The Return of the Playoff Tracker Thread

[FLPensFan]

Penguins have 12 games remaining, a possible 24 points to earn. Currently with 70 points, max points is 94.

--Philadelphia has 81 points today. They need 13 points to eliminate Penguins from 3rd in Metro
--Tampa has 83 points today. They need 11 points to eliminate Penguins from WC1 spot.
--Washington has 79 points today. They need 15 points to eliminate Penguins from WC2 spot.

Detroit, Islanders, Devils and Sabres are also all above the Penguins in the standings. WC2 spot looks to be a fight between Caps, Wings, and Isles.

Penguins are currently 9th worst points overall. Buffalo, Calgary, and NJ are 2 points or less above the Penguins.
Seattle is one point below the Penguins in 8th. Arizona is 7 points below Penguins in 7th. OTT and MTL are both 8 points below the Penguins.

Penguins can likely finish anywhere from 8th to 12th worst overall. Missing the playoffs and giving SJ an 11th or 12th overall pick would likely be about the most disappointing possible result for this season.

[DelPen]

11th pick we can’t use, Sullivan not fired and Carter extended. That would be a nightmare.

[stonewizard51]

Expect more of the same if this coaching staff and most of the team, as it is right now, returns next year. Not a whole lot of hope there if changes aren't made.

[pekkasteele]

I hope we end up with the 11th this year so that we can keep next years pick.

If we stay with Sully for next year we would pick even higher than this year so that will be an even better pick!

If we don't have Sully next year and we improve, well, I much rather not have sully than have a high pick right now....

[FLPensFan]

I hope we end up with the 11th this year so that we can keep next years pick.

If we stay with Sully for next year we would pick even higher than this year so that will be an even better pick!

If we don't have Sully next year and we improve, well, I much rather not have sully than have a high pick right now....

There's simply no guarantee we will be worse. It's highly probable, but no sure thing. I would not risk throwing away a sure top 10 pick (if we get there) for the CHANCE that we are worse next year.

You also have to factor in time. There is a better chance that a top 10 pick this year could still play before Crosby retires. There is one more year gone in 2025, so one more year of chance gone that the top 10 pick next year.

Also, Scott Wheeler just updated his draft rankings. On January 31st, he had Celebrini as a Tier 1 player (elite), and 4 players as Tier 2 (NHL All-Star). In his rankings today, Tier 2 now includes 11 players.

There are 4 really good defenseman in Levshunov, Dickinson, Silayev, and Buium. (Parekh is also in that mix, but I'm not as high on him; Silayev is still in Russia, so I'd have caution on him too).

On the wings, you have Demidov (still in Russia, an added caution)and Eiserman.

At center, you have Catton, Helenius, and Lindstrom. Lindstrom is a big 6-5 power forward type that will likely go higher than his current 11th overall ranking because size and skill like his are hard to find. Catton is my early favorite.

There are good picks here. There is zero reason to pass, unless Dubas is having a full fire sale this summer and going with Crosby, Malkin, Letang and a bunch of kids and fringe players.

[BlackNGold4Life]

This team is stuck in excuse mode. “If only we had healthy goaltending” if only we had a better PP. They are stuck in the “
We are close to competing” frame of mind. Albeit some truth - but competing for a playoff spot VS actually being a good team that can compete for championships is another story.

I’ll be disappointed if after this season and dramatically different direction isn’t put into motion. Even with our core of unmoveable pieces. We can infuse a new coach, new direction, new roster to support this vision and youth.

Our gone players aren’t on great contracts but it’s doable, as they aren’t inflated so bad we don’t have room to work.

This willl be the most important off seasons in many years.

[DelPen]

How good is this Celebrini kid supposed to be? New face of a feanchise up there with Bedard, Hughes or Mathews? Or more along the lines of Lafreniere, Hischier or Slatkovsky?

Say we win the #1 pick, would there be a situation where it would make sense to us and the Sharks if we were to keep the 2024 pick but then trade it for the Sharks 2024 pick and our 2025 pick?

Sharks would still be picking top 3 most likely if they don’t win the lottery. Is Celebrini a guy who will change the course of a franchise? Is there a talent gap between him and say the rest of the consensus top 5?

If things are like last years draft then we would have to take Celebrini. If it’s like say the 2022 draft it seems like anyone taken in the top 5 has an equal chance to end up being the best pick.

[Ericf]

How good is this Celebrini kid supposed to be? New face of a feanchise up there with Bedard, Hughes or Mathews? Or more along the lines of Lafreniere, Hischier or Slatkovsky?

Say we win the #1 pick, would there be a situation where it would make sense to us and the Sharks if we were to keep the 2024 pick but then trade it for the Sharks 2024 pick and our 2025 pick?

Sharks would still be picking top 3 most likely if they don’t win the lottery. Is Celebrini a guy who will change the course of a franchise? Is there a talent gap between him and say the rest of the consensus top 5?

If things are like last years draft then we would have to take Celebrini. If it’s like say the 2022 draft it seems like anyone taken in the top 5 has an equal chance to end up being the best pick.

He’s more like Hischier which is damn good. Not Bedard level but he’d start immediately for us as a top six center and push Geno down to L3. Would be a godsend for us but he’s not going to make us a SC contender alone

[pekkasteele]

I hope we end up with the 11th this year so that we can keep next years pick.

If we stay with Sully for next year we would pick even higher than this year so that will be an even better pick!

If we don't have Sully next year and we improve, well, I much rather not have sully than have a high pick right now....

There's simply no guarantee we will be worse. It's highly probable, but no sure thing. I would not risk throwing away a sure top 10 pick (if we get there) for the CHANCE that we are worse next year.

You also have to factor in time. There is a better chance that a top 10 pick this year could still play before Crosby retires. There is one more year gone in 2025, so one more year of chance gone that the top 10 pick next year.

