The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race

[FLPensFan]

It seems like Nashville and Chicago are starting to lock down 2 of the bottom 5 spots.

I went to Sharks vs Panthers last night. I must not have watched the Penguins vs Sharks earlier this season, but woof, the Sharks are really bad. I expect they'll be back towards the bottom soon. It was only one game, but I wasn't very impressed at all with Macklin Celebrini last night. Also, the Sharks seem to have the market cornered on guys that once had a lot of potential:

--Luke Kunin, 15th overall, on his 3rd team at age 27
--Carl Grundstrom, 2nd rounder by TOR, on his 3rd organization at age 27
--Klim Kostin, 1st rounder (the Penguins pick from Reaves trade), on his 4th team at age 25
--Ty Dellandrea, 1st rounder by DAL, 2nd org at age 24
--Jake Wallman, 3rd rounder, 3rd org at age 28
--Timothey Liljegren, 1st rounder by TOR, 2nd org at age 25
--Vitek Vanecek, 2nd rounder by WSH, 3rd team at age 28

Add in much traveled vets like Tyler Toffoli, Mikael Granlund, Alex Wennberg and Cody Ceci....and you have a full island of misfits...and not in a good, Vegas kinda way.

[FLPensFan]

With the win tonight, the Penguins are now 1 point out of WC2 spot (held by OTT), and 3 points out of WC1 spot (held by BOS). Penguins even with BOS in games played, while OTT has 2 games in hand on the Penguins. There are no other teams between the Penguins and WC2 spot.

[largegarlic]

Now I feel like San Jose and Buffalo (they've lost 12 straight?!) are getting pretty firmly ensconced in the bottom 5 too (along with Chicago and Nashville). It's going to be hard for the Pens to be bad enough to get into the bottom 5 at this point, though they are only 3 points out of the bottom 10 and could easily end up there when/if they cool off a bit.

[penscup]

Heyo. Nobody wants to update this thread.

I wonder why.

[Antonio]

Because this team appears that it will be a serious contender for a meaningful spot in neither race.

[KBone]

The worst place to be, just outside of the playoffs.

[Skatingpen]

Middling comes to mind.

[Puck-Lurker]

We're neither in the playoffs race, nor the lottery race.

I wish this Jekkyl and Hyde team made up its mind

[KBone]

I'd say they are in the playoff race currently. Lottery race... not so much anymore.

[Puck-Lurker]

Code: Select all

#	|	GP	|	Pts	|	Pt%
-----------------------------------------------------
TOR	|	38	|	48	|	0,632
FLA	|	38	|	48	|	0,632
BOS	|	39	|	44	|	0,564
-----------------------------------------------------
WSH	|	37	|	52	|	0,703
NJD	|	40	|	51	|	0,638
CAR	|	37	|	46	|	0,622
-----------------------------------------------------
TBL	|	34	|	42	|	0,618
OTT	|	36	|	40	|	0,556
-----------------------------------------------------

Code: Select all

-----------------------------------------------------
PIT	|	39	|	39	|	0,500
CBJ	|	38	|	38	|	0,500
PHI	|	38	|	38	|	0,500
MTL	|	37	|	37	|	0,500
NYI	|	38	|	35	|	0,461
DET	|	37	|	34	|	0,459
NYR	|	36	|	33	|	0,458
BUF	|	38	|	32	|	0,421

This seems familiar... 1 point out of a playoff spot. Four teams on .500 is still mental at the halfway point.

[largegarlic]

Just looking at the standings today, I wouldn't give up hope of the Pens getting a top pick just yet. The Pens are 13th from bottom right now, but lots of teams below them still have a game or two in hand. The Pens are 2 points above Montreal in 10th and only 4 points above the Isles in 5th. So, a little losing streak, which the Pens might very well be on right now, given the next two games are @Florida and @Carolina, coupled with some wins for the teams beneath them, and they could easily be back in the bottom 10.

