2024-2025 Season Random Penguins Fodder

[BlackNGold4Life]

Anyone know if tonight’s game is being streamed anywhere? I’m out of market and don’t get Sportsnet

[KG]

Anyone know if tonight’s game is being streamed anywhere? I’m out of market and don’t get Sportsnet

It looks like it's on ESPN + tonight.

[dark_forces]

The Athletic had an article today on offer sheets, asking a few GMs and agents if they offer sheets may be on the rise. That got me to thinking...is there any way that the Penguins could use an offer sheet to accelerate their rebuild? As I mentioned before, 1C, 2C, and 1RD are probably the 3 hardest positions to fill with elite level talent. So, what if the Penguins could fill the 2C spot via an offer sheet next summer? Have a replacement ready for Malkin after he finishes next year. I'd look at RD, but with Letang and Karlsson still on the roster and the money committed to them, it wouldn't work. With the Penguins not having their 2nd round pick, it would have to occur after the draft.

So, there is one name that jumped out at me that the Penguins should offer sheet next summer as a future 2C....

Spoiler:

Wyatt Johnson of Dallas

Why that player?

Spoiler:

1. He's only 21 years old, and put up 32 goals, 65 points last season.
2. For an offer sheet to be successful, you typically want to target teams that may be cash strapped.
3. Expanding on #2, Dallas will have Johnson, Oettinger, Bourque, and Lundqvist all as RFAs receiving considerable pay increases.
4. Expanding on #2 and #3, Dallas would have Jason Robertson, Thomas Harley and Logan Stankoven needing new RFA deals the following year.

It would be a big risk giving up our 2026 1st, 2nd, and 3rd picks, however, this would again be getting a young (he turns 22 in May). Nobody you get in the 2026 draft is going to step in and play with Crosby unless we are picking in the top 5. Move Malkin to win for his final season, or even...move him to Sid's wing for his final season.

What makes this offer sheet something that could very possibly not be matched is the 7 (including this targeted player) RFAs the other team has to sign over the next 2 offseasons. The targeted player definitely isn't the top priority of those 7. He may be 3rd or 4th on the list.

Lines for 25-26, assuming 92M cap and not worrying about dumping old, bloated salaries yet:

Spoiler:

Malkin-Crosby-Rust
Bunting-Johnson-Rakell
DOC-Broz-McGroarty
Puustinen-Lizotte-Puljujarvi
x-Acciari, Hayes

Pickering-Letang
Pettersson-EK65
Graves-St.Ivany
x-Aho

Jarry
Ned

Johnson 9M AAV
Pettersson 5.5M AAV
DOC 3.5M AAV

Just re-signing those 3, and before dumping Hayes, Acciari or moving a goalie...still has 2.675M in cap space. So even if the cap only went up to 90M, that roster above still works before moving Acciari or Hayes. And on paper, it looks pretty damn strong. Add in Ponomarev and Koivunen after moving Acciari/Hayes....and it looks even better.

The positives is that he's pretty young, but he'll be 30 before the Penguins are ready to contend again and he wouldn't be someone you can build a team around. If this was after the 2025-26 season, maybe, but not now. In 2025-26 the Penguins will have 8 players over the age of 34 and about half with 2-3 years left on their contract. The defense will have Karlsson at 35, Letang about 39, Graves at 31 each of which will have 2 or more years on their contracts.

If you get Wyatt after next year, how do you handle that much age when he's starting to hit his prime? I think we're in for a Red Wings style rebuild and I think getting someone like Johnson after next season will just delay things and he'll be traded before the next time this team can compete for a cup. If they can trade Rust, Rakell, Karlsson, Graves, maybe Letang and Malkin before giving Johnson an offer sheet my opinion drastically changes.

Nothing is certain, but I am a little more convinced than I was 6 months ago that, maybe a quick rebuild or rebuild on the fly is possible, with the right moves. I'll immediately point to Florida and what they just did with only THREE of their own draft picks playing on the Stanley Cup winning team. Those 3 were Barkov (1C), Ekblad (1D, but questionable at this stage due to injuries), and Lundell (3C, with 2C potential). They just won the Cup with those 3 and bunch of guys they have brought in over the years through trades and UFA. Reinhart, Bennett, OEL, Montour, ERod, Tarasenko, Verhaeghe...all of those guys were brought in via trade and signings.

So, you start next summer by adding Johnson, who's already hit 30+ goals and 60+ points before age 21. He definitely could end up being a 1C once Crosby leaves. Just that add, the DOC and MP signings, and bringing in a bunch of young guys (McGroarty, Broz, Ponomarev) to add to the bottom 6 is a stronger lineup.

