The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
More evidence that the playoffs are not happening:
--Penguins have 31 games remaining, and 48 points. They currently have a .471 points percentage.
---->If they play at a .471 points percentage pace the rest of the way, they'd win 14-15 out of 31 games. 15 games, 2 points per win, they'd end up with 78 points. That clearly isn't going to get a team into the playoffs
----->If they somehow went on a streak, winning at a .600 points percentage pace, that would give them 18-19 wins. 19 wins, 38 points plus 48 points...86 points. That still doesn't seem like enough to grab a WC spot.
------> The best points percentage in the league right now is Washington at .724 (only team above 700). If Penguins won at that clip, that would give them 22 wins, 44 more points, 92 points total.
Traditionally, around 94-98 points is what gets you in the playoffs. Penguins would be right on the cusp....but I don't foresee any way the Penguins could win at that rate.
Boston is currently in WC1 spot after an OTT victory today. Boston is at .549 points percentage. If Boston plays at that same pace, they should end up with 90 points. That's short of the traditional 94-96 range, but a good 4-12 points ahead of Pittsburgh
Tampa is currently in WC2 spot, with a .573 points percentage. Maintaining that percentage, Tampa would end up with 93 points, jumping ahead of Boston for WC1 spot.
Pittsburgh and Buffalo are the only 2 teams in the East under a .500 points percentage.
--Penguins have 31 games remaining, and 48 points. They currently have a .471 points percentage.
---->If they play at a .471 points percentage pace the rest of the way, they'd win 14-15 out of 31 games. 15 games, 2 points per win, they'd end up with 78 points. That clearly isn't going to get a team into the playoffs
----->If they somehow went on a streak, winning at a .600 points percentage pace, that would give them 18-19 wins. 19 wins, 38 points plus 48 points...86 points. That still doesn't seem like enough to grab a WC spot.
------> The best points percentage in the league right now is Washington at .724 (only team above 700). If Penguins won at that clip, that would give them 22 wins, 44 more points, 92 points total.
Traditionally, around 94-98 points is what gets you in the playoffs. Penguins would be right on the cusp....but I don't foresee any way the Penguins could win at that rate.
Boston is currently in WC1 spot after an OTT victory today. Boston is at .549 points percentage. If Boston plays at that same pace, they should end up with 90 points. That's short of the traditional 94-96 range, but a good 4-12 points ahead of Pittsburgh
Tampa is currently in WC2 spot, with a .573 points percentage. Maintaining that percentage, Tampa would end up with 93 points, jumping ahead of Boston for WC1 spot.
Pittsburgh and Buffalo are the only 2 teams in the East under a .500 points percentage.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
Mismanagement of junior players ice time with a stale coach (weekend with Sully), JMKD refusal to demand stale sully to deploy a system to play younger players, and now injuries to the 2nd line center are enough of a reason. If there is a deal to solidify the future and Dubas doesn't act on it because management didn't allow younger players to fill in in the case of a key player being injured, ...
My trust level is trending now to lowered expectations.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
Dubas has picked a wishy washy course and is sticking to it.BigMcK wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 2:45 amMismanagement of junior players ice time with a stale coach (weekend with Sully), JMKD refusal to demand stale sully to deploy a system to play younger players, and now injuries to the 2nd line center are enough of a reason. If there is a deal to solidify the future and Dubas doesn't act on it because management didn't allow younger players to fill in in the case of a key player being injured, ...
My trust level is trending now to lowered expectations.
- Trade players for future benefit; Young NHL Player > Prospect > Draft Pick.
- Short term prove it deals for players to take a chance on
- Dress a team that can still compete to TRY and get to the playoffs.
Bringing up young players was not part of the plan. At least not some priority.
Firing Sullivan wasn't either.
Nor trading everything
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
A Seattle win tonight vs Edmonton, and a Pittsburgh loss tonight to SJ has the following implications:
--Pittsburgh drops to 6th overall, Seattle moves up to 7th
--Ducks would be 2 points behind PIT, with 3 games in hand for the 5th spot
--Preds would be 5 points behind PIT, with 4 games in hand for the 4th spot
--Sabers would be 7 points behind PIT, with 3 games in hand for the 3rd spot
--CHI in 2nd and SJ in 1st do not seem possible to catch. Those 2 could still flip flop, but CHI will have 4 games in hand on SJ after tonight.
