How do we turn ship around?

[IntangibleBeer]

.
.
.

I would say the current LA method is a failure, and shows why you are better off completely bombing out, getting a few top 5 draft picks in a row, and rebuilding from there. But the other caution is, you MUST HIT on those draft picks. You cannot afford to draft the Daigle and Yakupov types that have failed, or even the guys that are middle 6ers. I have this experience with Florida...Steven Weiss, Nathan Horton, Boumeester...high draft picks, good players, but not good enough to rebuild your franchise. It wasn't until they drafted Huberdeau, Barkov, Markstrom, and Ekblad that they found a core that mostly worked, and allowed them to trade for other pieces.

3-5 years of lottery picks, with at least 3 years in the top 5 is going to be needed for the Penguins.

It seems to me that the Pens scouting group needs a serious upgrade, too. Don't you think?

[Daniel]

They turn the ship around by finishing in the lottery for a few years.

Can anyone point out an example of a team that successfully retooled and became an actual contender after two years of missing the playoffs in the salary cap era?

Verdict is still out on LA right now. They last won the Cup in 2013-2014. They have a 2nd overall (Byfield), a 5th overall (Turcotte), an 8th overall (Clarke) and an 11th overall (Villardi).

Since that Cup victory, they have drafted 14 players with at least 100 NHL games played. 5 of them were drafted beyond round 3. 6 players drafted have played more than 200 games.

Now, none of these players is an elite level player. Byfield right now is likely the best, and Brandt Clarke maybe 2nd.

LA seems like they are going to teeter on being a playoff team but never good enough to be back to a strong contender. Since their Cup win, they have missed the playoffs 5 times, but a string of 3 playoff misses was the longest. They've been bounced in the 1st round 4 times as well.

LA seems to have a better record of at least drafting usable NHL talent. That doesn't mean that they drafting elite top 6/top 4 guys, but they are hitting on a lot more than the Penguins.

I would say the current LA method is a failure, and shows why you are better off completely bombing out, getting a few top 5 draft picks in a row, and rebuilding from there. But the other caution is, you MUST HIT on those draft picks. You cannot afford to draft the Daigle and Yakupov types that have failed, or even the guys that are middle 6ers. I have this experience with Florida...Steven Weiss, Nathan Horton, Boumeester...high draft picks, good players, but not good enough to rebuild your franchise. It wasn't until they drafted Huberdeau, Barkov, Markstrom, and Ekblad that they found a core that mostly worked, and allowed them to trade for other pieces.

3-5 years of lottery picks, with at least 3 years in the top 5 is going to be needed for the Penguins.

I think Tampa Bay is a good example of how to have long term success without making the playoffs during that entire stretch.

From 2004 through 2022

2004 - 30
2005 - 30
2006 - 15
2008 - 1
2009 - 2
2010 - 6
2011 - 27
2012 - 10
2013 - 3
2014 - 19
2016 - 27
2017 - 14
2019 - 27
2022 - 31

Notice they have kept most of their 1st round picks during this stretch and there is an ebb and flow with winning with a few years of losing mixed in between.

[Daniel]

.
.
.

I would say the current LA method is a failure, and shows why you are better off completely bombing out, getting a few top 5 draft picks in a row, and rebuilding from there. But the other caution is, you MUST HIT on those draft picks. You cannot afford to draft the Daigle and Yakupov types that have failed, or even the guys that are middle 6ers. I have this experience with Florida...Steven Weiss, Nathan Horton, Boumeester...high draft picks, good players, but not good enough to rebuild your franchise. It wasn't until they drafted Huberdeau, Barkov, Markstrom, and Ekblad that they found a core that mostly worked, and allowed them to trade for other pieces.

3-5 years of lottery picks, with at least 3 years in the top 5 is going to be needed for the Penguins.

It seems to me that the Pens scouting group needs a serious upgrade, too. Don't you think?

I won't say the scouting department is top notch, but I think it's more about development and opportunity than anything else. Doesn't matter who you draft if you go into training camp with a full roster and no competition. The idea of 'well it's just the league minimum and they can be cut" doesn't fly if they never get cut and the roster is built based on waiver eligibility.

[dark_forces]

Looking strictly at UFAs if Dubas could move out Smith I'd target Debrusk, Duclair and Mantha.

Bunting Crosby Rust
Duclair Malkin Debrusk
Rakell Eller Mantha
DOC Accari Puljujarvi

• Assuming, Smith is dealt for a pick, I would go after free agents DeBrusk and Teravainen (who can also switch to center) to add to the forward core.

