I was actively rooting for SJ to score and hoping the Pens did not.

Now that we are in the running for a top 5/10 pick, we HAVE TO make that happen. We're talking about a 1/2 a season at this point. We've already suffered enough over the past 8 years, just suck as bad as we can for the next few months. Get as low of a pick as we can, then get back to trying to win next season.

The difference between finishing 5th/6th and 15th/16th could dramatically change the trajectory of this franchise for years to come.

They are going to be worse next season, and the one after that, and the one after that, and the one after that.... This is the tradeoff for keeping the elders so that fans didn't have to get their feelings hurt by seeing former stars in different uniforms.

My mind has been in that space for a while now. Winning is cool, I prefer winning, losing sucks but hey, better drafting yeah? I don't believe in tanking though, ever. The players should play to win, every time. If management has made for a poor mix leading to a lot of losses, so be it. Ramming the iceberg on purpose with the Titanic is not my cup of tea.

We will be a bottom dweller for at least 3 seasons after this one I think. Draft well, draft early, draft often. Pick up reclamations and short deals and build.

You may be right about being a bottom dweller for another 3 seasons, but I don't think Dubas believes that. My guess is that he's hoping for a 2-year plan at this point. At least, that's what I'm still holding out hope for.

This season is obviously a lost cause.

25-26: My guess is that he'll try to infuse the youth into the regular lineups this season, with the hope that we'll improve on this current season. If Sully is gone, there is a chance we'll actually finish a little better. My guess is that we'll still be in the bottom half of the league either way. Better draft picks again.

26-27: I think we have the "potential" to be competitive this season. By that, I mean maybe making the playoffs. As bad as we were the past two seasons, we still flirted with playoffs. With the influx of youth, lots of cap space, a new coach, Sid eager for one last run, it might be possible. I think we'll be on the upswing again this season, but I'm not sure if it'll be enough to make the playoffs.

27-28: This is the season we should be back to making the playoffs. If we are not in the playoff picture at this point, I think Dubas has failed at what he set out to do. If we are in the playoffs but still have a lot of questions & roster issues that could keep the team mired in mediocrity for a few years, I think that would also be considered a failure. However, if we can make the playoffs with a young & growing team somewhat on the rise, I think that would be considered a successful retool for Dubas.

This timeline could work if you add add 4+5 years to each line item. I'm all about wishful thinking though, and hope you're right, there's just zero reason to believe this is how it will go. Maybe less than zero?

Yeah, that's not what I'm necessarily expecting, but that's the type of turn-around time I'm hoping for in a best-case scenario. While that take is obviously on the optimistic side, I don't think there is a less than 0 chance for it.

I think it is more feasible than it taking 12-15 years to make the playoffs again, as you state. If we're not back in the playoff picture in the next 3-5 years, Dubas and the transition from the Sid/Geno era will have been a complete failure.

[dark_forces]

That's where we will have to agree to disagree. Dubas didn't trade for Karlsson, resign Jarry, sign Graves and Accari for this team to miss the playoffs. All of those moves were win now moves and they have all proven to be poor decisions.

Because of those initial moves Dubas made there is a zero percent chance of us getting to the playoffs again in the Crosby era.

I'm not exactly sure what moves you would have wanted him to make though. Jarry - there really were no other options in free agency. Karlsson and Graves were comendable additions at the time. They backfired. Accari, eh, he is what he is.

As was stated the biggest problem at this time is purely lack of any talent in the pipeline. Constantly trading away 1st rounders for a run, and then not being able to draft quality players in later rounds is what the biggest issue is right now. Tampa was able to keep on motoring by letting UFA's walk and always having a younger player ready to step in. They've been doing that for more than a decade. They draft/develop very well. The Pens have been terrible drafters for ages. I would argue the strong commitment to "the core" is probably just as big an issue. But, I personally was on board with it. To be honest, I'm okay with a few crappy years in order to build back up. Ticket prices should come down some, or at least they will be running great promos to get people to the games! LOL

I disagree on the lack of talent in the pipeline. While they had no top end talent, they had plenty of 3rd/4th liners and some might have progressed to the 2nd. Not much D talent, I'll add that too.

I think the development and opportunities are more to blame than skill. When you have entire roster full of UFAs and make roster decisions based on waiver eligibility you aren't creating a competetive environment. No need to have signed the usual suspects when you can rotate waiver guys until one steps up (ERod, Jankowski, Nieto, Accari, etc). Every one of those spots could have been filled with 4-5 WBS guys who compete for 3-4 bottom six roles.

I didn't like the Karlsson trade when it happened and like it less now. Having two expensive no defense defensemen was a bad decision. Liked the Graves signing because that was an actual need. Jarry, like you said not many options.

The positive side of the Karlsson deal was jettisoning Petry, Granlund, and Rutta, who weren't wanted by the new regime. Plus, Karlsson, with money retained, should fetch a 2nd rounder and a prospect, or something like that. Also, we have no more legacy retention with Smith and Petry off the books at the end of the season.

[Daniel]

That's where we will have to agree to disagree. Dubas didn't trade for Karlsson, resign Jarry, sign Graves and Accari for this team to miss the playoffs. All of those moves were win now moves and they have all proven to be poor decisions.

Because of those initial moves Dubas made there is a zero percent chance of us getting to the playoffs again in the Crosby era.

I'm not exactly sure what moves you would have wanted him to make though. Jarry - there really were no other options in free agency. Karlsson and Graves were comendable additions at the time. They backfired. Accari, eh, he is what he is.

As was stated the biggest problem at this time is purely lack of any talent in the pipeline. Constantly trading away 1st rounders for a run, and then not being able to draft quality players in later rounds is what the biggest issue is right now. Tampa was able to keep on motoring by letting UFA's walk and always having a younger player ready to step in. They've been doing that for more than a decade. They draft/develop very well. The Pens have been terrible drafters for ages. I would argue the strong commitment to "the core" is probably just as big an issue. But, I personally was on board with it. To be honest, I'm okay with a few crappy years in order to build back up. Ticket prices should come down some, or at least they will be running great promos to get people to the games! LOL

I disagree on the lack of talent in the pipeline. While they had no top end talent, they had plenty of 3rd/4th liners and some might have progressed to the 2nd. Not much D talent, I'll add that too.

I think the development and opportunities are more to blame than skill. When you have entire roster full of UFAs and make roster decisions based on waiver eligibility you aren't creating a competetive environment. No need to have signed the usual suspects when you can rotate waiver guys until one steps up (ERod, Jankowski, Nieto, Accari, etc). Every one of those spots could have been filled with 4-5 WBS guys who compete for 3-4 bottom six roles.