--Pittsburgh drops to 6th overall, Seattle moves up to 7th
--Ducks would be 2 points behind PIT, with 3 games in hand for the 5th spot
--Preds would be 5 points behind PIT, with 4 games in hand for the 4th spot
--Sabers would be 7 points behind PIT, with 3 games in hand for the 3rd spot
--CHI in 2nd and SJ in 1st do not seem possible to catch. Those 2 could still flip flop, but CHI will have 4 games in hand on SJ after tonight.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
This West Coast Trip will likely put the Official end to any Playoff Aspirations.With About 25 Games left after the 4 Nations Tournament this Organization will continue to ride this Season out with Sullivan and his System as the Head Coach,continuing to stick with the Sympathetic Loyalty to declining/inflexible veterans in Letang and Malkin as "Core Guys" and going with the current usage of Acciari,Nieto,Beauvilier and Hayes as bottom 6 Forwards.With St.Ivany injured the Defensive Group has High Priced Players with only Owen Pickering there with any Youth at all.
They are clearly not planning on promoting the Younger Forwards that have potential from WBS (McGroarty,Kouivenen,Ponomorev,Broz) or giving any more time to bringing back any of Puustinen,Poulin or Puljujarvi.The only Youth this Organization has given a look have been 2 Players in Pickering and Blomqvist who both have shown Promise.
The Final 2 Months will be a futile and unproductive stretch for this Group.The 3rd Straight Non Playoff Apperance screams for a different approach and Accountability for the lack of success or attempt to assess the talent they have.And is not going to happen.
They are clearly not planning on promoting the Younger Forwards that have potential from WBS (McGroarty,Kouivenen,Ponomorev,Broz) or giving any more time to bringing back any of Puustinen,Poulin or Puljujarvi.The only Youth this Organization has given a look have been 2 Players in Pickering and Blomqvist who both have shown Promise.
The Final 2 Months will be a futile and unproductive stretch for this Group.The 3rd Straight Non Playoff Apperance screams for a different approach and Accountability for the lack of success or attempt to assess the talent they have.And is not going to happen.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
This road trip would get any coach sacked,any other coach in the league after season like this,just not Sullivan,best coach ever lol!
I mean, team kinda sucks I know, any other coach wouldn't do magic at this stage, but 3 yrs ago or heck even 15 games ago,yeah it would be a different outcome I'm 100% sure!
We are now 7 pts out of playoffs with 4 games up.
15th in the East with 1 pts behind NYI with 4 games up.
Trade Deadline - Dubas you know what you have to do,no buts or ifs
I mean, team kinda sucks I know, any other coach wouldn't do magic at this stage, but 3 yrs ago or heck even 15 games ago,yeah it would be a different outcome I'm 100% sure!
We are now 7 pts out of playoffs with 4 games up.
15th in the East with 1 pts behind NYI with 4 games up.
Trade Deadline - Dubas you know what you have to do,no buts or ifs
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
Officially ran all the numbers today. If all teams go the rest of the season winning at their current points percentage, Tampa will win WC1 spot with 94 points. Boston and Columbus will be fighting for WC2 spot, both with 90 points. Montreal, Rangers, and Detroit could be in the mix, with the Rangers projecting to be 3 points out.FLPensFan wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2025 10:00 pmMore evidence that the playoffs are not happening:
--Penguins have 31 games remaining, and 48 points. They currently have a .471 points percentage.
---->If they play at a .471 points percentage pace the rest of the way, they'd win 14-15 out of 31 games. 15 games, 2 points per win, they'd end up with 78 points. That clearly isn't going to get a team into the playoffs
----->If they somehow went on a streak, winning at a .600 points percentage pace, that would give them 18-19 wins. 19 wins, 38 points plus 48 points...86 points. That still doesn't seem like enough to grab a WC spot.
------> The best points percentage in the league right now is Washington at .724 (only team above 700). If Penguins won at that clip, that would give them 22 wins, 44 more points, 92 points total.
