The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race

[Puck-Lurker]

Dubas was here in Erie last night watching the Brampton-Erie game. 4 top prospects were playing in the game. Jack Ivankovic, Porter Martone, Matthew Schaefer, and Malcolm Spence

If you thought trading Eller was a shot across the bow ...

But it's right he looks at these guys. We are very much built for a top 10 pick.

[FLPensFan]

Dubas was here in Erie last night watching the Brampton-Erie game. 4 top prospects were playing in the game. Jack Ivankovic, Porter Martone, Matthew Schaefer, and Malcolm Spence

If you thought trading Eller was a shot across the bow ...

But it's right he looks at these guys. We are very much built for a top 10 pick.

Even though I have clearly been in the top 2 centers and RHD camp...I would love for us to snag Porter Martone. Sadly, that would be a complete waste of a pick if Sullivan were still behind the bench.

[FLPensFan]

Based on points, Penguins are currently in 7th overall worst spot, 18 points in 22 games.
Only SJ has played 22, and they are one point below the Penguins with 17 points.
Based on points percentage, the Penguins are currently 4th worst overall, with .409 points percentage.
SJ, CHI, and NSH are below them. CHI and NSH both have 15 points, and both have 2 games in hand on the Penguins.
Chicago plays Philly tonight; Nashville plays Winnipeg.

[Puck-Lurker]

Going by point % -- Penguins are 3rd worst in the league; .391
Going by points --- Penguins are 6th worst in the league; 18
Going by goals --- Penguins are 12th worst in the league (just below average); 59
Going by goals against --- Penguins are THE worst in the league; 93!!
Going by goal differential --- Penguins are THE worst in the league; -34!!

The only team to log but 2 wins in the last 10 games; gaining points at a .250 clip in that span.

Hagens, Misa or McQueen. We may even get to choose which.

[FLPensFan]

After last night's loss:
--Penguins are now 5 points out of WC 2 spot, held by Boston
--There are 5 other teams between Pittsburgh and the WC spot (TB, NYI, PHI, CBJ, DET)
--Penguins are 6th worst overall by points.
--Penguins are 3rd worst overall by points percentage. Chicago is 2 points below them, but with 2 games in hand. SJ is 1 point lower than PIT, with same number of games played.

I could see the Penguins losing their next 7 games (VAN, BOS, CGY, FLA, NYR, TOR, COL) before they play Montreal...a chance to win but no guarantee with the way this team is playing.

[Pitts]

I could see the Penguins losing their next 7 games (VAN, BOS, CGY, FLA, NYR, TOR, COL) before they play Montreal...a chance to win but no guarantee with the way this team is playing.

EEEEEK. It's gonna get bad folks. Buckle up and put the blinders on.

[FLPensFan]

Penguins enter tonight's game with 19 points in 23 games, .391 points percentage.
They are 4th worst overall based on points, with MTL and CHI having 2 games in hand, NSH with 1 game in hand.
They are 3rd worst overall based on points percentage.

Starting tonight, Penguins next 7 games: VAN, BOS, CGY, FLA, NYR, TOR, COL. A betting man says they would be lucky to get 2 wins out of that stretch (maybe BOS and CGY)

Their -34 goal differential still worst in the league. MTL and SJ are tied for 2nd worst at -22, 12 whole goals above the Penguins.

[FLPensFan]

With last night's win, the Penguins moved up one spot to 5th worst overall by points, 4th worst overall by points percentage.

[KBone]

Well it's US Thanksgiving and Pens aren't in a playoff spot.

I'd love to know the winning percentage they'd have to hit (with their remaining schedule) to hit the 95ish points needed to hit a playoff spot. It's got to be absurd.

Which leads me to my main point - lose as much as possible now. Not making it, secure the best possible pick.

[FLPensFan]

Well it's US Thanksgiving and Pens aren't in a playoff spot.

I'd love to know the winning percentage they'd have to hit (with their remaining schedule) to hit the 95ish points needed to hit a playoff spot. It's got to be absurd.

