Penguins Trade Deadline: Buyers and Sellers?

[Michael74]

Rags lose in regulation, that's good news. Good game, Rags were comin.

[FLPensFan]

In all fairness to Rutherford and his draft record, it seems like he used draft picks as assets to throw in on trades rather than as a means to build for the future. Produce today --- to hell about tomorrow.

For sure, but, it's not like he threw away his 1st, 2nd, and 3rd every year. Aside from the last few years, 2017 is the only Penguins draft class to not have a single NHL game played by ANYONE in the class. Zach Lauzon in the 2nd, Clayton Phillips in the 3rd, Jan Drozg and Linus Olund in the 5th, Palojarvi in the 6th, Will Reilly in the 7th. None of them played an NHL game.

And the year before, 2016 wasn't much better. He took Gustavsson in the 2nd, who was traded. He also took Bjorkqvist in the 2nd, and he played 6 whole NHL games. Like Lauzon, 2016 3rd round pick Connor Hall was injured early and never made it pro, going from OHL to Australian leagues to playing 9 games at the ECHL level. Ryan Jones in the 4th, Niclas Almari in the 5th, and Joe Masonius in the 6th....no NHL games.

And in 2018, only 4 picks, but 2 of them were 2nd rounders....Addison and Hallander. 5th rounder Justin Almeida, and 6th rounder Liam Gorman.

That 3 year period killed us. No firsts, but 5 2nd rounds only amounted to Addison, Hallander, Gustavsson, Lauzon and Bjorkqvist. Gustavsson is the only non-miss, and Addison gets a little bit of credit for being used in the Zucker trade. 16 picks resulted in 2 players playing over 140 games (Gustavsson and Addison), one playing 6 games (Bjorkqvist) and one playing 3 games (HallandeR). Abysmal.

How he did as the head of the Whalers / Hurricanes might be interesting to examine (not suggesting anyone spend time doing so) in terms of draft results, but if asked what he thought his top five responsibilities were as GM of the Penguins, I would imagine building a Stanley Cup roster is #1, followed by trading assets to maintain the roster, followed by three other items. Sixth would probably have been trading lesser assets that included the other team to stock the vending machines with soda, and finally the player draft. I give him a pass based on team success. Drafting, maybe not his strong point.

Not as bad, but kind of similar results. He was GM from 1994 to 2014. The draft history I use only shows back to 1997 for Carolina (then Whalers before then). Canes won the Cup in 2006. Here are some notable draft years leading up to the Cup:

--1999, he had a pick in every round but the 5th, and had two 8ths. Dave Tanabe went 16th overall and played 449 games. 2nd round pick played 2 NHL games. 3rd round pick played 1 game, 6th round pick played 2 games. That's not a great draft year.

--2001, missed on his 15th overall pick, no NHL games. 2nd rounder Mike Zigomanis played 197 games, 4th rounder played 10 games. Rest were misses.

--2002, hit on Cam Ward 25th overall. Missed on his 3rd, 5th, and 7th round choices

--2004 he hit on Andrew Ladd 5th overall, with 1001 NHL games. He hit on 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders too, but none of them hit 100 NHL games. One hit 90 and another hit 83 games.

--2005, full compliment of picks (now 7 rounds) plus an extra 4th and an extra 5th. He hit on Jack Johnson 3rd overall. 6th round pick played 9 NHL games. Everything else was a complete miss. Again, that's not very good to have your full compliment of picks plus 2 extras, and only hit on the lottery pick.

--2006, 2nd rounder Jaime McBain played 348 games. No 1st rounder. 3-7th rounds all misses, no NHL games

--2007 may have been his best year. Brandon Sutter in round 1, 770 games. Drayson Bowman round 3, 179 NHL games. 5th round Chris Terry, 152 NHL games. 6th round Brett Bellemore,121 games. He had no 2nd or 5th. He only missed on his 4th round pick.

-2009, hit on Dumoulin in the 2nd round. 6th rounder played 6 games. He missed on his 1st, his 3rd, 5th and his 7th round pick

--He had a few other decent drafts, like 2012 and 2013.

====================================================
Now Ron Francis comes into the picture. Francis only gets 4 drafts before Waddell takes over. Francis has 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.

--Francis had 5 1st round picks in 4 years. 5th, 7th, 12th, 13th, and 21st. Francis got at least 100 NHL games out of all 5 of those picks. Noah Hanifin was the 5th, Hayden Fleury the 7th, Martin Necas the 12th, Jake Bean the 13th, and Julien Gauthier the 21st. Gauthier's 181 NHL games was the lowest played out of those picks.

