The Return of the Playoff Tracker Thread

[offsides]

How the hell is Washington winning games? They're getting zero production from guys like OV, Kuznetsov, Oshie. Their highest point-scorer has 19 points (Strome). I guess Lindgren's been okay in the net, but it's not like their goaltending is world-beating either. Really perplexing how they are pulling out wins. And even worse, seemingly always giving up a loser point to a Metro team in the process.

Kind of weird for sure. They have the fewest amount of goals scored in the Eastern Conference (73 goals scored, PIT and MTL are 2nd lowest tied at 87 goals scored). Looking through their games, most of their losses they've scored only 0 or 1 goal. They have 9 games lost where they scored 0 or 1 goal.

Yeah I watched the Caps win in OT last night and couldn't believe when they announced the Caps PP was the worst in the league and the Great 8 has 5 goals so far and 2 are empty netters but some how they have more points than us. To me Ovechkin looked a lot like Carter moving around on the ice but some of the young skaters looked pretty good.

[Antonio]

Really surprised at how much he has fallen off production wise...I wonder, could he not hit the goal record? I mean, I know he will play until he is 70 if he has to...but he is on pace for 14g this year. I am sure that will eventually break though.

[FLPensFan]

Really surprised at how much he has fallen off production wise...I wonder, could he not hit the goal record? I mean, I know he will play until he is 70 if he has to...but he is on pace for 14g this year. I am sure that will eventually break though.

Let's say he hits 20 goals this year. He has 2 years left on his contract. 20 goals gets him to 842, still 50 goals short of Gretzky. He'd need to average 26 goals in those last 2 seasons to catch him. He may have to sign another 1 year deal to get it done.

[yinzer69]

Mathematically we were already sunk over a month ago, when we were at like a historical 14 percent chance of making the playoffs or so. Come onnnnnn Sid... 600 1000 1600. All I care about at this point. Otherwise, until they get rid of King Moron behind the bench, I want them to lose every night. Anything else prolongs the inevitable.

King Moron-that is some hard hitting analysis there. I am sure any well respected GM would immediately fire Sullivan if they knew his nickname was King Moron.

[Maestro]

Ovechkin is the Tiger Woods of hockey.

[Puck-Lurker]

We're not drowning yet, but we're not gaining ground either. We're in a lifeboat trying to get back on board a ship that might be impossible to save. Need to keep winning.

Code: Select all

### GP |  W |  L | OT | Pt |   P% |  GD
WSH 30 | 17 |  9 |  4 | 38 | .633 |  -8
CAR 33 | 17 | 12 |  4 | 38 | .576 |  +2
---------------------------------------
TBL 34 | 16 | 13 |  5 | 37 | .544 |  -3
NJD 31 | 16 | 13 |  2 | 34 | .548 |  -7
DET 31 | 16 | 13 |  4 | 34 | .531 |  +8
PIT 31 | 15 | 13 |  3 | 33 | .532 |  +4
MTL 32 | 14 | 13 |  5 | 33 | .516 | -20
BUF 34 | 14 | 17 |  3 | 31 | .456 | -14
CBJ 34 | 11 | 17 |  6 | 28 | .412 | -17
OTT 28 | 11 | 17 |  0 | 22 | .393 |  -4

[Badger Bob]

They need a long long win streak and I can't see that happening.

[Antonio]

Really surprised at how much he has fallen off production wise...I wonder, could he not hit the goal record? I mean, I know he will play until he is 70 if he has to...but he is on pace for 14g this year. I am sure that will eventually break though.

Let's say he hits 20 goals this year. He has 2 years left on his contract. 20 goals gets him to 842, still 50 goals short of Gretzky. He'd need to average 26 goals in those last 2 seasons to catch him. He may have to sign another 1 year deal to get it done.

I feel conflicted...I know he will hit it so it is immaterial, but part of me wants him to fail. I think he is the greatest pure goal scorer ever and deserves the record, but...I don't know....the Caps I guess.

[FLPensFan]

They need a long long win streak and I can't see that happening.

Even that isn't a guarantee to help us. Say the Penguins go 7-3 over their next 10 games. That's pretty solid. But you need Carolina and Washington to falter during that same time period. That's the challenge when you get even 5 or more points behind...you need to get hot AND the other teams to get cold at the same time.

Difficult to pull off.

[KG]

Washington will start to come down to earth. Detroit already has. Philly will regress now that teams know they aren't going to be a pushover. Still a lot of hockey to be played. There is a wildcard spot for the taking if they play the way they're capable of. We also have 3 games in hand on Tampa. The east is going to be a battle to end.

[Dynasty1970]

How the hell is Washington winning games? They're getting zero production from guys like OV, Kuznetsov, Oshie. Their highest point-scorer has 19 points (Strome). I guess Lindgren's been okay in the net, but it's not like their goaltending is world-beating either. Really perplexing how they are pulling out wins. And even worse, seemingly always giving up a loser point to a Metro team in the process.