[FLPensFan]

With back to back losses to OTT and TB, the Penguins are now 3 points behind Boston for WC1 spot (even in games), and 2 points behind Columbus (who has 2 games in hand). OTT, DET, and MTL are officially between the Penguins and WC2 spot based on points percentage.

The Rangers, Isles, and Flyers are the next 3 teams below Pittsburgh...but Rangers and Islanders each have 3 games in hand and would pass Pittsburgh winning those games in hand. Flyers have 2 games in hand, and would pass Pittsburgh winning those 2 games.

Only the Isles, Flyers, and Buffalo have a worse points percentage than the Penguins. Seems like that strong run is over, and Penguins are beginning to fade back to the back of the pack again.

In terms of draft pick status, based on points percentage, the Penguins would have the 9th overall pick (without changes via draft lottery), and could move down to 6th overall pick if the teams that have games in hand win those games. The 5 worst teams in the league are all under 40 points right now (PIT has 44), SEA in 5th with 39 points, and CHI worst with only 30 points.

[FLPensFan]

With tonight's loss, the Penguins have dropped to 7th worst overall based on points percentage.

[KBone]

Now, let's get to bottom 3

[FLPensFan]

Now, let's get to bottom 3

Probably a stretch to think we can get that low. Penguins have 44 points with 36 games remaining. Chicago has 30 points, with 38 games remaining. SJ has 34 points with 36 games remaining. Those 2 teams are winning 2-3 games per 10 game stretch.

Nashville in 3rd overall (Worst) has 35 points with 39 games remaining. They are 5-5 in their last 10
Buffalo in 4th worst overall has 37 points with 39 games remaining. They are 5-4-1 in their last 10

If Nashville and Buffalo keep playing .500 hockey, MAYBE the Penguins could catch them, especially with both teams having 3 games in hand. Realistically, the Penguins can probably get down to 5th overall pick pretty easily. 5th overall right now is Seattle, who is 3 points below the Penguins with 1 game in hand.

5th overall would put us in line for a pretty good prospect. Hagens, Martone, Misa, Schaefer and McQueen are probably ranked 1-5. Schaefer may drop with his injury (broken clavicle, out 3 months), but he's the best d-man in the draft.

If they weren't all in the same draft class, I could see any of those 5 as a 1st overall pick in a draft year. Hagens was the consensus #1 for awhile, Martone had been there a bit, more recently Schaefer has been considered #1, and I've heard other talent evaluators say they think McQueen could go 1st. Most recent rankings of North America skaters (out today by USA Today) has it as Schaefer, Hagens, Misa, Martone, McQueen.

[BigMcK]

In review of the 2003 draft, where the Penguins traded Mikael Samuelsson, 3rd pick in the first round (Natan Horton), 55th pick in the second round (Stephan Meyer), to Florida for the first overall pick round (MAF), third round pick (#73 - Daniel Carcillo), a single trade began the historical ride for Penguins Stanley Cup greatness.

Florida, not so much.

In 2025, to move up in the draft from maybe a 10 spot in the first round, how much are you willing to offer to trade for a 3 spot?

[Puck-Lurker]

In review of the 2003 draft, where the Penguins traded Mikael Samuelsson, 3rd pick in the first round (Natan Horton), 55th pick in the second round (Stephan Meyer), to Florida for the first overall pick round (MAF), third round pick (#73 - Daniel Carcillo), a single trade began the historical ride for Penguins Stanley Cup greatness.

Florida, not so much.

In 2025, to move up in the draft from maybe a 10 spot in the first round, how much are you willing to offer to trade for a 3 spot?

Add an elite PKer. We have two of those

[FLPensFan]

In review of the 2003 draft, where the Penguins traded Mikael Samuelsson, 3rd pick in the first round (Natan Horton), 55th pick in the second round (Stephan Meyer), to Florida for the first overall pick round (MAF), third round pick (#73 - Daniel Carcillo), a single trade began the historical ride for Penguins Stanley Cup greatness.

Florida, not so much.