I didn't like the Karlsson trade when it happened and like it less now. Having two expensive no defense defensemen was a bad decision. Liked the Graves signing because that was an actual need. Jarry, like you said not many options.

The positive side of the Karlsson deal was jettisoning Petry, Granlund, and Rutta, who weren't wanted by the new regime. Plus, Karlsson, with money retained, should fetch a 2nd rounder and a prospect, or something like that. Also, we have no more legacy retention with Smith and Petry off the books at the end of the season.

True, but wonder if we get a better return for trading each parts OR not even getting them to begin with, which wasn't KD's fault. Except Rutta, his contract wasn't too bad for what he brought. Dubas had to clean up a big mess and got rid of all 3 in one swoops.

[lemieuxReturns]

That's where we will have to agree to disagree. Dubas didn't trade for Karlsson, resign Jarry, sign Graves and Accari for this team to miss the playoffs. All of those moves were win now moves and they have all proven to be poor decisions.

Because of those initial moves Dubas made there is a zero percent chance of us getting to the playoffs again in the Crosby era.

I'm not exactly sure what moves you would have wanted him to make though. Jarry - there really were no other options in free agency. Karlsson and Graves were comendable additions at the time. They backfired. Accari, eh, he is what he is.

As was stated the biggest problem at this time is purely lack of any talent in the pipeline. Constantly trading away 1st rounders for a run, and then not being able to draft quality players in later rounds is what the biggest issue is right now. Tampa was able to keep on motoring by letting UFA's walk and always having a younger player ready to step in. They've been doing that for more than a decade. They draft/develop very well. The Pens have been terrible drafters for ages. I would argue the strong commitment to "the core" is probably just as big an issue. But, I personally was on board with it. To be honest, I'm okay with a few crappy years in order to build back up. Ticket prices should come down some, or at least they will be running great promos to get people to the games! LOL

I disagree on the lack of talent in the pipeline. While they had no top end talent, they had plenty of 3rd/4th liners and some might have progressed to the 2nd. Not much D talent, I'll add that too.

I think the development and opportunities are more to blame than skill. When you have entire roster full of UFAs and make roster decisions based on waiver eligibility you aren't creating a competetive environment. No need to have signed the usual suspects when you can rotate waiver guys until one steps up (ERod, Jankowski, Nieto, Accari, etc). Every one of those spots could have been filled with 4-5 WBS guys who compete for 3-4 bottom six roles.

I didn't like the Karlsson trade when it happened and like it less now. Having two expensive no defense defensemen was a bad decision. Liked the Graves signing because that was an actual need. Jarry, like you said not many options.

The positive side of the Karlsson deal was jettisoning Petry, Granlund, and Rutta, who weren't wanted by the new regime. Plus, Karlsson, with money retained, should fetch a 2nd rounder and a prospect, or something like that. Also, we have no more legacy retention with Smith and Petry off the books at the end of the season.

The same Granlund that got the Sharks a first a couple days ago?

-Not disagreeing with you, just pointing out the hilarity of the situation.

[Pitts]

That's where we will have to agree to disagree. Dubas didn't trade for Karlsson, resign Jarry, sign Graves and Accari for this team to miss the playoffs. All of those moves were win now moves and they have all proven to be poor decisions.

Because of those initial moves Dubas made there is a zero percent chance of us getting to the playoffs again in the Crosby era.

I'm not exactly sure what moves you would have wanted him to make though. Jarry - there really were no other options in free agency. Karlsson and Graves were comendable additions at the time. They backfired. Accari, eh, he is what he is.

As was stated the biggest problem at this time is purely lack of any talent in the pipeline. Constantly trading away 1st rounders for a run, and then not being able to draft quality players in later rounds is what the biggest issue is right now. Tampa was able to keep on motoring by letting UFA's walk and always having a younger player ready to step in. They've been doing that for more than a decade. They draft/develop very well. The Pens have been terrible drafters for ages. I would argue the strong commitment to "the core" is probably just as big an issue. But, I personally was on board with it. To be honest, I'm okay with a few crappy years in order to build back up. Ticket prices should come down some, or at least they will be running great promos to get people to the games! LOL

I disagree on the lack of talent in the pipeline. While they had no top end talent, they had plenty of 3rd/4th liners and some might have progressed to the 2nd. Not much D talent, I'll add that too.

I think the development and opportunities are more to blame than skill. When you have entire roster full of UFAs and make roster decisions based on waiver eligibility you aren't creating a competetive environment. No need to have signed the usual suspects when you can rotate waiver guys until one steps up (ERod, Jankowski, Nieto, Accari, etc). Every one of those spots could have been filled with 4-5 WBS guys who compete for 3-4 bottom six roles.

Spoiler:

I didn't like the Karlsson trade when it happened and like it less now. Having two expensive no defense defensemen was a bad decision. Liked the Graves signing because that was an actual need. Jarry, like you said not many options.

Sorry, I disagree again here. If these talented 3-4 liners that could move up to 2nd line were so good, where are they now? I've always been on the side that thinks fans way overvalue their own team's picks. I'm sorry, but bad drafting = bad players. You cannot blame development, or coach won't play them, every time. It's on the player. Those that are good, solid NHL players make teams. Period.

Where's Poulin? Where's Legare? Where's Puustinen? Where's Addison? Where's Hallander? Where's Sprong???? Pouliot? Morrow? Harrington?

The list goes on of players the Pen's drafted and multiple other teams have taken a chance on and they bomb.

2017 and 2018 drafts were a literal sh#t show. You have to go all the way back to 2012&13 to see half decent drafts from this team. And even then, they are average players (except Guentzel)

It's drafting. The Pens suck at it.

[Daniel]

That's where we will have to agree to disagree. Dubas didn't trade for Karlsson, resign Jarry, sign Graves and Accari for this team to miss the playoffs. All of those moves were win now moves and they have all proven to be poor decisions.

Because of those initial moves Dubas made there is a zero percent chance of us getting to the playoffs again in the Crosby era.

I'm not exactly sure what moves you would have wanted him to make though. Jarry - there really were no other options in free agency. Karlsson and Graves were comendable additions at the time. They backfired. Accari, eh, he is what he is.

