FLPensFan Offseason Mock Rosters

[Wyopen]

On Dan Kingerski’s podcast he stated that he was not impressed with Ville Koivunen’s play. Stated he was not fast, not a great skater, and couldn’t find open ice. Any truth to this? Said he should be better because he played 15 games in the AHL last year.

[FLPensFan]

On Dan Kingerski’s podcast he stated that he was not impressed with Ville Koivunen’s play. Stated he was not fast, not a great skater, and couldn’t find open ice. Any truth to this? Said he should be better because he played 15 games in the AHL last year.

I am not an expert in prospect evaluation by any means, but I don't think Kingerski knows a damn thing about prospects. He likes to think he does. He has taken the stance that, when fans scream for prospect X to get a recall, the Penguins already know what they have because they've seen, evaluate, and develop these players 24/7. If they say they can't make the NHL, that's it...according to Kingerski. I would not listen to Kingerski when it comes to prospect evaluations.

Koivunen was 6th in points, 7th in goals in Liiga this year. He had the 12th best U21 production ever in Liiga. Skating is an issue. That's his biggest weakness right now. Other than that, everything I have seen says he is a very smart player, wants the puck on his stick, and has middle 6 potential. One scouting report compared him to Joe Pavelski...if he can put it all together, that's who his style and output may mimic. From what I have seen about his skating, I don't think that it is that he is slow, but more that he may have some abnormal mechanics that hold him back.

This is one of the last scouting reports during his draft year that I found:

April 2021 – Ville Koivunen has gained notoriety as the season went on. He played with Samu Tuomaala, the top Finnish forward on most boards, in Kärpät and he was the one making the motor run on most nights for that line. He elevates whoever he is playing with and has helped Tuomaala stay in the first-round on most boards. He may not have the most impressive tools on the surface but when you dig into his game, he has the skating and mobility to be agile on the wing and the dual-threat ability to make him a superb playmaker while still remaining a shooting threat. He gets himself into a position to succeed by working through traffic, showing a bit of a slippery nature to his game off the puck. He doesn’t always use his speed to their full extent but has the ability to pull a bit more speed out of his back pocket when needed. He is harder to knock off the puck than most players his size, showing a solid base and strength that allows him to navigate pressure with or without the puck. As a playmaker, Koivunen finds the open man regularly and puts the perfect amount of touch on his passes. His ability to toss sauce all over the offensive zone is impressive and he has a knack for dropping it right onto a teammate’s stick. He is a very good powerplay threat. He can play any position on the powerplay from the net-front to the half-wall, being an effective playmaker from any position, even on his off-wing. Koivunen may not be in many first-rounds come draft day but he is one of the players drafted on day two that could have people asking why he wasn’t drafted higher when we look back on 2021 in a decade.

[FLPensFan]

Will any of this matter if Sully remains coach?

Exactly. Honestly, as I have said before, for the first time really in 37 years or so of watching this team religiously, my give a **** meter is about 0 until he is gone. After almost a decade, I just don't care anymore until he is gone because I already know 100% what is going to happen and until they change the coach, this organization is telling me, as a fan, expect the same. We have changed the roster over what, 6 times already? What difference does another mock roster make? THIS one will be the magic sauce? Not as long as our head chef has hepatitis.

I get it with the give a **** meter. I've watched the least amount of hockey this year than in any year prior. Most games it was on in the background with me doing other things, paying attention 5 minutes here or there most nights.

At the same time, we're still planning on fielding a team whether Sullivan is here or not. Dubas earned some points by clearing out some of the muck that Hextall brought in. He made a few good moves in Eller and Nedeljkovic, plus getting Bunting. He made a few bad moves like Graves contract and fixing the defensive side of the bottom 6 while still icing an offensively more anemic bottom 6 than the year prior.

I want to see what Dubas can do this summer. Move out Smith for a pick/prospect, or a player who can definitely help. Add 1 or 2 more pieces up front to strengthen the depth and improve bottom 6 scoring. Ride out the defense until we see which Graves and EK65 show up this year.

If we bring in a couple of Mark Jankowski types as filler instead, Dubas will have lost my faith.

[Pens4Life]

Yeah,but I think that will Sullivan want.. more vets to play bottom lines again lol

[Wyopen]

On Dan Kingerski’s podcast he stated that he was not impressed with Ville Koivunen’s play. Stated he was not fast, not a great skater, and couldn’t find open ice. Any truth to this? Said he should be better because he played 15 games in the AHL last year.

I am not an expert in prospect evaluation by any means, but I don't think Kingerski knows a damn thing about prospects. He likes to think he does. He has taken the stance that, when fans scream for prospect X to get a recall, the Penguins already know what they have because they've seen, evaluate, and develop these players 24/7. If they say they can't make the NHL, that's it...according to Kingerski. I would not listen to Kingerski when it comes to prospect evaluations.

Koivunen was 6th in points, 7th in goals in Liiga this year. He had the 12th best U21 production ever in Liiga. Skating is an issue. That's his biggest weakness right now. Other than that, everything I have seen says he is a very smart player, wants the puck on his stick, and has middle 6 potential. One scouting report compared him to Joe Pavelski...if he can put it all together, that's who his style and output may mimic. From what I have seen about his skating, I don't think that it is that he is slow, but more that he may have some abnormal mechanics that hold him back.

This is one of the last scouting reports during his draft year that I found:

April 2021 – Ville Koivunen has gained notoriety as the season went on. He played with Samu Tuomaala, the top Finnish forward on most boards, in Kärpät and he was the one making the motor run on most nights for that line. He elevates whoever he is playing with and has helped Tuomaala stay in the first-round on most boards. He may not have the most impressive tools on the surface but when you dig into his game, he has the skating and mobility to be agile on the wing and the dual-threat ability to make him a superb playmaker while still remaining a shooting threat. He gets himself into a position to succeed by working through traffic, showing a bit of a slippery nature to his game off the puck. He doesn’t always use his speed to their full extent but has the ability to pull a bit more speed out of his back pocket when needed. He is harder to knock off the puck than most players his size, showing a solid base and strength that allows him to navigate pressure with or without the puck. As a playmaker, Koivunen finds the open man regularly and puts the perfect amount of touch on his passes. His ability to toss sauce all over the offensive zone is impressive and he has a knack for dropping it right onto a teammate’s stick. He is a very good powerplay threat. He can play any position on the powerplay from the net-front to the half-wall, being an effective playmaker from any position, even on his off-wing. Koivunen may not be in many first-rounds come draft day but he is one of the players drafted on day two that could have people asking why he wasn’t drafted higher when we look back on 2021 in a decade.

Wow what a 180! Thanks for the response and “evaluation”. FLPF I trust your judgement, always a deep review.