Which leads me to my main point - lose as much as possible now. Not making it, secure the best possible pick.

First, the Penguins are 4 points out of WC2 spot. I believe 4 points is the magic number...where if, you are 4 or more points out of a playoff spot come Thanksgiving, there's less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs. Both WC1 and WC2 teams also have 3 games in hand on the Penguins...so that gap is a bit wider than it seems. Only Montreal is worse than the Penguins in the East

As for the 95 points question, the Penguins have 58 games remaining. The Penguins would need to go 36-19-3 the rest of the way to hit 95 points, or roughly a .620 winning percentage.

[Puck-Lurker]

Well it's US Thanksgiving and Pens aren't in a playoff spot.

I'd love to know the winning percentage they'd have to hit (with their remaining schedule) to hit the 95ish points needed to hit a playoff spot. It's got to be absurd.

Which leads me to my main point - lose as much as possible now. Not making it, secure the best possible pick.

Easy math. (I'll use 96 for ease of math)

- 24GP (58GR) - 20Pts
- 76 points needed to get to 96
- 76/2 = 38 wins needed.
- 38/58 = 0.655

Penguins need to win 65.5% of their remaining games and hope 96 points is even enough to get a playoff birth.

In related news, on that day there will be an outdoor winter classic played in hell on natural ice.


------

If we assume 94 is not going to be enough, Penguins need only lose 21 more games.

(Presently on track for ~68 points)

[KBone]

Thanks for crunching those numbers for me.

[FLPensFan]

Ahead of tonight's game, with the Penguins 3 game win streak, the team currently sits in 9th worst overall spot via points, 7th worst overall via points %.
SJ (27) is the only team below PIT that has played the same or more games. All other 7 teams have 1-3 games in hand on the Penguins.

The Penguins are currently 3 points out of WC1 & 2 spots. Rangers have 2 games in hand, Philly has 1 game in hand.

The team still has the worst goal differential in the league (-28), which is an improvement on the -34 they had a week ago. Montreal currently sits at 2nd worst with a -25 goal differential.

[FLPensFan]

With this win streak, the Penguins are now just 1 point out of a WC spot. NYR (WC1) have 3 games in hand on PIT, PHI (WC2) have 2 games in hand. Tampa is tied with PIT in points, but has 4 games in hand.

The Penguins are currently 12th worst overall by points, 11th worst overall by points percentage.

Pretty much the worst position this team can be in right now....miss the playoffs, miss out on a top 10 pick.

[Daniel]

With this win streak, the Penguins are now just 1 point out of a WC spot. NYR (WC1) have 3 games in hand on PIT, PHI (WC2) have 2 games in hand. Tampa is tied with PIT in points, but has 4 games in hand.

The Penguins are currently 12th worst overall by points, 11th worst overall by points percentage.

Pretty much the worst position this team can be in right now....miss the playoffs, miss out on a top 10 pick.

Also bad because they have hope and even less reason to fire Sullivan. Ten years ago it was cup or bust. Now being a WC team that loses in the first round is considered a win. I think most of us can agree that this season is a win if they get a top 5 pick and load up on picks and prospects.

For years this team has been too arrogant to take a step back, get a nice pick, come back strong after. Not even a top pick, but let's say IDK 4th overall in 2018 (Brady Tkachuk). How much better would they have been with him and maybe 1 other player from that draft year?

[Puck-Lurker]

With this win streak, the Penguins are now just 1 point out of a WC spot. NYR (WC1) have 3 games in hand on PIT, PHI (WC2) have 2 games in hand. Tampa is tied with PIT in points, but has 4 games in hand.

The Penguins are currently 12th worst overall by points, 11th worst overall by points percentage.

Pretty much the worst position this team can be in right now....miss the playoffs, miss out on a top 10 pick.

