2015 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

[Troy Loney]

2014 Results:
88-74 (2nd in NL Central, 1st WC)

Runs scored 682 – Runs against 631. 2013 number: 634-577. The pitching struggled in the first half of 2014 after being dominant all year in 2013. The offense in 2014 was 4th best in the NL. The struggles in the starting staff and bullpen especially are no longer with the team, Wandy, Grilli, Justin Wilson, Pimentel and Frieri combined to pitch 150.1 innings and give up 90 Earned Runs. Those issues in the bullpen and staff were sorted out and the staff was considerably stronger to close out the year. The offense was bolstered by Harrison and Martin putting up all-star numbers and Marte having an MVP second half.

The Pirates were 12-20 on May 5, 2014. The rotation was bad. Offensively Alvarez stopped striking out, but lost his power threat, Mercer was hitting under 200, Marte was struggling in the leadoff role. Neither Snider nor Tabata provided much production in RF and the 1B platoon was a disaster. Grilli, Pimentel, Wilson and Jeanmar were ineffective out of the bullpen. Wandy was throwing batting practice, Liriano and Morton weren’t carrying over 2013 success as was anticipated. Edinson Volquez was giving them the best from the rotation.

They went 76-54 the rest of the way out. Harrison took over the starting RF job until Polanco was called up and then took over for Alvarez at 3rd when the throwing issue didn’t go away. Ike Davis came over to play 1B, didn’t help the power numbers, but had great plate patience and helped work the opponents pitching staff. Mercer found his bat and finished the year with a .255 batting average. After the Polanco start flamed out, Snider moved back into RF and hit well over the last couple of months. Melancon and Watson took over the 8th and 9th innings to solidify the bullpen. Jared Hughes provided a vital contribution as a ground ball reliever that stranded runners and cleaned up other guy’s messes. Locke and Worley ended up giving the team 24 quality starts and got them through a potential disaster when Cole and Liriano went on the disabled list. Those two then came back later in the season to take back over top spots in the rotation.

The Pirates were in contention for the division until the final weekend, they ultimately fell short and were stuck having to face Madison “destroyer of worlds” Bumgarner in a one game playoff. The impetus for 2015 will be the division title.

2015
Projected lineups:

Josh Harrison
Gregory Polanco
Andrew McCutchen
Neil Walker
Starling Marte
Pedro Alvarez
Francisco Cervelli
Jordy Mercer

Corey Hart, Sean Rodriguez, and Kang will see lots of starts, but I imagine the lineup against LH starters will be much different from this, but is impossible to predict at this juncture.

Starting Rotation

Franciso Liriano
Gerrit Cole
AJ Burnett
Charlie Morton
Vance Worley

Bullpen
Mark Melancon
Tony Watson
Antonio Bastardo
Jared Hughes
John Holdzkom
Radhames Liz
Stolmy Pimentel/Jeff Locke/Brad Lincon/Clayton Richard

Position Analysis:

Catcher
Francisco Cervilli enters the season as the starter with Chris Stewart backing up. Cervelli has only had one season with 200 at bats, if he can stay healthy he combines solid defense with some offensive contributions. He has a career .278 average and .729 OPS. The organization’s focus on player health might provide the most value with Cervelli, if he avoids major injury, he could provide comparable production to Russell Martin. Stewart is a solid backup option, but if Cervelli were to go down, I think the Pirates would turn to either Tony Sanchez or Elias Diaz for consistent playing time. The situation behind the plate is not ideal, I would rather the Pirates went for a lower ceiling, higher floor option than Cervelli.

