The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race

[FLPensFan]

8 Games into the season the Penguins are:
--1 point behind Washington for 3rd in the Metro; Washington has 3 games in hand
--tied with Boston and Buffalo for WC 2 spot with 7 points. Boston has the spot via points percentage
--10th in the conference based on points and point percentage
--21st overall in the league based on points and point percentage
--Picking 8th overall in the 2025 draft based on point percentage

[largegarlic]

I know it's really early in the season to say, but I kinda feel like this western Canada road trip might be definitive. If they go on to lose the next couple games in regulation, they'll be 3-6-1. I just don't see this team as capable of putting together long win streaks, so I suspect they might not get above .500 again if they sink 3-4 games below the line. But if they can battle through and win a game or least get another loser point and come out of it 4-5-1 or 3-5-2, maybe they can keep bobbing along around .500 and can at least stay in the WC conversation for a bit.

[Pruezy11881]

Been barely over .500 for over 2 seasons already, this season not included...+15 games in the win column. No playoff appearances. Team defensive rankings near the bottom in many important categories. Something has gotta give...

*Edit: Total of 80 wins, 75 of which are ROW, 63 were actually wins in regulation.

[FLPensFan]

I know it's really early in the season to say, but I kinda feel like this western Canada road trip might be definitive. If they go on to lose the next couple games in regulation, they'll be 3-6-1. I just don't see this team as capable of putting together long win streaks, so I suspect they might not get above .500 again if they sink 3-4 games below the line. But if they can battle through and win a game or least get another loser point and come out of it 4-5-1 or 3-5-2, maybe they can keep bobbing along around .500 and can at least stay in the WC conversation for a bit.

Edmonton is a winnable game because they are just as much of a trainwreck...but they are fast, and that might be a problem. Vancouver seems like another loss waiting to happen and so does Minnesota. That puts them at 4-6-1 after Minnesota, which then sees ANA, MTL, and NYI which all should be winnable games. That gets them back to 7-6-1. Then you have CAR, WSH, DAL, which seems like 3 losses, DET, CBJ, and SJ...which seems like 3 wins. That gets them to 10-9-1. They finish up November with TB, WPG, UTA, VAN, BOS, CGY...which could easily be 6 straight losses, and would put them at 10-15-1 at the end of November.

There obviously should be some wins you don't expect and some losses you don't expect, but in general, unless this team shows iota of consistency they haven't shown in 2 years, they could easily finish November with only 21 points in the bank out of a possible 52 points. And that's not far off from where they were last year...on NOV 30th, the Penguins were 11-10-1 with 23 points in 22 games, 2 points out of a Wild Card spot.

[FLPensFan]

Penguins still at 7 points.
--SJ is worst in the league, 0 wins, 2 OT losses, 2 points
--PHI and CHI are next with 5 points
--NSH next with 6 points
--Penguins and 4 other teams tied with 7 points

By straight points percentage, the Penguins .350 points percentage is 4th worst in the league. It's a shame one lottery pick isn't going to fix this team.

[Cow_Master66]

Penguins still at 7 points.
--SJ is worst in the league, 0 wins, 2 OT losses, 2 points
--PHI and CHI are next with 5 points
--NSH next with 6 points
--Penguins and 4 other teams tied with 7 points

By straight points percentage, the Penguins .350 points percentage is 4th worst in the league. It's a shame one lottery pick isn't going to fix this team.

They will have lottery picks the next 3-4 seasons at least. More if they keep the band together.

[Puck-Lurker]

Penguins still at 7 points.
--SJ is worst in the league, 0 wins, 2 OT losses, 2 points
--PHI and CHI are next with 5 points
--NSH next with 6 points
--Penguins and 4 other teams tied with 7 points

By straight points percentage, the Penguins .350 points percentage is 4th worst in the league. It's a shame one lottery pick isn't going to fix this team.

They will have lottery picks the next 3-4 seasons at least. More if they keep the band together.

All we have now, is hoping the next few drafts will be good. Listen to offers on guys at the deadline, ship out what you can for picks.

[Wyopen]

I’m concerned about trades. GMs know KD is now dealing from the point of weakness. Not good. He will never get the best deal.

[FLPensFan]

I’m concerned about trades. GMs know KD is now dealing from the point of weakness. Not good. He will never get the best deal.

Shouldn't matter much at the trade deadline. If Dubas was out there trying to wheel and deal now, yeah, he's probably not going to find many good deals. At the trade deadline, teams want the right players to fill gaps. They aren't necessarily in a position of leverage because multiple teams are looking. Not worth playing games thinking GM X is in a tight spot, I'm gonna try and lowball him...and risk losing out on your guy because of it.

