The Return of the Playoff Tracker Thread

[Puck-Lurker]

Pens and the playoffs are like the Deathstar trench run... lots of other folk trying to make it down the stretch

[KG]

This site has us at 66.4% chance to make the playoffs. Interesting that a team right with us like the Isles only has a 14.6% chance

https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

[Puck-Lurker]

Mathematically:

Playoffs 49% (at ME3 15%, WC1 11%, WC2 11%)
No playoffs 51%.

Only halfway and we're a coinflip team and the percentages swing violently with little input. For example, Caps have almost the exact same stats.
20-15-6 in 41GP with a 65% no playoffs outlook - if they win one game they have the same wins, losses and OT/SO losses as Pens.

Just gotta keep at it at this pace or better and something will give. 6-2-2 in the last 10 is nothing to sneeze at

[KBone]

At least (I think) the Pens are slowly, gradually trending in the right direction [minus the PP] where some of the other teams seem to be trending downward.

[dark_forces]

At least (I think) the Pens are slowly, gradually trending in the right direction [minus the PP] where some of the other teams seem to be trending downward.

I'm cautiously optimistic, but should Sid or Geno go down for any stretch, we are in real trouble. At least, if Jarry melts down, we have an adequate stand in.

[Puck-Lurker]

At least (I think) the Pens are slowly, gradually trending in the right direction [minus the PP] where some of the other teams seem to be trending downward.

I'm cautiously optimistic, but should Sid or Geno go down for any stretch, we are in real trouble. At least, if Jarry melts down, we have an adequate stand in.

I'm trying my hardest to not notice all the times the other team lasers it off the iron. That way I can sleep at night

[FLPensFan]

As of today, the Penguins are 5 points out of both WC spots.
WC1 spot is Detroit with 53 points and 46 games played.
WC2 spot is Tampa with 53 points and 47 games played.

Penguins sit at 48 points and 43 games played. The Penguins have games in hand on every team above them (3 on Detroit, 4 on Tampa, 2 on the Islanders, 1 on Caps and Devils). These next 3 games before the All-Star break may tell the tale. 3 losses, and things look very grim. Arizona and Florida will be tough games, and Montreal, well, we tend to play down to our competition.

[Coffey Break]

As of today, the Penguins are 5 points out of both WC spots.
WC1 spot is Detroit with 53 points and 46 games played.
WC2 spot is Tampa with 53 points and 47 games played.

Penguins sit at 48 points and 43 games played. The Penguins have games in hand on every team above them (3 on Detroit, 4 on Tampa, 2 on the Islanders, 1 on Caps and Devils). These next 3 games before the All-Star break may tell the tale. 3 losses, and things look very grim. Arizona and Florida will be tough games, and Montreal, well, we tend to play down to our competition.

Yea, these games in hand mean absolutely nothing if you're not consistent. Fully expect them to win tonight and then drop the next 2 games.

[Daniel]

At least (I think) the Pens are slowly, gradually trending in the right direction [minus the PP] where some of the other teams seem to be trending downward.

I'm cautiously optimistic, but should Sid or Geno go down for any stretch, we are in real trouble. At least, if Jarry melts down, we have an adequate stand in.

If Sid or Geno goes down it might force Sullivan to emulate the mid 90s NJ Devils and try to win 2-1 games.

[Dynasty1970]

I think it is time to retire this thread. Or pause it until game 75. I have no interest in getting my hopes up for this team at this point. Now if Sully is fired along with his staff and we get a new coach in here I would welcome this thread being resurrected. But at game 45.....Its a little much.

[KBone]

I disagree. It keeps everyone informed about what's going on in the race for the playoff spots.

I like it getting updated every now and then.

[pronovost19]

As of right now, there is a 52% chance of making the playoffs. Not good.

[FLPensFan]

I think it is time to retire this thread. Or pause it until game 75. I have no interest in getting my hopes up for this team at this point. Now if Sully is fired along with his staff and we get a new coach in here I would welcome this thread being resurrected. But at game 45.....Its a little much.

I think it is important see where the team stands ahead of the trade deadline. In essence, while they moved within a point of a playoff spot at one point, they have fallen right back to 5 points out. As much as people crap on the "4 points out by Thanksgiving" theory, it holds true most times. With the parity in the league, it's hard to make up that many points when all the teams in front of you are good teams.

Tampa won tonight, so they move to 7 points ahead of the Penguins and WC1 spot. Tampa has played 4 more games than Pittsburgh.
Detroit lost tonight, so they remain 5 points ahead of the Penguins and WC2 spot. Detroit has played 3 more games than Pittsburgh.

