Yes! In complete agreement.BigMcK wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 2:45 pmIn the end, Jake is another casualty of Sullivan's tenure. What could have been a few more quality (legit) chances for The Cup (and Core) were squandered by Ownership not having any cajones to sheet can Sullivan years ago.
I say trade him at the deadline for the best return, fire Sullivan and his entourage, and start the rebuild. Sid is eventually not going to be on the roster and the Franchise needs to start planning accordingly.
What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
I asked Dejan today about the possibility of trading Guentzel. All he said is, the information he has is that the Penguins would prefer to keep him. That's their intent, but does that intent change if they are nowhere close to a contract a few days from the deadline, we don't know.
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
Guentzel Situation Part 1: The Potential Outcomes.
Here are the 7 main outcomes I see with the Guentzel situation
1) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, and re-sign him before the summer.
2) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, and lose him this summer for nothing.
3) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, add a mid-round pick for his rights this summer.
4) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, an A-level prospect, and middle 6 type player aged 23-26.
5) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. A bidding war ensues and they get more than a 1st, top prospect, and roster player.
6) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. The Penguins receive less than expected haul of a 1st, top prospect, and roster player.
7) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, top prospect, and a roster player. Guentzel re-signs with the team over the summer.
There are a lot of other combinations I could add to go on endlessly, but those are the 6 main outcomes as I see them. IMO, outcomes 1, 4, 5, and 7 are the best outcomes, while outcomes 2, 3, and 6 are the worst potential outcomes.
The rabbit hole I started to go down before backing off was, what if they keep him, they miss the playoffs and he walks. Or keep him and he gets injured before the playoffs...and walks. Or they win the Cup...and he walks.
Maybe its just my pessimism towards this team right now, but I just see way more potential negative outcomes from keeping Jake than I do from trading him. The team wants to keep him, and I can understand that from a production point of view. He's been really, really good, and in the playoffs, he's been really, really gooder. But, the realistic view is I don't see another roster overhaul or available changes that suddenly puts this team back in the strong playoff contender before the end of the core. They needed younger, skilled legs around them, and we just don't have it.
And, I still say that a smart Guentzel and his agent, for as much as he loves playing in Pittsburgh, don't have the same blinders on as management. I think they can easily see that this Penguins team is not the best place to spend the next 7-8 years if your goal as a player is to make the playoffs and win a Stanley Cup. I don't think he necessarily wants to break the bank even if means playing in SJ or another bad team, but, if the Penguins offer you 8 years and 10M....or Colorado, New Jersey, Rangers, Dallas, etc all offer you 7 years and 10M...which option seems like the better one for your career as a player?
Their best option really is to trade Guentzel at the deadline, hope they can pickup a Zegras or Hoglander/Podkolzin type AND THEN re-sign Jake this summer. That is a definite possibility. You trade Jake away for this year, when you aren't obvious contenders, add some skilled youth, but still bring Jake back in the summer. You then add into that trading him again 2-3 years down the road, and that is the ultimate best case scenario.
I just don't see any scenario where they keep Jake and he walks for nothing as benefitting this team at all. Teams let players walk all the time, but in this case, he's the biggest asset we have outside the core, and where this team is right now, letting him go for nothing is beyond stupid. Re-signing him to an 8 year deal with trade protection....great, he stays here. But whether he stays or goes, the core, the current team plus Jake doesn't seem to be enough to stay strong playoff contenders. A few young pieces added in might make that difference, and if it doesn't...well, you've added young pieces and a high pick. You can flip those young pieces for more high picks in a year or two if you want to further stockpile picks for a rebuild.
Here are the 7 main outcomes I see with the Guentzel situation
1) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, and re-sign him before the summer.
2) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, and lose him this summer for nothing.
3) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, add a mid-round pick for his rights this summer.
4) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, an A-level prospect, and middle 6 type player aged 23-26.
5) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. A bidding war ensues and they get more than a 1st, top prospect, and roster player.
6) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. The Penguins receive less than expected haul of a 1st, top prospect, and roster player.
7) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, top prospect, and a roster player. Guentzel re-signs with the team over the summer.
There are a lot of other combinations I could add to go on endlessly, but those are the 6 main outcomes as I see them. IMO, outcomes 1, 4, 5, and 7 are the best outcomes, while outcomes 2, 3, and 6 are the worst potential outcomes.
The rabbit hole I started to go down before backing off was, what if they keep him, they miss the playoffs and he walks. Or keep him and he gets injured before the playoffs...and walks. Or they win the Cup...and he walks.
Maybe its just my pessimism towards this team right now, but I just see way more potential negative outcomes from keeping Jake than I do from trading him. The team wants to keep him, and I can understand that from a production point of view. He's been really, really good, and in the playoffs, he's been really, really gooder. But, the realistic view is I don't see another roster overhaul or available changes that suddenly puts this team back in the strong playoff contender before the end of the core. They needed younger, skilled legs around them, and we just don't have it.
And, I still say that a smart Guentzel and his agent, for as much as he loves playing in Pittsburgh, don't have the same blinders on as management. I think they can easily see that this Penguins team is not the best place to spend the next 7-8 years if your goal as a player is to make the playoffs and win a Stanley Cup. I don't think he necessarily wants to break the bank even if means playing in SJ or another bad team, but, if the Penguins offer you 8 years and 10M....or Colorado, New Jersey, Rangers, Dallas, etc all offer you 7 years and 10M...which option seems like the better one for your career as a player?