First Base
Pedro Alvarez will start the season seeing the majority of the starts at 1st. He played himself off of third base with outrageous throwing problems. At this point it’s hard to project Alvarez as more than a .225 hitter with a ton of power that strikes out a ton. He changed something last season to cut down on the strike outs, but it cut the power and didn’t boost his average at all. If he hits 35 HR they can handle the K’s, and hopefully Hurdle will just keep Alvarez at the 6 spot in the lineup regardless of what happens. Corey Hart was brought in to backup Alvarez and face lefties. He missed the entire 2013 season and was ineffective last year in Seattle. The implication is that he wasn’t healthy before 2014 and spent the offseason rehabbing and wasn’t ready to start. He’s supposed to be back to full health now and spent this offseason training, as opposed to rehabbing. There’s reason to expect a better 2015, He’s important variable because they need to utilize him in a way that gives him enough at bats to acclimate back to MLB pitching, and enough rest to stay healthy. If either of these players suffers a major injury, the other isn’t set up to be effective in an everyday role. There are options for Hurdle, but there isn’t depth at the position.

Second Base
Neil Walker will see the majority of the starts here, being a switch hitter and the primary cleanup hitter in the lineup. His 2013 splits implied that he might be more of a platoon player, but he performed much better from the right side in 2014 and erased those concerns. Injury concerns exist and I believe Hurdle will look to Sean Rodriguez and Kang to limit Walker’s playing time to prevent injury. Effectiveness from this group will determine how much time they ultimately take away from Walker. Walker’s injuries tend be in the back and oblique region, so a lighter playing load should alleviate some of those injury concerns. Look for a .280 season with 20 HR again.

Short Stop
Jordy Mercer should see the majority of playing time at the beginning of the season. He entered 2014 as the starter, but struggled at the plate for the first two months of the year. He came into the starting role with questions about the defense, but his glove was excellent throughout the season, which mitigated the effect of the poor offensive production. Kang should see plenty of time at the position because the Pirates will want to see what they have in him. Mercer is bigger than a prototypical MLB shortstop, so there should be some questions going forward about his ability to stay at the position in the long run. We should get a better idea in 2015 of what we can ultimately expect out of him offensively going forward, at worst he looks like a great backup middle infielder and at best an above average starting shortstop.

Third Base
Josh Harrison was an all-star and MVP candidate in 2014. His versatility on defense and ability to produce in the leadoff spot was arguably the most important factor that turned the Pirates season around in May. His production at the top of the lineup made everyone in the lineup better, and if he can replicate his 2014 season, the offense should again improve in 2015. Sean Rodriguez has played 3B before, and it seems like he would see the majority of the other starts at 3B.

Right Field
Gregory Polanco forced his way onto the ML roster after the super 2 cutoff date, much to the chagrin of fans who believed the organization was penny pinching. Sticking to on field stuff, he looked great for a few weeks, but then had to be replaced by Snider as the everyday RF. Polanco is probably going to be a 30/30 guy with a great on base skills, likely a perennial all-star. I believe his drop off in 2014 was strictly fatigue. In 2013 he played in Bradenton, then Altoona, a two game stint in Indy, then he tore up the Arizona Fall league and Dominican Winter Leagues. Proceeded to tear it up in ML Spring Training 2014 and again in Indy before making it to Pittsburgh. This offseason he skipped the Winter Leagues and has been bulking up instead. He’s a player for Pirate fans to get excited about.

Center Field
McCutchen. One of the most complete players in baseball. Hits for average and power and adds value with speed on the bases. Anchors the lineup and plays a premium defensive position.

Left Field
Starling Marte, perennial all-star and MVP candidate…except for one thing. He strikes out too much. One of those players that contributes in multiple aspects. Boosts in OBP with HBP, pressures the opposing defense with his speed and creates errors. An elite defensive centerfielder, playing LF. Covers a ton of ground and keeps the opposition from taking extra bases with a plus arm. Was miscast as a leadoff hitter, he had the speed to be a dangerous lead off guy, but his approach at the plate was best served deeper in the lineup. If August and September 2014 are a preview of what’s to come from this guy, he could surpass McCutchen as the MVP on this team, you can count the number of hitless games in that period with one hand during that two month stretch.

