The Return of the Playoff Tracker Thread

[FLPensFan]

Penguins maximum point total on the season is 99 points
Magic number for the Penguins is currently 24. Any combination of teams above them gaining 24 points or Penguins losing 24 points knocks them out of the playoffs.

Penguins are currently 1 game above .500

In the race for the BOTTOM/LOTTERY PICK
--The Penguins currently sit in 8th place
--NJ in 9th, 1 more point than Pittsburgh with 1 extra game played
--SEA in 10th, 1 more point than Pittsburgh, with 1 game in hand.
--MTL is in 7th, 6 points fewer than Pittsburgh, and 1 more game played.
--ARZ is in 6th, 6 points fewer than Pittsburgh, and 2 more games played.
--OTT is in 5th, 7 points fewer than Pittsburgh, with 1 game in hand.
--Columbus is in 4th, 10 points fewer than Pittsburgh, 1 more game played

[KG]

So you're saying there's a chance

[FLPensFan]

Depending on your outlook, this weekend was not good. Just like trading Jake was hard but the right move for the organization, missing the playoffs again will be hard, but is the right step for the organization.

Unfortunately, with that win yesterday, the Penguins are now currently sitting at 11th place in the draft. Not in the playoffs, and not in the draft lottery...which is, about the worst possible position they can be in, organizationally.

The Penguins are 5 and 7 points out of a WC2 and 3rd Metro spot, respectively. As much as I want Sid to have another shot in the playoffs...I wasn't too keen on a Guentzel-filled Penguins success in the post-season. Without him, they are an injury or two away from a largely AHL level lineup.

[KG]

Depending on your outlook, this weekend was not good. Just like trading Jake was hard but the right move for the organization, missing the playoffs again will be hard, but is the right step for the organization.

Unfortunately, with that win yesterday, the Penguins are now currently sitting at 11th place in the draft. Not in the playoffs, and not in the draft lottery...which is, about the worst possible position they can be in, organizationally.

The Penguins are 5 and 7 points out of a WC2 and 3rd Metro spot, respectively. As much as I want Sid to have another shot in the playoffs...I wasn't too keen on a Guentzel-filled Penguins success in the post-season. Without him, they are an injury or two away from a largely AHL level lineup.

Gonna be a tough week coming up for the Pens. At Devils tomorrow, at Dallas Friday, At Colorado Sunday, Home Carolina Tuesday. I expect them to be back in the lottery race soon enough lol.

[ahawk9]

I've been waffling between coming to terms with a lottery pick this year and pulling for them to go on a little run. Right now, because of their having to give SJ a No. 1 pick at some point, I'm kind of hoping for a little run to get them at least to 14th or 15th. I'd feel better about getting that pick out of the way now. Sure, they could be better next year. But they could also be much worse in a deeper draft. Not sure how much a difference a Canes first-round pick or the 2nd round one we'd get of Philly's this year, but that's another reason I hope to get that SJ commitment off the table asap. When the Pens were free falling after the Calgary debacle, I figured they'd race toward the bottom. I give them credit for showing some pluck yesterday. While that pluck might submarine their chances of a top 5 pick this year, it might make shipping off the No. 1 a little easier.

[Admin]

Perspective from SJ paper:
https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/03/13/ ... t-benefit/

[FLPensFan]

I've been waffling between coming to terms with a lottery pick this year and pulling for them to go on a little run. Right now, because of their having to give SJ a No. 1 pick at some point, I'm kind of hoping for a little run to get them at least to 14th or 15th. I'd feel better about getting that pick out of the way now. Sure, they could be better next year. But they could also be much worse in a deeper draft. Not sure how much a difference a Canes first-round pick or the 2nd round one we'd get of Philly's this year, but that's another reason I hope to get that SJ commitment off the table asap. When the Pens were free falling after the Calgary debacle, I figured they'd race toward the bottom. I give them credit for showing some pluck yesterday. While that pluck might submarine their chances of a top 5 pick this year, it might make shipping off the No. 1 a little easier.

If they haven't stockpiled picks for next year, then having the 2025 be a "deeper draft" isn't going to have that big of an impact. It also really depends on what the meaning of "deeper draft" is. For example, this is seen as a weaker draft year. In 2024, there really aren't any challengers to Macklin Celebrini for the top overall pick, and this draft is said to drop off after about pick 20 or so, meaning later round picks may not be as strong as prior years.

As an example, Scott Wheeler of the Athletic has Celebrini as the only Tier 1 player, 5 Tier 2 players, and 4 Tier 3 players.
In his first look at 2025, Wheeler has James Hagens as the only Tier 1 player, but has 12 Tier 2 players, and 15 Tier 3 players.