[Ohio_Pens_fan]

From Dave Molinari:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nhl/th ... r-BB1lR09g

[FLPensFan]

Here's my 3rd mock roster for this Penguins offseason. The big change here is abandoning the Pinto train in favor of trading for Sissons, and Yager making the club. There's a lot of noise gaining traction about Yager getting a fair shot in camp. The AHL team losing in round 1 didn't help any of our prospects there, but Yager has been living up to Dubas's advice to the young prospects to "seize the moment, show they have grown, do their best."

The biggest thing with this roster...I don't think they'll have a taker for Acciari, which could leave them having to risk waiving or trading one of Poulin or Puustinen. That's the price for making upgrades elsewhere and not being able establish yourself at the NHL level before waiver exemption expires. My gut tells me Sullivan still isn't a fan of Poulin, that his skating still isn't strong enough, and he would be odd man out. But, we'll see.

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/5192646

[BigMcK]

Is it too early to see what quality the 44th overall, 2nd rounder, pick brings in the draft? Is this upcoming draft deep enough to use for a player, or does it serve more valuable as a trade chip?

[FLPensFan]

Is it too early to see what quality the 44th overall, 2nd rounder, pick brings in the draft? Is this upcoming draft deep enough to use for a player, or does it serve more valuable as a trade chip?

This is a top-heavy draft. The Athletic just did another writeup this week on it's draft rankings. They ranked 129 players in 9 different tiers.

Tier 1 is elite player, and Macklin Celebrini is the only player in this tier.
Tier 2 is NHL All-Star and on the bubble of elite, and the only player in this tier is d-man Artyom Levshunov.
Tier 3 is NHL All-Star, and there are 3 players in this tier.
Tier 4 is bubble All-Star and top of the lineup player. There are 3 players in this tier.
Tier 5 is top of the lineup player. There are 3 players in this tier.
(we are through 5 tiers and only 11 players)
Tier 6 is bubble top lineup and middle 6 player. There are 7 players ranked here.
Tier 7 is straight middle 6 projection. There are 21 players in this group.
(39 players total in the first 7 tiers)
Tier 8 is "projected to play NHL games" there are roughly 34 players in this tier.
Tier 9 is "may play NHL games" and there are 56 players in this group.

(at the end after looking at these players, I will put some information about the early peeks into the 2025 NHL draft)

So, while players rise and fall, the Penguins picks 44 and 46 are likely to be in that Tier 8 level player, should play in the NHL at some point. For each of the players ranked, they graded them in 4 categories: Skating, Puck Skills, Hockey Sense, and Compete. Here's a look at players 40-50, ones that may be in our range (with kind of the good and bad of them):

40, Lucas Pettersson, Center, 5'11 - Everything but compete is rated Average, Compete is rated High-End. Pettersson is a skilled forward with good speed who can make a lot of difficult plays. Pettersson's motor is excellent too. He wins a lot of battles, and despite his size, he excels in the tough areas of the offensive zone. He's not the most dynamic player you'll ever see, but the sum of the parts looks like a potential bottom-six forward or fourth-line center in the NHL.

41, Sam O'Reilly, RW, 6'1" - Everything but compete is rated Average, Compete is rated Above-Average. He's a two-way center. He competes hard and has physicality. I've seen quicker skaters, but he can escape pressure and has good enough quickness for the NHL level. O'Reilly has quality skill and vision and can create chances. He has a decent shot but I like him more when he's making plays. He has the potential to be a bottom-six center in the league.

42, Henry Mews, D, 6 foot - Hockey Sense Above Average, other 3 skills average. He's very intelligent with the puck. Mews shows good poise and creativity making plays on top of a strong point shot. He skates well and can both skate and pass pucks out of trouble. He got his points this year, but the issues for him this season were defensive. He struggled in his own end, getting pushed around physically. He was a decent defender coming up so I wonder if he can bounce back in that regard. He's skilled enough to get NHL games but will need to round out his play, especially as an average-sized player. (for reference, I've seen another place that has Mews going as high as 25th overall)

43, Luca Marrelli, D, 6'1" - 5 skills rated...Skating and Compete Average, Puck Skills Below Average, Hockey Sense and Shot Above Average. He's a strong skating defenseman who can close on pucks defensively well and is able to attack with speed. Offensively he won't be a dominant pro, but he has skill and creative playmaking in his game. Marrelli can activate off the blue line, create off the rush, has a good point shot and shows instincts to hit seams as well. He competes fine, but isn't overly physical and is average sized. He lacks a clear defined role in the NHL, even if he has a lot of positives. He has a real chance to play games.

44, Ben Danford, D, 6'1" - Hockey Sense and Compete Above Average, Skating Average, Puck Skills Below Average. Danford skates quite well. He's able to escape pressure with the puck and skate pucks up ice like a pro. Defensively he closes on pucks quickly, and competes well enough to win a lot of close races. Offensively he's not dynamic, but he's quite smart with the puck. He makes a lot difficult passes, often while skating with pace. I don't think he stands out at either end of the ice in the NHL, but he could be a useful defenseman for an organization.

45, Harrison Brunicke, D, 6'2" - Skating and Puck Skills Average, Hockey Sense Below Average, Compete Above Average. He's 6-foot-3, skates well and has a strong offensive skill level. On his best shift with the way he can rush up ice and activate off the blue line, he looks like a legit NHL prospect. Brunicke can make some tough plays, but he forces a lot of his decisions, doesn't always see the ice well and is running around in his own end. He probably isn't a big points type as a pro, but with his feet, length and a strong compete level if he's just OK with the puck he can be a third-pair defenseman.

46, Jesse Pulkkinen, D, 6'5" - Skating and Hockey Sense Below Average. Puck Skills Average. Compete Above Average. He scored big numbers at the junior level, and then got brought up to Liiga. He also made Finland's world junior team as a top-four defenseman. Pulkkinen is very toolsy. He's a 6-foot-6 defender who skates quite well for his size. His straight-line speed is quite strong, although his first step or two aren't the quickest. Pulkkinen defends well due to his length and that he's quite physical. Offensively, he doesn't stand out as much, but he has hands and can make checkers miss. He fights the puck at times when he needs to make quick decisions, though. If his first pass and decisions gets more consistent he could be a legit longtime NHL defender, but for now, I see a third-pair type.

47, Timur Kol, D, 6'3" - Skating, Hockey Sense, Compete Average. Puck Skills Below Average. Shot Above Average. He is a talented, offensively tilted defenseman. He's a smart puck-mover who can make a strong first pass and create from the offensive blue line. His skating stride isn't technically great, drawing ire from scouts due to how much he inside-outs his feet. He is a powerful skater, though, who can escape pressure and activate off the point. He has a good shot and enough skill to get points versus men. His defensive play isn't as strong. He lacks physicality and his defensive coverage needs some work. The hope is with his frame and mobility he can make enough stops and retrievals as a pro to go with his skill. He could be a third-pair defenseman.