As was stated the biggest problem at this time is purely lack of any talent in the pipeline. Constantly trading away 1st rounders for a run, and then not being able to draft quality players in later rounds is what the biggest issue is right now. Tampa was able to keep on motoring by letting UFA's walk and always having a younger player ready to step in. They've been doing that for more than a decade. They draft/develop very well. The Pens have been terrible drafters for ages. I would argue the strong commitment to "the core" is probably just as big an issue. But, I personally was on board with it. To be honest, I'm okay with a few crappy years in order to build back up. Ticket prices should come down some, or at least they will be running great promos to get people to the games! LOL

I disagree on the lack of talent in the pipeline. While they had no top end talent, they had plenty of 3rd/4th liners and some might have progressed to the 2nd. Not much D talent, I'll add that too.

I think the development and opportunities are more to blame than skill. When you have entire roster full of UFAs and make roster decisions based on waiver eligibility you aren't creating a competetive environment. No need to have signed the usual suspects when you can rotate waiver guys until one steps up (ERod, Jankowski, Nieto, Accari, etc). Every one of those spots could have been filled with 4-5 WBS guys who compete for 3-4 bottom six roles.

Spoiler:

I didn't like the Karlsson trade when it happened and like it less now. Having two expensive no defense defensemen was a bad decision. Liked the Graves signing because that was an actual need. Jarry, like you said not many options.

Sorry, I disagree again here. If these talented 3-4 liners that could move up to 2nd line were so good, where are they now? I've always been on the side that thinks fans way overvalue their own team's picks. I'm sorry, but bad drafting = bad players. You cannot blame development, or coach won't play them, every time. It's on the player. Those that are good, solid NHL players make teams. Period.

Where's Poulin? Where's Legare? Where's Puustinen? Where's Addison? Where's Hallander? Where's Sprong???? Pouliot? Morrow? Harrington?

The list goes on of players the Pen's drafted and multiple other teams have taken a chance on and they bomb.

2017 and 2018 drafts were a literal sh#t show. You have to go all the way back to 2012&13 to see half decent drafts from this team. And even then, they are average players (except Guentzel)

It's drafting. The Pens suck at it.

The Penguins hold onto player until they become of no value for another franchise. 22 years old with little to no NHL value is worthless to another team or at best will be a journeyman. The 2 common denominators with all these failed prospects is WBS and no roster competition. Do you honestly believe that professional scouts can't get 1 NHL player over a 10 year period? Just by accident one should have made it. How many roster spots were even available in training camp since about 2017? None.

Poulin had mental issues, so I think him and the team get a pass.
Nathan Legare is a perfect example of what I mean. Keep in WBS without giving him any chance to compete in training camp. Trade him at 22 then wonder what happen.
We've discussed Puustinen a lot over the years so not going to rehash how MS treated evening. Look at FLPensFan's post from just the other day.
Addison has just over 150 NHL games and is only 25, so I wouldn't say he's a bust. Not sure why he's not in the NHL this year, haven't paid much attention to him. He had 3 games of WBS experience and got traded before going to the NHL. Not sure if it's a skill issue or lack AHL time prior to the NHL.
Hallander decided to go to Europe because he knew he'd never get a true NHL chance.
Sprong was mishandled and an example of how badly the Penguins develop players. In spite of that, he has about 400 games played and had a couple of nice seasons in Seattle and Detroit. He's the poster child of not wasting an ELC contract only to sit in the press box.
Harrington got traded after 2 years of WBS.
Joe Morrow might be the only miss who should have done better than he did, though he got traded at 20 for Brenden Morrow.

I think no matter who the Penguins drafted in place of anyone on this list, I think all of them would have failed and most on the list would have been better off drafted by the other team. I'd agree with your premise if just by accident someone made it, but name the last time the team went into training camp with a less than full roster? I'm not saying they draft great, but the development is terrible. Someone mention the Pens could have gotten Pastrnak instead of Kapanen, but I think if the pics were reverse, we'd be saying the could have drafted Kapanen. I think the development is that bad.

We can't prove any of this and I know you disagree with this.

[100565]

Who would you have drafted in 2017 and 2018 with the Pens picks?

https://www.hockey-reference.com/draft/ ... entry.html

https://www.hockey-reference.com/draft/ ... entry.html

[FLPensFan]

That's where we will have to agree to disagree. Dubas didn't trade for Karlsson, resign Jarry, sign Graves and Accari for this team to miss the playoffs. All of those moves were win now moves and they have all proven to be poor decisions.

Because of those initial moves Dubas made there is a zero percent chance of us getting to the playoffs again in the Crosby era.

I'm not exactly sure what moves you would have wanted him to make though. Jarry - there really were no other options in free agency. Karlsson and Graves were comendable additions at the time. They backfired. Accari, eh, he is what he is.

As was stated the biggest problem at this time is purely lack of any talent in the pipeline. Constantly trading away 1st rounders for a run, and then not being able to draft quality players in later rounds is what the biggest issue is right now. Tampa was able to keep on motoring by letting UFA's walk and always having a younger player ready to step in. They've been doing that for more than a decade. They draft/develop very well. The Pens have been terrible drafters for ages. I would argue the strong commitment to "the core" is probably just as big an issue. But, I personally was on board with it. To be honest, I'm okay with a few crappy years in order to build back up. Ticket prices should come down some, or at least they will be running great promos to get people to the games! LOL

I disagree on the lack of talent in the pipeline. While they had no top end talent, they had plenty of 3rd/4th liners and some might have progressed to the 2nd. Not much D talent, I'll add that too.

I think the development and opportunities are more to blame than skill. When you have entire roster full of UFAs and make roster decisions based on waiver eligibility you aren't creating a competetive environment. No need to have signed the usual suspects when you can rotate waiver guys until one steps up (ERod, Jankowski, Nieto, Accari, etc). Every one of those spots could have been filled with 4-5 WBS guys who compete for 3-4 bottom six roles.

Spoiler:

I didn't like the Karlsson trade when it happened and like it less now. Having two expensive no defense defensemen was a bad decision. Liked the Graves signing because that was an actual need. Jarry, like you said not many options.

Sorry, I disagree again here. If these talented 3-4 liners that could move up to 2nd line were so good, where are they now? I've always been on the side that thinks fans way overvalue their own team's picks. I'm sorry, but bad drafting = bad players. You cannot blame development, or coach won't play them, every time. It's on the player. Those that are good, solid NHL players make teams. Period.

Where's Poulin? Where's Legare? Where's Puustinen? Where's Addison? Where's Hallander? Where's Sprong???? Pouliot? Morrow? Harrington?

The list goes on of players the Pen's drafted and multiple other teams have taken a chance on and they bomb.

2017 and 2018 drafts were a literal sh#t show. You have to go all the way back to 2012&13 to see half decent drafts from this team. And even then, they are average players (except Guentzel)

It's drafting. The Pens suck at it.

