***Werewolf XV Game Thread***

[mac5155]

So the wolves are the ones that are around, at least the alpha. Will vote tomorrow

[MWB]

Kraftster and Troy are tops on my list. Although I'm a little concerned that NAN may have been taken out by the wolves to set up Kraftster for a quick vote today.

[redwill]

lynch slappybrown

It's the way to go, IMO.

My only question is: where the hell is Troy?

[redwill]

My only question is: where the hell is Troy?

OK, OK, I know: Schliemann located it on the coast of extreme western Turkey.

I meant the poster Troy Loney, duh.

[MWB]

Looking at the end of the last vote....

With 6 minutes before the deadline the vote was:
3 - Troy (mac5155, MWB, NAN)
1 - slappybrown (redwill)
1 - NAN (Kraftster)
1 - Kraftster (Zaro)

relantel comes on and votes for kraftster. Two minutes later, NAN switches from Troy to Kraftster to make the vote 3 for Kraftster and 2 for Troy. Kraftster comes on two minutes later to switch his vote from NAN to Troy to tie things up.

We know NAN was good and he had no bad intentions with his switch. Relantel may have just thrown his vote in there for the sake of voting. Or he may have thrown it in there knowing that Kraftster is bad and making himself look good by voting for someone who may show up bad later on. However, with NAN's late switch, Kraftster had to switch his vote to Troy to tie it up. The other possibility is that slappy is bad and watched this knowing that if he threw a late vote on someone it would look bad.

[MWB]

I think Kraftster is the way to go. If he's bad, then either relantel or slappy is bad.

[cup keeper]

Code: Select all

1- slappybrown- (redwill)

[mac5155]

in reality the game could end tonight if we lynch a good guy and the wolves kill one and the vig misses.. so we need to tread carefully here.

[mac5155]

so much for this being a quick game. sigh

[Kicksave]

they killed all the people who usually will lead a vote. everyone left is the "im going to wait to see what the other person does" sort of voter. well, no you have everyone waiting to see what the other person is going to do.

[Troy Loney]

ok...i just got back into pittsburgh...i missed a lot yesterday, not going to be around a ton today.

there was something odd about that npv vote which i explained in my post before i went out of town....but nan turned out to be good.

is beerman still playing?

[mac5155]

lynch beerman

gotta get him talking.

[Troy Loney]

lynch beerman

gotta get him talking.

him and mwb were the two people that were my fall back targets after my nan theory....i still think the npv vote could be the bad guys, but it's also still very possible that the quieter players were just not involved in the vote, and now here we are all pointing the fingers at the people who actually did vote off the wolf.

[newarenanow]

Good luck village.

[Kraftster]

Reading back through everything I am pretty suspicious of slappy and relantel. If you buy that those two are suspicious then it points the finger at Troy as the other remaining red. Given the way yesterday unfolded:

Troy was very close to being an easy bandwagon kill. Slappy was on a lot yesterday leading up to the last minute voting drama. Rel was around a good bit. I was around with plenty of time too. I personally was not suspicious of Troy because of his second vote for npv and because of some of his observations. I voted for NAN because I was more suspicious.

These other guys were around all day not voting at all and not offering reasons for not voting Troy. Rel, I think generally said "don't think Troy is red" but that's it. I think they were waiting to see if Troy would get that crucial fourth vote then they could jump on the train that wasn't going to stop.

So Zaro pops on very quickly and just fires out my name as a vote. Rel has been watching NAN point the finger at me and he sees an opportunity to save Troy by voting for me and hoping NAN jumps on board. That's exactly what happened. So with the numbers as they were, I don't want the village to waste a kill so I vote for Troy to force a draw.

This is where it gets interesting from slappy. He, after being on all day, gets called away. Lets even assume that happened, it doesn't explain his non-vote for the prior few hours. Again, waiting to see if votes would pile on Troy so he could cast a vote that way late to throw things off. So whether we believe he was gone or not (I kind of do because I think he would have taken me out if he was around), his non-vote all day says something. Then, 95% sure that his vote isn't going to count after the deadline (why would it ever?!), he votes for Troy. He could have voted for Troy all day long! This was definitely done to deflect from him and Troy both.

Then, after the write up last night he points the finger my way immediately. Why not vote for me yesterday after he came on after the deadline? What changed to make him suspicious of me now since Troy is still there and that was his vote last time?? The kill of NAN? A perfect frame for getting me lynched this time. I'm confident
lynch slappybrown

[Kraftster]

But I think I've seen more suspicion from others towards rel. I would vote that way too. Or Troy really. Any of the reds, in other words.

