Stock Market

[ExPatriatePen]

Don't think there's any real substance to the school of thought that the current "European Crisis" is significant?

Consider that the German economy is the center piece of Euro economic stability. The German DAX is down 21% this month alone! (worst performance in over nine years)

Finland also announced today that they want collateral for any aid given to Greece and the like.

In the US the VIX is up 16% and the market is off over 400 points at the open.

Oh yeah, this is serious.

Having said that, if you know where to look, the best opportunity for investors since 2008 is taking shape.

Careful though, it's still to early to rush in.

[JeffDFD]

Great debate on CNBC right now between SImon and Cramer on Melissa Lees show about how bad this current round of fear is.

Very entertaining and informative even if you don't like the participants.

Cliff notes?

Is anyone saying stocks are going to head a lot farther down (to 2008 crash levels???) before they turn around again (aka another recession)?

The summer usually sucks as stocks lose steam, but this is all just unsettling...even for long term investors - to see the market act like this

[ExPatriatePen]

Great debate on CNBC right now between SImon and Cramer on Melissa Lees show about how bad this current round of fear is.

Very entertaining and informative even if you don't like the participants.

Cliff notes?

Is anyone saying stocks are going to head a lot farther down (to 2008 crash levels???) before they turn around again (aka another recession)?

The summer usually sucks as stocks lose steam, but this is all just unsettling...even for long term investors - to see the market act like this

None of these "talking heads" is dumb enough to call a bottom. But they're ALL saying to stay away from financials and techs. Most of these guys are saying that Corporate America as a whole (excluding the aforementioned sectors) has strong balance sheets and is in a much better position than they were in 2008.

In fact, the most oft repeated thing I'm hearing is that this *isn't* 2008 on any way, shape, or form.

I'm personally going to let the dust settle here a bit. Then I'm going to look at a horribly oversold tech market that's also going through a seasonal through.

Some of the companies with the largest cash positions on their balance sheets are tech companies like IBM, Cisco, MSFT, and AAPL.

I really think they look for acquisitions starting here in the next few months.

If the administration doesn't get serious about giving US companies a way to repatriate foreign profits, then some of those acquisitions will be overseas. Companies like NXPI at $16.80 or slightly 8x trailing earnings is looking better and better.

[ExPatriatePen]

If you're day trading here, HP looks like a great short here at $32 going into the close.

[ExPatriatePen]

If you're day trading here, HP looks like a great short here at $32 going into the close.

HP closes at $29.48.

Nice little profit on that short trade. Even still I've got a net loss overall on the day.

Tomorrow may not give us much relief. Fridays aren't good here since most major bad news is released over the weekend and folks use Fridays to sell to reduce their exposure to that phenomena.

[Ron`]

Fear can overcome any logic. Odds should define logic.

Odds are based on technological advantages, resources or numerical strength. That said, you should fear odds as they approach. Unless technological advantages, resources or numerical strength exist that override the odds.

[Bowser]

The EURO failed before it even started and combine that with the American Occupation Generation (Bush/Obama) of spending billions/trillions on bad deals (Iraq/bank bailouts), the economic recovery will take some guts by the US government, US companies, and US citizens.

I'll have more on this later, gotta run to Parent-Teacher conference for Perry, he's heading to Kindergarten on Monday.... yikes!

[Ron`]

The EURO failed before it even started and combine that with the American Occupation Generation (Bush/Obama) of spending billions/trillions on bad deals (Iraq/bank bailouts), the economic recovery will take some guts by the US government, US companies, and US citizens.

I'll have more on this later, gotta run to Parent-Teacher conference for Perry, he's heading to Kindergarten on Monday.... yikes!

The Euro is rapidly headed to a bad vegas road trip decision. This country needs to reflect on the individual policies enacted before they even considered that. Debt spending beyond GDP kills...

[mac5155]

dang. we took a $5 loss per share today. almost 9%.

[Troy Loney]

So when should I move my 401k out of bonds and back into stocks?

[JeffDFD]

So when should I move my 401k out of bonds and back into stocks?

Not this second...market is going to take another dump on itself today.

[Troy Loney]

So when should I move my 401k out of bonds and back into stocks?

Not this second...market is going to take another dump on itself today.

well...mine takes a day to process, so if i moved out of my fixed income bonds i could buy into stock portfolios really low right?

[ExPatriatePen]

So when should I move my 401k out of bonds and back into stocks?