I think they have gotten better the last few years:
--Hextall drafted Broz, Belliveau, Tankov, Pickering, and Murashov
--Dubas drafted Yager, Pieniniemi, Ilyin, Brunicke, Howe, and Harding

I think that's a lot better than Rutherford had done over his tenure. Shero loaded up on d-men thinking they printed trading money. Rutherford was all over the place, and I never understood drafting guys that could barely skate (Poulin, Legare) when you had Sullivan as coach.

But overall, yes, I think fans over-estimate our draft picks. Some fans refuse to give up a guy like DOC (I know he was undrafted) for a consistent 20 goal scorer. But, on the flip side, it does seem as though the Penguins rarely give guys much of a chance. They play them in off-positions, don't often reward them when they play well for a streak but are quick with the leash when they make a mistake.

[Sams_Dog]

Who would you have drafted in 2017 and 2018 with the Pens picks?

https://www.hockey-reference.com/draft/ ... entry.html

https://www.hockey-reference.com/draft/ ... entry.html

I have to laugh at the Flyers picking Nolan Patrick at #2 and Colorado taking Cale Makar at #4.

[Daniel]

That's where we will have to agree to disagree. Dubas didn't trade for Karlsson, resign Jarry, sign Graves and Accari for this team to miss the playoffs. All of those moves were win now moves and they have all proven to be poor decisions.

Because of those initial moves Dubas made there is a zero percent chance of us getting to the playoffs again in the Crosby era.

I'm not exactly sure what moves you would have wanted him to make though. Jarry - there really were no other options in free agency. Karlsson and Graves were comendable additions at the time. They backfired. Accari, eh, he is what he is.

As was stated the biggest problem at this time is purely lack of any talent in the pipeline. Constantly trading away 1st rounders for a run, and then not being able to draft quality players in later rounds is what the biggest issue is right now. Tampa was able to keep on motoring by letting UFA's walk and always having a younger player ready to step in. They've been doing that for more than a decade. They draft/develop very well. The Pens have been terrible drafters for ages. I would argue the strong commitment to "the core" is probably just as big an issue. But, I personally was on board with it. To be honest, I'm okay with a few crappy years in order to build back up. Ticket prices should come down some, or at least they will be running great promos to get people to the games! LOL

I disagree on the lack of talent in the pipeline. While they had no top end talent, they had plenty of 3rd/4th liners and some might have progressed to the 2nd. Not much D talent, I'll add that too.

I think the development and opportunities are more to blame than skill. When you have entire roster full of UFAs and make roster decisions based on waiver eligibility you aren't creating a competetive environment. No need to have signed the usual suspects when you can rotate waiver guys until one steps up (ERod, Jankowski, Nieto, Accari, etc). Every one of those spots could have been filled with 4-5 WBS guys who compete for 3-4 bottom six roles.

Spoiler:

I didn't like the Karlsson trade when it happened and like it less now. Having two expensive no defense defensemen was a bad decision. Liked the Graves signing because that was an actual need. Jarry, like you said not many options.

Sorry, I disagree again here. If these talented 3-4 liners that could move up to 2nd line were so good, where are they now? I've always been on the side that thinks fans way overvalue their own team's picks. I'm sorry, but bad drafting = bad players. You cannot blame development, or coach won't play them, every time. It's on the player. Those that are good, solid NHL players make teams. Period.

Where's Poulin? Where's Legare? Where's Puustinen? Where's Addison? Where's Hallander? Where's Sprong???? Pouliot? Morrow? Harrington?

The list goes on of players the Pen's drafted and multiple other teams have taken a chance on and they bomb.

2017 and 2018 drafts were a literal sh#t show. You have to go all the way back to 2012&13 to see half decent drafts from this team. And even then, they are average players (except Guentzel)

It's drafting. The Pens suck at it.

I think they have gotten better the last few years:
--Hextall drafted Broz, Belliveau, Tankov, Pickering, and Murashov
--Dubas drafted Yager, Pieniniemi, Ilyin, Brunicke, Howe, and Harding

I think that's a lot better than Rutherford had done over his tenure. Shero loaded up on d-men thinking they printed trading money. Rutherford was all over the place, and I never understood drafting guys that could barely skate (Poulin, Legare) when you had Sullivan as coach.

But overall, yes, I think fans over-estimate our draft picks. Some fans refuse to give up a guy like DOC (I know he was undrafted) for a consistent 20 goal scorer. But, on the flip side, it does seem as though the Penguins rarely give guys much of a chance. They play them in off-positions, don't often reward them when they play well for a streak but are quick with the leash when they make a mistake.

To me that's the bottom line. Not saying they're great, or even above average at drafting, but what I'm saying is the draft doesn't matter because it has been devalued by UFA signings and no opportunities coming out of training camp. I'd say the draft is a C- but the development is an F and even that is generous. Players learn quickly that they're capped at the AHL level, or Europe. They learn the Penguins have a full roster of players going into training camp and if they make the team because of an injury they're one error away from obscurity. No competition for roster spots and you had 2 players who would rather not even stay with the organization than deal with the crap year in and year out. No reason that Hallander never got a chance with the Penguins. He did everything he needed to do at WBS and is about a .75 ppg player in Sweden.

I find it hard to believe that about 40 players over the course of almost 10 years weren't NHL caliber. Of course it's not the development or the coaching staff or the one common denominator, Mike Sullivan.

[FLPensFan]

Who would you have drafted in 2017 and 2018 with the Pens picks?

https://www.hockey-reference.com/draft/ ... entry.html

https://www.hockey-reference.com/draft/ ... entry.html

Granted, this is hindsight, so it is much easier to say now with advanced knowledge and status, but:
--2017
----2nd round pick was 51 overall, we took Zachary Lauzon. Maybe we should have looked to move up. Eetu Luostarinen, Mario Ferraro, and Dylan Samberg were all taken between pick 42-49.
----3rd round, we took Clayton Phillips with the last pick in the 3rd round. So anyone between Lauzon and Phillips could have been taken by us. Goalie UPL from Buffalo, Fabian Zetterlund, Morgan Geekie, Jonathan Kovacevic.
----We didn't have a 4th round pick, but OTT took Drake Batherson in the 4th round.

2017 draft wasn't the greatest, but the Penguins missed on EVERY PICK. They didn't get a single NHL game (even playing for another team) from a 2nd, 3rd, two 5ths, a 6th and a 7th. That's B.A.D. bad...