--Francis had 5 2nd round picks in those 4 years. He got at least 100 NHL games out of 4 of the 5 picks. He missed on 2017 2nd Luke Martin. He hit on Eetu Luostarinen, Janne Kuokkanen, Sebastian Aho (the good one), and Alex Nedeljkovic. Out of those 4, Kuokkanen's 118 NHL games was the lowest.

--Francis had 5 3rd round picks in thsoe 4 years. He hit on 2 of the 5 3rd rounders. He had two 3rd rounders in 2016 and missed on them both, and he missed on 1 of his 2 3rds in 2017. He had one in 2017, Morgan Geekie (over 300 NHL games), and in 2014 he drafted Warren Foegle (over 400 NHL games).

15 prime round picks in 4 years, and Francis hit on 11 of 15. That's INCREDIBLE. That's more than luck, and I doubt Francis completely gutted the scouting department right away.

So...this kind of leads credence to Rutherford was not a great drafter. Francis is a stud. (Francis also got NHL game out of his first 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounder in his first draft with Seattle in 2021).

[BigMcK]

FLPF, do complete itemized tax forms for the public? You might have a few people here that might like to hire you...

I think it would be interesting to see what GM ranks where over the last 10 years as 'draft king'. (Do not attempt this at home unless you have proper data selection filters to process the data).

Proper GM, employes proper scouting team, to source proper players, to play system of proper coach. Any weak link in the chain reflects back to GM.

[KG]

Predators holding out Gustav Nyquist this afternoon for trade related reasons. Wonder if we will start to see any Pens held out for the same reason.

[FLPensFan]

Predators holding out Gustav Nyquist this afternoon for trade related reasons. Wonder if we will start to see any Pens held out for the same reason.

[Ericf]

Predators holding out Gustav Nyquist this afternoon for trade related reasons. Wonder if we will start to see any Pens held out for the same reason.

Beauvillier has about the same number points, more goals, younger, faster but is LW compared to RW…still, what Nyquist fetches should be a similar return.

[Michael74]

Predators holding out Gustav Nyquist this afternoon for trade related reasons. Wonder if we will start to see any Pens held out for the same reason.

They should, every point we earn now is detrimental for the long term.

[KG]

2 trades today. Looks like it's going to be a busy week leading up to the deadline!

[FLPensFan]

Predators holding out Gustav Nyquist this afternoon for trade related reasons. Wonder if we will start to see any Pens held out for the same reason.

They should, every point we earn now is detrimental for the long term.

Not only are they looking to trade Nyquist, but they apparently announced Josi is out week-to-week. That'll help solidify 3rd overall.

[FLPensFan]

2 trades today. Looks like it's going to be a busy week leading up to the deadline!

Rangers are also receiving a 2nd round pick in the deal per Seravalli, the better of Carolina's 2nd or the Rangers own 2nd back.

I'd also say Lindgren and Vesey for de Haan and Parssinen plus a 2nd is very encouraging for us to receive a 2nd round pick for Grzelcyk.

[FLPensFan]

FLPF, do complete itemized tax forms for the public? You might have a few people here that might like to hire you...

I think it would be interesting to see what GM ranks where over the last 10 years as 'draft king'. (Do not attempt this at home unless you have proper data selection filters to process the data).

Proper GM, employes proper scouting team, to source proper players, to play system of proper coach. Any weak link in the chain reflects back to GM.

$50 per form plus a $20 filing fee.

It would be hard to judge multiple GMs over a 10 year period because I'm sure GMs change over that time period. But we could do something very similar. First, if you want to look at a 10 year period, I would say look at 2011 to 2020. The 2021-2024 drafts still don't have a lot of players that have made the NHL yet. For example, in 2020, 79 players out of 208 have played at least 1 NHL game. From 2021-2024 drafts (4 years of drafting), only 98 players have played at least 1 game...out of 870 total picks.

So, let's look at some numbers from 2011 to 2020 drafts, 10 years of drafting. We can identify the best teams and then do some research as to who was the GMs during that period, and if we see something like we did with Rutherford to Francis, where Francis pulled a big part of the weight behind that success.