Not this second...market is going to take another dump on itself today.

well...mine takes a day to process, so if i moved out of my fixed income bonds i could buy into stock portfolios really low right?

Troy, worst thing you can do is try and catch the absolute bottom.

"Don't fight the tape".

Right now, the Trend is NOT your friend.

[columbia]

So when should I move my 401k out of bonds and back into stocks?

Not this second...market is going to take another dump on itself today.

well...mine takes a day to process, so if i moved out of my fixed income bonds i could buy into stock portfolios really low right?

Troy, worst thing you can do is try and catch the absolute bottom.

"Don't fight the tape".

Right now, the Trend is NOT your friend.

I'd have to agree with EPP....You'd better be really lucky, if you are trying to predict the bottom.

[JeffDFD]

you can never time the market...people who try usually fail. After the market went down for 8 straight days...I bought some stuff because it was cheap...after going up for 1 day, thats when we had a few days of the big drops and then big rebounds - and now we are back to huge drops.

The market is definitely getting cheap right now for those long term investors so if you did invest at today's closing prices you will be fine in the long run, but I cannot tell you when this craziness is going to stop. Things do not look good right now in the near term.

[Troy Loney]

your probably right. I think i'll actually wait for the next day the market makes a ridiculous jump then move most of the equities into low risk bonds and get out of this mess.

There are too many people with too much money right now...the market is being manipulated imo.

[ExPatriatePen]

If you're day trading here, HP looks like a great short here at $32 going into the close.

HP closes at $29.48.

Nice little profit on that short trade. Even still I've got a net loss overall on the day.

Tomorrow may not give us much relief. Fridays aren't good here since most major bad news is released over the weekend and folks use Fridays to sell to reduce their exposure to that phenomena.

Should have had the nerve to hold on to that HP short position overnight.

HP now at $22.90

That would have been a 33% return in ONE day.

[JeffDFD]

Market showing some life...fought back from its crappy open! Looks like we won't lose 400-500 two days in a row (so far)

[KennyTheKangaroo]

XLF, the Spider bank ETF, closed at 12.42. It hasnt traded at that level since March of 2009, when the bank stocks were rising from purgatory. call kenny the kangaroo crazy, but that seems pretty cheap. the wall street journal reported last week that the 6 largest banks in the US were all trading for less than book value. kenny the kangaroo isnt saying that all 6 are great buys, but the market seems to be punishing banks a little bit too much.

[ExPatriatePen]

XLF, the Spider bank ETF, closed at 12.42. It hasnt traded at that level since March of 2009, when the bank stocks were rising from purgatory. call kenny the kangaroo crazy, but that seems pretty cheap. the wall street journal reported last week that the 6 largest banks in the US were all trading for less than book value. kenny the kangaroo isnt saying that all 6 are great buys, but the market seems to be punishing banks a little bit too much.

Not a buyer here. There's no catalyst to move this sector any higher.

Financials will eventually come back, but historically it takes years and years after a financial crisis for bank stocks to recover. There are too many better opportunities available where I won't have to wait three to five years for a return.

Financials = "Value Trap"

I'll pass.

[Firebird]

Was thinking of making a new thread with a poll, but I'll start here first.

What online trading website do you all use?

[Ossa]

Was thinking of making a new thread with a poll, but I'll start here first.

What online trading website do you all use?

Check page 7 of this thread. There are a few responses to this question.

[Firebird]

Was thinking of making a new thread with a poll, but I'll start here first.

What online trading website do you all use?

Check page 7 of this thread. There are a few responses to this question.

So, what would be the advantage of Scotttrade over OptionsHouse?

How would level II quotes help me?

[KennyTheKangaroo]

Are they referring to level II quotes in relation to fair value for GAAP?

[KennyTheKangaroo]

Not a buyer here. There's no catalyst to move this sector any higher.

Financials will eventually come back, but historically it takes years and years after a financial crisis for bank stocks to recover. There are too many better opportunities available where I won't have to wait three to five years for a return.

Financials = "Value Trap"

I'll pass.

Good points all. Still, as a value investor, kenny the kangaroo likes things that are trading less than book value. One of those 6 banks that are trading for less than book value is going to make all of us look like idiots for not investing in it. Of course, kenny th ekangaroo is not willing to go through the effort to figure out which one that is. A few more points against buying banks:


A.) We all now know for sure that interest rates arent going up till 2013 or whenever

B.) Few people want loans for houses

C.) Banks dont want to loan $$$ for houses

D.) Dodd-Frank blows