It's a bit harder to project out a lot further, but, another 3M cap increase up to 95M for the summer of 2026. Malkin, Bunting, Hayes, Nedeljkovic and Acciari all come off the books. That's 18.67M off the books, plus 3M in cap space. 21.6M to add (which doesn't count Puustinen or Lizotte, too), and your roster before you add or make trades looks like this:

DOC-Crosby-Rust
X-Johnson-Rakell
McGroarty-Broz-Puljujarvi
X-X-X

Filling out the bottom 4th line shouldn't cost a ton, say 6M max. You make a big splash on a top end winger to fill that 2nd line spot or slot in next to Crosby. Maybe at this point, we trade out Rust or Rakell to bring in a 2nd top tier winger in trade or via UFA.

There's no guarantees it can be done. But there's also no guarantees that we are going to be in a position to draft a Lemieux/Crosby/Malkin level star to build a multi-year dynasty around. The team may have to focus on 3-4 year runs for a bit. This team and fan base are going to be in a huge shock, because we are used to long runs with playoffs every year with more than just a showing and bounced out. This franchise is long overdue for not having a generational talent in their lineup like they have for the 80% of the last 40 years. How long has Arizona been around, and who was their last "elite, build your team around" type of player? Same for Florida before Barkov/Huberdeau/Tkachuk? How about Ottawa post EK65 departing?

Lemieux to Jagr, brief pause, to Crosby/Malkin is an incredible run that is due to come to an end, and we all need to be prepared to go about winning in a different way, or in much smaller periods than 10-20 years of success. It is coming.

My concern is the long term contracts and people over 32. Too many contracts that can’t be traded, half the defense has several years left and are over 30.

I love the idea and I agree the Penguins can do a quick retool and even rebuild. Today’s sports really devalues the draft compared to the past because of free agency and UDFAs. My problem is about half the roster is over 30 and has a no trade clause of some kind.

Even if you have 12 players about 21-22 you still have an old and slow team with a stale coach. While I’d love it, I just see too many things that need to be done first.

On a Pittsburgh rumor site, they mention Columbus being a potential trading partner for some of our forward depth pieces (how they put it). I'm imagining this means the likes of Puustinen, Eller, Acciari, even Puljujarvi. Who knows what the cost would be and what they're offering, but it makes some sense.

[Coffey Break]

Here's a nice small statistic for all the people rushing to push 71 into retirement or to LW/RW

[Antonio]

Who the hell is paying Tim Stutzle 8m+ a year? Talk about some absolutely brain dead GMs. I mean ok, he has had a great and a solid season in the last two years but...man, stuff is just crazy. Going to be honest, not sure that comparison is exactly the flex it seems like, but no one disputes Malkin did put up a few points last year. I think the larger issue that so many seem to always miss is that there seem to be a camp of people who hear any discussion about Malkin no longer being an option we should be holding onto for a variety of considerations, and they aggressively attack because they believe any critique of Malkin is 100% equivalent to saying Malkin is garbage, has always been garbage and should be deported, rather than actually being able to have a nuanced discussion about where he is right now and his overall value to the team with respect to its current and near term position.

[FLPensFan]

Who the hell is paying Tim Stutzle 8m+ a year? Talk about some absolutely brain dead GMs. I mean ok, he has had a great and a solid season in the last two years but...man, stuff is just crazy. Going to be honest, not sure that comparison is exactly the flex it seems like, but no one disputes Malkin did put up a few points last year. I think the larger issue that so many seem to always miss is that there seem to be a camp of people who hear any discussion about Malkin no longer being an option we should be holding onto for a variety of considerations, and they aggressively attack because they believe any critique of Malkin is 100% equivalent to saying Malkin is garbage, has always been garbage and should be deported, rather than actually being able to have a nuanced discussion about where he is right now and his overall value to the team with respect to its current and near term position.

His goals dipped last year to 18, but he had 39 goals the season before to go along with 90 points. Almost .9 points per game over his 4 seasons in the NHL. I don't see anything wrong with 8M. This is only his 2nd year at the 8.35M AAV. This year plus 6 more at that rate is going to look like a bargain in 2-3 years if he keeps up his pace.

Give Malkin the better wingers, and see what happens. Malkin always played well with Rust, but he went to Crosby. There's no arguing Malkin has started showing some signs of decline, but he also has often been "stuck" with Crosby's leftover wingers. Maybe if a GM actually went out and got a winger that suits Malkin's play, things would be different.

[Antonio]

Yeah i know Stutzle was super productive 2 years ago but I'm always leery of these "I had a marvelous season so pay me big money now" deals. Always a risk gambling on locking them up "cheap" for future production. Absolutely could end up being a steal though. Just "feels" odd for him to be getting almost 8.5 million but...you know.