Starting Rotation

Francisco Liriano – His game has fit this team perfectly. When he’s been healthy the last two years, he’s pitched like an ace. Unfortunately he’s only been able to give them 160 innings each year, so durability is a concern. As seen last year, he’s not effective when banged up.

Gerrit Cole – Coming into 2014, he was one of those pitchers Verducci highlights as an injury risk due to his 2013 workload. After dealing with some minor issues early on then having a long stint on the DL in the middle of the season, he came back to finish strong. While he doesn’t look like Felix Hernandez yet, he is incredibly consistent when on the mound and gives the team a chance to win every time. He has a high floor and could emerge as one of the top pitchers in the NL for 2015.

AJ Burnett – Played on a terrible team through a hernia most of the year, and still had 213 innings and 190 K’s. Will be a reliable innings eater and will see the ERA come down playing in PNC park with a competitive team. With plenty of pitching talent at the upper levels, it made more sense to bring Burnett back for one year as opposed to giving Volquez two years. Should be a good guy to have in the clubhouse, and they could have done much worse on a one year placeholder.

Charlie Morton – Coming back from injury, he’s signed for another year after this. Still battles with inconsistency and could see the high profile prospects in triple A pushing for his job this season. Going into last season he was a guy that the team was counting on heavily, and an erratic year that ended in injury. I think he’s best when not a primary contributor. He could prove to be a valuable asset as a back of the rotation guy.

Vance Worley – Appears to be a guy that fit in exactly with what the Pirates want to do. Pitched to contact and had the best GB% of his career. With some injury concerns ahead of him in the rotation, he will probably be the guy that replaces Volquez by giving the team efficient starts all season.

Depth Options

Jeff Locke – Will be the 6th guy, not sure if he will be on the ML club as a long reliever, or if he can start in Indy till he’s needed to fill in if someone gets injured.

Nick Kingham and Jameson Taillon – two high profile right handed starting pitchers. The former will start in Indy to begin the season and should get his first taste of the Majors this season. Taillon will likely get held back in extended spring training as he recovers from TJ surgery. Won’t be a rotation candidate till late in the season for the ML team. Both are high floor prospects that could give the team productive innings in 2015.

Bullpen

Mark Melancon – All-star closer, combines solid strikeout numbers with a high GB%. Elite reliever, expect another all-star appearance and a lot of saves in 2015.

Tony Watson – He was great in 2013, and then got better in 2014. Starts 2015 as the setup man and gives them the best 8-9 inning combination.

Antonio Bastardo – Big strikeout guy, has an interesting trend in his numbers where the higher the K/9, the higher his ERA. He looks like a guy who will be forced to drop his BB/9 to stay in the Hurdle circle of trust. The K numbers indicate dominating stuff out of the bullpen, and should be a strong late inning option for the Pirates.

Jared Hughes – He had probably the most specific role out of the bullpen last season, pitch to contact and get ground balls. He had a low BB and K numbers and a huge GB%. Will likely be the first guy out of the bullpen most games when the starter gets in trouble and needs to be spelled.

John Holdzkom – Came out of nowhere to play a role in the bullpen late in the season. Looks like a strikeout pitcher, will have a role at the outset of the season, he could be the guy that’s used to close out games when Melancon or Watson need a night off. Would be the guy to leap past Bastardo and Hughes should Watson or Melancon spend time on the DL.

Radhames Liz/Stolmy Pimentel – Luckily the Pirates starter only has to make it through the 6th for neither of these two to be in play on most nights. Liz is a major wildcard and Stolmy will have some work to get back into Hurdle’s circle of trust.


Prediction:

There are only three things I can see that would derail the season. One would obviously be a long term injury to McCutchen. Two would be a major Josh Harrison regression. I don’t like any of the other Pirate hitters batting leadoff. They would probably reinsert Marte to leadoff which would be a huge dropoff at the #1 spot and the #5 spot in the lineup. And three would be three major injuries to the rotation. Morton and Liriano will both probably miss some time on the DL and go throw a handful of clunkers. Locke is a better than capable #6 and can be effective for extensive periods in the rotation.