Hard to tell from a first look at the 2025 draft, but 2025 being a deeper draft year just means you have a better chance of getting a good player into the late teens and early 20s. If you were picking 8th overall in both drafts, you still have a decent chance in 2024 of getting a Tier 2 player, while in 2025 you are guaranteed (if you don't go off board) of getting a Tier 2 player.

But we still don't know how the draft shakes out for those Round 2 and Round 3 picks. I'm still in the mindset of get the best possible pick when you can.

[ahawk9]

Thanks for posting. Sharks are in a good spot either way. They should stink next year as well, so they'll have their own 2 top 10 picks and and a decent pick with the Pens' No. 1 one of these two years. Oh, and I forgot they also got a first for Hertl, so they'll have four No. 1 picks total over the next two drafts.

[FLPensFan]

Perspective from SJ paper:
https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/03/13/ ... t-benefit/

2 biggest takeaways I got is that Dubas still has the choice, and can send the top 10 pick to SJ in 2024 if he chooses. The 2nd is that he has to do so 24 hours after the draft lottery.

Where this hurts the Penguins is, last year the draft lottery was May 8th. That's before the final teams are even announced...which means the Penguins wouldn't know if they receive Carolina's 2025 pick yet or not by the time they must tell SJ which pick they are getting.

[Antonio]

Thanks for posting. Sharks are in a good spot either way. They should stink next year as well, so they'll have their own 2 top 10 picks and and a decent pick with the Pens' No. 1 one of these two years. Oh, and I forgot they also got a first for Hertl, so they'll have four No. 1 picks total over the next two drafts.

SJ could theoretically turn it around completely in 2 years with a run of luck of quality at the draft. I mean, they could basically field almost two lines of young first round talent if they can find and draft the right players.

[FLPensFan]

Thanks for posting. Sharks are in a good spot either way. They should stink next year as well, so they'll have their own 2 top 10 picks and and a decent pick with the Pens' No. 1 one of these two years. Oh, and I forgot they also got a first for Hertl, so they'll have four No. 1 picks total over the next two drafts.

SJ could theoretically turn it around completely in 2 years with a run of luck of quality at the draft. I mean, they could basically field almost two lines of young first round talent if they can find and draft the right players.

Eh, I think they still have a ways to go. They don't have a young game-breaker yet on their roster. William Eklund is doing well, but I'll need to see another season or two to see if he can continue to elevate his game and production.

Quentin Musty looks to be a good one. 7th overall last year, increased from 78 to 92 points. Not sure if they'd bring him to the NHL next year.
David Edstrom, who they got from Vegas, 32nd overall last year, needs to pan out and come over from Europe. The have a couple other forwards who could be mid-tier guys. But they are relatively weak on younger defense and goaltending.

[thehockeyguru]

Depending on your outlook, this weekend was not good. Just like trading Jake was hard but the right move for the organization, missing the playoffs again will be hard, but is the right step for the organization.

Unfortunately, with that win yesterday, the Penguins are now currently sitting at 11th place in the draft. Not in the playoffs, and not in the draft lottery...which is, about the worst possible position they can be in, organizationally.

The Penguins are 5 and 7 points out of a WC2 and 3rd Metro spot, respectively. As much as I want Sid to have another shot in the playoffs...I wasn't too keen on a Guentzel-filled Penguins success in the post-season. Without him, they are an injury or two away from a largely AHL level lineup.

If they were to finish with the 11th pick I think you have to consider giving it to SJ.

[FLPensFan]

Depending on your outlook, this weekend was not good. Just like trading Jake was hard but the right move for the organization, missing the playoffs again will be hard, but is the right step for the organization.

Unfortunately, with that win yesterday, the Penguins are now currently sitting at 11th place in the draft. Not in the playoffs, and not in the draft lottery...which is, about the worst possible position they can be in, organizationally.

The Penguins are 5 and 7 points out of a WC2 and 3rd Metro spot, respectively. As much as I want Sid to have another shot in the playoffs...I wasn't too keen on a Guentzel-filled Penguins success in the post-season. Without him, they are an injury or two away from a largely AHL level lineup.

If they were to finish with the 11th pick I think you have to consider giving it to SJ.

If they finish with the 11th pick, they MUST give it to SJ. Pick is only top 10 protected.

[Dynasty1970]

Depending on your outlook, this weekend was not good. Just like trading Jake was hard but the right move for the organization, missing the playoffs again will be hard, but is the right step for the organization.

