The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race

[Cow_Master66]

As sad as it is, next year is the year to bottom out for Gavin McKenna.

I'd say this team is tracking nicely to accommodate.

[FLPensFan]

SJ wins last night. Penguins are now 1 point from worst overall. They are the worst team in the East, and have the worst goal differential.

But potential wins against powerhouses Anaheim and Montreal could mean everything is fine. (Honestly at this point, I cannot even mark those 2 games as better than 50% odds of winning)

[largegarlic]

Obviously, they won't keep up this pattern exactly, but so far, the Pens have lost to all the likely playoff teams they've faced (not sure Calgary holds onto a spot, but we'll give them the benefit of the doubt) and won all the games against likely non-playoff teams. It doesn't quite work like this, since there are more divisional games, and the division might not have exactly half its teams make the playoffs, but roughly, half the games are against playoff teams and half the games are against non-playoff teams. So, if the Pens keep up their pattern, they'll end up around, say, 80-85 points. Last season, the Devils finished 10th from the bottom on 81 points, but Calgary and Seattle finished below them on tie-breakers, as they also had 81 points. Buffalo was 11th with 84 points.

So, I'd bet that unless there are some drastic changes (e.g., new coach, Crosby/Malkin injury), the Pens will probably end up in that range and pick somewhere from 8-11. Montreal finished 5th from the bottom with 76 points, so it might not take a huge downward deviation to get into the top 5, but there was a big gap between Montreal and Columbus with 66 points, so it seems unlikely that the Pens bottom out enough to get into the top 3 or 4 picks without some lottery luck.

[Coffey Break]

I find it absolutely impossible for any team that fields Sid and/or Geno to finish in the bottom 3 or 4 in any league, especially while they are both playing at elite levels. Those guys aren't hardwired to lose.

Only saving grace is that maybe the rebuild is masked a bit by playing 87-71 on the same line so you effectively become a one-line team while also enabling Sid/Geno to rack up as many points as possible in their illustrious careers. And then hope you finish somewhere in the bottom 10.

[FLPensFan]

Obviously, they won't keep up this pattern exactly, but so far, the Pens have lost to all the likely playoff teams they've faced (not sure Calgary holds onto a spot, but we'll give them the benefit of the doubt) and won all the games against likely non-playoff teams. It doesn't quite work like this, since there are more divisional games, and the division might not have exactly half its teams make the playoffs, but roughly, half the games are against playoff teams and half the games are against non-playoff teams. So, if the Pens keep up their pattern, they'll end up around, say, 80-85 points. Last season, the Devils finished 10th from the bottom on 81 points, but Calgary and Seattle finished below them on tie-breakers, as they also had 81 points. Buffalo was 11th with 84 points.

So, I'd bet that unless there are some drastic changes (e.g., new coach, Crosby/Malkin injury), the Pens will probably end up in that range and pick somewhere from 8-11. Montreal finished 5th from the bottom with 76 points, so it might not take a huge downward deviation to get into the top 5, but there was a big gap between Montreal and Columbus with 66 points, so it seems unlikely that the Pens bottom out enough to get into the top 3 or 4 picks without some lottery luck.

So, this gave me a chance to do a fun exercise and go through the entire schedule to try and predict where the Penguins may end up points wise. So...I did. A few notes:
--I stuck to the formula that, the Penguins are going to lose against last year's playoff teams and win vs the non-playoff teams.
--I didn't count OTL/SOL into the equation. Everything was either win or lose, which, won't happen. They'll likely eek out a few single point games.
--I deviated from the formula 9 times, giving the Penguins 5 wins where they should have lost, but also 4 losses where they should have won. Nobody sweeps all games against all opponents or gets swept. There will be a few games here and there that go against the grain.

The end result I came up with, sticking mainly to the lose against playoff teams, win against non playoff teams:
--At the trade deadline this year, the Penguins had 51 points in 65 games. Last year, the Penguins had 64 points in 61 games at the trade deadline, so this would be a significant drop off (13 points).
--I had the Penguins finishing 33-48-1, 67 points, a 21 point drop off from last season.
--Last season, 67 points would have drafted 5th overall.

