Penguins Trade Deadline: Buyers and Sellers?

[Michael74]

Sullivan will be gone when we become relevant again. For now, moving him out really doesn't much matter.

[FLPensFan]

The problem is that the nhl draft is a total crap shoot. 70% of first round 25% of second round and 12% of third rounders make it. The odds of hitting on the amount of players we are hoping for are not high at all. The next 3 years we have currently 15 picks in the first three rounds. So let’s say we hit on 3-5 of those players how many are realistically top tier players? The rangers and capitals rebuilt on the fly with smart trades and not handing out stupid contracts.

This is why I think Dubas probably uses less than half of those picks. He has an extra 1st either in 2025 or 2026...would not surprise me at all if he uses that extra 1st and one of our prospects to get a young NHLer, or to move up into the top 5 if we aren't there.

3rd round picks....low success rate. I'd be perfectly fine if Dubas said to a team here is two 3rds and a 4th to move into the 2nd round.

The way Dubas is talking, these are the types of moves I am expecting. Dubas is smart enough to know that, take 1st round out of the equation....2nd and 3rd rounders....we'll be lucky if they play an NHL game in under 6 years, if at all. That's outside the Dubas timeline, and he knows it.

[Michael74]

He'll likely keep all the 1sts, or use them to move up higher in the first round. Likely move about half of 2hds and 3rds.

[y2jimmie7420]

At this point you have an extra pick in each of the first three rounds. Offer sheet someone. I hate that in the nhl it’s considered a sin to offer sheet a player but burying guys with “injuries” until game one of the playoffs is almost celebrated. I love hockey but the nhl is one of the most butt backwards leagues I have ever seen.

[FLPensFan]

At this point you have an extra pick in each of the first three rounds. Offer sheet someone. I hate that in the nhl it’s considered a sin to offer sheet a player but burying guys with “injuries” until game one of the playoffs is almost celebrated. I love hockey but the nhl is one of the most butt backwards leagues I have ever seen.

I had been all for that, with Wyatt Johnston of Dallas my target, due to Dallas having 6 higher priced RFAs to sign over the next 2 seasons (Johnston, Bourque, Stankoven, Harley, Lundqvist, and Robertson). The cap going as much as it is next season destroys any chance of an offer sheet happening.

Every team is getting a huge cap influx versus a tiny one. I don't see many offer sheets being successful next year.

[y2jimmie7420]

Dallas has the advantage of no state tax to work with also. And Nill has been good with using that to his advantage to lock up guys at a decent rate pretty frequently. So at this point you would really have to go above and beyond to get one of his players.

[100565]

Offer sheet can only be submitted using team’s original draft picks and they need to be within 5 years (if multiple picks in same round are needed).

The Pens do not have their second round pick this year. Pens would need to include their first round pick (likely top 10). NY Ranger’s first cannot be used by Pens for any offer sheet.

I like the idea of offer sheeting someone in a few years, but not now.

This year’s draft and next year’s draft have some high end prospects. I want those guys.

Some drafts are weak on high level talent. This year and next are opposite.

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PA income tax is 3.08%. I am not saying the difference between Texas income tax and PA income tax is nothing, but relatively is not much.

[lemieuxReturns]

I like the idea of offer sheeting someone in a few years, but not now.

Same.

[Daniel]

Offer sheet can only be submitted using team’s original draft picks and they need to be within 5 years (if multiple picks in same round are needed).

The Pens do not have their second round pick this year. Pens would need to include their first round pick (likely top 10). NY Ranger’s first cannot be used by Pens for any offer sheet.

I like the idea of offer sheeting someone in a few years, but not now.

This year’s draft and next year’s draft have some high end prospects. I want those guys.

Some drafts are weak on high level talent. This year and next are opposite.

—————————-
PA income tax is 3.08%. I am not saying the difference between Texas income tax and PA income tax is nothing, but relatively is not much.

3.08% of $5M is $154,000. That's not chump change.

[y2jimmie7420]

5 year 25 million contract is 770k .