The bullpen went from tire fire to one of the best over the course of 2014, so there’s nothing I don’t think this team can overcome in terms of injury or regression. And the other positions have a combination of enough depth and lack of responsibility. (Like at first where Alvarez isn’t really being counted on that much and they can overcome his lost spells with 1-5 production in the order).

Record Prediction: 92-70 First Place in the NL Central

[Crankshaft]

I feel better about this team this year than I did last year. Can't wait for some baseball.

[FreeCandy44]

:) awesome as usual Mr Loney.

This year I see AJ coming back big with 10-12 wins 200+ innings and about 150k's. Also hoping that J Hay wasnt a flash in the pan and the bullpen can continue its strong output.

Im thinking 88-74 with a wc.

[Crankshaft]

A lot of the infield hinges on Harrison, although I'm not as worried as I was because I have a good feeling about Kang. I think Pedro rebounds and Kang breaks out enough that whatever backslide Harrison has will be mitigated. Also, I think Marte breaks out bigtime.

[Troy Loney]

awesome as usual Mr Loney.

This year I see AJ coming back big with 10-12 wins 200+ innings and about 150k's. Also hoping that J Hay wasnt a flash in the pan and the bullpen can continue its strong output.

Im thinking 88-74 with a wc.

I think they're poised to finally pass the Cardinals. Wainwright and Molina could be entering the twilight of their careers and especially Molina as he's been having a lot of trouble staying on the field. And both if they lose either of those guys for an extended period of time, the team is much worse.

Burnett as the #3 starter compared to Morton as the #3 starter in 2014 is a big upgrade. His consistency will be valuable.

Harrison is a guy I worry about, if he's unable to stay in the leadoff spot, I see that as a major domino in the offense, and fall way off from 2014.

[Mr. Colby]

I'm so excited. Part of me wants to get tickets to game 1 in Cincy, but the other part doesn't want to watch a 1-0 Cueto shutout.

[Troy Loney]

Just for fun I tallied up the contributions from I. Davis, Sanchez, Morel, Barmes, Martinez, Nix and Ishikawa

Those 7 accounted for 961 PA last season with a BA of .221.

Slash Line: .304/.342/.646

Their 961 plate appearances accounted for 16.3% of all non pitcher at bats in 2014. The OPS for that segment of the team was .761...considering what's in and what's out for 2015, the offense will be much more productive.

[count2infinity]

I'm cautiously optimistic that this is a 90+ wins team. Excited for opening day. Hell, I even bought a buccos jersey for the first time in my life.

[ulf]

Good stuff troy. Is this where we make predictions?

93-69. I nailed last year's so put the central division pennant up now.

[44windmill]

It's strange to read all the optimism here. It was just 3 years ago where I would have taken a 70 win season. I think I'm still cautious with my optimism around this team. 20 years will do that to you.

With that said, great write up TL. In years past you could chalk up the "ifs" into the "won't" department, but who knows anymore. I do think we've been relatively "lucky" in regards to injuries to our front line guys over the past couple of years. Cinci has lost Votto for significant time, StL lost Molina, Wainwright and Wacha for various stretches, but we've stayed off the 60 day DL for the most part. Assuming the good juju stays on our side for another year, I can definitely see a 90 win, NLCD title.

[LeopardLetang]

Great stuff Troy

This team has enough talent, upside, depth and hunger to be more likely to make the playoffs than not. And enough high end talent and experience to make noise once there.

Things to watch:

Cole emerging as an ace
Pedro finding consistency at the plate
Marte becoming an all star
Polanco having a couple of huge months and finding comfort in right
Rotation depth giving the team a chance nearly every night
Harrison solidifying himself as an above average everyday player
Cervelli's defense and his leadership abilities/relationship with the rotation (a huge question mark but I'm not pessimistic)
Kang's contributions
Hart's bounce back potential

Here's to a couple long winning steaks and no long slumps! Let's Go Bucs!