Their best option really is to trade Guentzel at the deadline, hope they can pickup a Zegras or Hoglander/Podkolzin type AND THEN re-sign Jake this summer. That is a definite possibility. You trade Jake away for this year, when you aren't obvious contenders, add some skilled youth, but still bring Jake back in the summer. You then add into that trading him again 2-3 years down the road, and that is the ultimate best case scenario.
I just don't see any scenario where they keep Jake and he walks for nothing as benefitting this team at all. Teams let players walk all the time, but in this case, he's the biggest asset we have outside the core, and where this team is right now, letting him go for nothing is beyond stupid. Re-signing him to an 8 year deal with trade protection....great, he stays here. But whether he stays or goes, the core, the current team plus Jake doesn't seem to be enough to stay strong playoff contenders. A few young pieces added in might make that difference, and if it doesn't...well, you've added young pieces and a high pick. You can flip those young pieces for more high picks in a year or two if you want to further stockpile picks for a rebuild.
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
FLPensFan wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:42 pmGuentzel Situation Part 1: The Potential Outcomes.
Here are the 7 main outcomes I see with the Guentzel situation
1) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, and re-sign him before the summer.
2) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, and lose him this summer for nothing.
3) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, add a mid-round pick for his rights this summer.
4) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, an A-level prospect, and middle 6 type player aged 23-26.
5) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. A bidding war ensues and they get more than a 1st, top prospect, and roster player.
6) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. The Penguins receive less than expected haul of a 1st, top prospect, and roster player.
7) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, top prospect, and a roster player. Guentzel re-signs with the team over the summer.
There are a lot of other combinations I could add to go on endlessly, but those are the 6 main outcomes as I see them. IMO, outcomes 1, 4, 5, and 7 are the best outcomes, while outcomes 2, 3, and 6 are the worst potential outcomes.
The rabbit hole I started to go down before backing off was, what if they keep him, they miss the playoffs and he walks. Or keep him and he gets injured before the playoffs...and walks. Or they win the Cup...and he walks.
Maybe its just my pessimism towards this team right now, but I just see way more potential negative outcomes from keeping Jake than I do from trading him. The team wants to keep him, and I can understand that from a production point of view. He's been really, really good, and in the playoffs, he's been really, really gooder. But, the realistic view is I don't see another roster overhaul or available changes that suddenly puts this team back in the strong playoff contender before the end of the core. They needed younger, skilled legs around them, and we just don't have it.
And, I still say that a smart Guentzel and his agent, for as much as he loves playing in Pittsburgh, don't have the same blinders on as management. I think they can easily see that this Penguins team is not the best place to spend the next 7-8 years if your goal as a player is to make the playoffs and win a Stanley Cup. I don't think he necessarily wants to break the bank even if means playing in SJ or another bad team, but, if the Penguins offer you 8 years and 10M....or Colorado, New Jersey, Rangers, Dallas, etc all offer you 7 years and 10M...which option seems like the better one for your career as a player?
Their best option really is to trade Guentzel at the deadline, hope they can pickup a Zegras or Hoglander/Podkolzin type AND THEN re-sign Jake this summer. That is a definite possibility. You trade Jake away for this year, when you aren't obvious contenders, add some skilled youth, but still bring Jake back in the summer. You then add into that trading him again 2-3 years down the road, and that is the ultimate best case scenario.
I just don't see any scenario where they keep Jake and he walks for nothing as benefitting this team at all. Teams let players walk all the time, but in this case, he's the biggest asset we have outside the core, and where this team is right now, letting him go for nothing is beyond stupid. Re-signing him to an 8 year deal with trade protection....great, he stays here. But whether he stays or goes, the core, the current team plus Jake doesn't seem to be enough to stay strong playoff contenders. A few young pieces added in might make that difference, and if it doesn't...well, you've added young pieces and a high pick. You can flip those young pieces for more high picks in a year or two if you want to further stockpile picks for a rebuild.
I doubt they can pull off option 7. They would lose out if they're bidding against the rest of the league for him, unless he'd take a discount to play here. Everyone should be aware that a first round pick for Jake would be north of 20, and those guys are busts almost as much as they are likely to make it in the league.
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
Guentzel Situation Part 2: Jake and the cap
If the 2024-2025 salary cap goes up 3-4M (let's say 4M for this look) to 87.5M, with that increase and removing all current UFAs (Jake, Carter, Harkins, Zohorna, Ruhwedel, Shea, Nedeljkovic), the Penguins will have 15 players under contract and 18.045M in cap space.
Signing Jake to a 10M AAV deal instantly takes this team down to 8.045M, with the need to add a backup goalie, a 3rd pairing d-man, and 2 bottom 6 forwards just to make an 19 man roster. This also doesn't count Puustinen or POJ as RFAs needing to be re-signed.
Is it doable, sure. But does anyone see a scenario where we re-sign Jake and have enough room to add anything substantial to improve on what we have this year?
Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Smith-Malkin-Rakell
DOC-Poulin-Puustinen
Nieto-Eller-Acciari
MP-Letang
POJ-EK
Graves-Ludvig
Jarry
That's a 19 man roster, and I have 5.2M in cap space to add a backup goalie and 3 extras...with pretty much the well in WBS non-existent. A decent backup goalie is going to cost us 1.5-2M, leaving 3M for 3 extras, essentially 3 minimum salary players.
If the 2024-2025 salary cap goes up 3-4M (let's say 4M for this look) to 87.5M, with that increase and removing all current UFAs (Jake, Carter, Harkins, Zohorna, Ruhwedel, Shea, Nedeljkovic), the Penguins will have 15 players under contract and 18.045M in cap space.
Signing Jake to a 10M AAV deal instantly takes this team down to 8.045M, with the need to add a backup goalie, a 3rd pairing d-man, and 2 bottom 6 forwards just to make an 19 man roster. This also doesn't count Puustinen or POJ as RFAs needing to be re-signed.
Is it doable, sure. But does anyone see a scenario where we re-sign Jake and have enough room to add anything substantial to improve on what we have this year?
Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Smith-Malkin-Rakell
DOC-Poulin-Puustinen
Nieto-Eller-Acciari
MP-Letang
POJ-EK
Graves-Ludvig
Jarry
That's a 19 man roster, and I have 5.2M in cap space to add a backup goalie and 3 extras...with pretty much the well in WBS non-existent. A decent backup goalie is going to cost us 1.5-2M, leaving 3M for 3 extras, essentially 3 minimum salary players.
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
I definitely think #7 is a longshot, but it is an option. I'm not as enamored with a 1st rounder (although, we likely won't have one next year so getting one back would help, even if in the 20s). It's more the adding a Zegras, or trying to get someone like Lekkerimaki from Vancouver instead of Podkolzin.pens_CT wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:22 pmFLPensFan wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:42 pmGuentzel Situation Part 1: The Potential Outcomes.
Here are the 7 main outcomes I see with the Guentzel situation
1) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, and re-sign him before the summer.
2) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, and lose him this summer for nothing.
3) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, add a mid-round pick for his rights this summer.
4) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, an A-level prospect, and middle 6 type player aged 23-26.
5) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. A bidding war ensues and they get more than a 1st, top prospect, and roster player.
6) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. The Penguins receive less than expected haul of a 1st, top prospect, and roster player.
7) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, top prospect, and a roster player. Guentzel re-signs with the team over the summer.
There are a lot of other combinations I could add to go on endlessly, but those are the 6 main outcomes as I see them. IMO, outcomes 1, 4, 5, and 7 are the best outcomes, while outcomes 2, 3, and 6 are the worst potential outcomes.
The rabbit hole I started to go down before backing off was, what if they keep him, they miss the playoffs and he walks. Or keep him and he gets injured before the playoffs...and walks. Or they win the Cup...and he walks.
Maybe its just my pessimism towards this team right now, but I just see way more potential negative outcomes from keeping Jake than I do from trading him. The team wants to keep him, and I can understand that from a production point of view. He's been really, really good, and in the playoffs, he's been really, really gooder. But, the realistic view is I don't see another roster overhaul or available changes that suddenly puts this team back in the strong playoff contender before the end of the core. They needed younger, skilled legs around them, and we just don't have it.
And, I still say that a smart Guentzel and his agent, for as much as he loves playing in Pittsburgh, don't have the same blinders on as management. I think they can easily see that this Penguins team is not the best place to spend the next 7-8 years if your goal as a player is to make the playoffs and win a Stanley Cup. I don't think he necessarily wants to break the bank even if means playing in SJ or another bad team, but, if the Penguins offer you 8 years and 10M....or Colorado, New Jersey, Rangers, Dallas, etc all offer you 7 years and 10M...which option seems like the better one for your career as a player?
Their best option really is to trade Guentzel at the deadline, hope they can pickup a Zegras or Hoglander/Podkolzin type AND THEN re-sign Jake this summer. That is a definite possibility. You trade Jake away for this year, when you aren't obvious contenders, add some skilled youth, but still bring Jake back in the summer. You then add into that trading him again 2-3 years down the road, and that is the ultimate best case scenario.
I just don't see any scenario where they keep Jake and he walks for nothing as benefitting this team at all. Teams let players walk all the time, but in this case, he's the biggest asset we have outside the core, and where this team is right now, letting him go for nothing is beyond stupid. Re-signing him to an 8 year deal with trade protection....great, he stays here. But whether he stays or goes, the core, the current team plus Jake doesn't seem to be enough to stay strong playoff contenders. A few young pieces added in might make that difference, and if it doesn't...well, you've added young pieces and a high pick. You can flip those young pieces for more high picks in a year or two if you want to further stockpile picks for a rebuild.
I doubt they can pull off option 7. They would lose out if they're bidding against the rest of the league for him, unless he'd take a discount to play here. Everyone should be aware that a first round pick for Jake would be north of 20, and those guys are busts almost as much as they are likely to make it in the league.
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
Yeah, this!KBone wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 8:42 amYou think Jake is going to leave about $40 million on the table? I don't.Pens4Life wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 5:14 amI would rather trade Rakell or Smith before Jake.. just re-sign him for 5years, 8.5M and you can easily trade him down the road when rebuild time will come
He'll end up close to an $80 million dollar deal.