Traditionally, around 94-98 points is what gets you in the playoffs. Penguins would be right on the cusp....but I don't foresee any way the Penguins could win at that rate.
Boston is currently in WC1 spot after an OTT victory today. Boston is at .549 points percentage. If Boston plays at that same pace, they should end up with 90 points. That's short of the traditional 94-96 range, but a good 4-12 points ahead of Pittsburgh
Tampa is currently in WC2 spot, with a .573 points percentage. Maintaining that percentage, Tampa would end up with 93 points, jumping ahead of Boston for WC1 spot.
Pittsburgh and Buffalo are the only 2 teams in the East under a .500 points percentage.
Penguins, based on projections, would finish with 78 points, 12 points out of a playoff spot. To hit 90 points, the Penguins would need to win 21 of their last 30 games, a .700 points percentage. Washington is the only team in the league above .700 points percentage, and Winnipeg is just a hair under at .696.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
Yeah. 3 years of no playoffs. 3-5 more coming depending on how KD decides to rebuild. GMJR had the crystal ball or magic 8 ball
. This could have been avoided.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
He would do himself and all of us a big favor by trading away assets now and not prioritizing winning for the rest of the season. Middle of the pack at the draft does us no good.pronovost19 wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 8:08 amYeah. 3 years of no playoffs. 3-5 more coming depending on how KD decides to rebuild. GMJR had the crystal ball or magic 8 ball. This could have been avoided.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
At this point you have to hope we get a top 5 pick. I know the goal is to win, but finishing with say the 11th overall pick is a big difference than getting a potential blue chip top 5 pick. Seattle and Anaheim can easily pass the Pens in the standings.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
This team is unwatchable these days. There is nothing that works anymore.
Coaching is bad.
Execution is bad.
Effort is bad.
It's not one or two guys. It's everyone, even Sid.
This team doesn't appear to have the ability to win games, interest in winning games, or even trying to win games. There is no point to this.
Coaching is bad.
Execution is bad.
Effort is bad.
It's not one or two guys. It's everyone, even Sid.
This team doesn't appear to have the ability to win games, interest in winning games, or even trying to win games. There is no point to this.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
Last night was the first time I can remember that I openly rooted for the Pens to lose.
I've been going into games with an indifferent mindset so far this season. Root for them to score, and disappointed when they get scored on. If they win, "Cool, well done boys". If they lose, "Cool, better draft pick".
I don't know if it was the fact that they were playing one of the few teams below them at this point, or if it was the total flatness that the game had, but it took less than 5 minutes before I was actively rooting for SJ to score and hoping the Pens did not.
Now that we are in the running for a top 5/10 pick, we HAVE TO make that happen. We're talking about a 1/2 a season at this point. We've already suffered enough over the past 8 years, just suck as bad as we can for the next few months. Get as low of a pick as we can, then get back to trying to win next season.
The difference between finishing 5th/6th and 15th/16th could dramatically change the trajectory of this franchise for years to come.
I've been going into games with an indifferent mindset so far this season. Root for them to score, and disappointed when they get scored on. If they win, "Cool, well done boys". If they lose, "Cool, better draft pick".
I don't know if it was the fact that they were playing one of the few teams below them at this point, or if it was the total flatness that the game had, but it took less than 5 minutes before I was actively rooting for SJ to score and hoping the Pens did not.
Now that we are in the running for a top 5/10 pick, we HAVE TO make that happen. We're talking about a 1/2 a season at this point. We've already suffered enough over the past 8 years, just suck as bad as we can for the next few months. Get as low of a pick as we can, then get back to trying to win next season.
The difference between finishing 5th/6th and 15th/16th could dramatically change the trajectory of this franchise for years to come.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
I think this post crystallizes the opinion of most posters and fans. The one, odd karmic thing that always seems to happen with this franchise is it's always darkest before the dawn. I think we do somehow finish toward the bottom and end up nailing a franchise type player that they can begin to rebuild around. Somehow, some way.EndO FanEra wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 1:29 pmLast night was the first time I can remember that I openly rooted for the Pens to lose.