In 2025, to move up in the draft from maybe a 10 spot in the first round, how much are you willing to offer to trade for a 3 spot?

I think a lot of it depends on the strength of the draft. In a weak draft, it is probably going to cost you more to move up. I don't know how strong the 2003 draft was thought to be at that time. 21 players from that draft scored at least 100 goals. Four 400+ goal scorers, two 300+ goal scorers. In hindsight, that seems pretty strong. Compared to Malkin's draft year in 2004, where only 8 players scored at least 100 goals. Ovi and Malkin both over 500 goals, Blake Wheeler in the 300+ goal range, and Ladd and Zajac the only 2 in the 200+ goal range. That draft class overall was very top heavy, like only 3-4 really good first rounders. 5 guys in that class played over 1000 games. 2003 draft class, 13 players over 1000 games. Those are a few indicators I use to rate a draft class after the fact.

Flipping ahead to this year...I really don't think there is a ton of separation between the top 4 guys of Hagens, Schaefer, Martone, and Misa, with McQueen for me just barely on the outside of those guys. There are a few other good players in that 2nd tier mix too, like Eklund, Frondell, Desnoyers, Hensler and Ryabkin.

Finally, who in the top 5 has multiple 1st rounders? Chicago has 2 and Nashville has 3. Both of those teams need to rebuild. You almost WANT Nashville to maybe fall to the 3-4 range. Then you have to ask, what can you give Nashville that makes them drop down 3-4 spots (season ended today, they'd have 3rd, 20th, and 30th picks). Could we trade 8th overall, Howe/Lucius/Broz, and a 2026 2nd to move up? I'd say it may take something like that, a swap of 1sts, a good prospect, and a 2nd rounder to move up.

If I could get Misa, Martone, or Schaefer, I'd probably do it. If we went after Schaefer, then I may change that prospect to Pickering, as Schaefer is a LD prospect who has much, much higher upside than Pickering. Have to give to get.

[FLPensFan]

Over the last 10 games, Penguins are tied for worst record in Eastern Conference:
--Devils are 2-5-3
--Penguins are 2-5-3
--Bruins are 3-5-2

Based on points, Penguins currently sit 9th overall in terms of NHL draft.
Based on points percentage, Penguins are 8th overall.

Islanders are 3 points behind Pittsburgh in 7th, but have 3 games in hand.
Anaheim is 4 points behind Pittsburgh in 6th, and they have 2 games in hand.
Seattle is 5 points behind Pittsburgh in 5th, and they have 2 games in hand.
Buffalo is 7 points behind Pittsburgh in 4th, and they have 3 games in hand.
Nashville is also 7 points behind Pittsburgh in 3rd, and they have 3 games in hand.
Chicago is 13 points behind Pittsburgh in 2nd, with 2 games in hand
SJ is 12 points behind Pittsburgh in 1st overall (points percentage), and they are even with Pittsburgh in games played.

[Maestro]

So the Pens could easily end up right behind SJ and Chi and truly start the rebuild. Heck maybe their lottery luck strikes again.

[FLPensFan]

So the Pens could easily end up right behind SJ and Chi and truly start the rebuild. Heck maybe their lottery luck strikes again.

I think if they can get into the top 5 they'll be in really good shape. And I think top 5 (or bottom 5?) is very possible. Of course, there's always the chance they get into the top 5, in perfect alignment to get one of the top guys, and Dubas goes off board to pick Robert Dome or something. That would be par for the course at this point.

I'll also add that, unless the Penguins go on a really hot run, playoffs are toast. Penguins currently sit 4 points out WC2 spot, with FIVE teams between them and the WC spot. EVERY TEAM above them, including the 2 in the WC spots, have games in hand on the Penguins.

--WC1, Columbus, 51 points, 2 games in hand
--WC2, Ottawa, 50 points, 3 games in hand
--Boston, 50 points, 1 game in hand
--Montreal, 48 points, 3 games in hand
--Philly, 48 points, 1 game in hand
--Rangers, 47 points, 3 games in hand
--Detroit, 46 points, 3 games in hand
=================================
Penguins, 46 points with 48 games played

[Puck-Lurker]

If the rumour that Dubas is looking to trade everyone and their dog..