48, Maxim Masse, RW, 6'1". Skating is Poor, Compete is Below Average, Hockey Sense Average, Puck Skills Above Average, Shot is High End. He has a ton of offensive skill and IQ and good size as well. Masse is also a dangerous goal scorer who can wire bullets from the faceoff dot with his one timer. There's no doubt about what he can do with the puck inside the offensive zone, but getting the puck into the zone will be a major challenge for him in the NHL due to his skating. He's a technically flawed skater and that will be his major challenge in having an NHL career on top of giving inconsistent efforts without the puck. His offensive gifts and size should get him games but he will need to prove to NHL coaches he can be trusted for a regular shift.

49, Ryder Ritchie, RW, 6' - Puck Skills Above Average, Compete, Skating, Hockey Sense Average. He is an average-sized winger, but he brings a ton of skill to the table. He is a very elusive forward due to his skating and hands and can make a lot of tough plays with pace. His effort is fine but his consistency could be better. I also don't think he's a dynamic playmaking winger but instead a very good one. He has NHL talent, but I don't see a clear role for him and I think he could frustrate coaches as well.

50, Emil Hemming, RW, 6'1" - Skating, Puck Skills, Hockey Sense Average. Compete Below Average, Shot High End. He's a highly skilled winger who can skate well. He is dangerous in transition, creates a lot of controlled entries and can break open shifts with his skill. Hemming can make plays and see openings develop, but his shot is his best weapon. He can rip pucks from range and will be a legit goal-scoring threat versus top goalies. Like a lot of goal scorers, Hemming can lean on his shot too much and stays on the outside. The lack of interior offense and inconsistent effort is the only thing keeping me from tabbing him as a potential middle-six forward.

Overall...I just don't really see anything in this range (and granted, this is only ONE source of rankings) that excites me or says "we absolutely MUST keep these 2nd round picks" If we are able to use them as part of a trade, or even package them both to move up maybe 20th overall, I would highly consider it.

For reference, Athletic has done a few early looks at next year's draft. 30 or less players, but, while James Hagens is the only Tier 1 player similar to this year, he lists 12 players as Tier 2 (compared to 1 this year), and he lists 15 players as Tier 3 (compared to only 3 this year). So that already has the makings of a much deeper draft. Also important to note the 2024 rankings above are from Corey Pronman, and the 2025 early rankings are from Scott Wheeler, 2 different people doing the ratings.

[BigMcK]

Is it too early to see what quality the 44th overall, 2nd rounder, pick brings in the draft? Is this upcoming draft deep enough to use for a player, or does it serve more valuable as a trade chip?

This is a top-heavy draft. The Athletic just did another writeup this week on it's draft rankings. They ranked 129 players in 9 different tiers.

Tier 1 is elite player, and Macklin Celebrini is the only player in this tier.
Tier 2 is NHL All-Star and on the bubble of elite, and the only player in this tier is d-man Artyom Levshunov.
Tier 3 is NHL All-Star, and there are 3 players in this tier.
Tier 4 is bubble All-Star and top of the lineup player. There are 3 players in this tier.
Tier 5 is top of the lineup player. There are 3 players in this tier.
(we are through 5 tiers and only 11 players)
Tier 6 is bubble top lineup and middle 6 player. There are 7 players ranked here.
Tier 7 is straight middle 6 projection. There are 21 players in this group.
(39 players total in the first 7 tiers)
Tier 8 is "projected to play NHL games" there are roughly 34 players in this tier.
Tier 9 is "may play NHL games" and there are 56 players in this group.

(at the end after looking at these players, I will put some information about the early peeks into the 2025 NHL draft)

So, while players rise and fall, the Penguins picks 44 and 46 are likely to be in that Tier 8 level player, should play in the NHL at some point. For each of the players ranked, they graded them in 4 categories: Skating, Puck Skills, Hockey Sense, and Compete. Here's a look at players 40-50, ones that may be in our range (with kind of the good and bad of them):

40, Lucas Pettersson, Center, 5'11 - Everything but compete is rated Average, Compete is rated High-End. Pettersson is a skilled forward with good speed who can make a lot of difficult plays. Pettersson's motor is excellent too. He wins a lot of battles, and despite his size, he excels in the tough areas of the offensive zone. He's not the most dynamic player you'll ever see, but the sum of the parts looks like a potential bottom-six forward or fourth-line center in the NHL.

41, Sam O'Reilly, RW, 6'1" - Everything but compete is rated Average, Compete is rated Above-Average. He's a two-way center. He competes hard and has physicality. I've seen quicker skaters, but he can escape pressure and has good enough quickness for the NHL level. O'Reilly has quality skill and vision and can create chances. He has a decent shot but I like him more when he's making plays. He has the potential to be a bottom-six center in the league.

42, Henry Mews, D, 6 foot - Hockey Sense Above Average, other 3 skills average. He's very intelligent with the puck. Mews shows good poise and creativity making plays on top of a strong point shot. He skates well and can both skate and pass pucks out of trouble. He got his points this year, but the issues for him this season were defensive. He struggled in his own end, getting pushed around physically. He was a decent defender coming up so I wonder if he can bounce back in that regard. He's skilled enough to get NHL games but will need to round out his play, especially as an average-sized player. (for reference, I've seen another place that has Mews going as high as 25th overall)

43, Luca Marrelli, D, 6'1" - 5 skills rated...Skating and Compete Average, Puck Skills Below Average, Hockey Sense and Shot Above Average. He's a strong skating defenseman who can close on pucks defensively well and is able to attack with speed. Offensively he won't be a dominant pro, but he has skill and creative playmaking in his game. Marrelli can activate off the blue line, create off the rush, has a good point shot and shows instincts to hit seams as well. He competes fine, but isn't overly physical and is average sized. He lacks a clear defined role in the NHL, even if he has a lot of positives. He has a real chance to play games.

44, Ben Danford, D, 6'1" - Hockey Sense and Compete Above Average, Skating Average, Puck Skills Below Average. Danford skates quite well. He's able to escape pressure with the puck and skate pucks up ice like a pro. Defensively he closes on pucks quickly, and competes well enough to win a lot of close races. Offensively he's not dynamic, but he's quite smart with the puck. He makes a lot difficult passes, often while skating with pace. I don't think he stands out at either end of the ice in the NHL, but he could be a useful defenseman for an organization.