[Daniel]

Penguins still at 7 points.
--SJ is worst in the league, 0 wins, 2 OT losses, 2 points
--PHI and CHI are next with 5 points
--NSH next with 6 points
--Penguins and 4 other teams tied with 7 points

By straight points percentage, the Penguins .350 points percentage is 4th worst in the league. It's a shame one lottery pick isn't going to fix this team.

It depends on how deep the draft is and how will the Penguins are to play kids. If they’re drafting top 1-2 then they might be able to play 1st/2nd/maybe 3rd round players (3rd round being a lower pairing/defensive forward type). Take a change on an overage player, things like that.

That said, as long as Sullivan is the coach and as long as ‘winning the cup’ is still the goal then it’ll show the fans they’re still in denial. Crosby, Malkin, Letang won’t win another cup.

[FLPensFan]

Penguins still at 7 points.
--SJ is worst in the league, 0 wins, 2 OT losses, 2 points
--PHI and CHI are next with 5 points
--NSH next with 6 points
--Penguins and 4 other teams tied with 7 points

By straight points percentage, the Penguins .350 points percentage is 4th worst in the league. It's a shame one lottery pick isn't going to fix this team.

It depends on how deep the draft is and how will the Penguins are to play kids. If they’re drafting top 1-2 then they might be able to play 1st/2nd/maybe 3rd round players (3rd round being a lower pairing/defensive forward type). Take a change on an overage player, things like that.

That said, as long as Sullivan is the coach and as long as ‘winning the cup’ is still the goal then it’ll show the fans they’re still in denial. Crosby, Malkin, Letang won’t win another cup.

This draft is supposed to be relatively deep, at least on the upper end. I don't recall the exact number, but, rough guess based on what I saw last year...the 2024 draft had maybe 12 kids with true first round grades. I think the 2025 draft may have 30 kids with 1st round grades (just saw sheet from last week, 24 kids with 1st round grades according to initial central scouting reports). 39 players with 2nd/3rd round gradesSo this is the draft where we would want to load up on picks for sure.

Top 2 right now are C James Hagens and W Porter Martone. A lot of people like C Michael Misa as well, who is ranked around 5-8th right now. I think any lottery pick by the Penguins needs to be spent on top 6 centers and RD. A few notes on some of these top guys:

-Hagens - 22 points at U18 Worlds last year broke Nikita Kucherov's record. Consensus #1, plays for Boston College
-Martone - 6'3" player listed as C, likely W in NHL. Good size and skill. Some rumblings he could challenge Hagens for top spot by end of year.
-Misa - 6'1" C who had exceptional status (means he was able to move into Juniors at an earlier age, rare to get this status). Only 9 players have had that status since rule was put in place in 2005. Only one you've never heard of would be Sean Day, d-man who played 2 NHL games with Tampa

[Daniel]

Penguins still at 7 points.
--SJ is worst in the league, 0 wins, 2 OT losses, 2 points
--PHI and CHI are next with 5 points
--NSH next with 6 points
--Penguins and 4 other teams tied with 7 points

By straight points percentage, the Penguins .350 points percentage is 4th worst in the league. It's a shame one lottery pick isn't going to fix this team.

It depends on how deep the draft is and how will the Penguins are to play kids. If they’re drafting top 1-2 then they might be able to play 1st/2nd/maybe 3rd round players (3rd round being a lower pairing/defensive forward type). Take a change on an overage player, things like that.

That said, as long as Sullivan is the coach and as long as ‘winning the cup’ is still the goal then it’ll show the fans they’re still in denial. Crosby, Malkin, Letang won’t win another cup.

This draft is supposed to be relatively deep, at least on the upper end. I don't recall the exact number, but, rough guess based on what I saw last year...the 2024 draft had maybe 12 kids with true first round grades. I think the 2025 draft may have 30 kids with 1st round grades (just saw sheet from last week, 24 kids with 1st round grades according to initial central scouting reports). 39 players with 2nd/3rd round gradesSo this is the draft where we would want to load up on picks for sure.

Top 2 right now are C James Hagens and W Porter Martone. A lot of people like C Michael Misa as well, who is ranked around 5-8th right now. I think any lottery pick by the Penguins needs to be spent on top 6 centers and RD.

I like Martone better, just because of his size and because I think he can contribute now and will a top 6 need. I doubt they'd play Hagens and he'd go back to Boston College. If Hagens was a generational talent, sure, but I don't think he is.

[FLPensFan]

Penguins still at 7 points.
--SJ is worst in the league, 0 wins, 2 OT losses, 2 points
--PHI and CHI are next with 5 points
--NSH next with 6 points
--Penguins and 4 other teams tied with 7 points

By straight points percentage, the Penguins .350 points percentage is 4th worst in the league. It's a shame one lottery pick isn't going to fix this team.

