The Return of the Playoff Tracker Thread

[KG]

Flyers dropped 5 straight. Nobody in the metro is playing well.

If we would get our heads straight we could easily be in a playoff spot.

I don’t know how you can let the power play be the reason why they potentially miss the playoffs.

[Antonio]

Have we considered that perhaps they really really just enjoy golfing?

[Puck-Lurker]

Flyers dropped 5 straight. Nobody in the metro is playing well.

If we would get our heads straight we could easily be in a playoff spot.

I don’t know how you can let the power play be the reason why they potentially miss the playoffs.

Big "if" there.

I'm torn between there's a snowball's chance in hell we might actually make it and let's sell the house.

Maybe some nice middleground and we remove Sullivan.

[pronovost19]

Only a 3% increase in playoff odds with a win tonight but a 9.5% jump down with a loss. At 53.9% right now. A loss tonight would be devastating to our chances.

[BigMcK]

Flyers dropped 5 straight. Nobody in the metro is playing well.

If we would get our heads straight we could easily be in a playoff spot.

I don’t know how you can let the power play be the reason why they potentially miss the playoffs.

Big "if" there.

I'm torn between there's a snowball's chance in hell we might actually make it and let's sell the house.

Maybe some nice middleground and we remove Sullivan.

I am on middle grounds on making the playoffs. I just don't see any other outcome than a first round defeat, and people using this as a reason to keep the coaching staff.

[Antonio]

Agreed. Been arguing for a couple of years that the best long term thing for this team would be colossal failure rather than close-ish semi failure over and over. Real change will likely only occur if the failure is so bad that there is no way to ignore it or sugar coat it with endless delusion.

[offsides]

Guess I'm just too old but I can not cheer for a loss each game and a colossal failure. I might not get to see a GOOD rebuild take effect or even if it will. I'm hoping more for 10 wins in a row and a WC1 this season.

[Antonio]

I hear that. I know the feeling...it is part of what makes me unhappy with the situation...I don't like wanting them to fail but I think long term it would be better. I think if they had made good moves and changes over the last 3 years or so, they would be in a much better spot right now. It is likely too late now to be able to realistically make the changes needed for a shorter retool as opposed to an almost inevitable long term rebuild now.

[pronovost19]

Up 5.4% to 59.3% chance to make the playoffs after last night. Need to push past the Flyers.

[Badger Bob]

At the break, the Pens have 51 points and they are 7 behind the two current WC teams (Toronto & Detroit). They have 4 game in hand versus Detroit and 1 versus Toronto. They're even closer to 3rd place in the Metro. Philly has 56 points and the Pens have 4 games in hand on them. The Flyers have been crappy of late, losing 5 in a row going into the break. So the Pens, if they can take advantage of the games in hand, can MAYBE make a move. But obviously, that's a big "If" considering the way they've been playing. This team needs a big jolt and I'm not sure that will happen.

[DelPen]

Playing the Jets twice in the next three games will be hard but there’s opportunity to make up ground before the long west coast trip. The trade deadline is soon after that on March 8 so this team should know if they are buyers or sellers when they get back.

[Badger Bob]

They only have 4 games against East Teams in February and 7 against West Teams. It shifts back to 10/6 (East/West) in March and 8/1 in April.

[Pitts]

So, the Athletic over the weekend gave the Pens a 75% of making it to the playoffs: https://theathletic.com/5244650/2024/02 ... lity-east/

Likely bets

Pittsburgh Penguins: 75 percent

The Pittsburgh Penguins have lost more games than they’ve won and are currently outside of a playoff spot. And yet here they are at 75 percent — make it make sense!

For starters, don’t pay as much mind to their point total compared to other playoff hopefuls. Their 46 games played is the fewest in the East, and four fewer than the third-place Flyers. Five points back with four games in hand isn’t a huge hurdle, especially since the reeling Flyers aren’t controlling play to nearly the same degree they were earlier in the season. Between the Flyers and the other teams around them, the competition isn’t that fierce for the Penguins.

There are a few reasons to like Pittsburgh to get in. For starters, the Penguins have been one of the unluckiest teams vying for a playoff spot, with a 7-5-7 record in one-goal games. That sequencing luck helps explain how a team with a plus-12 goal differential is on pace for only 91 points.

At five-on-five, the Penguins are still a beast, earning 54 percent of the goals, a number that lands in the league’s top 10, sandwiched between the Panthers and the Oilers. That’s good company and is usually the barometer of a playoff-caliber team. Pittsburgh’s penalty kill is also in the top 10, as is starting goalie Tristan Jarry for goals saved above expected.

Everything is working well — except the power play, which has been a massive thorn in the team’s side. It’s the main reason the team isn’t in a playoff spot now, especially given the team’s record in one-goal games. Despite being top 10 in chances generated, the Penguins are 29th with only 4.8 goals per 60.

Given the personnel, I would expect that to turn around at some point. Time may not be on Pittsburgh’s side, but given the team’s strengths and weaknesses, it feels hard to believe the Penguins won’t figure it out in time.