45, Harrison Brunicke, D, 6'2" - Skating and Puck Skills Average, Hockey Sense Below Average, Compete Above Average. He's 6-foot-3, skates well and has a strong offensive skill level. On his best shift with the way he can rush up ice and activate off the blue line, he looks like a legit NHL prospect. Brunicke can make some tough plays, but he forces a lot of his decisions, doesn't always see the ice well and is running around in his own end. He probably isn't a big points type as a pro, but with his feet, length and a strong compete level if he's just OK with the puck he can be a third-pair defenseman.

46, Jesse Pulkkinen, D, 6'5" - Skating and Hockey Sense Below Average. Puck Skills Average. Compete Above Average. He scored big numbers at the junior level, and then got brought up to Liiga. He also made Finland's world junior team as a top-four defenseman. Pulkkinen is very toolsy. He's a 6-foot-6 defender who skates quite well for his size. His straight-line speed is quite strong, although his first step or two aren't the quickest. Pulkkinen defends well due to his length and that he's quite physical. Offensively, he doesn't stand out as much, but he has hands and can make checkers miss. He fights the puck at times when he needs to make quick decisions, though. If his first pass and decisions gets more consistent he could be a legit longtime NHL defender, but for now, I see a third-pair type.

47, Timur Kol, D, 6'3" - Skating, Hockey Sense, Compete Average. Puck Skills Below Average. Shot Above Average. He is a talented, offensively tilted defenseman. He's a smart puck-mover who can make a strong first pass and create from the offensive blue line. His skating stride isn't technically great, drawing ire from scouts due to how much he inside-outs his feet. He is a powerful skater, though, who can escape pressure and activate off the point. He has a good shot and enough skill to get points versus men. His defensive play isn't as strong. He lacks physicality and his defensive coverage needs some work. The hope is with his frame and mobility he can make enough stops and retrievals as a pro to go with his skill. He could be a third-pair defenseman.

48, Maxim Masse, RW, 6'1". Skating is Poor, Compete is Below Average, Hockey Sense Average, Puck Skills Above Average, Shot is High End. He has a ton of offensive skill and IQ and good size as well. Masse is also a dangerous goal scorer who can wire bullets from the faceoff dot with his one timer. There's no doubt about what he can do with the puck inside the offensive zone, but getting the puck into the zone will be a major challenge for him in the NHL due to his skating. He's a technically flawed skater and that will be his major challenge in having an NHL career on top of giving inconsistent efforts without the puck. His offensive gifts and size should get him games but he will need to prove to NHL coaches he can be trusted for a regular shift.

49, Ryder Ritchie, RW, 6' - Puck Skills Above Average, Compete, Skating, Hockey Sense Average. He is an average-sized winger, but he brings a ton of skill to the table. He is a very elusive forward due to his skating and hands and can make a lot of tough plays with pace. His effort is fine but his consistency could be better. I also don't think he's a dynamic playmaking winger but instead a very good one. He has NHL talent, but I don't see a clear role for him and I think he could frustrate coaches as well.

50, Emil Hemming, RW, 6'1" - Skating, Puck Skills, Hockey Sense Average. Compete Below Average, Shot High End. He's a highly skilled winger who can skate well. He is dangerous in transition, creates a lot of controlled entries and can break open shifts with his skill. Hemming can make plays and see openings develop, but his shot is his best weapon. He can rip pucks from range and will be a legit goal-scoring threat versus top goalies. Like a lot of goal scorers, Hemming can lean on his shot too much and stays on the outside. The lack of interior offense and inconsistent effort is the only thing keeping me from tabbing him as a potential middle-six forward.

Overall...I just don't really see anything in this range (and granted, this is only ONE source of rankings) that excites me or says "we absolutely MUST keep these 2nd round picks" If we are able to use them as part of a trade, or even package them both to move up maybe 20th overall, I would highly consider it.

For reference, Athletic has done a few early looks at next year's draft. 30 or less players, but, while James Hagens is the only Tier 1 player similar to this year, he lists 12 players as Tier 2 (compared to 1 this year), and he lists 15 players as Tier 3 (compared to only 3 this year). So that already has the makings of a much deeper draft. Also important to note the 2024 rankings above are from Corey Pronman, and the 2025 early rankings are from Scott Wheeler, 2 different people doing the ratings.

FLPF, that's a lot of great information. Thanks for taking the time to provide. Ever thought of moving to Pittsburgh and becoming a member of the local reporting group??

I guess the value is more slanted toward using the pick as a sweetener, or combined it with the other 2nd round pick, and move up. Looking at the players who are projected in the draft, no one really of worth would be available for the pick. Just thinking out loud, maybe combined them and trade for a potential higher first round pick next year in a deeper pool...

That late season winning spurt did more damage than good by taking the first round pick off of the table it seems.

[FLPensFan]

Is it too early to see what quality the 44th overall, 2nd rounder, pick brings in the draft? Is this upcoming draft deep enough to use for a player, or does it serve more valuable as a trade chip?

Spoiler:

This is a top-heavy draft. The Athletic just did another writeup this week on it's draft rankings. They ranked 129 players in 9 different tiers.

Tier 1 is elite player, and Macklin Celebrini is the only player in this tier.
Tier 2 is NHL All-Star and on the bubble of elite, and the only player in this tier is d-man Artyom Levshunov.
Tier 3 is NHL All-Star, and there are 3 players in this tier.
Tier 4 is bubble All-Star and top of the lineup player. There are 3 players in this tier.
Tier 5 is top of the lineup player. There are 3 players in this tier.
(we are through 5 tiers and only 11 players)
Tier 6 is bubble top lineup and middle 6 player. There are 7 players ranked here.
Tier 7 is straight middle 6 projection. There are 21 players in this group.
(39 players total in the first 7 tiers)
Tier 8 is "projected to play NHL games" there are roughly 34 players in this tier.
Tier 9 is "may play NHL games" and there are 56 players in this group.

(at the end after looking at these players, I will put some information about the early peeks into the 2025 NHL draft)

So, while players rise and fall, the Penguins picks 44 and 46 are likely to be in that Tier 8 level player, should play in the NHL at some point. For each of the players ranked, they graded them in 4 categories: Skating, Puck Skills, Hockey Sense, and Compete. Here's a look at players 40-50, ones that may be in our range (with kind of the good and bad of them):

40, Lucas Pettersson, Center, 5'11 - Everything but compete is rated Average, Compete is rated High-End. Pettersson is a skilled forward with good speed who can make a lot of difficult plays. Pettersson's motor is excellent too. He wins a lot of battles, and despite his size, he excels in the tough areas of the offensive zone. He's not the most dynamic player you'll ever see, but the sum of the parts looks like a potential bottom-six forward or fourth-line center in the NHL.