Yea I agree, we can't know, but, it is also a kind of self preservation thing, that IF we don't fire Sully this summer, at least we are in for a better draft pick next year. But If we fire Sully this summer, I'm fine with keeping the pick this year.

And about time, I see your point, but also, I don't think there is anything we can do to even challenge for a Cup again while Sid is playing, so I rather crash out completely now, because if we get a good pick now, and we try retooling due to that instead of rebuilding, I think it will take longer for us to be contenders again.

[Southern Fan]

Caps are likely going to pass Flyers for third in Metro.

Pens are 10 points behind the Flyers with two games in hand. Still unlikely to catch either, but they have a Lloyd Christmas chance.

[Puck-Lurker]

Now.. watch the Pens land 10th place in the east, don't win the draft lottery and pass the 14th overall pick to Sharks.. Pens first selection is in the second round at #48 (Flyers' 2nd rounder).

[Antonio]

Funny that we had to pay them to take Granlund off our hands and he is their leading scorer with 49p in 59g. Talk about a terrible team though...1 guy with 20 goals.

[yinzer69]

According the experts on this board, Sullivan hates young players, so why do we want to win the draft lottery, by this boards logic Sullivan wouldn't play Celebrini anyhow right? Just going by what the experts tell me. Tell me where I am wrong?

[Puck-Lurker]

According the experts on this board, Sullivan hates young players, so why do we want to win the draft lottery, by this boards logic Sullivan wouldn't play Celebrini anyhow right? Just going by what the experts tell me. Tell me where I am wrong?

This way.

[Admin]

According the experts on this board, Sullivan hates young players, so why do we want to win the draft lottery, by this boards logic Sullivan wouldn't play Celebrini anyhow right? Just going by what the experts tell me. Tell me where I am wrong?

You may have missed the part of not wanting Sullivan as coach?

[DelPen]

According the experts on this board, Sullivan hates young players, so why do we want to win the draft lottery, by this boards logic Sullivan wouldn't play Celebrini anyhow right? Just going by what the experts tell me. Tell me where I am wrong?

Where’s the conflict, everyone wants Sullivan gone and want a very good player in this draft.

[yinzer69]

Then when the new coach plays Matt Neito over Gruden the experts will be calling for the new coach's head.


If Jesus Christ was the coach u guys would want him fired.

[Puck-Lurker]

Then when the new coach plays Matt Neito over Gruden the experts will be calling for the new coach's head.


If Jesus Christ was the coach u guys would want him fired.

Be nice to have some solid proof of the existence of the man at least? Wouldn't be my first pick for a hockey coach, though.

[Zarovich]

Then when the new coach plays Matt Neito over Gruden the experts will be calling for the new coach's head.


If Jesus Christ was the coach u guys would want him fired.

Be nice to have some solid proof of the existence of the man at least? Wouldn't be my first pick for a hockey coach, though.

I wouldn’t be impressed when he walks on water, is is frozen after all

[Puck-Lurker]

Then when the new coach plays Matt Nieto over Gruden the experts will be calling for the new coach's head.


If Jesus Christ was the coach u guys would want him fired.

Be nice to have some solid proof of the existence of the man at least? Wouldn't be my first pick for a hockey coach, though.

I wouldn’t be impressed when he walks on water, is is frozen after all

Did some looking into this coach candidate, I'm afraid to say it's a no go. Apparently, there's a clause he needs to follow from an old contract. He doesn't want people picking up sticks on the sabbath.

In seriousness, if we had a different coach and he made seemingly sensible decisions, but we would do even worse... I wouldn't be calling for his head. I'm not calling for Dubas' head either. I find no reason to do so, at this time. Before I really complain about him, I want to see what he does in the off-season and up to the next deadline.

Someone will tell you how long ago it was Pens won a playoff series. First round exits after that. Not qualifying for the playoffs after that. The eye-test is failing and Sullivan's decisions are predictable and difficult to explain. It's been a good long run, do we need to see more?

[Skatingpen]

How do you have a minus 31 goal differential and be the 3rd seed? How is that even possible……

[FLPensFan]

Philly is 3rd in Metro, 83 points, 6 games remaining, 95 maximum possible points
Tampa is WC1 spot, 89 points, 8 games remaining, 105 maximum possible points
Capitals are WC2 spot, 82 points, 9 games remaining, 100 maximum possible points
Detroit has 82 points, 7 games remaining, 96 maximum possible points
Islanders have 79 points, 8 games remaining, 95 maximum possible points

Penguins have 77 points, 8 games remaining, 93 maximum possible points

Tampa just needs to go 3-4-1 in their last 8 games to clinch WC1 spot. (Toronto needs 6 points in their last 8 games to lock up 3rd in Atlantic)
Tampa at 8-1-1 and Washington and 6-3-1 are the 2 hottest teams of this group.
I'd expect Washington is going to pass Philly, with 3 games in hand and only 1 point behind.

The Pittsburgh-Washington game on Thursday could end up being the biggest game of the season. The NJ and WSH games should have a playoff mindset from the Penguins. Win those 2 games, and they are in a much, much better position for a playoff spot. Still going to be difficult, but a loss to Washington would be a huge dagger to the gut.

[KG]

After the win last night the chances of making the playoffs is up to 4%, per Stathletes.

Wonder what it would be if we actually beat Jersey and Washington next 2 games.

[Puck-Lurker]

After the win last night the chances of making the playoffs is up to 4%, per Stathletes.

Wonder what it would be if we actually beat Jersey and Washington next 2 games.

Not that much. % increasing would require a lot of teams to drop points. Off the top of my head somewhere in the 5-7% range.

[Admin]

I can't believe we are still talking about the playoffs. LGP!