Some other notes:
--The Penguins have a brutal January. While only 1 back to back game, 9 of 14 games are on the road. Start with FLA and CAR on the road, a 5 game homestand, then a 7 game road trip to end the month starting in BUF & WSH, then out to the West coast.

--The Penguins have a brutal stretch of games heading into the trade deadline....BOS, TOR, COL, VGK (on deadline day), MIN, VGK.

--I went against the formula and gave the Penguins wins against NYI, CGY, NSH, NYI, and VGK. Islanders have a lot of injuries and they weren't a strong playoff team last year. Nashville was a playoff team last year, but is bad this year. Calgary wasn't in playoffs last year but is in the mix this year, and Vegas I just felt like the Penguins were due a win against a better team.

--I gave the Penguins losses against OTT, SEA, PHI, and CHI. Ottawa is a bit better than last year, Seattle is up and down, a ton of games against the Flyers and cannot win them all, and Chicago late in the season seems like a loss that shouldn't happen but does.

We'll see how true these standings end up, but 67 points overall would put us likely around 4-7th (last year would have been 5th). So we'd miss out on Martone and Hagens, but maybe have a shot at Misa, McQueen, Frondell at center or Hensler or Shaefer on d, the top RD and LD out there, respectively.

[Puck-Lurker]

I find it absolutely impossible for any team that fields Sid and/or Geno to finish in the bottom 3 or 4 in any league, especially while they are both playing at elite levels. Those guys aren't hardwired to lose.

Only saving grace is that maybe the rebuild is masked a bit by playing 87-71 on the same line so you effectively become a one-line team while also enabling Sid/Geno to rack up as many points as possible in their illustrious careers. And then hope you finish somewhere in the bottom 10.

Sadly, our defence is hardwired to lose right now

[FLPensFan]

I find it absolutely impossible for any team that fields Sid and/or Geno to finish in the bottom 3 or 4 in any league, especially while they are both playing at elite levels. Those guys aren't hardwired to lose.

Only saving grace is that maybe the rebuild is masked a bit by playing 87-71 on the same line so you effectively become a one-line team while also enabling Sid/Geno to rack up as many points as possible in their illustrious careers. And then hope you finish somewhere in the bottom 10.

Sadly, our defence is hardwired to lose right now

Being a one line team won't get us very far, either. 6 of the last 8 goals scored by the Penguins came from the first line. Lizotte's empty netter and Puustinen against the Wild are the only 2 non-first line goals over the last 3 games.

[Cow_Master66]

They are letting up 3.77 GPG, and have the 3rd worse goal differential....Anyone who's watched knows that without some pretty good goaltending, those numbers should be much higher. This team is going absolutely nowhere, regardless of how many terrible teams the squeak wins out of...

[Cow_Master66]

This is a pretty good description by Madden today in the Trib:

"When the expansion Vegas Golden Knights made the Stanley Cup Final in their first season, it was said they had four second lines. With Crosby and Malkin playing together, the Penguins have three fourth lines."

[Puck-Lurker]

This is a pretty good description by Madden today in the Trib:

"When the expansion Vegas Golden Knights made the Stanley Cup Final in their first season, it was said they had four second lines. With Crosby and Malkin playing together, the Penguins have three fourth lines."

Funny thing is that isn't even the heart of the problem.

We have three 3rd pairings right now.

[largegarlic]

I didn't think I'd be the optimistic outlier for predicting that they get ~80 points.

[Puck-Lurker]

The next few games will tell us where we're at. Bottom feeder, or some distance from being a bubble team.

[FLPensFan]

The Penguins are 3 points out of last place in the league.
The Penguins are 1 point out of the 2nd WC spot.
The Penguins are one of 6 teams to have played 14 games, NJ has played 15.
So, Detroit is behind PIT in the Eastern conference, but they have 3 games in hand on PIT.

The Atlantic division is absolutely horrible. 5 teams are .500 or worse. 1 team is over .600% points percentage, Florida.
The Metro is stacked. 4 teams are .500 or worse, but 4 teams are .600% point percentage or better (CAR, NJ, NYR, WSH)

[lemieuxReturns]

Sid and Geno are good enough to prohibit a proper quick rebuild. The problem with that is they are not good enough to help this team compete with what the rest of the team is comprised of. So it’s just going to be a mediocre team until they retire.

