Remember when I said a couple of days ago to watch Italian bond market for an indication?
Well... Today's the first day an Italian is in charge of the ECB and the ECB is losing the battle with the Italian bond market.
This week is the G20 as well.
I'm staying on the sidelines... These swings could ruin you if you call them wrong. I have no faith in the ECB.
November 15 TH the Greeks have a debt payment due, and I can't figure out where they're planning on getting the money.
I'm pretty sure the next intervention is Euro-Yen. But if that's the case the Japanese will buy quality German Bund debt. That will make the situation even worse.
The Italian 10 year bond market is going to be toast. Wow.
Last edited by ExPatriatePen on Tue Nov 01, 2011 11:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
Remember when I said a couple of days ago to watch Italian bond market for an indication?
Well... Today's the first day an Italian is in charge of the ECB and the ECB is losing the battle with the Italian bond market.
This week is the G20 as well.
I'm staying on the sidelines... These swings could ruin you if you call them wrong. I have no faith in the ECB.
November 15 TH the Greeks have a debt payment due, and I can't figure out where they're planning on getting the money.
How much time do you spend watching CNBC?
Or do you track this through a broker app?
Read Barrons every weekend.
Read the WSJ everyday before the market opens
Walk around with a copy of the FT tucked under my arm.
Listen to Bloomberg radio every morning while I have my coffee (black)
Glued to CNBC/HD
Bloomberg SD on beside it with the volume down.
One monitor is on LGP, the other tracks Seeking Alpha. The iPad runs a CNBC app.
Plus an Interactive brokers account plus a fidelity account.
Big time FOMC meeting started this morning. EPP your Euro vs. Cad is looking nice. I don't follow the CAD too closely, but almost a 4% change for EUR vs USD since Thursday. See what happens with this meeting and if Fed signals more QE (I doubt it) but I don't expect the EUR to rebound anytime soon.
The Fed has a two-day meeting, (but it didn't start today did it? Edit: it does begin today, I thought that it started tomorrow) you're right. I don't don't think there will be any QE3 and anything the fed does will be squarely focused on driving down 30 year mortgage rates (no they haven't learned)
Greece is completely toast though. Greek inflation over the next few years (assuming they are dropped from the ECU) will be astronomical.
I'm just in awe right now at what's happening. Just like the financial crisis of 2008, I expected it, but the degree of carnage I think will surprise me again. (and many others)
The Fed has a two-day meeting, (but it didn't start today did it? Edit: it does begin today, I thought that it started tomorrow) you're right. I don't don't think there will be any QE3 and anything the fed does will be squarely focused on driving down 30 year mortgage rates (no they haven't learned)
Greece is completely toast though. Greek inflation over the next few years (assuming they are dropped from the ECU) will be astronomical.
I'm just in awe right now at what's happening. Just like the financial crisis of 2008, I expected it, but the degree of carnage I think will surprise me again. (and many others)
It's only a matter of time I think before Greece is booted. What is your best guess on when that could be? It was funny when they came out of the summit Thursday (or wednesday) with this brilliant plan, sending the EUR soaring. Two days later investors realize Greece still doesnt stand a chance. They lose it all, plus some.
The Fed has a two-day meeting, (but it didn't start today did it? Edit: it does begin today, I thought that it started tomorrow) you're right. I don't don't think there will be any QE3 and anything the fed does will be squarely focused on driving down 30 year mortgage rates (no they haven't learned)
Greece is completely toast though. Greek inflation over the next few years (assuming they are dropped from the ECU) will be astronomical.
I'm just in awe right now at what's happening. Just like the financial crisis of 2008, I expected it, but the degree of carnage I think will surprise me again. (and many others)
It's only a matter of time I think before Greece is booted. What is your best guess on when that could be? It was funny when they came out of the summit Thursday (or wednesday) with this brilliant plan, sending the EUR soaring. Two days later investors realize Greece still doesnt stand a chance. They lose it all, plus some.
No idea when Greece would get booted... If you stuck a gun to my head... End of December.
The market is expecting a QE3 by Jan 1 (on the order of 450 Billion) I don't think they're going to get it... It looks ugly.
Another question for you. What do you expect happens to the Euro the day Greece does in fact get the boot?
It's really an exercise in futility to call a one day effect. You might as well flip a coin. Look at Friday, I was sure the ECB action would have moved the markets lower then... But the Euro market went higher the first day and it took a day for it to fall apart.
I think in the medium term... Over the first month or so, the Euro would move higher. But how long until the bond vigilantes go after the other PIGS? Especially Italy?
As a young person with alot of time left to work and decades before retiring, someone tell me when its safe to do something. This all just seems crazy right now. I don't know if I should be buying now or doing nothing because who knows how low this might sink or if it doesnt matter all that much considering my time frame.
It's interesting to say the least - The ECB is in the process of changing it's "mission statement", Greece looks like it's now trying to avoid the referendum that Papandreau was calling for just a few days ago...
a little note on my brokerages window says that groupon shares are likely to go public today. kenny the kangaroo was not aware of this, nor is interested in buying groupon shares, but would like to hear any thoughts on groupon
how are you valuing that? by share price alone? careful.
KennyTheKangaroo wrote:
a little note on my brokerages window says that groupon shares are likely to go public today. kenny the kangaroo was not aware of this, nor is interested in buying groupon shares, but would like to hear any thoughts on groupon
there are more "red flags' with Groupon that any other US based IPO that I've seen in the last 10 years or so.
Last edited by ExPatriatePen on Fri Nov 04, 2011 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