Heck, even if he doesn't quite hit 10 million per year, he's not taking only a 5 year deal. He'll get 8 from the Pens or 7 from someone else.
As much as I don't think it will happen, the right move is to trade him and cash in.

I don't see a way he takes $8.5M / year. No way, no how. Those are years and money he won't get back.
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
FLPensFan wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:47 pmI definitely think #7 is a longshot, but it is an option. I'm not as enamored with a 1st rounder (although, we likely won't have one next year so getting one back would help, even if in the 20s). It's more the adding a Zegras, or trying to get someone like Lekkerimaki from Vancouver instead of Podkolzin.pens_CT wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:22 pmFLPensFan wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:42 pmGuentzel Situation Part 1: The Potential Outcomes.
Here are the 7 main outcomes I see with the Guentzel situation
1) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, and re-sign him before the summer.
2) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, and lose him this summer for nothing.
3) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, add a mid-round pick for his rights this summer.
4) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, an A-level prospect, and middle 6 type player aged 23-26.
5) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. A bidding war ensues and they get more than a 1st, top prospect, and roster player.
6) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. The Penguins receive less than expected haul of a 1st, top prospect, and roster player.
7) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, top prospect, and a roster player. Guentzel re-signs with the team over the summer.
There are a lot of other combinations I could add to go on endlessly, but those are the 6 main outcomes as I see them. IMO, outcomes 1, 4, 5, and 7 are the best outcomes, while outcomes 2, 3, and 6 are the worst potential outcomes.
The rabbit hole I started to go down before backing off was, what if they keep him, they miss the playoffs and he walks. Or keep him and he gets injured before the playoffs...and walks. Or they win the Cup...and he walks.
Maybe its just my pessimism towards this team right now, but I just see way more potential negative outcomes from keeping Jake than I do from trading him. The team wants to keep him, and I can understand that from a production point of view. He's been really, really good, and in the playoffs, he's been really, really gooder. But, the realistic view is I don't see another roster overhaul or available changes that suddenly puts this team back in the strong playoff contender before the end of the core. They needed younger, skilled legs around them, and we just don't have it.
And, I still say that a smart Guentzel and his agent, for as much as he loves playing in Pittsburgh, don't have the same blinders on as management. I think they can easily see that this Penguins team is not the best place to spend the next 7-8 years if your goal as a player is to make the playoffs and win a Stanley Cup. I don't think he necessarily wants to break the bank even if means playing in SJ or another bad team, but, if the Penguins offer you 8 years and 10M....or Colorado, New Jersey, Rangers, Dallas, etc all offer you 7 years and 10M...which option seems like the better one for your career as a player?
Their best option really is to trade Guentzel at the deadline, hope they can pickup a Zegras or Hoglander/Podkolzin type AND THEN re-sign Jake this summer. That is a definite possibility. You trade Jake away for this year, when you aren't obvious contenders, add some skilled youth, but still bring Jake back in the summer. You then add into that trading him again 2-3 years down the road, and that is the ultimate best case scenario.
I just don't see any scenario where they keep Jake and he walks for nothing as benefitting this team at all. Teams let players walk all the time, but in this case, he's the biggest asset we have outside the core, and where this team is right now, letting him go for nothing is beyond stupid. Re-signing him to an 8 year deal with trade protection....great, he stays here. But whether he stays or goes, the core, the current team plus Jake doesn't seem to be enough to stay strong playoff contenders. A few young pieces added in might make that difference, and if it doesn't...well, you've added young pieces and a high pick. You can flip those young pieces for more high picks in a year or two if you want to further stockpile picks for a rebuild.
I doubt they can pull off option 7. They would lose out if they're bidding against the rest of the league for him, unless he'd take a discount to play here. Everyone should be aware that a first round pick for Jake would be north of 20, and those guys are busts almost as much as they are likely to make it in the league.
Do you think Vancouver would do Garland and Lekkerimakl for Guentzel? Maybe throw in another pick in 25 if Vancouver re-signs Guentzel. We all know if Jim wants someone he will do what it takes to acquire that player. Hopefully Dubas can use that to his advantage.
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
I think that's a realistic deal. Would think Vancouver would rather trade Kuzmenko, but I just don't see he and Sully meshing well.pens_CT wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 8:14 pmFLPensFan wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:47 pmI definitely think #7 is a longshot, but it is an option. I'm not as enamored with a 1st rounder (although, we likely won't have one next year so getting one back would help, even if in the 20s). It's more the adding a Zegras, or trying to get someone like Lekkerimaki from Vancouver instead of Podkolzin.pens_CT wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:22 pmFLPensFan wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:42 pmGuentzel Situation Part 1: The Potential Outcomes.
Here are the 7 main outcomes I see with the Guentzel situation
1) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, and re-sign him before the summer.
2) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, and lose him this summer for nothing.
3) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, add a mid-round pick for his rights this summer.
4) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, an A-level prospect, and middle 6 type player aged 23-26.
5) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. A bidding war ensues and they get more than a 1st, top prospect, and roster player.
6) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. The Penguins receive less than expected haul of a 1st, top prospect, and roster player.
7) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, top prospect, and a roster player. Guentzel re-signs with the team over the summer.