--From 2011 to 2020, 2069 players were drafted. Of those, 1015 players played at least 1 NHL game. 49.06%
--From 2011 to 2020, the top 5 teams with the most picks were DET(87), CHI(83), TOR(80), CAR(78) and ARZ(77)
--The bottom 5 teams in picks were PIT(55), WSH(57), BOS(59), CBJ(62), and NYI(65). (Vegas comes in at 34, but they don't have a full 10 years of drafting)
--The top 3 teams in draft pick hit rate (where a hit is playing at least 1 NHL game) are CBJ (66.13%), OTT (65.71%) and PHI (60.27%)
--That's pretty impressive for CBJ to be near the bottom in amount of picks, but also hit on the highest success rate. OTT is middle of the pack in # of picks, and PHI is bottom of the top 10.
--The worst 3 teams in terms of single game hit rate are DET (34.5%), MIN (40.9%), and TOR (42.5%).
--Pretty bad for DET and TOR. DET had the most picks over that period and had the least amount of success, based on 1 NHL game or more as success. TOR was 3rd in total picks and wasn't much better.
--PIT comes in at 45.5% success rate, which appears to be the top end of the bottom 3rd. There are 8 teams including the Penguins only separated by 1.5% or less.

OK, so now, let's move the scale a bit, and let's look at which teams drafted the most players to play at least 100 NHL games.
--Top 5 teams with players drafted to play 100 or more NHL games...BUF(26), CAR(25), CBJ(25), LAK(24), ANA(23), TB(23)
--The 5 worst teams with fewest to play 100 or more NHL games....COL(13), VAN(14), NYR(15), MIN(15), NYI(15)
--PIT is pretty close to the bottom at 17 total players to play 100 NHL games or more.
--CBJ is the king of drafting, with a low amount of picks, the highest rate to play at least 1 NHL game, and tied for 2nd highest to play 100 or more games.
--If we look at hit rate percentage, CBJ (40.3%), BUF(35.6%), ANA(35.4%), LAK(33.8%) and WSH(33.3%)
--PIT at 30.9% comes in as 9th best.
--The bottom 5 teams in hit rate % are COL(19.7%), VAN(20.6%), NYR(21.7%), CHI(21.7%), and NYI(23.1%)

So, your top drafters of the last 10 years are Columbus and LA seem to be the dominate top 2.
The bottom end is Detroit and Chicago.

For Columbus, 3 years in the beginning for Scott Howson, the other 7 years were Kekalanen as GM.
For LA, 6 years of Dean Lombardi as GM, the other 4 were Rob Blake.

[FLPensFan]

Nashville got a 2026 2nd for Nyquist BUT retained 50%. So Beauvillier should be able to get a 3rd, and maybe a 2nd if we kick in something else.

[thehockeyguru]

Nashville got a 2026 2nd for Nyquist BUT retained 50%. So Beauvillier should be able to get a 3rd, and maybe a 2nd if we kick in something else.

Wow. Looks like a sellers market

[thehockeyguru]

Wow

The Blackhawks traded defenceman Seth Jones to the Florida Panthers for goalie Spencer Knight and a Panthers first-round pick, Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported on Saturday.

The Blackhawks will retain approximately 26 per cent of Jones' contract, per Friedman.

Jones, 30, is in the third year of an eight-year contract worth $9.5 million annually. He also holds a no-move clause, meaning he had to OK the trade to Florida.

[KG]

Wow

The Blackhawks traded defenceman Seth Jones to the Florida Panthers for goalie Spencer Knight and a Panthers first-round pick, Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported on Saturday.

The Blackhawks will retain approximately 26 per cent of Jones' contract, per Friedman.

Jones, 30, is in the third year of an eight-year contract worth $9.5 million annually. He also holds a no-move clause, meaning he had to OK the trade to Florida.

If KD is willing to retain we should be able
To get a decent haul back for EK. He only has 2 years left on his deal.

Dallas and Ottawa make sense.

[thehockeyguru]

Wow

The Blackhawks traded defenceman Seth Jones to the Florida Panthers for goalie Spencer Knight and a Panthers first-round pick, Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported on Saturday.

The Blackhawks will retain approximately 26 per cent of Jones' contract, per Friedman.

Jones, 30, is in the third year of an eight-year contract worth $9.5 million annually. He also holds a no-move clause, meaning he had to OK the trade to Florida.

If KD is willing to retain we should be able
To get a decent haul back for EK. He only has 2 years left on his deal.

Dallas and Ottawa make sense.

I saw a couple articles that FLA was interested in Karlsson. If Knight was the main piece they wanted to part with it doesn't make us a great trade partner with all our goaltending depth.