I know everyone has the Malkin never has wingers argument but... ahh forget it. Why bother typing the same stuff for the 100th time. We are where we are roster wise, so we'll just see how it goes this year.

[Coffey Break]

There's a large faction of fans and media that think 2C just grow on trees. I'm really not sure how you look at any of this team's problems and narrow it down to 71 even being a top 50 problem on the team. As far as 2C in the league go, he was outscored by only 3 other centers last year - and that too, straddled by anchors for 80% of the season....the ghosts of Reilly Smith and Rickard Rakell chiefly. I mean there were games last season where Jansen Harkins and Colin White were his wingers.

[Pens4Life]

There's a large faction of fans and media that think 2C just grow on trees. I'm really not sure how you look at any of this team's problems and narrow it down to 71 even being a top 50 problem on the team. As far as 2C in the league go, he was outscored by only 3 other centers last year - and that too, straddled by anchors for 80% of the season....the ghosts of Reilly Smith and Rickard Rakell chiefly. I mean there were games last season where Jansen Harkins and Colin White were his wingers.

Malkin could have better wingers sure,but many players we tried there didnt click with him. Its seems its much easier to play with Sid for almost everybody.

Also Harkins and White horrible experiment,thats 100% on coach.. he had many other better options to try,but we know Sully..

[Puck-Lurker]

Malkin has for the longest time been a 1C on a second line. Let's be real. He's lost a step, but if you consider him a 2C, you're not likely to find better.

And he'd still be 1C for some teams..

Love him when he's here. Retire his # when the time comes.

[Coffey Break]

There's a large faction of fans and media that think 2C just grow on trees. I'm really not sure how you look at any of this team's problems and narrow it down to 71 even being a top 50 problem on the team. As far as 2C in the league go, he was outscored by only 3 other centers last year - and that too, straddled by anchors for 80% of the season....the ghosts of Reilly Smith and Rickard Rakell chiefly. I mean there were games last season where Jansen Harkins and Colin White were his wingers.

Malkin could have better wingers sure,but many players we tried there didnt click with him. Its seems its much easier to play with Sid for almost everybody.

Also Harkins and White horrible experiment,thats 100% on coach.. he had many other better options to try,but we know Sully..

To the first part of your statement - Yes and No. Sid definitely has a "type" that can help unlock the best out of both 87 and the winger(s). Typically high IQ guys who can keep up with his pace (Dupuis, Kunitz, Guentzel, Hossa as prime examples).

Malkin is often given the spare parts (which I can understand to an extent since a Top 5 player of all time is the 1C). But he's often been relied on to elevate subpar pieces around him - there was a small streak of games where even Kasperi Kapanen looked like a world beater next to Malkin. James Neal was a bust his first season after the acquisition from Dallas - and Geno turned him into 40-goal scorer. We often forget the Guentzel-Malkin-Rust line from a few seasons ago when 87 was out was one of the best lines in hockey that season until (I believe) Rust got hurt. Every shift, there was a minimum of a Grade-A scoring chance.

More recently - before Reilly Smith forgot how to play hockey, he and Malkin actually looked really solid for 2 weeks to start last season. I recall multiple times per game thinking, how many perfect passes can 71 give to his wingers before someone finishes it. There was some advanced statistics out there to back that eye test if I recall but can't remember where I saw it.

Hopefully the Bunting experiment sticks and is given time to gel this season after some good small sample size of success.

[Puck-Lurker]

Jansen Harkins....


We never really replaced him.. his physical playstyle... his playmaking... his production... 45gp, 0G, 4pts.

The second coming of Sergei Plotnikov. At least with White, he only got like a dozen games before we confirmed he was crap.

[lemieuxReturns]

Malkin has for the longest time been a 1C on a second line. Let's be real. He's lost a step, but if you consider him a 2C, you're not likely to find better.

And he'd still be 1C for some teams..

Love him when he's here. Retire his # when the time comes.

100%

I think it is funny how people reacted to Sid signing at 8.7M .... Wow! What a unselfish amazing human being!!!
Geno signs for 6M... what an albatross of a contract that we are going to really really regret!

[Skatingpen]

John Gibson out 3-6 weeks…….. they could inquire about the Pens surplus of goalies?

[FLPensFan]

John Gibson out 3-6 weeks…….. they could inquire about the Pens surplus of goalies?

I was kind of wondering if Boston was going to trade for Gibson with the whole Swayman negotiations still not done. Swayman looking to be one of the top 5 paid goalies in the league, which would put him over 8M AAV. Boston only has 8.5M in cap space, and already has 8 players under 1M AAV on the roster, plus another 4 players who make between 1-3M AAV. Boston doesn't have room to cut salary to fit Swayman above 8.5M (rumors are he wants 10M).