I've been going into games with an indifferent mindset so far this season. Root for them to score, and disappointed when they get scored on. If they win, "Cool, well done boys". If they lose, "Cool, better draft pick".
I don't know if it was the fact that they were playing one of the few teams below them at this point, or if it was the total flatness that the game had, but it took less than 5 minutes before I was actively rooting for SJ to score and hoping the Pens did not.
Now that we are in the running for a top 5/10 pick, we HAVE TO make that happen. We're talking about a 1/2 a season at this point. We've already suffered enough over the past 8 years, just suck as bad as we can for the next few months. Get as low of a pick as we can, then get back to trying to win next season.
The difference between finishing 5th/6th and 15th/16th could dramatically change the trajectory of this franchise for years to come.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
I hope you're right!dark_forces wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 1:35 pmI think this post crystallizes the opinion of most posters and fans. The one, odd karmic thing that always seems to happen with this franchise is it's always darkest before the dawn. I think we do somehow finish toward the bottom and end up nailing a franchise type player that they can begin to rebuild around. Somehow, some way.EndO FanEra wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 1:29 pmLast night was the first time I can remember that I openly rooted for the Pens to lose.
I've been going into games with an indifferent mindset so far this season. Root for them to score, and disappointed when they get scored on. If they win, "Cool, well done boys". If they lose, "Cool, better draft pick".
I don't know if it was the fact that they were playing one of the few teams below them at this point, or if it was the total flatness that the game had, but it took less than 5 minutes before I was actively rooting for SJ to score and hoping the Pens did not.
Now that we are in the running for a top 5/10 pick, we HAVE TO make that happen. We're talking about a 1/2 a season at this point. We've already suffered enough over the past 8 years, just suck as bad as we can for the next few months. Get as low of a pick as we can, then get back to trying to win next season.
The difference between finishing 5th/6th and 15th/16th could dramatically change the trajectory of this franchise for years to come.
Part of me feels that way because we've been blessed with Lemieux/Crosby for so long (and Geno/Letang/others along the way). It's bound to happen, right?
But then I think about the last time the team was at the bottom of the standings, and other than Sid's draft year, we haven't had the best lottery luck. I'm pretty sure we were in last place when we drafted Geno, and Washington won the lottery and took Ovi #1 overall. I don't recall what place we were in w/ the Fleury draft, but I'm pretty sure we dropped a few slots and had to trade back up to get the #1 overall. Still great picks, but the lottery bumped us down multiple years IIRC.
If the hockey Gods decide not to bless us with another franchise player for the next few decades during this draft, we could very well be drafting just outside of the lottery window and end up with another Poulin level prospect that can flounder around the Pens system for a few years.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
Unless we go on an unheard of hot streak, we are going to be drafting in the top 8, so, we shouldn't end up with a Sam Pouiln type at this spot. This draft is probably 8-12 good players deep.EndO FanEra wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 3:33 pmI hope you're right!dark_forces wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 1:35 pmI think this post crystallizes the opinion of most posters and fans. The one, odd karmic thing that always seems to happen with this franchise is it's always darkest before the dawn. I think we do somehow finish toward the bottom and end up nailing a franchise type player that they can begin to rebuild around. Somehow, some way.EndO FanEra wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 1:29 pmLast night was the first time I can remember that I openly rooted for the Pens to lose.
I've been going into games with an indifferent mindset so far this season. Root for them to score, and disappointed when they get scored on. If they win, "Cool, well done boys". If they lose, "Cool, better draft pick".
I don't know if it was the fact that they were playing one of the few teams below them at this point, or if it was the total flatness that the game had, but it took less than 5 minutes before I was actively rooting for SJ to score and hoping the Pens did not.
Now that we are in the running for a top 5/10 pick, we HAVE TO make that happen. We're talking about a 1/2 a season at this point. We've already suffered enough over the past 8 years, just suck as bad as we can for the next few months. Get as low of a pick as we can, then get back to trying to win next season.
The difference between finishing 5th/6th and 15th/16th could dramatically change the trajectory of this franchise for years to come.
Part of me feels that way because we've been blessed with Lemieux/Crosby for so long (and Geno/Letang/others along the way). It's bound to happen, right?