[MWB]

lynch krafster

I'm going to be gone most of the morning. I think this is the best way to go still.

[Kraftster]

[Kraftster]

I forgot to bring this up. The npv vote was the bad guys -- Troy #2, Slappy #3. Relantel posts the same time as slappy trying to suggest other names. So he didn't realize that the baddies were trying to use npv to ride all the way home. He can't change his vote right away. Two more npvs come in and rel casts his lynch vote for his fellow wolf.

[Troy Loney]

ok i looked through the thread and i have some observations.

slappy has placed votes on a lot of the remaining players and been involved with a lot of things....he seems like he's scrambling, i'm going to look again at where i almost died to see if votes on me might have been to distract.

redwill and krafster both gave positive responses to my observation about the npv vote...they were both on the vote too with me. i think the point of that vote for me was that i was afraid we'd clear people who started the vote as good....and i think if we incorrectly clear someone for lynching npv we could be screwed.....i just wanted to make sure we didnt just automatically trust nan for throwing out the name npv....especially considering NOONE even threw out another name on that vote.

i've been trying to look at what we've all done to sort of list possible three man baddie combinations...that worked for me in the game where we got mwb and malks on the last vote...mikenike and i were able to be absolutely convinced that someone was bad when there were a group of them left.

i still trust relantel as a green....i trust redwill a good bit because he's on the npv vote and agreed with my observation even thought that would implicate him....mwb and slappy, while i'm not sure they'd both be bad both stick out the same way with me this game...kind of aggresive and vocal with votes.

sorry for the bit of ramble...i'm just trying to put as much of my out there right now cause i think this vote could turn back to me and i dont have any real defense for myself, and the only real theory i had on someone turned out false.

[Troy Loney]

I forgot to bring this up. The npv vote was the bad guys -- Troy #2, Slappy #3. Relantel posts the same time as slappy trying to suggest other names. So he didn't realize that the baddies were trying to use npv to ride all the way home. He can't change his vote right away. Two more npvs come in and rel casts his lynch vote for his fellow wolf.

i doubt that...if the baddies we're going to jump in and lynch one of their own they'd all probably be on the same page....they can pm and plan everything you know?

[MWB]

mwb and slappy, while i'm not sure they'd both be bad both stick out the same way with me this game...kind of aggresive and vocal with votes.

You've now labeled me as very quiet, aggressive, and vocal in this game...

Gotta go now, but I'm confident with my kraft vote.

[Kraftster]

I forgot to bring this up. The npv vote was the bad guys -- Troy #2, Slappy #3. Relantel posts the same time as slappy trying to suggest other names. So he didn't realize that the baddies were trying to use npv to ride all the way home. He can't change his vote right away. Two more npvs come in and rel casts his lynch vote for his fellow wolf.

i doubt that...if the baddies we're going to jump in and lynch one of their own they'd all probably be on the same page....they can pm and plan everything you know?

Right, but, you guys have been sloppy since then, so, I'm just assuming you were sloppy back then. Zing.

[Troy Loney]

I forgot to bring this up. The npv vote was the bad guys -- Troy #2, Slappy #3. Relantel posts the same time as slappy trying to suggest other names. So he didn't realize that the baddies were trying to use npv to ride all the way home. He can't change his vote right away. Two more npvs come in and rel casts his lynch vote for his fellow wolf.

i doubt that...if the baddies we're going to jump in and lynch one of their own they'd all probably be on the same page....they can pm and plan everything you know?

i have no doubt that 1,2 or 3 baddies could be on the npv vote...but your list is wrong cause i'm thinking relantel is green and i'm blue..but slappy could be bad, he's playing the same way though, i can't read him.

[slappybrown]

So the npv vote is all bad guys. Like NAN, right? He was bad for starting the vote on a wolf. Seriously, what are we doing?

Like I said, I got pulled away on a call. There is nothing I can do about it. If you want to lynch me becase of that, despite my voting record, its just a poor play. Second, since you havent played as much as the rest of us noob, the mods can do whatever they want in the scenario where its tied. They can call it a tie, they can count late votes, or they can count late votes while extending the deadline. So this whole "95%" sure it wont count is pure fantasy on your part.

The "non-vote" for the time leading up is because I was genuinely unsure of who to vote on. You can read the thread and see thats the case. The reason I was waiting was PRECISELY because of what happened, where people try to force ties or otherwise swing votes at the last minute -- you know, like you did. I just got pulled away at the wrong moment (check my post history if you dont believe me).

The best guide in these games is who people vote for. Not speculation and made up percentages. Let alone when you factor in how the vote went down with a tie at the very end.

lynch kraftster