2018
----two 2nd rounders, 53 and 58th, became Addison and Hallander respectively.
----Jack McBain was taken with the 1st pick in the 3rd round. Phillip Kurashev late in the 4th round.
----Also had a 5th and 6th rounder, Justin Almeida and Liam Gorman
----Yegor Sharangovich was taken 12 picks after Almeida

The bigger issue is, the Penguins almost NEVER hit on any late round picks. As an example:
--in 2017, we had two 5th round picks....8 5th round picks in 2017 played at least 1 NHL game. 1 has played 210 games, another 190.
--in 2018, we had a 5th round pick......12 5th round picks in 2018 played at least 1 NHL game. Sharangovich has over 300 NHL games played.

It's not just that they miss on picks....they miss so badly beyond the "easy rounds" that they don't even hit on a guy who managed to make it to the NHL but flamed out after a handful of games.

2019, Valteri Puustinen, 7th round pick
2015, Dominic Simon, 5th round pick
2014, Sam Lafferty, 4th round pick
2014, Anthony Angello, 5th round pick
2011, Dominik Uher, 5th round pick
2011, Josh Archibald, 6th round pick
2011, Scott Wilson, 7th round pick
2010, Tom Kuhnhackl, 4th round pick
2010, Kenny Agostino, 5th round pick

As I go further back, it's easy to see that from 2014 and further back, the Penguins were at least hitting on 4th to 7th rounders every other year or so. Aside from Puustinen, it's been 10 years (Dom Simon) since anyone drafted beyond the 3rd round has played an NHL game. That's atrocious.

[Cow_Master66]

They are going to be worse next season, and the one after that, and the one after that, and the one after that.... This is the tradeoff for keeping the elders so that fans didn't have to get their feelings hurt by seeing former stars in different uniforms.

My mind has been in that space for a while now. Winning is cool, I prefer winning, losing sucks but hey, better drafting yeah? I don't believe in tanking though, ever. The players should play to win, every time. If management has made for a poor mix leading to a lot of losses, so be it. Ramming the iceberg on purpose with the Titanic is not my cup of tea.

We will be a bottom dweller for at least 3 seasons after this one I think. Draft well, draft early, draft often. Pick up reclamations and short deals and build.

You may be right about being a bottom dweller for another 3 seasons, but I don't think Dubas believes that. My guess is that he's hoping for a 2-year plan at this point. At least, that's what I'm still holding out hope for.

This season is obviously a lost cause.

25-26: My guess is that he'll try to infuse the youth into the regular lineups this season, with the hope that we'll improve on this current season. If Sully is gone, there is a chance we'll actually finish a little better. My guess is that we'll still be in the bottom half of the league either way. Better draft picks again.

26-27: I think we have the "potential" to be competitive this season. By that, I mean maybe making the playoffs. As bad as we were the past two seasons, we still flirted with playoffs. With the influx of youth, lots of cap space, a new coach, Sid eager for one last run, it might be possible. I think we'll be on the upswing again this season, but I'm not sure if it'll be enough to make the playoffs.

27-28: This is the season we should be back to making the playoffs. If we are not in the playoff picture at this point, I think Dubas has failed at what he set out to do. If we are in the playoffs but still have a lot of questions & roster issues that could keep the team mired in mediocrity for a few years, I think that would also be considered a failure. However, if we can make the playoffs with a young & growing team somewhat on the rise, I think that would be considered a successful retool for Dubas.

This timeline could work if you add add 4+5 years to each line item. I'm all about wishful thinking though, and hope you're right, there's just zero reason to believe this is how it will go. Maybe less than zero?

Yeah, that's not what I'm necessarily expecting, but that's the type of turn-around time I'm hoping for in a best-case scenario. While that take is obviously on the optimistic side, I don't think there is a less than 0 chance for it.

I think it is more feasible than it taking 12-15 years to make the playoffs again, as you state. If we're not back in the playoff picture in the next 3-5 years, Dubas and the transition from the Sid/Geno era will have been a complete failure.

I didn't say it would take 12-15 years to make the playoffs. Not sure anyone has said that ever.....Or maybe I did and was intoxicated?

Half the league makes the playoffs, so sure, 3-5 years is feasible to get in. My comments are usually around fielding a team that can compete for a Cup, which is easily > 5-6 years away. If they hold onto valuable assets, whether it's because they are looking to make "one last run" or appease the Captain, you can add another 3 years (8-9 years).

[EndO FanEra]

My mind has been in that space for a while now. Winning is cool, I prefer winning, losing sucks but hey, better drafting yeah? I don't believe in tanking though, ever. The players should play to win, every time. If management has made for a poor mix leading to a lot of losses, so be it. Ramming the iceberg on purpose with the Titanic is not my cup of tea.

We will be a bottom dweller for at least 3 seasons after this one I think. Draft well, draft early, draft often. Pick up reclamations and short deals and build.

You may be right about being a bottom dweller for another 3 seasons, but I don't think Dubas believes that. My guess is that he's hoping for a 2-year plan at this point. At least, that's what I'm still holding out hope for.

This season is obviously a lost cause.

25-26: My guess is that he'll try to infuse the youth into the regular lineups this season, with the hope that we'll improve on this current season. If Sully is gone, there is a chance we'll actually finish a little better. My guess is that we'll still be in the bottom half of the league either way. Better draft picks again.

26-27: I think we have the "potential" to be competitive this season. By that, I mean maybe making the playoffs. As bad as we were the past two seasons, we still flirted with playoffs. With the influx of youth, lots of cap space, a new coach, Sid eager for one last run, it might be possible. I think we'll be on the upswing again this season, but I'm not sure if it'll be enough to make the playoffs.

27-28: This is the season we should be back to making the playoffs. If we are not in the playoff picture at this point, I think Dubas has failed at what he set out to do. If we are in the playoffs but still have a lot of questions & roster issues that could keep the team mired in mediocrity for a few years, I think that would also be considered a failure. However, if we can make the playoffs with a young & growing team somewhat on the rise, I think that would be considered a successful retool for Dubas.

This timeline could work if you add add 4+5 years to each line item. I'm all about wishful thinking though, and hope you're right, there's just zero reason to believe this is how it will go. Maybe less than zero?

Yeah, that's not what I'm necessarily expecting, but that's the type of turn-around time I'm hoping for in a best-case scenario. While that take is obviously on the optimistic side, I don't think there is a less than 0 chance for it.

I think it is more feasible than it taking 12-15 years to make the playoffs again, as you state. If we're not back in the playoff picture in the next 3-5 years, Dubas and the transition from the Sid/Geno era will have been a complete failure.

I didn't say it would take 12-15 years to make the playoffs. Not sure anyone has said that ever.....Or maybe I did and was intoxicated?