• Re-sign Nedeljkovic to a 1-year extension for 2 million.

• Sign a less expensive veteran defenseman (like Jani Hakanpaa) to push Ludvig and/or POJ.

• Deal Nieto for a late round pick this offseason.

• Hope dearly that Graves regains his previous career form.

DeBrusk-Crosby-Rakell
Teravainen-Malkin-Rust
Bunting-Eller-DOC
Puljujärvi-Poulin-Acciari
x-Ponomarev, Puustinen

Pettersson-Karlsson
Graves-Letang
Ludvig-Hakanpaa
x-POJ

Jarry
Ned

[Three Stars]

They turn the ship around by finishing in the lottery for a few years.

Can anyone point out an example of a team that successfully retooled and became an actual contender after two years of missing the playoffs in the salary cap era?

Tampa Bay comes the closest by winning the cup in 2003-04, missing the playoffs 3 straight years from 2007-08 to 2009-10 then another cup in 2016-17 and winning in 2019-20 and 2020-21. It's hard to do but not impossible.

Uh, I’m pretty sure that Tampa Bay didn’t win the Cup in 2016-17.

The other thing is that I said two years, not 15. Waiting 15 years between Cups is not unusual. That’s plenty of time to turn over your entire roster.

[Daniel]

They turn the ship around by finishing in the lottery for a few years.

Can anyone point out an example of a team that successfully retooled and became an actual contender after two years of missing the playoffs in the salary cap era?

Tampa Bay comes the closest by winning the cup in 2003-04, missing the playoffs 3 straight years from 2007-08 to 2009-10 then another cup in 2016-17 and winning in 2019-20 and 2020-21. It's hard to do but not impossible.

Uh, I’m pretty sure that Tampa Bay didn’t win the Cup in 2016-17.

The other thing is that I said two years, not 15. Waiting 15 years between Cups is not unusual. That’s plenty of time to turn over your entire roster.

They missed the playoffs that year.

[KG]

Looking strictly at UFAs if Dubas could move out Smith I'd target Debrusk, Duclair and Mantha.

Bunting Crosby Rust
Duclair Malkin Debrusk
Rakell Eller Mantha
DOC Accari Puljujarvi

• Assuming, Smith is dealt for a pick, I would go after free agents DeBrusk and Teravainen (who can also switch to center) to add to the forward core.

• Re-sign Nedeljkovic to a 1-year extension for 2 million.

• Sign a less expensive veteran defenseman (like Jani Hakanpaa) to push Ludvig and/or POJ.

• Deal Nieto for a late round pick this offseason.

• Hope dearly that Graves regains his previous career form.

DeBrusk-Crosby-Rakell
Teravainen-Malkin-Rust
Bunting-Eller-DOC
Puljujärvi-Poulin-Acciari
x-Ponomarev, Puustinen

Pettersson-Karlsson
Graves-Letang
Ludvig-Hakanpaa
x-POJ

Jarry
Ned

Nicely done. With a new coach, this should be a playoff team next season.

[Three Stars]

They turn the ship around by finishing in the lottery for a few years.

Can anyone point out an example of a team that successfully retooled and became an actual contender after two years of missing the playoffs in the salary cap era?

Tampa Bay comes the closest by winning the cup in 2003-04, missing the playoffs 3 straight years from 2007-08 to 2009-10 then another cup in 2016-17 and winning in 2019-20 and 2020-21. It's hard to do but not impossible.

Uh, I’m pretty sure that Tampa Bay didn’t win the Cup in 2016-17.

The other thing is that I said two years, not 15. Waiting 15 years between Cups is not unusual. That’s plenty of time to turn over your entire roster.

They missed the playoffs that year.

You wrote “then another cup in 2016-17”.

[Daniel]

They turn the ship around by finishing in the lottery for a few years.

Can anyone point out an example of a team that successfully retooled and became an actual contender after two years of missing the playoffs in the salary cap era?

Tampa Bay comes the closest by winning the cup in 2003-04, missing the playoffs 3 straight years from 2007-08 to 2009-10 then another cup in 2016-17 and winning in 2019-20 and 2020-21. It's hard to do but not impossible.

Uh, I’m pretty sure that Tampa Bay didn’t win the Cup in 2016-17.

The other thing is that I said two years, not 15. Waiting 15 years between Cups is not unusual. That’s plenty of time to turn over your entire roster.

They missed the playoffs that year.