There are a lot of other combinations I could add to go on endlessly, but those are the 6 main outcomes as I see them. IMO, outcomes 1, 4, 5, and 7 are the best outcomes, while outcomes 2, 3, and 6 are the worst potential outcomes.
The rabbit hole I started to go down before backing off was, what if they keep him, they miss the playoffs and he walks. Or keep him and he gets injured before the playoffs...and walks. Or they win the Cup...and he walks.
Maybe its just my pessimism towards this team right now, but I just see way more potential negative outcomes from keeping Jake than I do from trading him. The team wants to keep him, and I can understand that from a production point of view. He's been really, really good, and in the playoffs, he's been really, really gooder. But, the realistic view is I don't see another roster overhaul or available changes that suddenly puts this team back in the strong playoff contender before the end of the core. They needed younger, skilled legs around them, and we just don't have it.
And, I still say that a smart Guentzel and his agent, for as much as he loves playing in Pittsburgh, don't have the same blinders on as management. I think they can easily see that this Penguins team is not the best place to spend the next 7-8 years if your goal as a player is to make the playoffs and win a Stanley Cup. I don't think he necessarily wants to break the bank even if means playing in SJ or another bad team, but, if the Penguins offer you 8 years and 10M....or Colorado, New Jersey, Rangers, Dallas, etc all offer you 7 years and 10M...which option seems like the better one for your career as a player?
Their best option really is to trade Guentzel at the deadline, hope they can pickup a Zegras or Hoglander/Podkolzin type AND THEN re-sign Jake this summer. That is a definite possibility. You trade Jake away for this year, when you aren't obvious contenders, add some skilled youth, but still bring Jake back in the summer. You then add into that trading him again 2-3 years down the road, and that is the ultimate best case scenario.
I just don't see any scenario where they keep Jake and he walks for nothing as benefitting this team at all. Teams let players walk all the time, but in this case, he's the biggest asset we have outside the core, and where this team is right now, letting him go for nothing is beyond stupid. Re-signing him to an 8 year deal with trade protection....great, he stays here. But whether he stays or goes, the core, the current team plus Jake doesn't seem to be enough to stay strong playoff contenders. A few young pieces added in might make that difference, and if it doesn't...well, you've added young pieces and a high pick. You can flip those young pieces for more high picks in a year or two if you want to further stockpile picks for a rebuild.
I doubt they can pull off option 7. They would lose out if they're bidding against the rest of the league for him, unless he'd take a discount to play here. Everyone should be aware that a first round pick for Jake would be north of 20, and those guys are busts almost as much as they are likely to make it in the league.
Do you think Vancouver would do Garland and Lekkerimakl for Guentzel? Maybe throw in another pick in 25 if Vancouver re-signs Guentzel. We all know if Jim wants someone he will do what it takes to acquire that player. Hopefully Dubas can use that to his advantage.
Garland, Lekkerimakl and 1st round pick for Jake is fair. Pens would probably rather have Hoglaner since he only makes about $1mill though.
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
Penguins would still have to retain about 15 percent for Garland and Lekkerimaki. I also don't know if Garland has enough top end or different skillset than what we have here. He's also 27 (so is Kuzmenko). Garland, Lekkerimaki, and a 2025 2nd that becomes a 2025 1st if Guentzel signs. That's an ok deal. I'd rather have another younger impact player over Garland, though....unless we got Kuzmenko with the intention of flipping him elsewhere.KG wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 9:55 pmI think that's a realistic deal. Would think Vancouver would rather trade Kuzmenko, but I just don't see he and Sully meshing well.pens_CT wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 8:14 pmFLPensFan wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:47 pmI definitely think #7 is a longshot, but it is an option. I'm not as enamored with a 1st rounder (although, we likely won't have one next year so getting one back would help, even if in the 20s). It's more the adding a Zegras, or trying to get someone like Lekkerimaki from Vancouver instead of Podkolzin.pens_CT wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:22 pmFLPensFan wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:42 pmGuentzel Situation Part 1: The Potential Outcomes.
Here are the 7 main outcomes I see with the Guentzel situation
1) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, and re-sign him before the summer.
2) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, and lose him this summer for nothing.
3) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, add a mid-round pick for his rights this summer.
4) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, an A-level prospect, and middle 6 type player aged 23-26.
5) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. A bidding war ensues and they get more than a 1st, top prospect, and roster player.
6) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. The Penguins receive less than expected haul of a 1st, top prospect, and roster player.
7) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, top prospect, and a roster player. Guentzel re-signs with the team over the summer.
There are a lot of other combinations I could add to go on endlessly, but those are the 6 main outcomes as I see them. IMO, outcomes 1, 4, 5, and 7 are the best outcomes, while outcomes 2, 3, and 6 are the worst potential outcomes.
The rabbit hole I started to go down before backing off was, what if they keep him, they miss the playoffs and he walks. Or keep him and he gets injured before the playoffs...and walks. Or they win the Cup...and he walks.
Maybe its just my pessimism towards this team right now, but I just see way more potential negative outcomes from keeping Jake than I do from trading him. The team wants to keep him, and I can understand that from a production point of view. He's been really, really good, and in the playoffs, he's been really, really gooder. But, the realistic view is I don't see another roster overhaul or available changes that suddenly puts this team back in the strong playoff contender before the end of the core. They needed younger, skilled legs around them, and we just don't have it.