[shafnutz05]

Troy, very nice opening writeup. HT to PBP for sharing this with me:

http://i.imgur.com/V5FQOrs.jpg

[DropEmJayBird]

Let's not celebrate too early here....

[Troy Loney]

Let's not celebrate too early here....

lol, were you the one that complained about them celebrating after clinching the WC?

If so, do you feel vindicated?

[columbia]

Troy, very nice opening writeup. HT to PBP for sharing this with me:

http://i.imgur.com/V5FQOrs.jpg

lol at the comic.

The funny thing about PBP is that he actively baited the mods to ban him; still not sure why. Perhaps bourbon?

[Mr. Colby]

Things to watch:

Cole emerging as an ace - yes... big breakout coming
Pedro finding consistency at the plate - yes... he wasn't bad there last year and this is his last chance... he will respond
Marte becoming an all star - if he stays healthy, think cutch 2012
Polanco having a couple of huge months and finding comfort in right - meh i see an inconsistent season. Think marte 2013
Rotation depth giving the team a chance nearly every night - this still makes me the most nervous
Harrison solidifying himself as an above average everyday player - sucks that he has to prove him self but this guy has it... whatever it is
Cervelli's defense and his leadership abilities/relationship with the rotation (a huge question mark but I'm not pessimistic) - he will... just stay healthy!
Kang's contributions - expectations in check... i see him being a solid bench guy all year but nothing more... this is based on absolutely nothing too btw
Hart's bounce back potential - dont see it happening... doubt he finishes the season here

Others:
Walker repeating last year at the plate and staying healthy (unlikely for both)
Bullpen having a bounce back year (likely)
Mercer playing like he did the last 4 months (likely)
Team response to Cutch HBP (corey hart and Burnett knock out some brewers i hope)

[Mr. Colby]

One more: leadership

Need to fill the void left from the Martin, Snider, Barmes, and Sanchez departures. This is Cutch's team and he will lead. Burnett coming back will help. Who else will step up? Hart? Cervelli?

[ulf]

One more: leadership

Need to fill the void left from the Martin, Snider, Barmes, and Sanchez departures. This is Cutch's team and he will lead. Burnett coming back will help. Who else will step up? Hart? Cervelli?

This is gonna be Pedros world and we're all living in it

[Factorial]

90-72.

[Rocco]

http://triblive.com/mobile/7893054-96/h ... ng-pirates#" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I think I'd rather read about Cutch's contract than Rossi's invented Kang narrative.

[columbia]

Note that Kang isn't chummy with infielders.
#buccosschism

[KennyTheKangaroo]

Jaff and t Sanchez go yardwork tonight against the yanks. This game is on da fan

[Dickie Dunn]

Seems like Jaff is having a good spring training. Shame he sucks in reality.

[LeopardLetang]

Things to watch in the minors:

Taillon's recovery physically and statistically showing #2+ potential

Kingham settling into AAA and bringing a challenge to any struggling rotation member

Bell and Meadows playing like all stars in their league, bringing average and power

Hanson maturing as a person and player and maintaining his performance so far offensively

Maybe the most important minor league thing to watch is the continued dominance of Glasnow. A reduction of bbs could make him a bananas prospect for the short term future

Garcia and Allie. Both close enough to the majors to watch eagerly. One has the OBP and pedigree; one has the youth and physical tools. Both have real power.

Will McGuire, the future MLB catcher find his hitting stroke and project to a future all star

There are plenty of other guys to watch but my personal favorite is John Sever, a tall LHP. he had every advantage last year amongst less experienced competition, but his huge k rate and physical attributes have me touting him near and far. Small chance he repeats his numbers but if he does he becomes an elite prospect.

[Rocco]

http://m.pirates.mlb.com/news/article/1 ... ine-player" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Uh, no. Nice try though.