Kind of weird for sure. They have the fewest amount of goals scored in the Eastern Conference (73 goals scored, PIT and MTL are 2nd lowest tied at 87 goals scored). Looking through their games, most of their losses they've scored only 0 or 1 goal. They have 9 games lost where they scored 0 or 1 goal.

Yeah I watched the Caps win in OT last night and couldn't believe when they announced the Caps PP was the worst in the league and the Great 8 has 5 goals so far and 2 are empty netters but some how they have more points than us. To me Ovechkin looked a lot like Carter moving around on the ice but some of the young skaters looked pretty good.

MUST BE THE COACHING STAFF!

[Admin]

Not sure on the math but this site says there's currently a 60% chance the Pens don't make the playoffs.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/penguinsstandings.html

[Puck-Lurker]

Not sure on the math but this site says there's currently a 60% chance the Pens don't make the playoffs.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/penguinsstandings.html

The math check out.

The only (rather obvious) caveat is that it makes the assumption that the relative strengths of the teams remain as they are; and the sample size is still only 30-something games. If a team gets on a hot streak and another stalls, the percentages can shift rather violently.

If anything the 20% (M1-2-3), 20% (WC1-2), 60% (no playoffs) distribution looks rather too cheerful. My guesstimate would've been something like 5-15-80%.

These next 10 games should tell us where we're going this year.
OTT, NYI, STL, NYI, WSH, BOS, BUF, PHI, VAN

For a realistic path towards the playoffs, I figure we need 6-7 wins?

[Badger Bob]

Let's hope the Pens take care of the lowly Sens before they're off for a few days for Christmas. Would be nice to win 5 of the last 6 games. They still have a long way to climb back into the playoff hunt, but at least they are trending up for now.

[FLPensFan]

As of today, December 29th....

Islanders in WC1 spot, 34 games played, 41 points, 6-2-2 in their last 10
Devils in WC2 spot, 34 games, played, 40 points, 6-3-1 in their last 10
Capitals are 1 point behind WC2 spot, but have only played 32 games. 5-2-3 in their last 10

The Penguins have 36 points, 4 points out of WC2 spot, 5 points out of WC1 spot. The Penguins have 1 game in hand on both WC teams, and are 5-3-2.

Over the last 10 games, their are 5 teams above them in the WC race (including the 2 currently holding those spots). Only Detroit (3-7) has attained fewer points than the Penguins in their last 10 games. The other 4 teams above them have matched or exceed the Penguins point total over their last 10 games.

The Penguins have gained 2 points on WC2 spot in 18 days, and 1 point on WC1 spot over that same time period.

[KG]

I was at the Isles/Caps game tonight. Caps will quickly fade away if they continue to play like they did tonight!. Nothing from them all game.

[pronovost19]

As of today, December 29th....

Islanders in WC1 spot, 34 games played, 41 points, 6-2-2 in their last 10
Devils in WC2 spot, 34 games, played, 40 points, 6-3-1 in their last 10
Capitals are 1 point behind WC2 spot, but have only played 32 games. 5-2-3 in their last 10

The Penguins have 36 points, 4 points out of WC2 spot, 5 points out of WC1 spot. The Penguins have 1 game in hand on both WC teams, and are 5-3-2.

Over the last 10 games, their are 5 teams above them in the WC race (including the 2 currently holding those spots). Only Detroit (3-7) has attained fewer points than the Penguins in their last 10 games. The other 4 teams above them have matched or exceed the Penguins point total over their last 10 games.

The Penguins have gained 2 points on WC2 spot in 18 days, and 1 point on WC1 spot over that same time period.

The 3 point games make it harder to catch up than back when everyone got a point for mediocrity.

[FLPensFan]

After the win vs the Islanders tonight, the Penguins are now 3 points behind the Islanders for WC1 spot with 1 game in hand.
The Penguins (40 points) are now 1 point behind Tampa for WC2 spot, and the Penguins have 3 games in hand on Tampa.
Washington (40 points) is also 1 point behind Tampa for WC2 spot, and they have 4 games in hand on Tampa.
New Jersey (40 points) is also 1 point behind Tampa for WC2 spot, and they have 3 games in hand on Tampa.

Tuesday and Wednesday night will be 2 more big games. Penguins need to beat the Capitals Tuesday. Then Wednesday, the Capitals and Devils play each other. A regulation win for one of those teams would be helpful to the Penguins.

[Puck-Lurker]

Taking a look at the point percentages and the past decade (ignoring lockout and covid seasons).

.561 is the absolute floor for WC2, requiring 92 points over 82 games (2023 and 2021)
.610 is the ceiling for WC2, requiring 100 points (2022)
.585 or 96 points is the highest teams have got, while still missing the playoffs. (Mathematically pleasantly situated exactly between the two!)