And, I still say that a smart Guentzel and his agent, for as much as he loves playing in Pittsburgh, don't have the same blinders on as management. I think they can easily see that this Penguins team is not the best place to spend the next 7-8 years if your goal as a player is to make the playoffs and win a Stanley Cup. I don't think he necessarily wants to break the bank even if means playing in SJ or another bad team, but, if the Penguins offer you 8 years and 10M....or Colorado, New Jersey, Rangers, Dallas, etc all offer you 7 years and 10M...which option seems like the better one for your career as a player?
Their best option really is to trade Guentzel at the deadline, hope they can pickup a Zegras or Hoglander/Podkolzin type AND THEN re-sign Jake this summer. That is a definite possibility. You trade Jake away for this year, when you aren't obvious contenders, add some skilled youth, but still bring Jake back in the summer. You then add into that trading him again 2-3 years down the road, and that is the ultimate best case scenario.
I just don't see any scenario where they keep Jake and he walks for nothing as benefitting this team at all. Teams let players walk all the time, but in this case, he's the biggest asset we have outside the core, and where this team is right now, letting him go for nothing is beyond stupid. Re-signing him to an 8 year deal with trade protection....great, he stays here. But whether he stays or goes, the core, the current team plus Jake doesn't seem to be enough to stay strong playoff contenders. A few young pieces added in might make that difference, and if it doesn't...well, you've added young pieces and a high pick. You can flip those young pieces for more high picks in a year or two if you want to further stockpile picks for a rebuild.
I doubt they can pull off option 7. They would lose out if they're bidding against the rest of the league for him, unless he'd take a discount to play here. Everyone should be aware that a first round pick for Jake would be north of 20, and those guys are busts almost as much as they are likely to make it in the league.
Do you think Vancouver would do Garland and Lekkerimakl for Guentzel? Maybe throw in another pick in 25 if Vancouver re-signs Guentzel. We all know if Jim wants someone he will do what it takes to acquire that player. Hopefully Dubas can use that to his advantage.
Garland, Lekkerimakl and 1st round pick for Jake is fair. Pens would probably rather have Hoglaner since he only makes about $1mill though.
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
KG wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 9:55 pmI think that's a realistic deal. Would think Vancouver would rather trade Kuzmenko, but I just don't see he and Sully meshing well.pens_CT wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 8:14 pmFLPensFan wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:47 pmI definitely think #7 is a longshot, but it is an option. I'm not as enamored with a 1st rounder (although, we likely won't have one next year so getting one back would help, even if in the 20s). It's more the adding a Zegras, or trying to get someone like Lekkerimaki from Vancouver instead of Podkolzin.pens_CT wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:22 pmFLPensFan wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:42 pmGuentzel Situation Part 1: The Potential Outcomes.
Here are the 7 main outcomes I see with the Guentzel situation
1) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, and re-sign him before the summer.
2) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, and lose him this summer for nothing.
3) Penguins do nothing. They keep Guentzel for this year, add a mid-round pick for his rights this summer.
4) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, an A-level prospect, and middle 6 type player aged 23-26.
5) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. A bidding war ensues and they get more than a 1st, top prospect, and roster player.
6) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. The Penguins receive less than expected haul of a 1st, top prospect, and roster player.
7) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, top prospect, and a roster player. Guentzel re-signs with the team over the summer.
There are a lot of other combinations I could add to go on endlessly, but those are the 6 main outcomes as I see them. IMO, outcomes 1, 4, 5, and 7 are the best outcomes, while outcomes 2, 3, and 6 are the worst potential outcomes.
The rabbit hole I started to go down before backing off was, what if they keep him, they miss the playoffs and he walks. Or keep him and he gets injured before the playoffs...and walks. Or they win the Cup...and he walks.
Maybe its just my pessimism towards this team right now, but I just see way more potential negative outcomes from keeping Jake than I do from trading him. The team wants to keep him, and I can understand that from a production point of view. He's been really, really good, and in the playoffs, he's been really, really gooder. But, the realistic view is I don't see another roster overhaul or available changes that suddenly puts this team back in the strong playoff contender before the end of the core. They needed younger, skilled legs around them, and we just don't have it.
And, I still say that a smart Guentzel and his agent, for as much as he loves playing in Pittsburgh, don't have the same blinders on as management. I think they can easily see that this Penguins team is not the best place to spend the next 7-8 years if your goal as a player is to make the playoffs and win a Stanley Cup. I don't think he necessarily wants to break the bank even if means playing in SJ or another bad team, but, if the Penguins offer you 8 years and 10M....or Colorado, New Jersey, Rangers, Dallas, etc all offer you 7 years and 10M...which option seems like the better one for your career as a player?
Their best option really is to trade Guentzel at the deadline, hope they can pickup a Zegras or Hoglander/Podkolzin type AND THEN re-sign Jake this summer. That is a definite possibility. You trade Jake away for this year, when you aren't obvious contenders, add some skilled youth, but still bring Jake back in the summer. You then add into that trading him again 2-3 years down the road, and that is the ultimate best case scenario.