Half the league makes the playoffs, so sure, 3-5 years is feasible to get in. My comments are usually around fielding a team that can compete for a Cup, which is easily > 5-6 years away. If they hold onto valuable assets, whether it's because they are looking to make "one last run" or appease the Captain, you can add another 3 years (8-9 years).

Gotcha. I read your first sentence ("if you add add 4+5 years to each line item") as needing to add 4-5 years to each season (line item) in order to accomplish the goal I laid out. So, 4+4+4 or 5+5+5 which would be the 12-15 years to reach the last goal of making the playoffs.

The above sounds a lot more reasonable to me. I was just referring to getting back into the playoffs, which I think is potentially possible in that 3rd year. Very well may end up taking longer. As for becoming a cup contender again, I'm not even going to guess. There are too many factors a play for that one.

Step 1 - Fire Sully (TBD)
Step 2 - cut dead weight & get younger with picks/prospects (in progress)
Step 3 - make playoffs regularly again (TBD)

[Pitts]

Who would you have drafted in 2017 and 2018 with the Pens picks?

https://www.hockey-reference.com/draft/ ... entry.html

https://www.hockey-reference.com/draft/ ... entry.html

Granted, this is hindsight, so it is much easier to say now with advanced knowledge and status, but:
--2017
----2nd round pick was 51 overall, we took Zachary Lauzon. Maybe we should have looked to move up. Eetu Luostarinen, Mario Ferraro, and Dylan Samberg were all taken between pick 42-49.
----3rd round, we took Clayton Phillips with the last pick in the 3rd round. So anyone between Lauzon and Phillips could have been taken by us. Goalie UPL from Buffalo, Fabian Zetterlund, Morgan Geekie, Jonathan Kovacevic.
----We didn't have a 4th round pick, but OTT took Drake Batherson in the 4th round.

2017 draft wasn't the greatest, but the Penguins missed on EVERY PICK. They didn't get a single NHL game (even playing for another team) from a 2nd, 3rd, two 5ths, a 6th and a 7th. That's B.A.D. bad...

2018
----two 2nd rounders, 53 and 58th, became Addison and Hallander respectively.
----Jack McBain was taken with the 1st pick in the 3rd round. Phillip Kurashev late in the 4th round.
----Also had a 5th and 6th rounder, Justin Almeida and Liam Gorman
----Yegor Sharangovich was taken 12 picks after Almeida

The bigger issue is, the Penguins almost NEVER hit on any late round picks. As an example:
--in 2017, we had two 5th round picks....8 5th round picks in 2017 played at least 1 NHL game. 1 has played 210 games, another 190.
--in 2018, we had a 5th round pick......12 5th round picks in 2018 played at least 1 NHL game. Sharangovich has over 300 NHL games played.

It's not just that they miss on picks....they miss so badly beyond the "easy rounds" that they don't even hit on a guy who managed to make it to the NHL but flamed out after a handful of games.

2019, Valteri Puustinen, 7th round pick
2015, Dominic Simon, 5th round pick
2014, Sam Lafferty, 4th round pick
2014, Anthony Angello, 5th round pick
2011, Dominik Uher, 5th round pick
2011, Josh Archibald, 6th round pick
2011, Scott Wilson, 7th round pick
2010, Tom Kuhnhackl, 4th round pick
2010, Kenny Agostino, 5th round pick

As I go further back, it's easy to see that from 2014 and further back, the Penguins were at least hitting on 4th to 7th rounders every other year or so. Aside from Puustinen, it's been 10 years (Dom Simon) since anyone drafted beyond the 3rd round has played an NHL game. That's atrocious.

Thanks! I started doing some research to answer that question when I saw your reply. Pretty much the same names I was going to pull out.

[Victor]

Who would you have drafted in 2017 and 2018 with the Pens picks?

https://www.hockey-reference.com/draft/ ... entry.html

https://www.hockey-reference.com/draft/ ... entry.html

Granted, this is hindsight, so it is much easier to say now with advanced knowledge and status, but:
--2017
----2nd round pick was 51 overall, we took Zachary Lauzon. Maybe we should have looked to move up. Eetu Luostarinen, Mario Ferraro, and Dylan Samberg were all taken between pick 42-49.
----3rd round, we took Clayton Phillips with the last pick in the 3rd round. So anyone between Lauzon and Phillips could have been taken by us. Goalie UPL from Buffalo, Fabian Zetterlund, Morgan Geekie, Jonathan Kovacevic.
----We didn't have a 4th round pick, but OTT took Drake Batherson in the 4th round.

2017 draft wasn't the greatest, but the Penguins missed on EVERY PICK. They didn't get a single NHL game (even playing for another team) from a 2nd, 3rd, two 5ths, a 6th and a 7th. That's B.A.D. bad...

2018
----two 2nd rounders, 53 and 58th, became Addison and Hallander respectively.
----Jack McBain was taken with the 1st pick in the 3rd round. Phillip Kurashev late in the 4th round.
----Also had a 5th and 6th rounder, Justin Almeida and Liam Gorman
----Yegor Sharangovich was taken 12 picks after Almeida

The bigger issue is, the Penguins almost NEVER hit on any late round picks. As an example:
--in 2017, we had two 5th round picks....8 5th round picks in 2017 played at least 1 NHL game. 1 has played 210 games, another 190.
--in 2018, we had a 5th round pick......12 5th round picks in 2018 played at least 1 NHL game. Sharangovich has over 300 NHL games played.

It's not just that they miss on picks....they miss so badly beyond the "easy rounds" that they don't even hit on a guy who managed to make it to the NHL but flamed out after a handful of games.

2019, Valteri Puustinen, 7th round pick
2015, Dominic Simon, 5th round pick
2014, Sam Lafferty, 4th round pick
2014, Anthony Angello, 5th round pick
2011, Dominik Uher, 5th round pick
2011, Josh Archibald, 6th round pick
2011, Scott Wilson, 7th round pick
2010, Tom Kuhnhackl, 4th round pick
2010, Kenny Agostino, 5th round pick

As I go further back, it's easy to see that from 2014 and further back, the Penguins were at least hitting on 4th to 7th rounders every other year or so. Aside from Puustinen, it's been 10 years (Dom Simon) since anyone drafted beyond the 3rd round has played an NHL game. That's atrocious.

That's a horrible track record that spans over multiple tenures of GMs, head coaches and probably scouting staff. I wonder how low this would rank league wide.

[FLPensFan]

One area where the Penguins have been pretty strong over the course of the cap era is drafting and developing goalies. I'm going to go back as far as the 2000 draft (where there was still 9 rounds until 2005) and look at all the goalies this team has drafted.