[100565]

I think Florida just greatly improved (this year). Hopefully, it puts pressure on other contenders to make trades.

I am more optimistic a couple of big trades for Pens this week.

[Wyopen]

Wow

The Blackhawks traded defenceman Seth Jones to the Florida Panthers for goalie Spencer Knight and a Panthers first-round pick, Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported on Saturday.

The Blackhawks will retain approximately 26 per cent of Jones' contract, per Friedman.

Jones, 30, is in the third year of an eight-year contract worth $9.5 million annually. He also holds a no-move clause, meaning he had to OK the trade to Florida.

If KD is willing to retain we should be able
To get a decent haul back for EK. He only has 2 years left on his deal.

Dallas and Ottawa make sense.

I saw a couple articles that FLA was interested in Karlsson. If Knight was the main piece they wanted to part with it doesn't make us a great trade partner with all our goaltending depth.

We used to have goaltending depth. Now it’s only Blomqvist and Murashov.

[Wyopen]

WBS Pens up 3-0, then Jarry gives up five. Pens lose to Hershey in OT 5-4.

[FLPensFan]

I think Florida just greatly improved (this year). Hopefully, it puts pressure on other contenders to make trades.

I am more optimistic a couple of big trades for Pens this week.

I'm not sold. They have no backup goalie, and can only afford a 21 man roster. Their farm system is as barren as the Penguins was 3-4 years ago. They really have nothing else left to move out to clear cap space...anything they move out now creates another hole for them to fill.

Florida really needed to find a cheaper AAV d-man, or needed Chicago to retain closer to 4M. I'll wait to see what else Zito does, but I think this is going to hurt them in the long run.

[Michael74]

WBS Pens up 3-0, then Jarry gives up five. Pens lose to Hershey in OT 5-4.

Jarry chokes, that's all he does.

Happy however with Koivunen's game as well as McGroarty's.

[Pens4Life]

I think Florida just greatly improved (this year). Hopefully, it puts pressure on other contenders to make trades.

I am more optimistic a couple of big trades for Pens this week.

I'm not sold. They have no backup goalie, and can only afford a 21 man roster. Their farm system is as barren as the Penguins was 3-4 years ago. They really have nothing else left to move out to clear cap space...anything they move out now creates another hole for them to fill.

Florida really needed to find a cheaper AAV d-man, or needed Chicago to retain closer to 4M. I'll wait to see what else Zito does, but I think this is going to hurt them in the long run.

I dont think they care much about long run at the moment. Their focus is this and next year probably, try to get one or two more SC!

They can get back some picks and prospects when team will be in sell mode, also they have all picks for 2027, 2026 just 2nd rounder tho, no 1st or 3rd.

For backup goalie just call up experianced Driedger or younger Cooper Black from Charlotte. But you are right on salary cap, they are left with 500k only!

[KG]

Definitely a sellers market. Hopefully KD gets aggressive and isn’t afraid to sell high on Rakell.

Rakell, EK, Gryz, Beau, Acciari, Lizotte, Hayes, Heinen, Desharnais, Ned, Glass all should be available. Basically everyone except Sid and Geno should be available.

Hoping for several trades and a couple of sizable ones to help speed up the retool.

[thehockeyguru]

Definitely a sellers market. Hopefully KD gets aggressive and isn’t afraid to sell high on Rakell.

Rakell, EK, Gryz, Beau, Acciari, Lizotte, Hayes, Heinen, Desharnais, Ned, Glass all should be available. Basically everyone except Sid and Geno should be available.

Hoping for several trades and a couple of sizable ones to help speed up the retool.

Agree, definitely should be looking to move those names you mentioned.

Is today going to be Vladislav Kolyachonok Day?

[Victor]

I think Florida just greatly improved (this year). Hopefully, it puts pressure on other contenders to make trades.

I am more optimistic a couple of big trades for Pens this week.

I'm not sold. They have no backup goalie, and can only afford a 21 man roster. Their farm system is as barren as the Penguins was 3-4 years ago. They really have nothing else left to move out to clear cap space...anything they move out now creates another hole for them to fill.

Florida really needed to find a cheaper AAV d-man, or needed Chicago to retain closer to 4M. I'll wait to see what else Zito does, but I think this is going to hurt them in the long run.

Florida only plays tomorrow, but I wonder what would happen in a scenario like this where they have no cap room to dress a backup goalie. Would they be allowed to use an EBUG for a game?