I just don't see any scenario where they keep Jake and he walks for nothing as benefitting this team at all. Teams let players walk all the time, but in this case, he's the biggest asset we have outside the core, and where this team is right now, letting him go for nothing is beyond stupid. Re-signing him to an 8 year deal with trade protection....great, he stays here. But whether he stays or goes, the core, the current team plus Jake doesn't seem to be enough to stay strong playoff contenders. A few young pieces added in might make that difference, and if it doesn't...well, you've added young pieces and a high pick. You can flip those young pieces for more high picks in a year or two if you want to further stockpile picks for a rebuild.
I doubt they can pull off option 7. They would lose out if they're bidding against the rest of the league for him, unless he'd take a discount to play here. Everyone should be aware that a first round pick for Jake would be north of 20, and those guys are busts almost as much as they are likely to make it in the league.
Do you think Vancouver would do Garland and Lekkerimakl for Guentzel? Maybe throw in another pick in 25 if Vancouver re-signs Guentzel. We all know if Jim wants someone he will do what it takes to acquire that player. Hopefully Dubas can use that to his advantage.
Garland, Lekkerimakl and 1st round pick for Jake is fair. Pens would probably rather have Hoglaner since he only makes about $1mill though.
The problem is the cap on the Vancouver side. They need to move more money out in order to acquire Jake. Whether that money comes to Pittsburgh or a third team, that remains to be seen.
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
That is a big no-go. I think any team trading for Jake is going to want some assurances of a contract with them.FLPensFan wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:42 pmGuentzel Situation Part 1: The Potential Outcomes.
Here are the 7 main outcomes I see with the Guentzel situation
7) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, top prospect, and a roster player. Guentzel re-signs with the team over the summer.Spoiler:
Spoiler:
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
Not necessarily. It’s that the Pens won’t get as much for him as a rentalPitts wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 11:28 amThat is a big no-go. I think any team trading for Jake is going to want some assurances of a contract with them.FLPensFan wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:42 pmGuentzel Situation Part 1: The Potential Outcomes.
Here are the 7 main outcomes I see with the Guentzel situation
7) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, top prospect, and a roster player. Guentzel re-signs with the team over the summer.Spoiler:
Spoiler:
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
If #7 were to happen, I'm not sure the Penguins would get the 3 pieces they want...likely only 2. But, I don't think him going elsewhere and coming back next summer is out of the question. You never know what will happen at the trade deadline. Team X could go out and make a big move, and now Team Y feels that it needs to counter by picking up someone like Guentzel for their playoff run...even if they know they cannot afford to sign him moving forward.Pitts wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 11:28 amThat is a big no-go. I think any team trading for Jake is going to want some assurances of a contract with them.FLPensFan wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:42 pmGuentzel Situation Part 1: The Potential Outcomes.
Here are the 7 main outcomes I see with the Guentzel situation
7) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, top prospect, and a roster player. Guentzel re-signs with the team over the summer.Spoiler:
Spoiler:
Asset wise, #7 is the best scenario for the Penguins, but I'm still not sure it's the best decision. The money he'll command will make it hard to fill out a competent bottom 6, goalie, and defense.
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
This was apparently Friedman's thoughts on Jake last night:
“From what I understand, no determination has been made on his future in Pittsburgh,” Friedman said. “But what I do think is th biggest factor here is where the Penguins think they’re going as a franchise over the next couple of years. I think that is going to be the true determination of Guentzel’s future in Pittsburgh or elsewhere.”
So, that sure sounds like Dubas may be realizing it's time to sell. Let's see if he actually does it.
“From what I understand, no determination has been made on his future in Pittsburgh,” Friedman said. “But what I do think is th biggest factor here is where the Penguins think they’re going as a franchise over the next couple of years. I think that is going to be the true determination of Guentzel’s future in Pittsburgh or elsewhere.”
So, that sure sounds like Dubas may be realizing it's time to sell. Let's see if he actually does it.
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
Ericf wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 11:36 amNot necessarily. It’s that the Pens won’t get as much for him as a rentalPitts wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 11:28 amThat is a big no-go. I think any team trading for Jake is going to want some assurances of a contract with them.FLPensFan wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:42 pmGuentzel Situation Part 1: The Potential Outcomes.
Here are the 7 main outcomes I see with the Guentzel situation
7) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, top prospect, and a roster player. Guentzel re-signs with the team over the summer.Spoiler:
Spoiler:
Look at what Boston gave up for a much lesser player in Tyler Bertuzzi
A 1st and 4th then Bertuzzi signed in Toronto
Even if Jake said I'm hitting free agency there will be teams willing to pony up a 1st plus.
Given that IF he says he wants to test the market you trade him, get assets and circle back during free agency
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
The Pens will get a first and a second for him as a rental but if they want a really good prospect and young NHL player too he’d have to come with an extensionthehockeyguru wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 11:42 amEricf wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 11:36 amNot necessarily. It’s that the Pens won’t get as much for him as a rentalPitts wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 11:28 amThat is a big no-go. I think any team trading for Jake is going to want some assurances of a contract with them.FLPensFan wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:42 pmGuentzel Situation Part 1: The Potential Outcomes.