You wrote “then another cup in 2016-17”.

Yes I know, I didn't notice the editing before I posted it, I can edit it now if you like

[Daniel]

They turn the ship around by finishing in the lottery for a few years.

Can anyone point out an example of a team that successfully retooled and became an actual contender after two years of missing the playoffs in the salary cap era?

Tampa Bay comes the closest by winning the cup in 2003-04, missing the playoffs 3 straight years from 2007-08 to 2009-10 then another cup in 2016-17 and winning in 2019-20 and 2020-21. It's hard to do but not impossible.

Uh, I’m pretty sure that Tampa Bay didn’t win the Cup in 2016-17.

The other thing is that I said two years, not 15. Waiting 15 years between Cups is not unusual. That’s plenty of time to turn over your entire roster.

Your original question is about becoming an actual contender after missing the playoffs for two years. I think Tampa Bay qualifies. They missed the playoffs 5 out of 6 years, the other year they lost in the Conference Finals, which I would consider that a year of being a contender. 2014-15 and 2015-16 they were a contender, missed the playoffs in 2016-17 then have been a contender ever since. They've been contender and not contender for 20 years and they really retooled rather than a complete rebuild (judging by the 1st round draft pick slots).

[BigMcK]

Simple 2 step process:

1. New coach
2. New players

I was thinking the same thing. You beat me to it.

Hire better players because this group of misfits can't even follow the simple coaching game plans from years ago.

[E-Ramone]

The way this team looks right now, I am not sure anything can help them. That is one dysfunctional organization. Not sure how the culture could have changed this drastically, this quickly

FSG?

False.

“At Fenway Sports Group (FSG), we have a 20-year track record of taking cherished and iconic clubs to new heights.”

https://fenwaysportsgroup.com/

Has to be true if it’s on the Internet.

Maybe by heights they meant lows?

This team needs to have Mario around to succeed apparently. We turn into a pumpkin without him.

[Skatingpen]

I do miss Mario

[Admin]

Mario was at today’s game.

https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pen ... 2403040122

[KG]

Wonder if KD would look to move Pickering for a young forward that is either already playing or close to playing? Doesn't look like he's trending to be a top pairing D man. Maybe trade him while his value is relatively high?

[FLPensFan]

Here's my plan on turning the team around. I'm going to save coaching for last

First let's take a look at what is returning next year:

Rakell-Crosby-Rust
Smith-Malkin-X
X-X-X
Nieto-Eller-Acciari

MP-Letang
Graves-EK65
X-X

Jarry
X

From this point, we need to decide who to re-sign, who to let go, and who to maybe trade:
--UFAs to let walk: Carter, Harkins
--UFAs to re-sign: Nedeljkovic
--RFAs to re-sign: POJ, Gruden, Puustinen, Bemstrom, St. Ivany, Rathbone, Samorukov, Cajkovic, Hamaliuk
--Prospects who should be added to WBS/Wheeling: Pickering, Yoder, Tankov?, Koivunen, Ponomaryov
--On the fence: Andonovski (RFA), Hinostroza (UFA), Zohorna (UFA), Shea (UFA), Fedun (UFA), Ouelett (UFA)

Of the on the fence guys, I don't think all of them should be brought back, but we are going to need some experienced depth in WBS. So it really comes down to who comes in as prospects, who else is an upgrade as veteran depth on the market. Once that is figured out, we can determine who of the on the fence guys we bring back.

Key decisions for the big club:

1) They need to allow competition for some roster spots. We cannot go into the season gifting Nieto or others a guaranteed starting spot. We are going to need to see DOC, Poulin, Puustinen, Puljujarvi, and Bemstrom fighting for some spots. I don't think it is wise to have all 5 of those players in the lineup every night. I'd like to see Nieto waived, traded, or sent to WBS. He was an utter disappointment what little time he was here. STOP HANGING ONTO GUYS JUST BECAUSE YOU THINK THEY PK WELL.

2) Revisit trading one of Rust, Smith, or Rakell. The latter two seem more probably. Rust would be better suited for next summer, after his NMC clause expires. Up front, the team is in need of two general asset types: Skilled youth, and skilled physical players (or at least some with size). I think this is where Dubas needs to try and move a something like Smith and Koivunen to Arizona for a player like Jack McBain and a pick. McBain hits, has size, PKs, is good defensively, and can play C/W in the bottom 6. Something like Pouiln-McBain-Puustinen/Puljujarvi would be a solid 3rd line next year.