Also bad because they have hope and even less reason to fire Sullivan. Ten years ago it was cup or bust. Now being a WC team that loses in the first round is considered a win. I think most of us can agree that this season is a win if they get a top 5 pick and load up on picks and prospects.

For years this team has been too arrogant to take a step back, get a nice pick, come back strong after. Not even a top pick, but let's say IDK 4th overall in 2018 (Brady Tkachuk). How much better would they have been with him and maybe 1 other player from that draft year?

If Sullivan hadn't stapled himself onto the bench.. then Dubas will have him glued there.. if not FSG..

And they'd have substantial support from the average fans.

[100565]

I think most of us can agree that this season is a win if they get a top 5 pick and load up on picks and prospects.

Heck ya. I don’t like rooting against them, but a 4 game winning streak is not what the doctor order.

It would have been different is Graves improved and was solid top 4. If McGroater was playing in NHL and doing very well. If DOC had continued to improve and was now a legit top 6 F. If Pulujarvi was allowed to play and rewarded for solid work. Etc. etc. but none of that has happened. Therefore, you are right. Top 5 pick. Maybe another 1st.

[Daniel]

I think most of us can agree that this season is a win if they get a top 5 pick and load up on picks and prospects.

Heck ya. I don’t like rooting against them, but a 4 game winning streak is not what the doctor order.

It would have been different is Graves improved and was solid top 4. If McGroater was playing in NHL and doing very well. If DOC had continued to improve and was now a legit top 6 F. If Pulujarvi was allowed to play and rewarded for solid work. Etc. etc. but none of that has happened. Therefore, you are right. Top 5 pick. Maybe another 1st.

I also don't like rooting against them, but I root for a positive future. They won't win the cup, they won't even get out of the first round, and they likely won't make the playoffs. From what I've read, this is a very deep draft, but I don't think there is a Sid Crosby or Conner McDavid either, just a lot of solid players. This is the perfect year to be a top 5 pick, though I wish they had a 2nd round pick.

Trade, Rakell, Rust, get a guy like Porter Martone or Michael Misa to either give Sid/Geno a RW or have a 3rd line C who can be a top line C after a few years. Hope a guy like Karl Annborn drops to the 3rd round who can grow with Pickering if he can make the jump. He's a RD who is considered a non-spectacular but effective two-way defenseman, so a 3rd round pick is about right for him. He night not be a top pairing guy but who knows. Heck, Letang was an early 3rd round pick.

One bad year to get 2 (or more) blue chip prospects sounds way more successful than figuring out who to blame for a first round exit when the truth is they just don't have the talent.

[FLPensFan]

I think most of us can agree that this season is a win if they get a top 5 pick and load up on picks and prospects.

Heck ya. I don’t like rooting against them, but a 4 game winning streak is not what the doctor order.

It would have been different is Graves improved and was solid top 4. If McGroater was playing in NHL and doing very well. If DOC had continued to improve and was now a legit top 6 F. If Pulujarvi was allowed to play and rewarded for solid work. Etc. etc. but none of that has happened. Therefore, you are right. Top 5 pick. Maybe another 1st.

I also don't like rooting against them, but I root for a positive future. They won't win the cup, they won't even get out of the first round, and they likely won't make the playoffs. From what I've read, this is a very deep draft, but I don't think there is a Sid Crosby or Conner McDavid either, just a lot of solid players. This is the perfect year to be a top 5 pick, though I wish they had a 2nd round pick.

Trade, Rakell, Rust, get a guy like Porter Martone or Michael Misa to either give Sid/Geno a RW or have a 3rd line C who can be a top line C after a few years. Hope a guy like Karl Annborn drops to the 3rd round who can grow with Pickering if he can make the jump. He's a RD who is considered a non-spectacular but effective two-way defenseman, so a 3rd round pick is about right for him. He night not be a top pairing guy but who knows. Heck, Letang was an early 3rd round pick.

One bad year to get 2 (or more) blue chip prospects sounds way more successful than figuring out who to blame for a first round exit when the truth is they just don't have the talent.