41, Sam O'Reilly, RW, 6'1" - Everything but compete is rated Average, Compete is rated Above-Average. He's a two-way center. He competes hard and has physicality. I've seen quicker skaters, but he can escape pressure and has good enough quickness for the NHL level. O'Reilly has quality skill and vision and can create chances. He has a decent shot but I like him more when he's making plays. He has the potential to be a bottom-six center in the league.

42, Henry Mews, D, 6 foot - Hockey Sense Above Average, other 3 skills average. He's very intelligent with the puck. Mews shows good poise and creativity making plays on top of a strong point shot. He skates well and can both skate and pass pucks out of trouble. He got his points this year, but the issues for him this season were defensive. He struggled in his own end, getting pushed around physically. He was a decent defender coming up so I wonder if he can bounce back in that regard. He's skilled enough to get NHL games but will need to round out his play, especially as an average-sized player. (for reference, I've seen another place that has Mews going as high as 25th overall)

43, Luca Marrelli, D, 6'1" - 5 skills rated...Skating and Compete Average, Puck Skills Below Average, Hockey Sense and Shot Above Average. He's a strong skating defenseman who can close on pucks defensively well and is able to attack with speed. Offensively he won't be a dominant pro, but he has skill and creative playmaking in his game. Marrelli can activate off the blue line, create off the rush, has a good point shot and shows instincts to hit seams as well. He competes fine, but isn't overly physical and is average sized. He lacks a clear defined role in the NHL, even if he has a lot of positives. He has a real chance to play games.

44, Ben Danford, D, 6'1" - Hockey Sense and Compete Above Average, Skating Average, Puck Skills Below Average. Danford skates quite well. He's able to escape pressure with the puck and skate pucks up ice like a pro. Defensively he closes on pucks quickly, and competes well enough to win a lot of close races. Offensively he's not dynamic, but he's quite smart with the puck. He makes a lot difficult passes, often while skating with pace. I don't think he stands out at either end of the ice in the NHL, but he could be a useful defenseman for an organization.

45, Harrison Brunicke, D, 6'2" - Skating and Puck Skills Average, Hockey Sense Below Average, Compete Above Average. He's 6-foot-3, skates well and has a strong offensive skill level. On his best shift with the way he can rush up ice and activate off the blue line, he looks like a legit NHL prospect. Brunicke can make some tough plays, but he forces a lot of his decisions, doesn't always see the ice well and is running around in his own end. He probably isn't a big points type as a pro, but with his feet, length and a strong compete level if he's just OK with the puck he can be a third-pair defenseman.

46, Jesse Pulkkinen, D, 6'5" - Skating and Hockey Sense Below Average. Puck Skills Average. Compete Above Average. He scored big numbers at the junior level, and then got brought up to Liiga. He also made Finland's world junior team as a top-four defenseman. Pulkkinen is very toolsy. He's a 6-foot-6 defender who skates quite well for his size. His straight-line speed is quite strong, although his first step or two aren't the quickest. Pulkkinen defends well due to his length and that he's quite physical. Offensively, he doesn't stand out as much, but he has hands and can make checkers miss. He fights the puck at times when he needs to make quick decisions, though. If his first pass and decisions gets more consistent he could be a legit longtime NHL defender, but for now, I see a third-pair type.

47, Timur Kol, D, 6'3" - Skating, Hockey Sense, Compete Average. Puck Skills Below Average. Shot Above Average. He is a talented, offensively tilted defenseman. He's a smart puck-mover who can make a strong first pass and create from the offensive blue line. His skating stride isn't technically great, drawing ire from scouts due to how much he inside-outs his feet. He is a powerful skater, though, who can escape pressure and activate off the point. He has a good shot and enough skill to get points versus men. His defensive play isn't as strong. He lacks physicality and his defensive coverage needs some work. The hope is with his frame and mobility he can make enough stops and retrievals as a pro to go with his skill. He could be a third-pair defenseman.

48, Maxim Masse, RW, 6'1". Skating is Poor, Compete is Below Average, Hockey Sense Average, Puck Skills Above Average, Shot is High End. He has a ton of offensive skill and IQ and good size as well. Masse is also a dangerous goal scorer who can wire bullets from the faceoff dot with his one timer. There's no doubt about what he can do with the puck inside the offensive zone, but getting the puck into the zone will be a major challenge for him in the NHL due to his skating. He's a technically flawed skater and that will be his major challenge in having an NHL career on top of giving inconsistent efforts without the puck. His offensive gifts and size should get him games but he will need to prove to NHL coaches he can be trusted for a regular shift.

49, Ryder Ritchie, RW, 6' - Puck Skills Above Average, Compete, Skating, Hockey Sense Average. He is an average-sized winger, but he brings a ton of skill to the table. He is a very elusive forward due to his skating and hands and can make a lot of tough plays with pace. His effort is fine but his consistency could be better. I also don't think he's a dynamic playmaking winger but instead a very good one. He has NHL talent, but I don't see a clear role for him and I think he could frustrate coaches as well.

50, Emil Hemming, RW, 6'1" - Skating, Puck Skills, Hockey Sense Average. Compete Below Average, Shot High End. He's a highly skilled winger who can skate well. He is dangerous in transition, creates a lot of controlled entries and can break open shifts with his skill. Hemming can make plays and see openings develop, but his shot is his best weapon. He can rip pucks from range and will be a legit goal-scoring threat versus top goalies. Like a lot of goal scorers, Hemming can lean on his shot too much and stays on the outside. The lack of interior offense and inconsistent effort is the only thing keeping me from tabbing him as a potential middle-six forward.

Overall...I just don't really see anything in this range (and granted, this is only ONE source of rankings) that excites me or says "we absolutely MUST keep these 2nd round picks" If we are able to use them as part of a trade, or even package them both to move up maybe 20th overall, I would highly consider it.

For reference, Athletic has done a few early looks at next year's draft. 30 or less players, but, while James Hagens is the only Tier 1 player similar to this year, he lists 12 players as Tier 2 (compared to 1 this year), and he lists 15 players as Tier 3 (compared to only 3 this year). So that already has the makings of a much deeper draft. Also important to note the 2024 rankings above are from Corey Pronman, and the 2025 early rankings are from Scott Wheeler, 2 different people doing the ratings.

FLPF, that's a lot of great information. Thanks for taking the time to provide. Ever thought of moving to Pittsburgh and becoming a member of the local reporting group??

I guess the value is more slanted toward using the pick as a sweetener, or combined it with the other 2nd round pick, and move up. Looking at the players who are projected in the draft, no one really of worth would be available for the pick. Just thinking out loud, maybe combined them and trade for a potential higher first round pick next year in a deeper pool...

That late season winning spurt did more damage than good by taking the first round pick off of the table it seems.