But then I think about the last time the team was at the bottom of the standings, and other than Sid's draft year, we haven't had the best lottery luck. I'm pretty sure we were in last place when we drafted Geno, and Washington won the lottery and took Ovi #1 overall. I don't recall what place we were in w/ the Fleury draft, but I'm pretty sure we dropped a few slots and had to trade back up to get the #1 overall. Still great picks, but the lottery bumped us down multiple years IIRC.
If the hockey Gods decide not to bless us with another franchise player for the next few decades during this draft, we could very well be drafting just outside of the lottery window and end up with another Poulin level prospect that can flounder around the Pens system for a few years.
I still stick to my guns that with the depth there this year, we should draft a center. Hagens, Misa, or Desnoyers, with Frondell and McQueen backup picks.
I don't know, however, if any of these players are going to be franchise, generational, or build your whole team around type of players. This team is long overdue for a team that isn't built around the best of the best. Like, have good players, but, maybe not Art Ross capable players that Lemieux, Jagr, Crosby, and Malkin have been.
I think worst case scenario if we have a top 5 pick, we draft a center, and they turn out to only be a 2C ceiling. That's not a bad thing, but the team will still need to go searching for a 1C in future drafts. 1C, 2C, #1 d-man...hardest three positions to fill because they are almost never available for trade, and if they are, very, very very rarely in their early 20s....more usually after they've been around for awhile.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
Draft history of this team outside of top 5 picks is HORRIBLE, through different tenures of owners, GMs and staff. Pickering might be the first hit in the 1st round outside of the top 5 in a long time. Extremely ironic that he was Hextall's pick.EndO FanEra wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 3:33 pmI hope you're right!dark_forces wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 1:35 pmI think this post crystallizes the opinion of most posters and fans. The one, odd karmic thing that always seems to happen with this franchise is it's always darkest before the dawn. I think we do somehow finish toward the bottom and end up nailing a franchise type player that they can begin to rebuild around. Somehow, some way.EndO FanEra wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 1:29 pmLast night was the first time I can remember that I openly rooted for the Pens to lose.
I've been going into games with an indifferent mindset so far this season. Root for them to score, and disappointed when they get scored on. If they win, "Cool, well done boys". If they lose, "Cool, better draft pick".
I don't know if it was the fact that they were playing one of the few teams below them at this point, or if it was the total flatness that the game had, but it took less than 5 minutes before I was actively rooting for SJ to score and hoping the Pens did not.
Now that we are in the running for a top 5/10 pick, we HAVE TO make that happen. We're talking about a 1/2 a season at this point. We've already suffered enough over the past 8 years, just suck as bad as we can for the next few months. Get as low of a pick as we can, then get back to trying to win next season.
The difference between finishing 5th/6th and 15th/16th could dramatically change the trajectory of this franchise for years to come.
Part of me feels that way because we've been blessed with Lemieux/Crosby for so long (and Geno/Letang/others along the way). It's bound to happen, right?
But then I think about the last time the team was at the bottom of the standings, and other than Sid's draft year, we haven't had the best lottery luck. I'm pretty sure we were in last place when we drafted Geno, and Washington won the lottery and took Ovi #1 overall. I don't recall what place we were in w/ the Fleury draft, but I'm pretty sure we dropped a few slots and had to trade back up to get the #1 overall. Still great picks, but the lottery bumped us down multiple years IIRC.
If the hockey Gods decide not to bless us with another franchise player for the next few decades during this draft, we could very well be drafting just outside of the lottery window and end up with another Poulin level prospect that can flounder around the Pens system for a few years.