With teams close as they are in the east as they are now, error bars shift towards the lower end being required. Good news! Penguins are on track for making the playoffs at WC2! Bad news: but so are six other teams.. Good news: they are also to some degree in the race for M2, M3 and WC1.

Musical chairs where at least three of Pens, Caps, Flyers, Canes, Isles, Devils and Lightning don't make it. All the important ones in our division (which is crazy to me). We have 12 games against these teams left by my count spread somewhat evenly across the remainder of the season and have a slight plus against them so far.


TLDR just need to keep this average pace or better and we're in the playoffs.

[pronovost19]

Taking a look at the point percentages and the past decade (ignoring lockout and covid seasons).

.561 is the absolute floor for WC2, requiring 92 points over 82 games (2023 and 2021)
.610 is the ceiling for WC2, requiring 100 points (2022)
.585 or 96 points is the highest teams have got, while still missing the playoffs. (Mathematically pleasantly situated exactly between the two!)

With teams close as they are in the east as they are now, error bars shift towards the lower end being required. Good news! Penguins are on track for making the playoffs at WC2! Bad news: but so are six other teams.. Good news: they are also to some degree in the race for M2, M3 and WC1.

Musical chairs where at least three of Pens, Caps, Flyers, Canes, Isles, Devils and Lightning don't make it. All the important ones in our division (which is crazy to me). We have 12 games against these teams left by my count spread somewhat evenly across the remainder of the season and have a slight plus against them so far.


TLDR just need to keep this average pace or better and we're in the playoffs.

Very good analysis. I think right now based on performance, I would predict the following numbers to each of those teams.

Penguins 96 in wc1
Detroit 88 out
Tampa 89 out
Capitals 87 out
Flyers 97 in m2 or m3
Hurricanes 97 in m2 or m3
Islanders 93 in wc2
Devils 92 out at the bottom of your threshold

Thus, in this model, Tampa, Detroit, New Jersey and Washington would miss the playoffs.

The others:
Bruins 108
Leafs 96
Panthers 102
Rangers 112

First round matchups:

Wc2 Islanders vs M1 Rangers
A3 Leafs vs A2 Panthers
M2/M3 Hurricanes vs M2/M3 Flyers
WC1 Penguins vs A1 Bruins

Now, there are a few monkey wrenches in this model. The Isles have 9 loser points and could easily falter down the stretch.
Injuries are not factored in these predictions. That is why it is essential that we have two goalies that can compete moving forward.

Anyways, that is my take FWIW.

[FLPensFan]

I'm still a bit stumped by the Penguins current success. Since December 1st...
--They've gone 7-3-3, .567 winning percentage.
--They've scored 36 goals, which is 28th overall in Goals For
--They've given up 35 goals, which is 9th overall in Goals Against
--Their PP is at 15.1%, 26th overall
--Their PK is 79.1%, 19th overall

So the overall stats aren't really showing some great improve. From October to November 30th, they were scoring more goals per game, their PK was better, and they were a little bit better in Goals Against per game.

I'd have to dig into some numbers more, like opponent record and such. It's good to see them gaining ground on a playoff spot, but...some of the numbers aren't showing a trend in the right direction...which leads me to believe this could flip back into the sub 500 team.

[Antonio]

Yeah I have seen very little that tells me this is indicative of any real change. Glad they've won a few but I don't see any basis for believing real improvement has happened. Take out the chili against nyi and they're still well upside down gf ga. I mean, I think it's just sometimes you come out on the right side of a coin toss a few times and I think that's what it's been. A few coin tosses in their favor, but I don't think they're stacking the odds in their favor with great performances.

[largegarlic]

I'm happy the Pens are doing better, and I'll take the glass-half-full approach and choose to believe it is more sustainable. I think they are better defensively than early in the season, and while the PP is still frustrating, it is showing a pulse. And the bottom 6, while still not as productive as we'd like, is also showing some offensive pulse.

That said, I think a problem for the Pens' playoff chances is that NJ is also sitting just out of a playoff spot. I haven't watched them much, but just looking at the stats, it seems like their goaltending has been pretty bad. On paper, they should be in the playoffs. If their goaltending trends up a bit, and they start to turn it on, the Pens will need another current playoff team to fade besides the Isles (the mostly likely to drop out, I think). Hopefully, that's Philly, but we'll have to see.

[FLPensFan]

Penguins are currently 1 point out of both WC spots, with 1 game in hand on Detroit (WC1 spot) and 2 games in hand on Tampa (WC2 spot).

The Islanders are tied with Pittsburgh with 48 points, but the Penguins have a game in hand on the Isles as well.
New Jersey is 1 point behind the Penguins, with a game in hand on Pittsburgh.
Washington is 2 points behind the Penguins, with a game in hand on Pittsburgh.

[Badger Bob]

Log Jam.