The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race

[Michael74]

From Yohe today:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/624353 ... ed_article

The Penguins are operating as though they’ll have access to the New York Rangers’ first-round pick this season — the one they acquired in the trade with Vancouver that sent Marcus Pettersson and Drew O’Connor to the Canucks. If New York finishes with one of the NHL’s worst 13 records, it can choose to send the Penguins either its 2025 or 2026 first-round draft pick. The Rangers don’t have to tell the Penguins their plans for that pick until 48 hours before the draft. I don’t think the Penguins have a clue what the Rangers will do.

Do the Rangers fancy themselves contenders next season? If so, they might be more inclined to use, say, the 12th pick in this draft, presuming they would finish higher in the standings next season. Of course, what if the 2025-26 campaign is a disaster for the seemingly declining Rangers? There’s a prize in the 2026 NHL Draft, and his name is Gavin McKenna, the best prospect since Connor McDavid. Teams will be hesitant to trade away their 2026 first-round picks because of the possibility, slight or not, of getting lucky and landing the top pick.

I sense the Penguins will be perfectly pleased with whatever choice the Rangers make. They simply have to wait and see. But the Penguins are preparing to have two picks in the first round in June, as they should be.

I think that's kind of ridiculous that the Rangers don't have to let them know until 48 hours before the draft. It seems more reasonable to say 48 hours after the Rangers' draft position is determined.

The terms were top 13 protected, so we knew the stipulation. Honestly I seriously doubt the Rangers believed they would be in this position. The best case scenario is that the Rags finish 14th -15th OA. Win one then lose one. But if it is deferred to next year that might not be such a bad thing.

I really want the Rangers to keep their pick this year and give us next year's. I expect them (whether they think so or not) to be a bit worse next season. Since next year's draft is supposed to be much deeper, I would rather have that pick! But, I'm guessing the Rangers will feel the same.

That's an unenviable position for the Rangers to be in. If they are wrong in their calculation here it could be disastrous for Drury. Better them than us.

[FLPensFan]

From Yohe today:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/624353 ... ed_article

The Penguins are operating as though they’ll have access to the New York Rangers’ first-round pick this season — the one they acquired in the trade with Vancouver that sent Marcus Pettersson and Drew O’Connor to the Canucks. If New York finishes with one of the NHL’s worst 13 records, it can choose to send the Penguins either its 2025 or 2026 first-round draft pick. The Rangers don’t have to tell the Penguins their plans for that pick until 48 hours before the draft. I don’t think the Penguins have a clue what the Rangers will do.

Do the Rangers fancy themselves contenders next season? If so, they might be more inclined to use, say, the 12th pick in this draft, presuming they would finish higher in the standings next season. Of course, what if the 2025-26 campaign is a disaster for the seemingly declining Rangers? There’s a prize in the 2026 NHL Draft, and his name is Gavin McKenna, the best prospect since Connor McDavid. Teams will be hesitant to trade away their 2026 first-round picks because of the possibility, slight or not, of getting lucky and landing the top pick.

I sense the Penguins will be perfectly pleased with whatever choice the Rangers make. They simply have to wait and see. But the Penguins are preparing to have two picks in the first round in June, as they should be.

I think that's kind of ridiculous that the Rangers don't have to let them know until 48 hours before the draft. It seems more reasonable to say 48 hours after the Rangers' draft position is determined.

The terms were top 13 protected, so we knew the stipulation. Honestly I seriously doubt the Rangers believed they would be in this position. The best case scenario is that the Rags finish 14th -15th OA. Win one then lose one. But if it is deferred to next year that might not be such a bad thing.

I really want the Rangers to keep their pick this year and give us next year's. I expect them (whether they think so or not) to be a bit worse next season. Since next year's draft is supposed to be much deeper, I would rather have that pick! But, I'm guessing the Rangers will feel the same.

My money says the smart play is for the Rangers to give us the pick this year, even if it is pick 10-13. 3 reasons why:
--I don't think the Rangers ever expected to be this low; I doubt they have the expectation that they will drop this low again next year.
--It is highly unlikely that they are bottom 5 worst team next year.
--Next year is a much deeper draft. In theory, the Rangers could make the playoffs, lose in the first round, and likely get a player as good if not better at 17-20th overall in 2026 than what they can get at 10-13th overall in this year's draft.

Stranger things have happened, but it seems like it makes more sense to give up this year's pick in a weaker draft.

[Victor]

Seattle won last night 5-0 over the Canucks. There's now a glut of teams in the 69-71 points range, ranking 4th, now Boston, to 8th, Pittsburgh.