No desire to move back to Pittsburgh. I've looked into some hockey writing roles at times, and my twitter handle RandomHockeyGuy was original grabbed when I was debating doing a podcast. In the end, I didn't have the time to commit to it, and while I wasn't looking to break the bank with part time writing, it also didn't seem worth the time.

Moving up into the first round...by the Athletic's rankings, if Cole Eiserman(16th) or Konsta Helenius(14th) fell into the top 20, I would attempt to move up and grab one. But I see other mocks and ratings that have Eiserman going 5th overall and Helenius around 11th, so that seems very, very doubtful.

Use them in a player/prospect trade, or do what you said and see if you can trade them for a late first in next year's draft. Maybe we expand my Smith and Sissons trade to be Smith and both are 2nds for Sissons and a 2025 1st from Nashville. Nashville has 2 1sts, its own and one from Tampa from the Tanner Jeannot trade. Put in a condition where Pittsburgh gets the later of those 2 picks, and it seems like a potential good deal for Nashville, although, Nashville already has 3 2nds this year. But then, maybe Nashville can some combination of their 5 picks and their 1st round pick 22nd overall to move up, say to SJ for 14th overall.

Chicago also has 2 picks, their own and Toronto's pick from the McCabe deal.
SJ also has 2 first round picks next year, their own and Vegas's from the Hertl deal.
Montreal has 2 picks, their own plus Calgary's pick from Monahan deal.

[Daniel]

Is it too early to see what quality the 44th overall, 2nd rounder, pick brings in the draft? Is this upcoming draft deep enough to use for a player, or does it serve more valuable as a trade chip?

This is a top-heavy draft. The Athletic just did another writeup this week on it's draft rankings. They ranked 129 players in 9 different tiers.

Tier 1 is elite player, and Macklin Celebrini is the only player in this tier.
Tier 2 is NHL All-Star and on the bubble of elite, and the only player in this tier is d-man Artyom Levshunov.
Tier 3 is NHL All-Star, and there are 3 players in this tier.
Tier 4 is bubble All-Star and top of the lineup player. There are 3 players in this tier.
Tier 5 is top of the lineup player. There are 3 players in this tier.
(we are through 5 tiers and only 11 players)
Tier 6 is bubble top lineup and middle 6 player. There are 7 players ranked here.
Tier 7 is straight middle 6 projection. There are 21 players in this group.
(39 players total in the first 7 tiers)
Tier 8 is "projected to play NHL games" there are roughly 34 players in this tier.
Tier 9 is "may play NHL games" and there are 56 players in this group.

(at the end after looking at these players, I will put some information about the early peeks into the 2025 NHL draft)

So, while players rise and fall, the Penguins picks 44 and 46 are likely to be in that Tier 8 level player, should play in the NHL at some point. For each of the players ranked, they graded them in 4 categories: Skating, Puck Skills, Hockey Sense, and Compete. Here's a look at players 40-50, ones that may be in our range (with kind of the good and bad of them):

40, Lucas Pettersson, Center, 5'11 - Everything but compete is rated Average, Compete is rated High-End. Pettersson is a skilled forward with good speed who can make a lot of difficult plays. Pettersson's motor is excellent too. He wins a lot of battles, and despite his size, he excels in the tough areas of the offensive zone. He's not the most dynamic player you'll ever see, but the sum of the parts looks like a potential bottom-six forward or fourth-line center in the NHL.

41, Sam O'Reilly, RW, 6'1" - Everything but compete is rated Average, Compete is rated Above-Average. He's a two-way center. He competes hard and has physicality. I've seen quicker skaters, but he can escape pressure and has good enough quickness for the NHL level. O'Reilly has quality skill and vision and can create chances. He has a decent shot but I like him more when he's making plays. He has the potential to be a bottom-six center in the league.

42, Henry Mews, D, 6 foot - Hockey Sense Above Average, other 3 skills average. He's very intelligent with the puck. Mews shows good poise and creativity making plays on top of a strong point shot. He skates well and can both skate and pass pucks out of trouble. He got his points this year, but the issues for him this season were defensive. He struggled in his own end, getting pushed around physically. He was a decent defender coming up so I wonder if he can bounce back in that regard. He's skilled enough to get NHL games but will need to round out his play, especially as an average-sized player. (for reference, I've seen another place that has Mews going as high as 25th overall)

43, Luca Marrelli, D, 6'1" - 5 skills rated...Skating and Compete Average, Puck Skills Below Average, Hockey Sense and Shot Above Average. He's a strong skating defenseman who can close on pucks defensively well and is able to attack with speed. Offensively he won't be a dominant pro, but he has skill and creative playmaking in his game. Marrelli can activate off the blue line, create off the rush, has a good point shot and shows instincts to hit seams as well. He competes fine, but isn't overly physical and is average sized. He lacks a clear defined role in the NHL, even if he has a lot of positives. He has a real chance to play games.

44, Ben Danford, D, 6'1" - Hockey Sense and Compete Above Average, Skating Average, Puck Skills Below Average. Danford skates quite well. He's able to escape pressure with the puck and skate pucks up ice like a pro. Defensively he closes on pucks quickly, and competes well enough to win a lot of close races. Offensively he's not dynamic, but he's quite smart with the puck. He makes a lot difficult passes, often while skating with pace. I don't think he stands out at either end of the ice in the NHL, but he could be a useful defenseman for an organization.

45, Harrison Brunicke, D, 6'2" - Skating and Puck Skills Average, Hockey Sense Below Average, Compete Above Average. He's 6-foot-3, skates well and has a strong offensive skill level. On his best shift with the way he can rush up ice and activate off the blue line, he looks like a legit NHL prospect. Brunicke can make some tough plays, but he forces a lot of his decisions, doesn't always see the ice well and is running around in his own end. He probably isn't a big points type as a pro, but with his feet, length and a strong compete level if he's just OK with the puck he can be a third-pair defenseman.

46, Jesse Pulkkinen, D, 6'5" - Skating and Hockey Sense Below Average. Puck Skills Average. Compete Above Average. He scored big numbers at the junior level, and then got brought up to Liiga. He also made Finland's world junior team as a top-four defenseman. Pulkkinen is very toolsy. He's a 6-foot-6 defender who skates quite well for his size. His straight-line speed is quite strong, although his first step or two aren't the quickest. Pulkkinen defends well due to his length and that he's quite physical. Offensively, he doesn't stand out as much, but he has hands and can make checkers miss. He fights the puck at times when he needs to make quick decisions, though. If his first pass and decisions gets more consistent he could be a legit longtime NHL defender, but for now, I see a third-pair type.

