2024-2025 Season Random Penguins Fodder

[Victor]

Saw on PP that the NHL released the '25-26 offer sheet tiers. With the cap going up so much next year I assumed most teams would have a ton of space but was surprised to see quite a few estimated with < $10M. The most glaring was DAL, as they have < $6M with only 15 players signed. They can let Benn, Duchene, Dadonov and Granlun walk as UFA's but they still need to replace them with somebody. I'm not sure what their player pipeline looks like. I've seen discussion about Blumel here.

Another interesting team is EDM. Bouchard has to be in line for a massive raise even though he's an RFA. 25 y.o. #1 RD's don't grow on trees. The big factor that I assume really complicates things for them is that McDavid needs a new deal in '26-27. If Draisaitl is $14M per, that's at least gotta be the floor right?

I guess my question is what teams look to be cap casualties in the coming few years that the Pens could target? Trades, offer sheets, UFA's not being resigned by previous team, etc. I really don't see the cap going up anywhere near what it did this coming year in '26-27, given all the economic uncertainty going on right now (please, I'm not looking to start any kind of discussion on this, just pointing it out for the purpose of NHL salary economics). I would assume agents are approaching any contract negotiations with the intent of "gettin' while the gettin's good". Obviously they're always trying to get the most for their clients but have to think there's extra urgency if the cap's going back to flat or minimal increases again. I hope Pens' management is looking at this in their rebuild strategy, not just draft picks, draft pick,s draft picks. I think these cap economics can really be a positive factor in accelerating the rebuild if used effectively.

Thoughts? Again, I'm not very educated on the business side of things so I'm curious to know/learn.

The cap is going up even more the following year. The economy has never been better.

Is the cap increase guaranteed? Everywhere I've seen it it's been phrased as "estimated to" or "could" increase. If that is tied to things like ticket revenue wouldn't that carry a bit of uncertainty and variability TBD beyond this year? Or is that how player escrow works, i.e, the owners and players agree to a set cap increase(s) but the owners hedge a certain amount of potential losses due to revenue variability by being able to recoup from that?

Nothing is set in stone, but, all predictions have the cap going up significantly. Easiest way to put it, some of the hard caps they put around limiting the cap due to COVID was too restrictive and they started making a lot more money sooner than anticipated. I had also heard that this year and last year, the NHL gave the players back their escrow already, meaning they already knew they were well above the 14% or so that they hold to verify that the revenues check out.

I think the new Sportsnet deal that was signed last year has a lot to do with the big surge, but surely is not the sole reason for the increase in revenue, which leads to an increase in the cap.

Here are the latest projections on the cap: https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/nh ... e-seasons/

According to this projection, the cap floor in 27-28 will be almost what the cap ceiling was in 23-24. It could go up very, very quickly.

[Victor]

[Wyopen]

Any thoughts on why KD hasn’t signed any of our own RFAs ?

[Victor]

Any thoughts on why KD hasn’t signed any of our own RFAs ?

He has been with Team Cananda for the World Championship. Maybe that's why we haven't heard anything yet.

There's not a lot of work to do though. None of Dewar, Tomasino, Ponomarev, Timmins, Gauthier should be too difficult to negotiate a new contract with. Gauthier is blocked by other players in net, so he might ask to be moved if all other goalies are kept.

[Puck-Lurker]

Any thoughts on why KD hasn’t signed any of our own RFAs ?

He has been with Team Cananda for the World Championship. Maybe that's why we haven't heard anything yet.

There's not a lot of work to do though. None of Dewar, Tomasino, Ponomarev, Timmins, Gauthier should be too difficult to negotiate a new contract with. Gauthier is blocked by other players in net, so he might ask to be moved if all other goalies are kept.

All of our goalies are blocked by Jarry and Ned. The current pecking order of the rest seems to be Blomqvist, Murashov, Gauthier, Larson.

Jarry you're dealing with sunk cost. He has a bit of cap hit is largely untradeable and when he's on, actually a decent enough starter.

Ned is a backup. Good days and bad days. Not starter material. Though he was a better starter than Jarry last season. I figure Dubas might try to trade Ned or include him in a deal. Wouldn't be surprised if Ned is kept either, his numbers won't make him that attractive.

Blomqvist disappointed a bit during the end of last season. He's youngish still and could bounce back, but it's a sobering experience.

Murashov was riding a hot streak for a while and looked amazing. But he too was out of sorts late season. When Blomqvist was injured, he was called up to WBS, so Pens do think highly of him

Gauthier was looking like he'd be #6, but backed up in WBS during playoffs. If any of the goalies ahead of him are traded he's got a job in Wilkes.

Larsson.. I think that ship sailed. Had a good stretch and fell down to earth after injury.

[FLPensFan]

Any thoughts on why KD hasn’t signed any of our own RFAs ?

He has been with Team Cananda for the World Championship. Maybe that's why we haven't heard anything yet.

There's not a lot of work to do though. None of Dewar, Tomasino, Ponomarev, Timmins, Gauthier should be too difficult to negotiate a new contract with. Gauthier is blocked by other players in net, so he might ask to be moved if all other goalies are kept.

All of our goalies are blocked by Jarry and Ned. The current pecking order of the rest seems to be Blomqvist, Murashov, Gauthier, Larson.

Jarry you're dealing with sunk cost. He has a bit of cap hit is largely untradeable and when he's on, actually a decent enough starter.

Ned is a backup. Good days and bad days. Not starter material. Though he was a better starter than Jarry last season. I figure Dubas might try to trade Ned or include him in a deal. Wouldn't be surprised if Ned is kept either, his numbers won't make him that attractive.

Blomqvist disappointed a bit during the end of last season. He's youngish still and could bounce back, but it's a sobering experience.

Murashov was riding a hot streak for a while and looked amazing. But he too was out of sorts late season. When Blomqvist was injured, he was called up to WBS, so Pens do think highly of him

Gauthier was looking like he'd be #6, but backed up in WBS during playoffs. If any of the goalies ahead of him are traded he's got a job in Wilkes.

Larsson.. I think that ship sailed. Had a good stretch and fell down to earth after injury.

I'd like to see Larsson get a shot in the NHL. His biggest issue for me is he was injured I think 3 times last year. The end of the season, I don't think any of the Penguins goalies really played good. WBS lost steam as a whole at the end of the season with all the callups and injuries of their own.

Gauthier is the only goalie not under contract for next season. Dubas will have his work cut out for him, as none of his goalies deserve to be in Wheeling.
--can he move one of Ned or Jarry over the summer?
--can he move one of Gauthier's rights or Blomqvist in a trade for a younger top 6 or middle pairing d-man?

I doubt there is a taker for Jarry. So, let's say we move Ned, and ride with Jarry and Larsson to start. You still have to figure out how to get Blomqvist, Murashov, and Gauthier the proper workload. Or maybe you start Blomqvist as the NHL backup, and rotate Larsson, Gauthier, and Murashov at the AHL level....50% starts for Murashov, and the other 2 splitting starts, with the hotter of the 2 getting a bit more action. If Blomqvist falters, you bring up Larsson...or maybe later in the season, Murashov. I think Murashov still needs at least half a season in the AHL as the main starter.

Decisions, decisions.