Boston had 1 point in their last 9 games.

[Victor]

Some interesting games this weekend to keep an eye on.
- Penguins play at Dallas today and at Chicago tomorrow. They are 2 points behind Anaheim.
- Boston plays against Carolina and Buffalo against Tampa tonight. Tomorrow they play each other in Buffalo. At this point Buffalo is the most likely to "steal" that 8th overall spot for the draft lottery. The Sabres are 7-3 in the their last 10 and are currently 2 points behing Pittsburgh with 2 games in hand.
- Seattle plays at SJ tonight.

About the Rangers' pick:
- Rangers play NJ tonight. Both teams are 5-4-1 in their last 10.
- Montreal, 2 points ahead of NYR, plays against Philly tonight and Nasvhille tomorrow.
- Columbus also plays twice this weekend, against much tougher competition though: Toronto and Ottawa. They are currently 2 points behind NYR and 3-6-1 in their last 10.

[FLPensFan]

Montreal beat Philly tonight. If they beat Nashville tomorrow, they will have 85 points and officially eliminate the Penguins, Bruins, and Flyers from the playoffs.
Buffalo has a chance at a max of 86 points, so they will be eliminated with Montreal's next 2 points.

Also looking like 5 of the 7 Canadian teams will make the playoffs, with Calgary and Vancouver the exceptions. Vancouver traded Miller and hasn't been the same since. Chytil suffered his 5th concussion by age 25, his career is threatened by concussion syndrome. Calgary got Farabee and Frost a month before the deadline...that hasn't worked out. Columbus got only Luke Kunin, who has zero points in 12 games....that didn't work out. Columbus was the one team I think that should have went hard after Rakell. They are 10th in goals per game, but since the deadline they are 23rd. They were 5th worst in goals against per game, and have been 2nd worst in GA/game since the trade deadline.

[Pens4Life]

I hope Canadiens win and put a stop to this nonsense Pens run.. we need to tank it in last games.

We are already at pick #9

[Victor]

I doubt being officially eliminated from the playoffs would change anything. Sid has a 12-game point streak going, with 10 goals, 18 points. Guys like McGroarty and Koivunen aren't going to play thinking about what position they are going to draft.

Their next 2 games are home and home against Chicago, who are only 2 points ahead of SJ for best odds at the draft lottery. There's a reasonable chance we'll see 2 wins.

[FLPensFan]

Montreal won. Although NHL.com has not updated elimination...Montreal winning officially eliminated the Penguins
--Montreal has 85 points and 5 games remaining. The possess WC2 spot.
--Pittsburgh has 74 points and 4 games remaining. If the Penguins were to go 4-0, that would still only bring them to 82 points.

In addition, Buffalo beat Boston today. Buffalo is technically above Pittsburgh now in 8th overall spot. PIT and BUF tied with 74 points (and so is ANA), but both BUF and ANA have 2 games in hand (which means their point percentage is higher).

Penguins currently sit in 7th overall. Seattle is in the 6th spot, 72 points, 1 game in hand. SEA remaining games are 2 against LA, 1 against UTA, 1 against VGK and 1 against STL.

Philly and Boston sit with 71 points. I don't think either team is going to go on a big winning streak to end the season. 6th or 7th overall now seems most likely for the Penguins.

[Michael74]

We need to lose these games, winning now is just cowardly, tank and send the kids down. WB could use them as they're actually making the post season.

For the big club there should be no motivation whatsoever to accrue points that only harm us. Lose!

[Michael74]

Teams below 82 points and who have tough schedules CLB 77, Isles78, Wings 79, Rags 79.

All these teams have struggled of late, yes they have games in hand, but our schedule is the easiest. We can still pass them. Really concerned with CLB, but any of them can falter. Anaheim also has a tough schedule, we could absolutely pass them up. Level in points, they have two games in hand but a much tougher schedule. BUF has a chance to pass us but that's far from certain.

Every REG loss for us is just so so important. I hope the organization FINALLY does the right thing. LOSE!

[Fast B]

We need to lose these games, winning now is just cowardly, tank and send the kids down. WB could use them as they're actually making the post season.

For the big club there should be no motivation whatsoever to accrue points that only harm us. Lose!

[Puck-Lurker]

On track for finishing 7th from the bottom.

[KG]

Bruins tanking like nobody's business. Hopefully Boston woo's Sully to go back home and help right the ship there.

[Michael74]

On track for finishing 7th from the bottom.

