largegarlic wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 9:33 pm
Skatingpen wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2025 1:21 pm
So he is doing well now as a GM? Has he finally found a direction and plan?
The way I see it, there are kinda 3 components to Dubas's tenure:
1) Keeping Sullivan. This is weird and indefensible.
2) Trying to prop the window open one more year in 23-24. I think his moves going into that season weren't good overall, but they weren't horrible either. Eller and Nedjelkovic were pretty good pickups. Acciari and Nieto were bad but don't really matter that much. Karlsson was good in theory and enabled them to dump some bad deals, but he has underwhelmed in practice. The Graves and Jarry contracts were bad and costly going forward.
3) Gathering assets for a rebuild, which started with the Guentzel trade. Here, I think Dubas has done pretty well. I don't know that he's really ripped anyone off in terms of an amazing return, but I'd say he's been above average in this phase.
That said, tearing down by selling off vets and weaponizing cap space isn't that hard for any halfway competent GM. I think Dubas will really be defined by whether he can take the assets he's accumulating and use them to create the core of another contender.
Some comments on each:
1) My new theory: Sullivan has missed the playoffs 2 years, about to be a 3rd year. Maybe this is the best way to get better draft position without publicly stating we are rebuilding and bottoming out. Let Sullivan run his course, which by default, means a playoff miss and potential top 10 pick. After this season, Sullivan has only 2 years left on his contract. My hope is Dubas has 70-80% of his rebuild done this summer, and then Sullivan needs to spend next season producing results or keep looking over his shoulder at Kirk MacDonald. MacDonald is having a good first year. Team is doing well, almost every prospect is developing and improving under his watch. But this is his first year as AHL head coach. See how he navigates the rest of this season and next season, and if the results continue, let him become head coach....he'll have already worked with a good number of Penguins of the future like Pickering, Blomqvist, Murashov, Larsson, Ponomarev, Koivunen, Broz, etc.
2) My expectation / hope is that Dubas moves Rakell for either a young top 4 d-man like Nemec or Clarke, or a young center like a Cozens or McTavish. Then we draft a center in the top 5 (and trade picks if needed to move up), like Misa, Hagens, or Desnoyers. Brunicke continues his good play and forces his way on the team. McGroary, Koivunen, and Broz force their way onto the team or at least have 2-3 spots to battle for amongst them. Add in a good top 6 winger in free agency, and trade EK65 over the summer. A lot of pieces, but, if he can accomplish all that, this rebuild on the fly may not be such a far fetched idea.
3) He's done well with the Guentzel and Pettersson trade. I expect a lot of the draft pick pool he has to be used to acquire more young NHLers when possible, versus actually using them as our own draft picks. We could even see guys like maybe a Lucuis, Fenstrom, Ilyin types moved along with picks to acquire young NHL talent. Again, doing this, versus drafting and waiting 2-5 years for those draftees to hit the NHL, helps quicken the rebuild process.
I would also say that, when we rebuild, Penguins fan may need to stop thinking in terms of 15-20 year playoff run style rebuild. If Dubas can get it right the first time, it may only be a 3-5 year playoff run before a total tear down is needed. We are overdue for less lengthy string of consecutive playoff years, just like we are well past overdue for a run without an Art Ross/Hart trophy winning generational talent on our team. That may be the biggest adjustment for some older fans.