[FLPensFan]

Sid and Geno are good enough to prohibit a proper quick rebuild. The problem with that is they are not good enough to help this team compete with what the rest of the team is comprised of. So it’s just going to be a mediocre team until they retire.

Prior management messed up on smart moves:

--Choosing to resign Kapanen to an absurd RFA $ valuve, instead of retaining ERod
--Choosing to chase Jeff Carter instead of someone like Sam Bennett
--Choosing not to go after someone like Dylan Strome in UFA

Carter had his success here for a bit, but Bennett was a game changer for Florida. And ERod was also clutch for Florida and has been just as successful in COL and FLA as he was in PIT, except he did it without Sidney Crosby. Strome has three 20+ goal seasons, 2 with WSH that were both 60+ point seasons.

Those 3 are the types of players Hextall needed to chase. Dubas...I don't think had the same quality of young guys to try and get. That one summer and trade deadline was the year to make the youth moves, and the Penguins failed to do so.

[Cow_Master66]

Sid and Geno are good enough to prohibit a proper quick rebuild. The problem with that is they are not good enough to help this team compete with what the rest of the team is comprised of. So it’s just going to be a mediocre team until they retire.

Prior management messed up on smart moves:

--Choosing to resign Kapanen to an absurd RFA $ valuve, instead of retaining ERod
--Choosing to chase Jeff Carter instead of someone like Sam Bennett
--Choosing not to go after someone like Dylan Strome in UFA

Carter had his success here for a bit, but Bennett was a game changer for Florida. And ERod was also clutch for Florida and has been just as successful in COL and FLA as he was in PIT, except he did it without Sidney Crosby. Strome has three 20+ goal seasons, 2 with WSH that were both 60+ point seasons.

Those 3 are the types of players Hextall needed to chase. Dubas...I don't think had the same quality of young guys to try and get. That one summer and trade deadline was the year to make the youth moves, and the Penguins failed to do so.

As someone who defended Erod when he was here, I recall the vast majority of posters wanting him gone.

[Antonio]

Erod was fine for what he was but of course, he made 1 mistake in the playoffs and the greatest coach in the league wanted his family killed and for him to be deported to Afghanistan. Erod laughed last though.

[Puck-Lurker]

Erod was fine for what he was but of course, he made 1 mistake in the playoffs and the greatest coach in the league wanted his family killed and for him to be deported to Afghanistan. Erod laughed last though.

I'm still surprised we didn't resign him. It would not have been expensive and he's a useful player, lots of value/money.

[FLPensFan]

Erod was fine for what he was but of course, he made 1 mistake in the playoffs and the greatest coach in the league wanted his family killed and for him to be deported to Afghanistan. Erod laughed last though.

I'm still surprised we didn't resign him. It would not have been expensive and he's a useful player, lots of value/money.

I would have much rather given ERod 3.2M for 2 years than giving that to Kapanen. Plays all 3 forward positions well, can play on any line, PP, and PK. That's about as versatile as it gets. He also has 25 points in his last 38 playoff games, with 11 goals in there. Really sounds like someone Sullivan should have blown a gasket over.

Did Sullivan do the same thing when Tristan Jarry **** the bed and lost us a few playoff series? Nope.

[FLPensFan]

15 games in, the Penguins are 3 points out of last place, and 3 points out of the final WC spot in the East. 12 points total.
Last year, 15 games in, the Penguins had 16 points total. They were 9 points out of last place, 2 points out of the final WC spot.

This season, they currently sit at 8th worst, however, 4 teams below them have a game in hand, and Anaheim below them has 3 games in hand.

But don't worry, that flip will switch any day now.

[dark_forces]

Erod was fine for what he was but of course, he made 1 mistake in the playoffs and the greatest coach in the league wanted his family killed and for him to be deported to Afghanistan. Erod laughed last though.

I'm still surprised we didn't resign him. It would not have been expensive and he's a useful player, lots of value/money.

I would have much rather given ERod 3.2M for 2 years than giving that to Kapanen. Plays all 3 forward positions well, can play on any line, PP, and PK. That's about as versatile as it gets. He also has 25 points in his last 38 playoff games, with 11 goals in there. Really sounds like someone Sullivan should have blown a gasket over.