All of that said, I still have yet to see a solid stretch of hockey this season that gives me any glimmer of hope that this up and down yo-yo is not their real identity. That big 5 game win streak they had back in November came against 4 teams that aren't close to the playoffs in SJ, CBJ, ANA, and BUF. The one OT win in that streak was against the highest quality competitor, the LA Kings.

The maddening inconsistency is exactly who this team is, just like last year.

[Dynasty1970]

Well then…….at least give me a new coach to make interesting.

[pronovost19]

Up to a 55.6% chance in playoffs after last night’s games. Wings, Isles, Caps and Sabres lost. Nobody wants to get into the playoffs.

[offsides]

Up to a 55.6% chance in playoffs after last night’s games. Wings, Isles, Caps and Sabres lost. Nobody wants to get into the playoffs.

As to wanting to get in the playoffs I'm pretty sure a lot of posters here do NOT want to make the playoffs. If we don't make it there is more of a chance for Sully to be benched.

[FLPensFan]

After tonight's games, the Penguins are now 8 points out of WC1 spot, held by Toronto with 56 points. The Penguins have 2 games in hand on Toronto.
The Penguins are now 7 points out of WC2 spot, held by Detroit with 55 points. The Penguins have 4 games in hand on Detroit.
NJ, NYI, and WSH are 3, 3, and 2 points ahead of the Penguins respectively, and the Penguins have 2, 4, and 2 games in hand respectively on those teams.

Toronto has a game left before the ASG break.
Detroit has 2 games left before the ASG break.
Penguins have 2 games left before the ASG break.

Toronto has won 2 games in a row, and Detroit has won 1 game. NJ, NYI, WSH, and PIT have lost 1, 2, 3, and 2 games in a row, respectively.

Tons of trends in the wrong direction for the Penguins and their pipe dream playoff hopes...but hey, their underlying analytics are good.

[Puck-Lurker]

The math says 37%. Like a Junkers-87 doing a nosedive.

[pronovost19]

I have them at 54.9% as of right now. Not good.

[Dynasty1970]

Mike Sullivan.....

[Toke]

Mike Sullivan.....

If KD has the gumption.....maybe this weekend?

[Unbeliever]

Sullivan isn't getting fired. That ship has sailed. He should be but Dubas pretty much doubled down when he went on record and said that he trusts the man behind the bench. He's not going to then fire him a month after that.

While every reasonable person should want a change on coaching. A lot of hair pulling will be saved by just accepting that it's not going to happen.

[Puck-Lurker]

Sullivan isn't getting fired. That ship has sailed. He should be but Dubas pretty much doubled down when he went on record and said that he trusts the man behind the bench. He's not going to then fire him a month after that.

While every reasonable person should want a change on coaching. A lot of hair pulling will be saved by just accepting that it's not going to happen.

I guess it's really different in the US compared to Europe. If the owner or GM of a team says the coach isnt getting fired, they fully support them 100%... They typically get fired within 2 weeks.

[FLPensFan]

Penguins 45 games played, 21-17-7, 49 points, 37 games remaining

Penguins now 7 points behind Toronto for WC1 spot, with 1 game in hand.
Penguins now 6 points behind Detroit for WC2 spot, with 3 games in hand.

While last year Florida capture WC2 spot with 92 points, prior 82 game seasons typically needed 96-100 points to capture WC2 spot.
If the Penguins need 96 points, they have 37 games to gain 47 points. That's probably about 22 wins, plus 3 OT/SO losses to get those 47 points.
That's roughly a 22-12-3 record the rest of the way (including Montreal game).
That's a .594 winning percentage. Their winning percentage right now is .544

Counting tomorrow's game, they'll have 15 games before the trade deadline. They need to win roughly 9 of their next 15 games to stay on track towards 96 points.

Of their next 15 games, 7 of those games are against current playoff teams.
They have only 2 games in that 15 against teams above them in the WC race (Philly and Islanders).

[Unbeliever]

Sullivan isn't getting fired. That ship has sailed. He should be but Dubas pretty much doubled down when he went on record and said that he trusts the man behind the bench. He's not going to then fire him a month after that.

While every reasonable person should want a change on coaching. A lot of hair pulling will be saved by just accepting that it's not going to happen.

I guess it's really different in the US compared to Europe. If the owner or GM of a team says the coach isnt getting fired, they fully support them 100%... They typically get fired within 2 weeks.

That's when you get caught in a question at a conference about firing the coach and you have to say you have full confidence because you can't say "well actually we're working on a replacement". But that's not what happened. He went out of his way on his own presser to go on about how he thinks Sullivan is the guy to do this. To pre-emptively put and end to any coaching change narrative.