47, Timur Kol, D, 6'3" - Skating, Hockey Sense, Compete Average. Puck Skills Below Average. Shot Above Average. He is a talented, offensively tilted defenseman. He's a smart puck-mover who can make a strong first pass and create from the offensive blue line. His skating stride isn't technically great, drawing ire from scouts due to how much he inside-outs his feet. He is a powerful skater, though, who can escape pressure and activate off the point. He has a good shot and enough skill to get points versus men. His defensive play isn't as strong. He lacks physicality and his defensive coverage needs some work. The hope is with his frame and mobility he can make enough stops and retrievals as a pro to go with his skill. He could be a third-pair defenseman.

48, Maxim Masse, RW, 6'1". Skating is Poor, Compete is Below Average, Hockey Sense Average, Puck Skills Above Average, Shot is High End. He has a ton of offensive skill and IQ and good size as well. Masse is also a dangerous goal scorer who can wire bullets from the faceoff dot with his one timer. There's no doubt about what he can do with the puck inside the offensive zone, but getting the puck into the zone will be a major challenge for him in the NHL due to his skating. He's a technically flawed skater and that will be his major challenge in having an NHL career on top of giving inconsistent efforts without the puck. His offensive gifts and size should get him games but he will need to prove to NHL coaches he can be trusted for a regular shift.

49, Ryder Ritchie, RW, 6' - Puck Skills Above Average, Compete, Skating, Hockey Sense Average. He is an average-sized winger, but he brings a ton of skill to the table. He is a very elusive forward due to his skating and hands and can make a lot of tough plays with pace. His effort is fine but his consistency could be better. I also don't think he's a dynamic playmaking winger but instead a very good one. He has NHL talent, but I don't see a clear role for him and I think he could frustrate coaches as well.

50, Emil Hemming, RW, 6'1" - Skating, Puck Skills, Hockey Sense Average. Compete Below Average, Shot High End. He's a highly skilled winger who can skate well. He is dangerous in transition, creates a lot of controlled entries and can break open shifts with his skill. Hemming can make plays and see openings develop, but his shot is his best weapon. He can rip pucks from range and will be a legit goal-scoring threat versus top goalies. Like a lot of goal scorers, Hemming can lean on his shot too much and stays on the outside. The lack of interior offense and inconsistent effort is the only thing keeping me from tabbing him as a potential middle-six forward.

Overall...I just don't really see anything in this range (and granted, this is only ONE source of rankings) that excites me or says "we absolutely MUST keep these 2nd round picks" If we are able to use them as part of a trade, or even package them both to move up maybe 20th overall, I would highly consider it.

For reference, Athletic has done a few early looks at next year's draft. 30 or less players, but, while James Hagens is the only Tier 1 player similar to this year, he lists 12 players as Tier 2 (compared to 1 this year), and he lists 15 players as Tier 3 (compared to only 3 this year). So that already has the makings of a much deeper draft. Also important to note the 2024 rankings above are from Corey Pronman, and the 2025 early rankings are from Scott Wheeler, 2 different people doing the ratings.

Lucas Pettersson kinda reads like Jake Guentzel. One of those "sum of all parts" players that will probably overachieve the draft description.

[FLPensFan]

Is it too early to see what quality the 44th overall, 2nd rounder, pick brings in the draft? Is this upcoming draft deep enough to use for a player, or does it serve more valuable as a trade chip?

This is a top-heavy draft. The Athletic just did another writeup this week on it's draft rankings. They ranked 129 players in 9 different tiers.

Tier 1 is elite player, and Macklin Celebrini is the only player in this tier.
Tier 2 is NHL All-Star and on the bubble of elite, and the only player in this tier is d-man Artyom Levshunov.
Tier 3 is NHL All-Star, and there are 3 players in this tier.
Tier 4 is bubble All-Star and top of the lineup player. There are 3 players in this tier.
Tier 5 is top of the lineup player. There are 3 players in this tier.
(we are through 5 tiers and only 11 players)
Tier 6 is bubble top lineup and middle 6 player. There are 7 players ranked here.
Tier 7 is straight middle 6 projection. There are 21 players in this group.
(39 players total in the first 7 tiers)
Tier 8 is "projected to play NHL games" there are roughly 34 players in this tier.
Tier 9 is "may play NHL games" and there are 56 players in this group.

(at the end after looking at these players, I will put some information about the early peeks into the 2025 NHL draft)

So, while players rise and fall, the Penguins picks 44 and 46 are likely to be in that Tier 8 level player, should play in the NHL at some point. For each of the players ranked, they graded them in 4 categories: Skating, Puck Skills, Hockey Sense, and Compete. Here's a look at players 40-50, ones that may be in our range (with kind of the good and bad of them):

40, Lucas Pettersson, Center, 5'11 - Everything but compete is rated Average, Compete is rated High-End. Pettersson is a skilled forward with good speed who can make a lot of difficult plays. Pettersson's motor is excellent too. He wins a lot of battles, and despite his size, he excels in the tough areas of the offensive zone. He's not the most dynamic player you'll ever see, but the sum of the parts looks like a potential bottom-six forward or fourth-line center in the NHL.

41, Sam O'Reilly, RW, 6'1" - Everything but compete is rated Average, Compete is rated Above-Average. He's a two-way center. He competes hard and has physicality. I've seen quicker skaters, but he can escape pressure and has good enough quickness for the NHL level. O'Reilly has quality skill and vision and can create chances. He has a decent shot but I like him more when he's making plays. He has the potential to be a bottom-six center in the league.

42, Henry Mews, D, 6 foot - Hockey Sense Above Average, other 3 skills average. He's very intelligent with the puck. Mews shows good poise and creativity making plays on top of a strong point shot. He skates well and can both skate and pass pucks out of trouble. He got his points this year, but the issues for him this season were defensive. He struggled in his own end, getting pushed around physically. He was a decent defender coming up so I wonder if he can bounce back in that regard. He's skilled enough to get NHL games but will need to round out his play, especially as an average-sized player. (for reference, I've seen another place that has Mews going as high as 25th overall)

43, Luca Marrelli, D, 6'1" - 5 skills rated...Skating and Compete Average, Puck Skills Below Average, Hockey Sense and Shot Above Average. He's a strong skating defenseman who can close on pucks defensively well and is able to attack with speed. Offensively he won't be a dominant pro, but he has skill and creative playmaking in his game. Marrelli can activate off the blue line, create off the rush, has a good point shot and shows instincts to hit seams as well. He competes fine, but isn't overly physical and is average sized. He lacks a clear defined role in the NHL, even if he has a lot of positives. He has a real chance to play games.

44, Ben Danford, D, 6'1" - Hockey Sense and Compete Above Average, Skating Average, Puck Skills Below Average. Danford skates quite well. He's able to escape pressure with the puck and skate pucks up ice like a pro. Defensively he closes on pucks quickly, and competes well enough to win a lot of close races. Offensively he's not dynamic, but he's quite smart with the puck. He makes a lot difficult passes, often while skating with pace. I don't think he stands out at either end of the ice in the NHL, but he could be a useful defenseman for an organization.