Other teams have tougher schedules than we do. Now, they have games in hand, but aren't favored in many of them at all. We could win out. Lets hope not. Point is, I wouldn't count on 7tht just yet. I'd say it's unlikely. But I hope you're right.

[Puck-Lurker]

Bruins tanking like nobody's business. Hopefully Boston woo's Sully to go back home and help right the ship there.

He'd be... shipping up to Boston.

I'll see myself out

[ejd43]

Bruins tanking like nobody's business. Hopefully Boston woo's Sully to go back home and help right the ship there.

He'd be... shipping up to Boston.

I'll see myself out

Well played sir. Well played.

[pekkasteele]

On track for finishing 7th from the bottom.

Other teams have tougher schedules than we do. Now, they have games in hand, but aren't favored in many of them at all. We could win out. Lets hope not. Point is, I wouldn't count on 7tht just yet. I'd say it's unlikely. But I hope you're right.

Well we do seem to do worse against bad teams, so maybe that is a good thing.

[Michael74]

On track for finishing 7th from the bottom.

Other teams have tougher schedules than we do. Now, they have games in hand, but aren't favored in many of them at all. We could win out. Lets hope not. Point is, I wouldn't count on 7tht just yet. I'd say it's unlikely. But I hope you're right.

Well we do seem to do worse against bad teams, so maybe that is a good thing.

Let's hope so! And that'll be aptly tested out AS we're playing two teams (CHI and BOS) that have a combined THREE wins in their last 22 games.

[KG]

Rangers are playing this game like they want their pick back for this season!

[Victor]

Rangers are playing this game like they want their pick back for this season!

With that loss, Rangers are 6 points out of WC2 with 5 games remaining, very likely to miss the playoffs.

They're also 12th now, 3 points behind Utah for 14th. Pittsburgh might have two picks in the top 12.

[Michael74]

Rangers are playing this game like they want their pick back for this season!

With that loss, Rangers are 6 points out of WC2 with 5 games remaining, very likely to miss the playoffs.

They're also 12th now, 3 points behind Utah for 14th. Pittsburgh might have two picks in the top 12.

If it's that high they'll likely keep the pick. We need them to win a couple here.

[FLPensFan]

Seattle wins tonight. Although tied in points and games played, Seattle has more wins in regulation, officially knocking the Penguins back down to 6th overall.

Anaheim also won tonight, jumping up to 76 points with 5 games remaining. There are currently 3 teams with 74 points. The Penguins in 6th overall are the lowest based on games played and regulation wins. Penguins and Seattle both have 74 points, both with 4 games remaining. Buffalo also have 74 points, but both have 6 games remaining. Buffalo is highest in the standings of the 74 point teams.

Games remaining (H or A)
-PIT - CHI(H), NJ(A), BOS(H), WSH(H)
-SEA - UTA(A), VGK(A), STL(H), LA(H)
-ANA - CGY(H), LA(A), COL(H), MIN(A), WPG(A)
-BUF - CAR(H), CBJ(A), FLA(A), TB(A), TOR(H), PHI(H)

Pittsburgh has a good track on 6th or 7th. The nightmare scenario for Pittsburgh would be finishing 6th, only to have Schaefer, Misa, Hagens, Frondell, and Desnoyers go 1-5 in some order. You miss out on the centers and are stuck with either Martone or Eklund. Both have their plusses and minuses, but, neither are really what the Penguins badly need.

[Puck-Lurker]

I dont think Desnoyers gets picked top 5. But we fortunately have many needs.

A good center for he future is one. But quality defensemen we need just as badly.

[Victor]

Rangers are playing this game like they want their pick back for this season!

With that loss, Rangers are 6 points out of WC2 with 5 games remaining, very likely to miss the playoffs.

They're also 12th now, 3 points behind Utah for 14th. Pittsburgh might have two picks in the top 12.

If it's that high they'll likely keep the pick. We need them to win a couple here.

It will be interesting to see. At this point it's more likely for them to finish in the top 13. Do they risk sending us an unprotected pick in the '26 draft and see their roster implode even further to finish lower in the standings next year? Or do they cut their losses as soon as they can and have their pick for next year to help them improve their roster if their play improves? I could see them going either way.

Imagine if for some reason Pittsburgh kept their pick last year and needed to send this year's 1st rounder to SJ... and it ends up being a top 5 pick. It would put the Penguins in a much, much worse position.

[ahawk9]

I think 6th overall is the best that can happen to them considering how things have been shaking out. Boston and Philly (Bruins especially) are done, and it's hard imagining them winning, say, 3 games the rest of the way. Pens will win at least one, I assume. Hoping Seattle and Buffalo can get at least 3 points each.