2019 - #21 Poulin
2014 - #22 Kapanen
2012 - #8 Poulliot, #22 Määttä
2011 - #23 Morrow
2010 - #20 Bennett
2009 - #30 Despres
2007 - #20 Esposito
It wasn't much better in the mid-to-late 1990s.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
The big difference is, these picks were all made while we were playoff teams, getting one of the last 15 picks of the 1st round. In most years, there's a huge drop off after pick 6-12. Pickering is good so far. Still has some work to do, and just because he's been playing on the top pair at times doesn't mean he's a top pair d-man. He could be, but his ceiling is more likely a really good #5 or solid #4 guy on most teams.Victor wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 4:16 pmDraft history of this team outside of top 5 picks is HORRIBLE, through different tenures of owners, GMs and staff. Pickering might be the first hit in the 1st round outside of the top 5 in a long time. Extremely ironic that he was Hextall's pick.EndO FanEra wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 3:33 pmI hope you're right!dark_forces wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 1:35 pmI think this post crystallizes the opinion of most posters and fans. The one, odd karmic thing that always seems to happen with this franchise is it's always darkest before the dawn. I think we do somehow finish toward the bottom and end up nailing a franchise type player that they can begin to rebuild around. Somehow, some way.EndO FanEra wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 1:29 pmLast night was the first time I can remember that I openly rooted for the Pens to lose.
I've been going into games with an indifferent mindset so far this season. Root for them to score, and disappointed when they get scored on. If they win, "Cool, well done boys". If they lose, "Cool, better draft pick".
I don't know if it was the fact that they were playing one of the few teams below them at this point, or if it was the total flatness that the game had, but it took less than 5 minutes before I was actively rooting for SJ to score and hoping the Pens did not.
Now that we are in the running for a top 5/10 pick, we HAVE TO make that happen. We're talking about a 1/2 a season at this point. We've already suffered enough over the past 8 years, just suck as bad as we can for the next few months. Get as low of a pick as we can, then get back to trying to win next season.
The difference between finishing 5th/6th and 15th/16th could dramatically change the trajectory of this franchise for years to come.
Part of me feels that way because we've been blessed with Lemieux/Crosby for so long (and Geno/Letang/others along the way). It's bound to happen, right?
But then I think about the last time the team was at the bottom of the standings, and other than Sid's draft year, we haven't had the best lottery luck. I'm pretty sure we were in last place when we drafted Geno, and Washington won the lottery and took Ovi #1 overall. I don't recall what place we were in w/ the Fleury draft, but I'm pretty sure we dropped a few slots and had to trade back up to get the #1 overall. Still great picks, but the lottery bumped us down multiple years IIRC.
If the hockey Gods decide not to bless us with another franchise player for the next few decades during this draft, we could very well be drafting just outside of the lottery window and end up with another Poulin level prospect that can flounder around the Pens system for a few years.
2019 - #21 Poulin
2014 - #22 Kapanen
2012 - #8 Poulliot, #22 Määttä
2011 - #23 Morrow
2010 - #20 Bennett
2009 - #30 Despres
2007 - #20 Esposito
It wasn't much better in the mid-to-late 1990s.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
Poulliot Is the only one that stands out to me. Huge swing and miss. The others are par for the course. Could they do better, no doubt! But not terrible. A slither below average IMO.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
Agreed on Pickering. If he indeed develops into a solid #4-#5 guy, it would already be a vast improvement on the team's drafting history outside of the top 5.FLPensFan wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 4:22 pmThe big difference is, these picks were all made while we were playoff teams, getting one of the last 15 picks of the 1st round. In most years, there's a huge drop off after pick 6-12. Pickering is good so far. Still has some work to do, and just because he's been playing on the top pair at times doesn't mean he's a top pair d-man. He could be, but his ceiling is more likely a really good #5 or solid #4 guy on most teams.Victor wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 4:16 pmDraft history of this team outside of top 5 picks is HORRIBLE, through different tenures of owners, GMs and staff. Pickering might be the first hit in the 1st round outside of the top 5 in a long time. Extremely ironic that he was Hextall's pick.EndO FanEra wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 3:33 pmI hope you're right!dark_forces wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 1:35 pmI think this post crystallizes the opinion of most posters and fans. The one, odd karmic thing that always seems to happen with this franchise is it's always darkest before the dawn. I think we do somehow finish toward the bottom and end up nailing a franchise type player that they can begin to rebuild around. Somehow, some way.EndO FanEra wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 1:29 pmLast night was the first time I can remember that I openly rooted for the Pens to lose.
I've been going into games with an indifferent mindset so far this season. Root for them to score, and disappointed when they get scored on. If they win, "Cool, well done boys". If they lose, "Cool, better draft pick".