Here are the 7 main outcomes I see with the Guentzel situation
7) Penguins trade Guentzel at the deadline. They pickup a 1st, top prospect, and a roster player. Guentzel re-signs with the team over the summer.Spoiler:
Spoiler:
Look at what Boston gave up for a much lesser player in Tyler Bertuzzi
A 1st and 4th then Bertuzzi signed in Toronto
Even if Jake said I'm hitting free agency there will be teams willing to pony up a 1st plus.
Given that IF he says he wants to test the market you trade him, get assets and circle back during free agency
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
As much as I want to make an excuse for Jake to stay, I really don't see a viable avenue to that happening.
So if they can sell on him and get a decent roster player, a high-end prospect and a 1st round pick, I think they have to do it. The ONLY problem I have with it is that, unless a contender has a 1st round pick from another trade, I'd hate to lose Jake for a 22nd overall, or something like that. Unless that high-end prospect is bona fide.
ETA: Smith's injury makes this decision a little more challenging,,,
So if they can sell on him and get a decent roster player, a high-end prospect and a 1st round pick, I think they have to do it. The ONLY problem I have with it is that, unless a contender has a 1st round pick from another trade, I'd hate to lose Jake for a 22nd overall, or something like that. Unless that high-end prospect is bona fide.
ETA: Smith's injury makes this decision a little more challenging,,,
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
Unfortunately you can count on the 1st round pick if it comes from this draft to be in the 20s. When you’re trading the best player in the deal it’s hard to win such a trade at least in the short term. You have to hope the prospect you obtain turns into a good player a couple of years down the road, and that a late round 1st player eventually makes the team and isn’t a bust.Guinness wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 12:00 pmAs much as I want to make an excuse for Jake to stay, I really don't see a viable avenue to that happening.
So if they can sell on him and get a decent roster player, a high-end prospect and a 1st round pick, I think they have to do it. The ONLY problem I have with it is that, unless a contender has a 1st round pick from another trade, I'd hate to lose Jake for a 22nd overall, or something like that. Unless that high-end prospect is bona fide.
ETA: Smith's injury makes this decision a little more challenging,,,
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
I voted to trade. Let’s look at this another way, he’ll be 30yr old next season, he’ll want an 8yr/10M per, NMC. Why sign him when that contract will outlast the “core”? If he was 25 and had a viable supporting cast then yes. Heck Gretzky and Messier were traded. Why pin ourselves to such a binding contract. Time to cut the cord. We’re cash strapped now, is this what we need next year?
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
Rumour :
Pens get Kuzmenko (with salary retained), Aatu Raty 21yrs C from Finland and 2024 1st rounder
Canucks get Guentzel and 5th rounder..
Pens get Kuzmenko (with salary retained), Aatu Raty 21yrs C from Finland and 2024 1st rounder
Canucks get Guentzel and 5th rounder..
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
Just trade him, in a package with Jarry (who has been excellent recently) Joseph, (in three years who could be outstanding or do a Marino, and find away to shift Rust (NTC, but move him)
Those four will bring great return if done right. We are the second lowest conceding team in the EAST. Our PP is 20 goals short of what it should be, we consistently don’t shoot and stand still with the puck. Man advantage move puck fast to take advantage of the extra man. Sort this problem out and we’re leading the division!!! Get a coach who says do this on the PP or you’re not on the PP. Letang back to his old ways of skating like a phsyco ways, recovering due to errant pass or out of position. Please play simple! Back to topic!! Trade JG. Trade 4, huge opportunity to win this year and get younger on the ice.
Those four will bring great return if done right. We are the second lowest conceding team in the EAST. Our PP is 20 goals short of what it should be, we consistently don’t shoot and stand still with the puck. Man advantage move puck fast to take advantage of the extra man. Sort this problem out and we’re leading the division!!! Get a coach who says do this on the PP or you’re not on the PP. Letang back to his old ways of skating like a phsyco ways, recovering due to errant pass or out of position. Please play simple! Back to topic!! Trade JG. Trade 4, huge opportunity to win this year and get younger on the ice.
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
Wouldn't be in a rush to make the trade. Where is this rumor??Pens4Life wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:07 pmRumour :
Pens get Kuzmenko (with salary retained), Aatu Raty 21yrs C from Finland and 2024 1st rounder
Canucks get Guentzel and 5th rounder..
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
Bad rumor because it completely fails for the Canucks cap wise. They can't retain on Kuzmenko. They would need us to retain salary on Jake. On a Kuzmenko for Guentzel deal, Penguins would need to retain 3-5% just to make the cap work. And if the idea is to start the rebuild, acquiring a 27 year old Kuzmenko probably isn't the right piece.Pens4Life wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:07 pmRumour :
Pens get Kuzmenko (with salary retained), Aatu Raty 21yrs C from Finland and 2024 1st rounder
Canucks get Guentzel and 5th rounder..
But if they wanted to do Kuzmenko, Lekkerimaki, and a 2024 1st for Jake with 5% retained maybe I do it just to flip Kuzmenko over the summer or as a deadline deal next year. Lekkerimaki>>>>Raty
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Re: What do you think the Pens will do with Jake by the trade deadline
How many offers do you expect Dubas to receive for Jake? 10? That's pretty exciting to have the player that's most coveted at the deadline.
Actually, I would rather acquire the most coveted deadline player lol. We had our time...
Actually, I would rather acquire the most coveted deadline player lol. We had our time...