Dream scenario...be in a position to draft Misa or Hagens with the 1st pick. Gain an early 2nd or late 1st, and draft LW/C Bill Zonnon. He's a Martone type player. 6'2", 190, and he's starting to rise into potentially being a 1st round pick. Last season in the Q with Rouyn-Noranda, he had 18 goals, 58 points in 68 games. This year, he already has 14 goals, 37 points in 26 games. I typically see him ranked between 30-45 right now, but he's moving up.

A couple videos on him, #6 in black or white:

[Daniel]

I think most of us can agree that this season is a win if they get a top 5 pick and load up on picks and prospects.

Heck ya. I don’t like rooting against them, but a 4 game winning streak is not what the doctor order.

It would have been different is Graves improved and was solid top 4. If McGroater was playing in NHL and doing very well. If DOC had continued to improve and was now a legit top 6 F. If Pulujarvi was allowed to play and rewarded for solid work. Etc. etc. but none of that has happened. Therefore, you are right. Top 5 pick. Maybe another 1st.

I also don't like rooting against them, but I root for a positive future. They won't win the cup, they won't even get out of the first round, and they likely won't make the playoffs. From what I've read, this is a very deep draft, but I don't think there is a Sid Crosby or Conner McDavid either, just a lot of solid players. This is the perfect year to be a top 5 pick, though I wish they had a 2nd round pick.

Trade, Rakell, Rust, get a guy like Porter Martone or Michael Misa to either give Sid/Geno a RW or have a 3rd line C who can be a top line C after a few years. Hope a guy like Karl Annborn drops to the 3rd round who can grow with Pickering if he can make the jump. He's a RD who is considered a non-spectacular but effective two-way defenseman, so a 3rd round pick is about right for him. He night not be a top pairing guy but who knows. Heck, Letang was an early 3rd round pick.

One bad year to get 2 (or more) blue chip prospects sounds way more successful than figuring out who to blame for a first round exit when the truth is they just don't have the talent.

Dream scenario...be in a position to draft Misa or Hagens with the 1st pick. Gain an early 2nd or late 1st, and draft LW/C Bill Zonnon. He's a Martone type player. 6'2", 190, and he's starting to rise into potentially being a 1st round pick. Last season in the Q with Rouyn-Noranda, he had 18 goals, 58 points in 68 games. This year, he already has 14 goals, 37 points in 26 games. I typically see him ranked between 30-45 right now, but he's moving up.

A couple videos on him, #6 in black or white:

I’m not sure about James Hagen’s but can’t really put my finger on it. He seems like a Nico Hischier type, a really good player but not a superstar. Of course we’re way early in a draft process discussion 17-18 year olds, so we’ll see. Marlone intrigues me because he has the Jagr size and watching videos of him, I think he’ll be a legit stud.

[FLPensFan]

With tonight's win, the Penguins are now tied with Philly and Tampa for WC2 spot. Tampa, however, has FIVE games in hand on the Penguins. Philly has 2.

[KG]

Spencer Carbery has to be the early winner of coach of the year. Caps are now 1st in the Metro with a 19-6-2 record and +35 goal differential. Remember how their goal differential was horrible last season? Kind of like what the Pens is this season, -26...

Whatever buttons he's pushing, it is working. A young coach, with new fresh ideas. What a novel idea!

[Skatingpen]

Agree, he is a good coach. It helps to have 20 million on IR though.

[FLPensFan]

Agree, he is a good coach. It helps to have 20 million on IR though.

Meh. I don't think the LTIR is having that much of an impact TBH. PLD is a downgrade from a healthy, younger Backstrom, and Mangiapane isn't really an upgrade on Oshie, either. They didn't upgrade at either position. Also, it's unlikely that either Backstrom or Oshie return, so it isn't like the Bolts where they magically arise and play come playoff time.

[largegarlic]

It seems like Nashville and Chicago are starting to lock down 2 of the bottom 5 spots.