I don't know if it was the fact that they were playing one of the few teams below them at this point, or if it was the total flatness that the game had, but it took less than 5 minutes before I was actively rooting for SJ to score and hoping the Pens did not.
Now that we are in the running for a top 5/10 pick, we HAVE TO make that happen. We're talking about a 1/2 a season at this point. We've already suffered enough over the past 8 years, just suck as bad as we can for the next few months. Get as low of a pick as we can, then get back to trying to win next season.
The difference between finishing 5th/6th and 15th/16th could dramatically change the trajectory of this franchise for years to come.
Part of me feels that way because we've been blessed with Lemieux/Crosby for so long (and Geno/Letang/others along the way). It's bound to happen, right?
But then I think about the last time the team was at the bottom of the standings, and other than Sid's draft year, we haven't had the best lottery luck. I'm pretty sure we were in last place when we drafted Geno, and Washington won the lottery and took Ovi #1 overall. I don't recall what place we were in w/ the Fleury draft, but I'm pretty sure we dropped a few slots and had to trade back up to get the #1 overall. Still great picks, but the lottery bumped us down multiple years IIRC.
If the hockey Gods decide not to bless us with another franchise player for the next few decades during this draft, we could very well be drafting just outside of the lottery window and end up with another Poulin level prospect that can flounder around the Pens system for a few years.
2019 - #21 Poulin
2014 - #22 Kapanen
2012 - #8 Poulliot, #22 Määttä
2011 - #23 Morrow
2010 - #20 Bennett
2009 - #30 Despres
2007 - #20 Esposito
It wasn't much better in the mid-to-late 1990s.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
Nice to hear that there are some solid options outside of the top 5.FLPensFan wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 3:52 pmUnless we go on an unheard of hot streak, we are going to be drafting in the top 8, so, we shouldn't end up with a Sam Pouiln type at this spot. This draft is probably 8-12 good players deep.EndO FanEra wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 3:33 pmI hope you're right!dark_forces wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 1:35 pmI think this post crystallizes the opinion of most posters and fans. The one, odd karmic thing that always seems to happen with this franchise is it's always darkest before the dawn. I think we do somehow finish toward the bottom and end up nailing a franchise type player that they can begin to rebuild around. Somehow, some way.EndO FanEra wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 1:29 pmLast night was the first time I can remember that I openly rooted for the Pens to lose.
I've been going into games with an indifferent mindset so far this season. Root for them to score, and disappointed when they get scored on. If they win, "Cool, well done boys". If they lose, "Cool, better draft pick".
I don't know if it was the fact that they were playing one of the few teams below them at this point, or if it was the total flatness that the game had, but it took less than 5 minutes before I was actively rooting for SJ to score and hoping the Pens did not.
Now that we are in the running for a top 5/10 pick, we HAVE TO make that happen. We're talking about a 1/2 a season at this point. We've already suffered enough over the past 8 years, just suck as bad as we can for the next few months. Get as low of a pick as we can, then get back to trying to win next season.
The difference between finishing 5th/6th and 15th/16th could dramatically change the trajectory of this franchise for years to come.
Part of me feels that way because we've been blessed with Lemieux/Crosby for so long (and Geno/Letang/others along the way). It's bound to happen, right?
But then I think about the last time the team was at the bottom of the standings, and other than Sid's draft year, we haven't had the best lottery luck. I'm pretty sure we were in last place when we drafted Geno, and Washington won the lottery and took Ovi #1 overall. I don't recall what place we were in w/ the Fleury draft, but I'm pretty sure we dropped a few slots and had to trade back up to get the #1 overall. Still great picks, but the lottery bumped us down multiple years IIRC.
If the hockey Gods decide not to bless us with another franchise player for the next few decades during this draft, we could very well be drafting just outside of the lottery window and end up with another Poulin level prospect that can flounder around the Pens system for a few years.
I still stick to my guns that with the depth there this year, we should draft a center. Hagens, Misa, or Desnoyers, with Frondell and McQueen backup picks.
I don't know, however, if any of these players are going to be franchise, generational, or build your whole team around type of players. This team is long overdue for a team that isn't built around the best of the best. Like, have good players, but, maybe not Art Ross capable players that Lemieux, Jagr, Crosby, and Malkin have been.