3) Reworking the defense. They are going to have to give Graves a chance. Hopefully, this is part of first year system issues that has affected some good players like Gonchar and Martin in the past. They don't need a huge overhaul, though. For as much we gripe and complain about the boneheaded mistakes, this team was still 2nd overall in lowest Goal Against on February 1st and 6th overall in GA/game at 2.70. We have dropped to 10th overall in lowest GA and GA/game. From Feb 1 to today, 17 games, we have given up the 2nd most goals in the league, 58 GA in 17 games, 3.41 GA per game, 23rd worst. It was working. We need to rework the bottom pair. The team needs to determine if POJ has plateaued or if he can still improve. They should give a guy like Jack St. Ivany a look on 3rd pair RD.

4) Coaching staff. Dubas should require Sullivan to work with a PP specialist not Reirden, or outright fire Reirden. The PP has not significantly improved. From Feb 1st to today, it is clicking at 18.6%, which is 23rd over that time period. It's moved a little from the rock bottom next to last it was, but it needs to be much, much better. Dubas needs to decide if there is a coaching problem or a player problem. I think it is a bit of both, and I think Dubas believes Sullivan is a good coach, even if he isn't "a good coach for this current team." I think that is his hesitancy right now. He doesn't want to fire Sullivan and see him go elsewhere, when in another 3 years or so, the core may be gone and he has faith that Sullivan will be better. I'm 50/50 as to whether Dubas pulls the cord on Sullivan. I'd probably bet that he doesn't, but he has a short leash to start the season.

[FLPensFan]

Wonder if KD would look to move Pickering for a young forward that is either already playing or close to playing? Doesn't look like he's trending to be a top pairing D man. Maybe trade him while his value is relatively high?

I think he would. It's the same thing I said earlier about someone, maybe Pinto. I'd trade Brayden Yager and a pick for Pinto if OTT would take that offer. I'd trade Pickering and a pick as well.

Pinto is only 23. He shows signs of being a solid middle 6 guy. You'd hate to lose Yager, but he's still 2-3 years away. If I can get a known quantity, good young player like Pinto, who scored 20 goals last year...these are the types of shrewd deals Dubas is going to have to make. Sure, you give up a 19 year old kid...but, we still don't know if Yager will be good at the NHL level. If I can trade a good prospect for an under 24 NHLer that I know can produce and has upside, I make that trade every time....unless there is a high probability that prospect is near can't-miss 1st line, top pairing prospect.

[Cow_Master66]

So looking into the offseason we have 16 players signed with $14M to spend.

If we can move Riley Smith that would be another $5M to spend with a roster of 15 guys.

Who can we get so this team can compete next season? One person that comes to mind for me is Jake Debrusk. Thoughts on anyone else?

They can’t compete next season. The best approach would be to collect young players and picks however possible, clear salary, and build towards 2-3 years from now.

[Three Stars]

I wouldn’t…bet…on Shane Pinto being a good enough reason to dump the Penguins’ top prospect.

Trying to fix next year is difficult and dangerous. Trying to fix 2-3 years from now by letting the prospects mature actually seems a safer bet.

[DelPen]

I wouldn’t…bet…on Shane Pinto being a good enough reason to dump the Penguins’ top prospect.

Trying to fix next year is difficult and dangerous. Trying to fix 2-3 years from now by letting the prospects mature actually seems a safer bet.

And even then it will be hard. I look at the Rangers who did a rebuild but they got lucky with Shisterkin to carry the team to get them back to top of the division early. I think we are in year two of at least 4 until this is back to good. That will coincidentally be when Malkin’s deal is up too.

[Ericf]

Wonder if KD would look to move Pickering for a young forward that is either already playing or close to playing? Doesn't look like he's trending to be a top pairing D man. Maybe trade him while his value is relatively high?

I think he would. It's the same thing I said earlier about someone, maybe Pinto. I'd trade Brayden Yager and a pick for Pinto if OTT would take that offer. I'd trade Pickering and a pick as well.

Pinto is only 23. He shows signs of being a solid middle 6 guy. You'd hate to lose Yager, but he's still 2-3 years away. If I can get a known quantity, good young player like Pinto, who scored 20 goals last year...these are the types of shrewd deals Dubas is going to have to make. Sure, you give up a 19 year old kid...but, we still don't know if Yager will be good at the NHL level. If I can trade a good prospect for an under 24 NHLer that I know can produce and has upside, I make that trade every time....unless there is a high probability that prospect is near can't-miss 1st line, top pairing prospect.