There are also rumors that Shesterkin, who is on the last year of his deal, wants to be the highest paid goalie in the league, and I've heard 12M AAV as a number thrown around. That doesn't help the Swayman negotiations.

Swayman is either going to have to be fine at 8.5M, take a 1 year deal for under 8.5M, or Boston is going to have to start trading players just to fit Swayman.

I don't expect Anaheim to be very competitive yet, so they'll probably hand over the reigns to Dostal. Maybe they bring in someone like Martin Jones on the cheap to back him up.

[Pitts]

Jarry for Gibson.

[Pens4Life]

Uugh,no - he is still owed 6.4M next 3 seasons..

[Antonio]

Jarry for cap relief and some assets of any sort would be my choice. Just play two of the 17 promising goalies we have. It's not going to be that much different statistically than playing jarry and wasting 5m.

[Puck-Lurker]

Jarry for cap relief and some assets of any sort would be my choice. Just play two of the 17 promising goalies we have. It's not going to be that much different statistically than playing jarry and wasting 5m.

Trade Jarry for cap relief and maybe some okay prospect. Use the cap relief to take on a contract around the deadline that someone wants to eject, but which expires this season. Get a pick along with that.

[lemieuxReturns]

Jarry for cap relief and some assets of any sort would be my choice. Just play two of the 17 promising goalies we have. It's not going to be that much different statistically than playing jarry and wasting 5m.

Trade Jarry for cap relief and maybe some okay prospect. Use the cap relief to take on a contract around the deadline that someone wants to eject, but which expires this season. Get a pick along with that.

Sounds like a plan I can get behind.

[Pens4Life]

I think we all like that plan, but there are no takers for Jarry it seems.. he is one leg out of Pens since half of last season

[Puck-Lurker]

I think we all like that plan, but there are no takers for Jarry it seems.. he is one leg out of Pens since half of last season

Yeah, it's a shame.

That said, Dubas has worked some magic on immovable objects contracts before. This is one he created himself though; not that he had that much choice at the time, but he should've passed on the price tag.

[Tico Rick]

I think we all like that plan, but there are no takers for Jarry it seems.. he is one leg out of Pens since half of last season

Yeah, it's a shame.

That said, Dubas has worked some magic on immovable objects contracts before. This is one he created himself though; not that he had that much choice at the time, but he should've passed on the price tag.

I'm not terribly concerned about this, as sometime between now and the trade deadline some team's starting goalie will either seriously underperform or suffer a long-term injury, and Dubas will have a dance partner. This will also give Blomqvist and Murashov time to gain more experience.

[FLPensFan]

I think we all like that plan, but there are no takers for Jarry it seems.. he is one leg out of Pens since half of last season

Yeah, it's a shame.

That said, Dubas has worked some magic on immovable objects contracts before. This is one he created himself though; not that he had that much choice at the time, but he should've passed on the price tag.

I'm not terribly concerned about this, as sometime between now and the trade deadline some team's starting goalie will either seriously underperform or suffer a long-term injury, and Dubas will have a dance partner. This will also give Blomqvist and Murashov time to gain more experience.

I'm still keeping my eyes on Vancouver and Demko. He's injured, there hasn't been any reveal as to what his injury is, only that "no other hockey player in history has suffered this type of injury." I just did a search to find the Athletic article I read on this, and found that apparently someone said it is an injury to the popliteus muscle, a small muscle in the back of the knee that is a major contributor to knee stability.

Again, I get that Demko is the better goalie and considered somewhere in the 5-10 range of top goalies in the league, but he is extremely injury prone. How injury prone...Jarry has played 9-10 more regular season games over the past 3 years than Demko, and we all know Jarry's multitude of injury issues. Demko has this year and next year on his deal. He's had a lot of knee issues, and I'd hate for Vancouver to put all their chips on Demko being healthy when they have a really good team.

If I'm Rutherford/Allvin, I consider LTIR-ing Demko for the year and potentially buying him out next summer. If the Penguins were to trade Jarry to Vancouver, we'd likely have to retain salary which is tough to swallow for 3 more years. Vancouver looking into Gibson (even though he's hurt)

If I'm just trying to dump Jarry...I'd trade Jarry to Vancouver with 25% retained (1.343M) for Vancouver's 2025 2nd round pick. They'd have to send salary back or keep Demko on LTIR. Even if they were to trade for Gibson with 50% retained, they'd still have to send a major piece back or LTIR Demko for the year.

[Antonio]

I don't know that I want the retention for the rest of jarrys term for a 2nd but maybe. For 25 percent I'd like a little more.