45, Harrison Brunicke, D, 6'2" - Skating and Puck Skills Average, Hockey Sense Below Average, Compete Above Average. He's 6-foot-3, skates well and has a strong offensive skill level. On his best shift with the way he can rush up ice and activate off the blue line, he looks like a legit NHL prospect. Brunicke can make some tough plays, but he forces a lot of his decisions, doesn't always see the ice well and is running around in his own end. He probably isn't a big points type as a pro, but with his feet, length and a strong compete level if he's just OK with the puck he can be a third-pair defenseman.

46, Jesse Pulkkinen, D, 6'5" - Skating and Hockey Sense Below Average. Puck Skills Average. Compete Above Average. He scored big numbers at the junior level, and then got brought up to Liiga. He also made Finland's world junior team as a top-four defenseman. Pulkkinen is very toolsy. He's a 6-foot-6 defender who skates quite well for his size. His straight-line speed is quite strong, although his first step or two aren't the quickest. Pulkkinen defends well due to his length and that he's quite physical. Offensively, he doesn't stand out as much, but he has hands and can make checkers miss. He fights the puck at times when he needs to make quick decisions, though. If his first pass and decisions gets more consistent he could be a legit longtime NHL defender, but for now, I see a third-pair type.

47, Timur Kol, D, 6'3" - Skating, Hockey Sense, Compete Average. Puck Skills Below Average. Shot Above Average. He is a talented, offensively tilted defenseman. He's a smart puck-mover who can make a strong first pass and create from the offensive blue line. His skating stride isn't technically great, drawing ire from scouts due to how much he inside-outs his feet. He is a powerful skater, though, who can escape pressure and activate off the point. He has a good shot and enough skill to get points versus men. His defensive play isn't as strong. He lacks physicality and his defensive coverage needs some work. The hope is with his frame and mobility he can make enough stops and retrievals as a pro to go with his skill. He could be a third-pair defenseman.

48, Maxim Masse, RW, 6'1". Skating is Poor, Compete is Below Average, Hockey Sense Average, Puck Skills Above Average, Shot is High End. He has a ton of offensive skill and IQ and good size as well. Masse is also a dangerous goal scorer who can wire bullets from the faceoff dot with his one timer. There's no doubt about what he can do with the puck inside the offensive zone, but getting the puck into the zone will be a major challenge for him in the NHL due to his skating. He's a technically flawed skater and that will be his major challenge in having an NHL career on top of giving inconsistent efforts without the puck. His offensive gifts and size should get him games but he will need to prove to NHL coaches he can be trusted for a regular shift.

49, Ryder Ritchie, RW, 6' - Puck Skills Above Average, Compete, Skating, Hockey Sense Average. He is an average-sized winger, but he brings a ton of skill to the table. He is a very elusive forward due to his skating and hands and can make a lot of tough plays with pace. His effort is fine but his consistency could be better. I also don't think he's a dynamic playmaking winger but instead a very good one. He has NHL talent, but I don't see a clear role for him and I think he could frustrate coaches as well.

50, Emil Hemming, RW, 6'1" - Skating, Puck Skills, Hockey Sense Average. Compete Below Average, Shot High End. He's a highly skilled winger who can skate well. He is dangerous in transition, creates a lot of controlled entries and can break open shifts with his skill. Hemming can make plays and see openings develop, but his shot is his best weapon. He can rip pucks from range and will be a legit goal-scoring threat versus top goalies. Like a lot of goal scorers, Hemming can lean on his shot too much and stays on the outside. The lack of interior offense and inconsistent effort is the only thing keeping me from tabbing him as a potential middle-six forward.

Overall...I just don't really see anything in this range (and granted, this is only ONE source of rankings) that excites me or says "we absolutely MUST keep these 2nd round picks" If we are able to use them as part of a trade, or even package them both to move up maybe 20th overall, I would highly consider it.

For reference, Athletic has done a few early looks at next year's draft. 30 or less players, but, while James Hagens is the only Tier 1 player similar to this year, he lists 12 players as Tier 2 (compared to 1 this year), and he lists 15 players as Tier 3 (compared to only 3 this year). So that already has the makings of a much deeper draft. Also important to note the 2024 rankings above are from Corey Pronman, and the 2025 early rankings are from Scott Wheeler, 2 different people doing the ratings.

Lucas Pettersson kinda reads like Jake Guentzel. One of those "sum of all parts" players that will probably overachieve the draft description.

The mock draft I am looking at has him going 45, right in-between the 2 Penguins picks. His biggest knock, above what I see written by the Athletic, is he hasn't played much pro hockey. He's played only 5 games in the SHL (Sweden), with no points. His one or two decent seasons are all against similar age competition. That makes it hard to judge what he can do at the pro level. Flip over to Konsta Helenius, who has played 2 seasons in Liiga (Finland)...33 games in first season, 11 points...then 51 games last year, 14 goals, 36 points. So not only is Helenius playing against the top competition and guys much older than him, he improved year over year. That's why Helenius is ranked as the 2nd best center behind Celebrini in a lot of reviews, and Pettersson is ranked maybe 20th best center at best. There just isn't enough good data for me to get excited about picking Pettersson.

[Daniel]

The mock draft I am looking at has him going 45, right in-between the 2 Penguins picks. His biggest knock, above what I see written by the Athletic, is he hasn't played much pro hockey. He's played only 5 games in the SHL (Sweden), with no points. His one or two decent seasons are all against similar age competition. That makes it hard to judge what he can do at the pro level. Flip over to Konsta Helenius, who has played 2 seasons in Liiga (Finland)...33 games in first season, 11 points...then 51 games last year, 14 goals, 36 points. So not only is Helenius playing against the top competition and guys much older than him, he improved year over year. That's why Helenius is ranked as the 2nd best center behind Celebrini in a lot of reviews, and Pettersson is ranked maybe 20th best center at best. There just isn't enough good data for me to get excited about picking Pettersson.

I get that and Jake played double the games with double the points, but coming into the draft he was too small, doesn't necessarily stand out, high hockey IQ, sum of his parts are good, 3rd liner (from memory so might not be exact).

Just saying Pettersson reads a lot like that, where nothing necessarily stands out but overall nothing is really lacking ya know? Not sure that I would want him in the 2nd round, but 77th?

Jake probably went where he should have in the draft (77th) and I think he's someone who benefited from a slow ascent through college then some WBS seasoning before having a really nice NHL career. Not saying Pettersson will be the next Jake, but did anyone think Jake would have this kind of career 10 years ago?