Unfortunately, with that win yesterday, the Penguins are now currently sitting at 11th place in the draft. Not in the playoffs, and not in the draft lottery...which is, about the worst possible position they can be in, organizationally.

The Penguins are 5 and 7 points out of a WC2 and 3rd Metro spot, respectively. As much as I want Sid to have another shot in the playoffs...I wasn't too keen on a Guentzel-filled Penguins success in the post-season. Without him, they are an injury or two away from a largely AHL level lineup.

If they were to finish with the 11th pick I think you have to consider giving it to SJ.

If they finish with the 11th pick, they MUST give it to SJ. Pick is only top 10 protected.

Next year we will be a year older and be that much worse. They need a complete overhaul.

[thehockeyguru]

Depending on your outlook, this weekend was not good. Just like trading Jake was hard but the right move for the organization, missing the playoffs again will be hard, but is the right step for the organization.

Unfortunately, with that win yesterday, the Penguins are now currently sitting at 11th place in the draft. Not in the playoffs, and not in the draft lottery...which is, about the worst possible position they can be in, organizationally.

The Penguins are 5 and 7 points out of a WC2 and 3rd Metro spot, respectively. As much as I want Sid to have another shot in the playoffs...I wasn't too keen on a Guentzel-filled Penguins success in the post-season. Without him, they are an injury or two away from a largely AHL level lineup.

If they were to finish with the 11th pick I think you have to consider giving it to SJ.

If they finish with the 11th pick, they MUST give it to SJ. Pick is only top 10 protected.

Gotcha for some reason I was thinking it was top 12

[FLPensFan]

Depending on your outlook, this weekend was not good. Just like trading Jake was hard but the right move for the organization, missing the playoffs again will be hard, but is the right step for the organization.

Unfortunately, with that win yesterday, the Penguins are now currently sitting at 11th place in the draft. Not in the playoffs, and not in the draft lottery...which is, about the worst possible position they can be in, organizationally.

The Penguins are 5 and 7 points out of a WC2 and 3rd Metro spot, respectively. As much as I want Sid to have another shot in the playoffs...I wasn't too keen on a Guentzel-filled Penguins success in the post-season. Without him, they are an injury or two away from a largely AHL level lineup.

If they were to finish with the 11th pick I think you have to consider giving it to SJ.

If they finish with the 11th pick, they MUST give it to SJ. Pick is only top 10 protected.

Gotcha for some reason I was thinking it was top 12

A lot of times the picks say lottery protected, which I guess now is top 14 the way they do it. I dunno. But this was specifically listed as top 10.

[Pitts]

Since we are talking 2024 v2025 draft. there are currently a lot centers (with size) listed on the top 15 for '25
https://theathletic.com/5326417/2024/03 ... es-hagens/

[Badger Bob]

Hosing for Hagans?

Sorry, couldn't think of a very good synonym for "tanking" that starts with "h".

[Skatingpen]

Freaking Caps……

[stonewizard51]

Hosing for Hagans?

Sorry, couldn't think of a very good synonym for "tanking" that starts with "h".

I'm not sure there are any. Hanging for Hagans ? Hosing works too. LOL

[Three Stars]

Jonesing for James.

[thehockeyguru]

Freaking Caps……

I'd be upset if I was a wings fan. Yzerman sat on his hands at the deadline and rode Lyon into the ground. I understand not wanting to take any big name prospects but they could have easily upgraded their bottom pairing and goaltending.

They are looking like they might waste a great season by Kane

[FLPensFan]

13 games left, 26 points. 95 points is highest total we can get.

Flyers have 79. Magic number (assuming PHI wins tiebreakers) is 16 for 3rd in Metro.
Detroit has 78. Magic number (assuming DET wins tiebreakers) is 17 for WC2 spot.
Tampa has 82. Magic number (assuming TB wins tiebreakers) is 13 for WC1 spot.

[FLPensFan]

13 games left, 26 points. 95 points is highest total we can get.

Flyers have 79. Magic number (assuming PHI wins tiebreakers) is 16 for 3rd in Metro.
Detroit has 78. Magic number (assuming DET wins tiebreakers) is 17 for WC2 spot.
Tampa has 82. Magic number (assuming TB wins tiebreakers) is 13 for WC1 spot.

Flyers beat Boston this afternoon. Magic number down to 14.
Islanders won today. Washington won last night. Detroit playing now. Tampa plays LA tonight.

Getting close to single digit magic numbers for the Penguins.

[Puck-Lurker]

The theoretical chance for the Pens to make the playoffs is now ~1.4%. Give it a couple of days and it'll drop under 1% and maybe media can stop claiming Pens have a great team that might, maybe, somehow still make the playoffs.