I like Pinto as well but I definitely wouldn’t trade Yager for him. Or Blomqvist. I would trade Pickering or any of the players we received in the Guentzel trade.

[FLPensFan]

Wonder if KD would look to move Pickering for a young forward that is either already playing or close to playing? Doesn't look like he's trending to be a top pairing D man. Maybe trade him while his value is relatively high?

I think he would. It's the same thing I said earlier about someone, maybe Pinto. I'd trade Brayden Yager and a pick for Pinto if OTT would take that offer. I'd trade Pickering and a pick as well.

Pinto is only 23. He shows signs of being a solid middle 6 guy. You'd hate to lose Yager, but he's still 2-3 years away. If I can get a known quantity, good young player like Pinto, who scored 20 goals last year...these are the types of shrewd deals Dubas is going to have to make. Sure, you give up a 19 year old kid...but, we still don't know if Yager will be good at the NHL level. If I can trade a good prospect for an under 24 NHLer that I know can produce and has upside, I make that trade every time....unless there is a high probability that prospect is near can't-miss 1st line, top pairing prospect.

I like Pinto as well but I definitely wouldn’t trade Yager for him. Or Blomqvist. I would trade Pickering or any of the players we received in the Guentzel trade.

You guys gotta understand. Yager, Pickering, Blomqvist...none of them are A-level prospects. There's a reason why we are ranked in the high 20s. We don't have any A level prospects.

The Athletic ranks the top 22 and under prospects every year.
--Yager was ranked 103rd
--Pickering was ranked 89th
--Blomqvist isn't even listed
Those were our only 2 prospects.

A level prospects are guys like Bedard, Fantilli, Michkov, Carlsson, Cozens, Boldy, Beniers...those are A level guys. We have none.

This isn't just The Athletic. You go over to Dobber prospects. They ranked the top 200 FORWARDS. Their age range is a bit bigger, and they are more focused on fantasy draft value in a keeper league. But, a guy like Michkov, who isn't even in North America yet, ranks 4th. Puustinen was ranked 76th. Yager was next at 114th, followed by Nylander at 115, Poulin at 123, and Broz at 199.

So again, when people sit here and say "Ah, there's no way I'm giving up that guy. He's our top prospect." There is a big gap between OUR top prospect. BUF was ranked #1 prospect pool by the Athletic. Their top 5 prospects were Zach Benson, Matthew Savoie, Jiri Kulich, Devon Levi, and Noah Ostlund.

In the Athletic's 22 and under list, Benson ranked 50th, Kulich 54th, Ostlund 96th, Savoie 101st, Levi 156th. Now, you look at Carolina's prospect pool, which is ranked 13th. None of the guys we got in the Guentzel trade made this list.

I'm not saying this list, or Dobber's list is the be all end all most accurate list. But when you see multiple lists that your prospects are well near the bottom, or aren't even on the list. Most of us over value our prospects.

My point here is, a guy like Pinto has made it to the NHL and put up a 20 goal season last year. He's only 23. You can take the 23 year old who has shown he can play in this league and put up very respectable numbers...or you can wait 3 years and hope Yager's trajectory continues, the rest of his game is NHL-level suitable, and his Junior level success translates to NHL level success.

There's a lot of IFS and HOPE in doing that.

[Dynasty1970]

The gig is up…..let Crosby chase a cup with McKinnon.

[BigMcK]

Younger. Young players. Younger.

Just curious if anyone can provide the average age of the 91, 92, 09, 16, 17 players to win the Cup. Individually per year, and then collectively overall.

I am going to guess the average age per each season, and over the five seasons, is 27 years old. 16, 17, will probably be 28 years old average.

A rebuild is to go full-tilt with youth. Retool is about ejecting older players in favor of younger players, right? I rebuild around Crosby within the sweet spot of age. 27, 28 years old average?

[FLPensFan]

Younger. Young players. Younger.

Just curious if anyone can provide the average age of the 91, 92, 09, 16, 17 players to win the Cup. Individually per year, and then collectively overall.

I am going to guess the average age per each season, and over the five seasons, is 27 years old. 16, 17, will probably be 28 years old average.

A rebuild is to go full-tilt with youth. Retool is about ejecting older players in favor of younger players, right? I rebuild around Crosby within the sweet spot of age. 27, 28 years old average?

Can you clarify what you mean by individually per year, and collectively overall? I can grab this data pretty easily I think, but it's late and I don't fully understand what you are wanting to differentiate here.