The misses
--2000, 3rd round Peter Hamerlik, 9th round Nick Boucher (never even heard of these 2)
--2001, 7th round Tomas Duba, 8th round Brandon Crawford-West (vaguely remember Crawford-West)
--2002, 6th Bobby Goepfert, 9th Dwight LaBrosse (I remember Goepfert)
--2004, 8th David Brown
--2008, 5th Alexander Pechursky, 6th Patrick Killeen (Pechursky played 1 NHL game solely due to injuries and his proximity to the team)
--2012, 4th Sean Maguire
---10 total misses

The hits
--2003, 1st Marc-Andre Fleury
--2006, 5th Chad Johnson (just under 200 NHL games, none for Pittsburgh)
--2012, 3rd Matt Murray
--2012, 2nd Tristan Jarry
--2016, 2nd Filip Gustavsson
---5 hits

The tweeners (handful of NHL games)
--2003, 7th Andy Chiodo (8 NHL games)
--2020, 2nd Joel Blomqvist (he can move up once he plays more)
---2 tweeners

The unknowns
--2020, 3rd Calle Clang (yet to play NHL game, although I believe he did suit up as a backup a few games)
--2022, 4th Sergei Murashov
---2 unknowns

They basically hit on 25% of their goalie selections in the past 25 years. That may seem low, but I'd consider any goalie taken above the 3rd round to be a complete gamble. The only real "bust" in that group is a 3rd rounder on Peter Hamerlik and looking up information on him, he went unsigned by the Penguins and actually got redrafted by Boston in 2002 as a 5th round pick. He played 43 games between AHL and ECHL (more ECHL), then went back to play in Czech and Slovakia leagues.

If you look at just guys taken in the 3rd round or better, they've hit on 5 of 6 and have another as a possibility (Clang). It's too bad that goalies have such poor trade value around the league, since that is the area the Penguins seem to be best in terms of pure drafting.

[Victor]

I remember Goepfert as well. He played in the 2003 WJC for USA already drafted by the Penguins and the semis was against Canada - and their star goaltender MAF.

[100565]

The issue with debating draft success is defining what a successful draft pick is. Playing 1 game in NHL?? Playing 100?? How about goalies?

Overall, in most years, mid second round picks and below have a very small probability of being a legit NHL player (defining as playing 4-6 years in the league). The Pens are certainly due for a hit but I don’t think their drafting is too much below what is expected league wide - given their draft positions and amount of picks.

[Pitts]

The issue with debating draft success is defining what a successful draft pick is. Playing 1 game in NHL?? Playing 100?? How about goalies?

Overall, in most years, mid second round picks and below have a very small probability of being a legit NHL player (defining as playing 4-6 years in the league). The Pens are certainly due for a hit but I don’t think their drafting is too much below what is expected league wide - given their draft positions and amount of picks.

IDK. I still think identifying talent has been an issue for this franchise. Other teams like Boston, Tampa, Colorado, Nashville, etc always seem to be able to backfill quickly with value-added players.

[Michael74]

Drafting and developing is paramount now. That said, any analysis as to how effective we are in that regard should be judged since Dubas took over. If picks were taken via a different regime it doesn't aptly reflect as to what current management does. We don't have any blue chippers with maybe the exception of Murashov in the system. Now, we do have some fairly nice pieces, but the core players moving forward will likely be taken early in the next few drafts. to help augment that maybe a key free agent or two. But we have got to hit on these early draft picks.

[FLPensFan]

The issue with debating draft success is defining what a successful draft pick is. Playing 1 game in NHL?? Playing 100?? How about goalies?

Overall, in most years, mid second round picks and below have a very small probability of being a legit NHL player (defining as playing 4-6 years in the league). The Pens are certainly due for a hit but I don’t think their drafting is too much below what is expected league wide - given their draft positions and amount of picks.

There are a lot of different variables that can go into defining successful draft picks. There are things you cannot control, such as strength of a particular draft year. In general, the first scale would revolve simply around the number of picks taken, the rounds those picks were taken, and did said pick reach the NHL. Then I would have a second scale that would look at production against where the pick was taken, and what the expectations were. Took a top 10 pick that was expected to be a first line guy that ended up as a low end 3rd liner, maybe that's a C-F type of rating. I know we didn't draft him, but Puljujarvi to date would likely be an F rating by simply being a top 5 pick who hasn't lived up to expectations. On the flip side, Jake Guentzel was a 3rd round pick who was seen as a good player, but I believe has far exceeded output expecations. He would definitely get an A rating.

If you good which NHL team is best at drafting, you'll get a few different articles back, several that were done last year. One by the Athletic ranked Pittsburgh at 15th, and over the time period they reviewed, Pittsburgh had the 2nd fewest picks (I believe Columbus had the fewest). Another article by Sportsnet last year ranked the Penguins as 5th best over the past 10 years. There are a few others out there.

This may actually be a project that I take on sometime between now and the NHL draft: How successful has each team been at drafting since the year 2000 or 2001 (which accounts for all teams except Vegas and Seattle). I found another article from about 5 years ago that assigned values to overall pick ranges (example, picks 1 through 5 may be an expected return(ER) of 1, picks 6-14 an ER of .75, etc, etc all the way to a range that covers up to round 7 (or 9 if going back to 2000)). If I do this the way I want to, then I could make it adjustable....look at only a certain round, only a certain year range, etc.

We shall see if I actually follow through.

[Victor]

The issue with debating draft success is defining what a successful draft pick is. Playing 1 game in NHL?? Playing 100?? How about goalies?

Overall, in most years, mid second round picks and below have a very small probability of being a legit NHL player (defining as playing 4-6 years in the league). The Pens are certainly due for a hit but I don’t think their drafting is too much below what is expected league wide - given their draft positions and amount of picks.

There are a lot of different variables that can go into defining successful draft picks. There are things you cannot control, such as strength of a particular draft year. In general, the first scale would revolve simply around the number of picks taken, the rounds those picks were taken, and did said pick reach the NHL. Then I would have a second scale that would look at production against where the pick was taken, and what the expectations were. Took a top 10 pick that was expected to be a first line guy that ended up as a low end 3rd liner, maybe that's a C-F type of rating. I know we didn't draft him, but Puljujarvi to date would likely be an F rating by simply being a top 5 pick who hasn't lived up to expectations. On the flip side, Jake Guentzel was a 3rd round pick who was seen as a good player, but I believe has far exceeded output expecations. He would definitely get an A rating.