It depends on how deep the draft is and how will the Penguins are to play kids. If they’re drafting top 1-2 then they might be able to play 1st/2nd/maybe 3rd round players (3rd round being a lower pairing/defensive forward type). Take a change on an overage player, things like that.

That said, as long as Sullivan is the coach and as long as ‘winning the cup’ is still the goal then it’ll show the fans they’re still in denial. Crosby, Malkin, Letang won’t win another cup.

This draft is supposed to be relatively deep, at least on the upper end. I don't recall the exact number, but, rough guess based on what I saw last year...the 2024 draft had maybe 12 kids with true first round grades. I think the 2025 draft may have 30 kids with 1st round grades (just saw sheet from last week, 24 kids with 1st round grades according to initial central scouting reports). 39 players with 2nd/3rd round gradesSo this is the draft where we would want to load up on picks for sure.

Top 2 right now are C James Hagens and W Porter Martone. A lot of people like C Michael Misa as well, who is ranked around 5-8th right now. I think any lottery pick by the Penguins needs to be spent on top 6 centers and RD.

I like Martone better, just because of his size and because I think he can contribute now and will a top 6 need. I doubt they'd play Hagens and he'd go back to Boston College. If Hagens was a generational talent, sure, but I don't think he is.

Getting a guy that highly rated with size and skill, I wouldn't fault you for wanting Martone. I added a little more on those guys in my post, but I'd be happy with Martone or Misa.

[Daniel]

Penguins still at 7 points.
--SJ is worst in the league, 0 wins, 2 OT losses, 2 points
--PHI and CHI are next with 5 points
--NSH next with 6 points
--Penguins and 4 other teams tied with 7 points

By straight points percentage, the Penguins .350 points percentage is 4th worst in the league. It's a shame one lottery pick isn't going to fix this team.

It depends on how deep the draft is and how will the Penguins are to play kids. If they’re drafting top 1-2 then they might be able to play 1st/2nd/maybe 3rd round players (3rd round being a lower pairing/defensive forward type). Take a change on an overage player, things like that.

That said, as long as Sullivan is the coach and as long as ‘winning the cup’ is still the goal then it’ll show the fans they’re still in denial. Crosby, Malkin, Letang won’t win another cup.

This draft is supposed to be relatively deep, at least on the upper end. I don't recall the exact number, but, rough guess based on what I saw last year...the 2024 draft had maybe 12 kids with true first round grades. I think the 2025 draft may have 30 kids with 1st round grades (just saw sheet from last week, 24 kids with 1st round grades according to initial central scouting reports). 39 players with 2nd/3rd round gradesSo this is the draft where we would want to load up on picks for sure.

Top 2 right now are C James Hagens and W Porter Martone. A lot of people like C Michael Misa as well, who is ranked around 5-8th right now. I think any lottery pick by the Penguins needs to be spent on top 6 centers and RD.

I like Martone better, just because of his size and because I think he can contribute now and will a top 6 need. I doubt they'd play Hagens and he'd go back to Boston College. If Hagens was a generational talent, sure, but I don't think he is.

Getting a guy that highly rated with size and skill, I wouldn't fault you for wanting Martone. I added a little more on those guys in my post, but I'd be happy with Martone or Misa.

Misa looks like a pretty good prospect. Good size, plays center, but he needs to work on defense so he'll never play for Sullivan.

Seriously, I could see him as 3C next year and move up when Sid/Geno retire. He'd just need good defensive guys as his wingers.

[Cow_Master66]

I would just go best available regardless of position. We will need players from all positions by the time it’s relevant.

[FLPensFan]

I would just go best available regardless of position. We will need players from all positions by the time it’s relevant.

We do, but, while I'm no expert, I've said a few times top 2 centers and a true #1 defenseman (usually RD) are the 3 hardest positions to find. It's very rare to be able to acquire those types of players via trade or UFA (and with UFA, those guys are already 26-27 when they hit UFA).

If you could fill all of those positions via the draft, the rest of the positions you can usually find via free agency and trade. Florida is a very good example of this.

[dark_forces]

I would just go best available regardless of position. We will need players from all positions by the time it’s relevant.

We do, but, while I'm no expert, I've said a few times top 2 centers and a true #1 defenseman (usually RD) are the 3 hardest positions to find. It's very rare to be able to acquire those types of players via trade or UFA (and with UFA, those guys are already 26-27 when they hit UFA).

If you could fill all of those positions via the draft, the rest of the positions you can usually find via free agency and trade. Florida is a very good example of this.