..our draft position might improve yet

[EndO FanEra]

So the Pens could easily end up right behind SJ and Chi and truly start the rebuild. Heck maybe their lottery luck strikes again.

I think if they can get into the top 5 they'll be in really good shape. And I think top 5 (or bottom 5?) is very possible. Of course, there's always the chance they get into the top 5, in perfect alignment to get one of the top guys, and Dubas goes off board to pick Robert Dome or something. That would be par for the course at this point.

I'll also add that, unless the Penguins go on a really hot run, playoffs are toast. Penguins currently sit 4 points out WC2 spot, with FIVE teams between them and the WC spot. EVERY TEAM above them, including the 2 in the WC spots, have games in hand on the Penguins.

--WC1, Columbus, 51 points, 2 games in hand
--WC2, Ottawa, 50 points, 3 games in hand
--Boston, 50 points, 1 game in hand
--Montreal, 48 points, 3 games in hand
--Philly, 48 points, 1 game in hand
--Rangers, 47 points, 3 games in hand
--Detroit, 46 points, 3 games in hand
=================================
Penguins, 46 points with 48 games played

I find it hard to root against the Pens while watching the games, but I might have to start. I'll usually root for them to win, but if they don't, cool - better draft position.

If we have a chance at a top 10, let alone a top 5, boy, that could make a huge difference in the team's future. You have to go for it.

Trade Petterson, Rakell, as many others as we can, and replace w/ a combination of WBS & bad contracts coming back (hopefully rentals that come off the books). Fire Sully and promote an interim HC to finish out the season. That should be enough of a shake-up to lose some extra games.

[FLPensFan]

These next 4 games are pretty much the season on the line. After tonight's loss to Anaheim, the Penguins are 5 points out of WC2 spot. Not including the 2 teams currently occupying WC1 and WC2 spots, there are 5 teams above them in the standings. All of those teams have 1 or 2 games in hand on the Penguins.

Anaheim was the type of game they should have won, especially after just beating LA. SEA, SJ, and UTA are 3 more "easy" teams. Only getting 1 win out of those 3 games would be very bad. Things culminate with Nashville and the Penguins first game back at home. Nashville had been awful all season, but has gotten hot lately. As of right now, NSH has 4 games in hand on PIT. If they were to win all 4 games, they'd pass PIT in points. Going head to head is a double whammy if the Penguins lose.

This team is not a playoff team. If the the goal is to get there one more time with Sid and the core...this ain't the year. Sell off, load up, and get after it next year or the year after. Because....top 2-3 coaches don't grow on trees.

[FLPensFan]

The Penguins retain their hold on 7th overall pick via points percentage - 48 points in 51 games, .471 points percentage.

Seattle is now 1 point behind with 1 game in hand, so they could knock the Penguins down to 6th overall.

Anaheim has 3 games in hand, and could jump 2 points ahead of the Penguins if they won all 3. They're record over their past 10 says unlikely, but they are playing Nashville tonight, Seattle tomorrow...so they could win 2 of 3 potentially.

Nashville has 4 games in hand over the Penguins, and if they won all of them, they'd be 3 points ahead of Pittsburgh. Winning against Pittsburgh on February 1st would also help that cause. Nashville has won 5 in a row, and gone 7-3 in their last 10 games. Potential is there.

If you look at those 3 teams below the Penguins, I think the odds are a little better than 50/50 that the Penguins could fall all the way to 4th overall.

I don't think there is any chance to catch BUF, CHI, or SJ for 3rd, 2nd or 1st overall. But, if the Penguins could slip down to 4th...they'll get a really good player...guaranteed to get one of Schaefer (who right now is the consensus #1 overall), Hagens, Misa, or Martone...or your pick of anyone else.

Start selling, Dubas.