If you good which NHL team is best at drafting, you'll get a few different articles back, several that were done last year. One by the Athletic ranked Pittsburgh at 15th, and over the time period they reviewed, Pittsburgh had the 2nd fewest picks (I believe Columbus had the fewest). Another article by Sportsnet last year ranked the Penguins as 5th best over the past 10 years. There are a few others out there.

This may actually be a project that I take on sometime between now and the NHL draft: How successful has each team been at drafting since the year 2000 or 2001 (which accounts for all teams except Vegas and Seattle). I found another article from about 5 years ago that assigned values to overall pick ranges (example, picks 1 through 5 may be an expected return(ER) of 1, picks 6-14 an ER of .75, etc, etc all the way to a range that covers up to round 7 (or 9 if going back to 2000)). If I do this the way I want to, then I could make it adjustable....look at only a certain round, only a certain year range, etc.

We shall see if I actually follow through.

There's this nice article about the model used by PuckPedia to valur draft picks: https://puckpedia.com/PerriPickValue

It was developed by the former Director of Analytics for the Arizona Coyotes. It also references an article by Eric Tulsky from 2013.

[FLPensFan]

The issue with debating draft success is defining what a successful draft pick is. Playing 1 game in NHL?? Playing 100?? How about goalies?

Overall, in most years, mid second round picks and below have a very small probability of being a legit NHL player (defining as playing 4-6 years in the league). The Pens are certainly due for a hit but I don’t think their drafting is too much below what is expected league wide - given their draft positions and amount of picks.

There are a lot of different variables that can go into defining successful draft picks. There are things you cannot control, such as strength of a particular draft year. In general, the first scale would revolve simply around the number of picks taken, the rounds those picks were taken, and did said pick reach the NHL. Then I would have a second scale that would look at production against where the pick was taken, and what the expectations were. Took a top 10 pick that was expected to be a first line guy that ended up as a low end 3rd liner, maybe that's a C-F type of rating. I know we didn't draft him, but Puljujarvi to date would likely be an F rating by simply being a top 5 pick who hasn't lived up to expectations. On the flip side, Jake Guentzel was a 3rd round pick who was seen as a good player, but I believe has far exceeded output expecations. He would definitely get an A rating.

If you good which NHL team is best at drafting, you'll get a few different articles back, several that were done last year. One by the Athletic ranked Pittsburgh at 15th, and over the time period they reviewed, Pittsburgh had the 2nd fewest picks (I believe Columbus had the fewest). Another article by Sportsnet last year ranked the Penguins as 5th best over the past 10 years. There are a few others out there.

This may actually be a project that I take on sometime between now and the NHL draft: How successful has each team been at drafting since the year 2000 or 2001 (which accounts for all teams except Vegas and Seattle). I found another article from about 5 years ago that assigned values to overall pick ranges (example, picks 1 through 5 may be an expected return(ER) of 1, picks 6-14 an ER of .75, etc, etc all the way to a range that covers up to round 7 (or 9 if going back to 2000)). If I do this the way I want to, then I could make it adjustable....look at only a certain round, only a certain year range, etc.

We shall see if I actually follow through.

There's this nice article about the model used by PuckPedia to valur draft picks: https://puckpedia.com/PerriPickValue

It was developed by the former Director of Analytics for the Arizona Coyotes. It also references an article by Eric Tulsky from 2013.

Thanks! The Perri Pick Value seems like a good measure of the value before the pick. The other model I saw, created by a current and former NHL scout, was based more on value after the pick was made (based on games played). Going to look at a few more things, but right now these two are leading models I plan to use on my draft analysis spreadsheet.

[Puck-Lurker]

The issue with debating draft success is defining what a successful draft pick is. Playing 1 game in NHL?? Playing 100?? How about goalies?

Overall, in most years, mid second round picks and below have a very small probability of being a legit NHL player (defining as playing 4-6 years in the league). The Pens are certainly due for a hit but I don’t think their drafting is too much below what is expected league wide - given their draft positions and amount of picks.

There are a lot of different variables that can go into defining successful draft picks. There are things you cannot control, such as strength of a particular draft year. In general, the first scale would revolve simply around the number of picks taken, the rounds those picks were taken, and did said pick reach the NHL. Then I would have a second scale that would look at production against where the pick was taken, and what the expectations were. Took a top 10 pick that was expected to be a first line guy that ended up as a low end 3rd liner, maybe that's a C-F type of rating. I know we didn't draft him, but Puljujarvi to date would likely be an F rating by simply being a top 5 pick who hasn't lived up to expectations. On the flip side, Jake Guentzel was a 3rd round pick who was seen as a good player, but I believe has far exceeded output expecations. He would definitely get an A rating.

If you good which NHL team is best at drafting, you'll get a few different articles back, several that were done last year. One by the Athletic ranked Pittsburgh at 15th, and over the time period they reviewed, Pittsburgh had the 2nd fewest picks (I believe Columbus had the fewest). Another article by Sportsnet last year ranked the Penguins as 5th best over the past 10 years. There are a few others out there.

This may actually be a project that I take on sometime between now and the NHL draft: How successful has each team been at drafting since the year 2000 or 2001 (which accounts for all teams except Vegas and Seattle). I found another article from about 5 years ago that assigned values to overall pick ranges (example, picks 1 through 5 may be an expected return(ER) of 1, picks 6-14 an ER of .75, etc, etc all the way to a range that covers up to round 7 (or 9 if going back to 2000)). If I do this the way I want to, then I could make it adjustable....look at only a certain round, only a certain year range, etc.

We shall see if I actually follow through.

There's this nice article about the model used by PuckPedia to valur draft picks: https://puckpedia.com/PerriPickValue

It was developed by the former Director of Analytics for the Arizona Coyotes. It also references an article by Eric Tulsky from 2013.

Thanks! The Perri Pick Value seems like a good measure of the value before the pick. The other model I saw, created by a current and former NHL scout, was based more on value after the pick was made (based on games played). Going to look at a few more things, but right now these two are leading models I plan to use on my draft analysis spreadsheet.

Legit looking forward to what you will cook up.


From what I understand of the Perri Pick model, is that it critically prioritizes draft order from a theoretical standpoint. Meaning that the best 32 players are the first 32 players drafted, kinda. But we know how often players will drop, despite having high value at the draft.

Lets say you trade a single 1st round pick (17-32 overall), for two 2nd rounders and two 3rd rounders (using the average pick each time). I think that would be calculated as being fairly even as a trade based on Perri Pick. I'd take the four picks and run, myself. A higher chance to hit on one, or a lower chance to hit on between one and four?

I'm not a gambler though

Also not a top 2-3 coach of anything