Absolutely agree. If there's a true #1 center or #1 defenseman available, they're the easy choice. I would even say drafting a top tier goalie doesn't mean the same thing it used to. You just need a "good enough" or above average goalie if you have the other pieces in place.

[largegarlic]

This is kinda why I'm not THAT upset about the start of the season. It is more fun to watch when the team plays well and maybe even wins, but I think the ceiling for this roster is getting smoked in round 1 of the playoffs by a real contender (no matter who the Pens' coach is). And we know we're going to need some top-10 picks to start turning things around and hopefully build a new roster that can contend. We might as well get started this season.

[FLPensFan]

This is kinda why I'm not THAT upset about the start of the season. It is more fun to watch when the team plays well and maybe even wins, but I think the ceiling for this roster is getting smoked in round 1 of the playoffs by a real contender (no matter who the Pens' coach is). And we know we're going to need some top-10 picks to start turning things around and hopefully build a new roster that can contend. We might as well get started this season.

I'm caught in the middle. I don't think this roster is a superb, bona fide playoff contender. It's a fringe playoff team at best. But, we aren't even playing to that level with this roster. Losing because you are rebuilding, have a lot of young guys, etc is one thing. I'm prepared for that and in some ways welcome being able to watch young guys grow and develop. But what we have here, is guys that SHOULD be competing and executing much better on a nightly basis, and they aren't. And it happened last year. And it happened in the playoffs the prior 4-5 years.

This team should be better than it is. Not great, but, epic collapse on a nightly basis should not be the ceiling of this team. I guess maybe I should watch some SJ Sharks games to see how bad they look since 9 games into the season, they have yet to win a game. Maybe I'm just expecting too much from this Penguins team.

[Daniel]

This is kinda why I'm not THAT upset about the start of the season. It is more fun to watch when the team plays well and maybe even wins, but I think the ceiling for this roster is getting smoked in round 1 of the playoffs by a real contender (no matter who the Pens' coach is). And we know we're going to need some top-10 picks to start turning things around and hopefully build a new roster that can contend. We might as well get started this season.

I'm caught in the middle. I don't think this roster is a superb, bona fide playoff contender. It's a fringe playoff team at best. But, we aren't even playing to that level with this roster. Losing because you are rebuilding, have a lot of young guys, etc is one thing. I'm prepared for that and in some ways welcome being able to watch young guys grow and develop. But what we have here, is guys that SHOULD be competing and executing much better on a nightly basis, and they aren't. And it happened last year. And it happened in the playoffs the prior 4-5 years.

This team should be better than it is. Not great, but, epic collapse on a nightly basis should not be the ceiling of this team. I guess maybe I should watch some SJ Sharks games to see how bad they look since 9 games into the season, they have yet to win a game. Maybe I'm just expecting too much from this Penguins team.

I can't remember who said this a few years ago (you might remember the conversation) about how players that are getting older are just a split second too slow. Where the defensemen was a split second too late on passes they're now intercepting them. That the skill they had can't be used anymore. They used to be able to get in position faster and are just a split second off on defense.

The more I think about this team the more I think they're expected to do things they did 10 years ago but just can't, then they get frustrated and try too hard, then they get out of position. It could be what we see as a lack of effort is frustration that they're expected to play the game as a 30 year old but can no longer do it.

All roads lead back to Sullivan. Either he's adapted and they won't adapt and he does nothing about it or he won't adapt and won't do anything about it.

[Puck-Lurker]

There is such a thing as team speed.

We have some really fast players that can put up some good bursts of speed that force opportunity to arise. DOC, Eller, Puljujärvi, Crosby. But we've got some slowpokes too. As a team though, we're a really slow team. Like... sluggish. Can't win games in a foot-race and we have to be smart about it, which.... well... not the strong suit of some.

Also fire Sullivan

[100565]

Fire Sully.

I am still optimistic. This team needs to grow together. Prior to Carolina game, I was fine with results. Then Carolina followed by four game western Canada road trip facing two (at that time) undefeated teams, last year’s runner up, and one of western conference’s better teams. 0-5 vs that is tough. The games were lopsided and they got along ways to go. However, that is a tough stretch of games.

Hoping the next 3 weeks go well. I think they will.

[FLPensFan]

SJ and CHI win tonight. Penguins now in a 4-way tie for 3rd worst overall (tied with CHI, NSH and ANA).

Also depressing that the 1-7-2 SJ Sharks leading scorer has more goals than every Penguin with 5, and at 13 total points is only one point behind Malkin's 14. That SJ player......is Mikael Granlund.

[janissary782]

As sad as it is, next year is the year to bottom out for Gavin McKenna.

[Daniel]

As sad as it is, next year is the year to bottom out for Gavin McKenna.

McKenna and Martone could be 2026-27 top line.