I think worst case scenario if we have a top 5 pick, we draft a center, and they turn out to only be a 2C ceiling. That's not a bad thing, but the team will still need to go searching for a 1C in future drafts. 1C, 2C, #1 d-man...hardest three positions to fill because they are almost never available for trade, and if they are, very, very very rarely in their early 20s....more usually after they've been around for awhile.
I could totally see this team going on a 5-6 game winning streak. Just because...lol.
Even if that happened, you're still probably right about a top 8 pick. And that, in and of itself, is giving me something to root for and has me somewhat excited about the offseason.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
They are going to be worse next season, and the one after that, and the one after that, and the one after that.... This is the tradeoff for keeping the elders so that fans didn't have to get their feelings hurt by seeing former stars in different uniforms.EndO FanEra wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 1:29 pmLast night was the first time I can remember that I openly rooted for the Pens to lose.
I've been going into games with an indifferent mindset so far this season. Root for them to score, and disappointed when they get scored on. If they win, "Cool, well done boys". If they lose, "Cool, better draft pick".
I don't know if it was the fact that they were playing one of the few teams below them at this point, or if it was the total flatness that the game had, but it took less than 5 minutes before I was actively rooting for SJ to score and hoping the Pens did not.
Now that we are in the running for a top 5/10 pick, we HAVE TO make that happen. We're talking about a 1/2 a season at this point. We've already suffered enough over the past 8 years, just suck as bad as we can for the next few months. Get as low of a pick as we can, then get back to trying to win next season.
The difference between finishing 5th/6th and 15th/16th could dramatically change the trajectory of this franchise for years to come.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
My mind has been in that space for a while now. Winning is cool, I prefer winning, losing sucks but hey, better drafting yeah? I don't believe in tanking though, ever. The players should play to win, every time. If management has made for a poor mix leading to a lot of losses, so be it. Ramming the iceberg on purpose with the Titanic is not my cup of tea.Cow_Master66 wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 1:40 pmThey are going to be worse next season, and the one after that, and the one after that, and the one after that.... This is the tradeoff for keeping the elders so that fans didn't have to get their feelings hurt by seeing former stars in different uniforms.EndO FanEra wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 1:29 pmLast night was the first time I can remember that I openly rooted for the Pens to lose.
I've been going into games with an indifferent mindset so far this season. Root for them to score, and disappointed when they get scored on. If they win, "Cool, well done boys". If they lose, "Cool, better draft pick".
I don't know if it was the fact that they were playing one of the few teams below them at this point, or if it was the total flatness that the game had, but it took less than 5 minutes before I was actively rooting for SJ to score and hoping the Pens did not.
Now that we are in the running for a top 5/10 pick, we HAVE TO make that happen. We're talking about a 1/2 a season at this point. We've already suffered enough over the past 8 years, just suck as bad as we can for the next few months. Get as low of a pick as we can, then get back to trying to win next season.
The difference between finishing 5th/6th and 15th/16th could dramatically change the trajectory of this franchise for years to come.
We will be a bottom dweller for at least 3 seasons after this one I think. Draft well, draft early, draft often. Pick up reclamations and short deals and build.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
Penguins have dropped to 8th overall pick, as STL and their 4 game losing streak has jumped ahead of the Penguins.
Rangers currently sit in 11th overall, which means no 2025 pick from them currently.
In terms of playoffs, they are 5 points out of WC2 spot held by Detroit. DET has 2 games in hand. 4 other teams are between PIT and DET. NYI, MTL, and NYR all have 3 games in hand on PIT, PHI has only 1 game in hand.
Rangers currently sit in 11th overall, which means no 2025 pick from them currently.
In terms of playoffs, they are 5 points out of WC2 spot held by Detroit. DET has 2 games in hand. 4 other teams are between PIT and DET. NYI, MTL, and NYR all have 3 games in hand on PIT, PHI has only 1 game in hand.
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
Aren’t they six points out?
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Re: The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race
Also who’s going to the ECHL when Larsson comes back? Murashov is lights out with WBS.