Did Sullivan do the same thing when Tristan Jarry **** the bed and lost us a few playoff series? Nope.

I still believe that losing McCann was a big blow. He could play all 3 forward positions, had speed, and would probably still be scoring at a 20 goal pace if he were still here.

[FLPensFan]

After tonight's game, the Penguins are 24th overall in the league, or 9th worst overall, 6-9-2, 14 points in 17 games.

There are currently 4 teams at 12 points, tied for league worst, CBJ, ANA, MTL, NSH. MTL and NSH have a game in hand on the Penguins, while CBJ and ANA have 3 games in hand on the Penguins.

There are currently 4 teams at 13 points, DET, SEA, CHI, and SJ. SJ has played 17 games like the Penguins. CHI has 1 game in hand, SEA 2 games in hand, and DET has 3 games in hand.

There are currently 3 other teams tied with PIT with 14 points, PHI, STL, and OTT. PHI has one game in hand, STL has 2 games in hand, OTT has 3 games in hand.

So while the Penguins currently sit 24th overall, 9th worst, 4 teams below them have 1 game in hand, 2 teams have 2 games in hand, and 4 teams have 3 games in hand.

If you go straight by points percentage, the Penguins are currently 5th worst overall, and 3 of the 4 teams worse than them have 1 game in hand.

The Penguins are only ONE POINT out of WC2 spot...but Tampa (currently in that WC2 spot) has 3 games in hand, and the Rangers (currently in WC1 spot) have 4 games in hand.

If he isn't already (his frequent scouting trips recently says he already is), Dubas can start selling at any time. This team is doing worse than last year's team with arguably better players (at least at forward). This team isn't making the playoffs, and will hold true to the X points out of a playoff spot by Thanksgiving will miss playoffs.

[Puck-Lurker]

After tonight's game, the Penguins are 24th overall in the league, or 9th worst overall, 6-9-2, 14 points in 17 games.

There are currently 4 teams at 12 points, tied for league worst, CBJ, ANA, MTL, NSH. MTL and NSH have a game in hand on the Penguins, while CBJ and ANA have 3 games in hand on the Penguins.

There are currently 4 teams at 13 points, DET, SEA, CHI, and SJ. SJ has played 17 games like the Penguins. CHI has 1 game in hand, SEA 2 games in hand, and DET has 3 games in hand.

There are currently 3 other teams tied with PIT with 14 points, PHI, STL, and OTT. PHI has one game in hand, STL has 2 games in hand, OTT has 3 games in hand.

So while the Penguins currently sit 24th overall, 9th worst, 4 teams below them have 1 game in hand, 2 teams have 2 games in hand, and 4 teams have 3 games in hand.

If you go straight by points percentage, the Penguins are currently 5th worst overall, and 3 of the 4 teams worse than them have 1 game in hand.

The Penguins are only ONE POINT out of WC2 spot...but Tampa (currently in that WC2 spot) has 3 games in hand, and the Rangers (currently in WC1 spot) have 4 games in hand.

If he isn't already (his frequent scouting trips recently says he already is), Dubas can start selling at any time. This team is doing worse than last year's team with arguably better players (at least at forward). This team isn't making the playoffs, and will hold true to the X points out of a playoff spot by Thanksgiving will miss playoffs.

I'm going to argue our defensive group is significantly worse than last year. By a metric f-ton.

Not much in the way of changes either. We lost Ludvig, POJ, Ruhwedel and gained Grzelcyk and Aho.

Karlsson, Letang, Pettersson, Graves, Shea, St Ivany were here last year. And they have fallen off a collective cliff. Apart from Graves who is starting to climb from rock bottom.

The forwards group is fine. We have enough goaltenders that can stop pucks. That leaves the D and one other crucial facet.


Coaching. Fire Sullivan.

[Admin]

https://bsky.app/profile/hockeyviz.com/ ... i32uytak2b

The above projects the Pens to just miss the playoffs again.

[Pruezy11881]

Dubas was here in Erie last night watching the Brampton-Erie game. 4 top prospects were playing in the game. Jack Ivankovic, Porter Martone, Matthew Schaefer, and Malcolm Spence