[Puck-Lurker]

So, the Athletic over the weekend gave the Pens a 75% of making it to the playoffs: https://theathletic.com/5244650/2024/02 ... lity-east/

Likely bets

Pittsburgh Penguins: 75 percent

I have a lovely bridge to sell to the writer of that article. Several, in fact.

I estimate out chances at half that, or less.

[largegarlic]

So, the Athletic over the weekend gave the Pens a 75% of making it to the playoffs: https://theathletic.com/5244650/2024/02 ... lity-east/

Likely bets

Pittsburgh Penguins: 75 percent

I have a lovely bridge to sell to the writer of that article. Several, in fact.

I estimate out chances at half that, or less.

Yeah, I see two problems with that analysis:

1) There's been this common refrain that the underlying analytics look good for the Pens, and eventually that will translate into more wins. But the underlying analytics looked good last year too, and they still couldn't make the playoffs. I think we should be getting to the point where we say that these underlying analytics aren't as predictive as some people think they are, or at least aren't as predictive when it comes to this team.

2) The Pens' high probability is based on being able to catch the Flyers, which I agree is doable, but as I've mentioned before, we also have to worry about the Devils getting hot. They've even with the Pens on points, and the Pens only have one game in hand on them. They have a better roster overall, I think, and if they get better luck with health and improved goaltending (whether it's a trade or someone like Vanecek returning more to his career norm), they're going to be pushing to overtake the Flyers too. So, the Pens need both the Flyers AND Devils to stay cold.

[FLPensFan]

So, the Athletic over the weekend gave the Pens a 75% of making it to the playoffs: https://theathletic.com/5244650/2024/02 ... lity-east/

Likely bets

Pittsburgh Penguins: 75 percent

I have a lovely bridge to sell to the writer of that article. Several, in fact.

I estimate out chances at half that, or less.

I'm not a statistician, but I would put them more in the 50/50 category at this point.

Reasons for optimism:
1) Statistically, their 5v5 play is good and so has their PK
2) They have 4 games in hand on Philly and only 5 points behind.
3) Their goaltending has been solid and kept them in a lot of games.

Reasons for pessimism:
1) The PP. This article went with the "they have so much talent I MUST BELIEVE they will turn it around." (Somebody hasn't been watching)
2) Their finishing is worst in the league. You can call that "luck" if you want, or you can wonder how many of these 30+ year old players are starting to see some skills erode.
3) They have 3 back to backs before the trade deadline, 7 of 15 games before trade deadline are against playoff teams, and only one of those games is against a Metro team.

The Philly game on February 25th may be the hard deadline. We have 8 games before we play the Flyers, but the Flyers also have 8 games before playing us...meaning we won't make up any of those games before playing them. In one way that's good, but in another way...say we go 4-4 in the 8 games before Philly, and Philly goes 4-4. If we lose against the Flyers, we'll be 7 points behind them...but Dubas may be blinded by the games in hand and still think they have a chance.

Just taking a glance, I think Pittsburgh could lose twice to WPG, lose to FL, and lose to LA...and win against MIN, CHI, NYI, and MTL.
For the Flyers at a glance, they maybe win against SEA, ARZ, CHI, and NJ...but lose against FLA, WPG, NYR, and TOR.

[KG]

We're going to go for it and miss the playoffs by 1 point and then lose Jake for nothing when he leaves as a free agent

Messing around, but it could very well happen lol.

[Pitts]

So, the Athletic over the weekend gave the Pens a 75% of making it to the playoffs: https://theathletic.com/5244650/2024/02 ... lity-east/

Likely bets

Pittsburgh Penguins: 75 percent

I have a lovely bridge to sell to the writer of that article. Several, in fact.

I estimate out chances at half that, or less.

Don't shoot the messenger! Yohe states on his latest article that Vegas odds makers still have the Pens in the playoffs as well.

[KG]

https://www.penguinslatest.com/nhl-team ... -Two-Teams

Passing along for entertainment purposes only

[FLPensFan]

https://www.penguinslatest.com/nhl-team ... -Two-Teams

Passing along for entertainment purposes only

It seems TIOPS has a lot of competition these days...

[KG]

Isles beat Toronto on the road. Here we go. Rest of the season is going to be a grind …

[pronovost19]

Up 6.8% to a 66.7% chance of making playoffs after win over Jets. Projected to attain 95 points.

[Pitts]

Flyers beat Arizona tonight, now 11 points up on the Pens. My, how much difference a week makes... we ain't catching them now I don't think. Pens are relegated to attempting to win a wildcard spot and even that looks less and less likely each passing game.

[FLPensFan]

Flyers beat Arizona tonight, now 11 points up on the Pens. My, how much difference a week makes... we ain't catching them now I don't think. Pens are relegated to attempting to win a wildcard spot and even that looks less and less likely each passing game.

I think it was Pensburgh saying these next 3 games are make or break. Florida has lost only 4 or 5 games out of their last 16. Chicago has only won like 5 out of their last 16. LA has been up and down and recently fired their coach. Penguins really have no excuses to lose to Chicago, and they need to pull out another 2 points somewhere. Failure to get 4 out of 6 points here may signal the end. .500 hockey isn't going to move the needle.

[KBone]

.500 hockey is exactly what this team is, unfortunately.