[FLPensFan]

Offer sheet can only be submitted using team’s original draft picks and they need to be within 5 years (if multiple picks in same round are needed).

The Pens do not have their second round pick this year. Pens would need to include their first round pick (likely top 10). NY Ranger’s first cannot be used by Pens for any offer sheet.

I like the idea of offer sheeting someone in a few years, but not now.

This year’s draft and next year’s draft have some high end prospects. I want those guys.

Some drafts are weak on high level talent. This year and next are opposite.

—————————-
PA income tax is 3.08%. I am not saying the difference between Texas income tax and PA income tax is nothing, but relatively is not much.

I believe you can still offer sheet someone after the draft. So, if you offer sheet after the draft, you are then using 2026 draft picks, which the Penguins own all of theirs. This got me a few times over the last couple of years. I could have sworn that there was an offer sheet period, but apparently an offer sheet can be put out there at any time.

[Pens4Life]

Sullivan will be gone when we become relevant again. For now, moving him out really doesn't much matter.

For Pens if they want to get actually younger and give chance to some AHL best guys aka Koivunen, Broz, Bemstrom, Ponomarev, McGroarty, Pickering, next Brunicke, Murashov... I think its vital we get new coach who will these guys legit chance and grow with the team.. not 5 games,then sheltered minutes,next scratch and back to AHL to make spots for few older dudes.

Would Kirk MacDonald actually be good choice? Dont know much about him.. he never played in NHL, I dont know if that would be his dis-advantage?!

[100565]

Income tax depends on location of earning. So when Pens play in CA, they pay 3.08% to PA and about 10.2% to CA. A player from Texas playing in CA would pay CA 13.3%.

So the difference between PA and Texas is less than 3.08. (Road games is the difference)

Also, I said relatively. To a team, $5mil Ave Annual Salary is not too much different than $5.1mil.

A team from PA that wants a to go after a UFA from Texas but the player is concerned about more state income tax, the PA team needs to offer $5.1mil annually instead of $5. To the Pens, it is relatively not too much. “Above and beyond “ is 0.1mil per year on $5mil salary.

[100565]

Offer sheet can only be submitted using team’s original draft picks and they need to be within 5 years (if multiple picks in same round are needed).

The Pens do not have their second round pick this year. Pens would need to include their first round pick (likely top 10). NY Ranger’s first cannot be used by Pens for any offer sheet.

I like the idea of offer sheeting someone in a few years, but not now.

This year’s draft and next year’s draft have some high end prospects. I want those guys.

Some drafts are weak on high level talent. This year and next are opposite.

—————————-
PA income tax is 3.08%. I am not saying the difference between Texas income tax and PA income tax is nothing, but relatively is not much.

I believe you can still offer sheet someone after the draft. So, if you offer sheet after the draft, you are then using 2026 draft picks, which the Penguins own all of theirs. This got me a few times over the last couple of years. I could have sworn that there was an offer sheet period, but apparently an offer sheet can be put out there at any time.

Nice catch!

I would not want to use 2026 (unprotected) first round pick though. But a team could.

[Victor]

Honestly the idea of 8 to 10 new young guys with talent, a new youth movement etc would be interesting and exciting but not if Sullivan is here. I think about that kind of scenario and when I imagine a whole new generation of young talent and draft picks with Sullivan running the show, and I just find I have absolutely ZERO interest. Until he's gone, I just increasingly don't care anymore outside of watching Crosby pad the twilight stats as much as possible. I'm not interested in another decade of the same ****, another generation of the same crap, the same garbage treatment of youth, the same obstinate favoritism, etc.

Get a completely new coaching staff with new mentality and system and then fill the team with new talented picks that starts a whole new fresh future with a new young roster.... THAT excites me a ton. The fifth or six complete roster turnover again without a purge of the coaching staff, even if it is with all brand new young draft picks this time instead of with retreads and veterans like the last 3 or 4 times, isn't interesting at all to me.

There seem to be similar discussions in this thread and the random thread, but, I posted that keeping Sullivan for another year may not be the worst idea. It's failed for 2 years, and is going to fail for a 3rd year. If we are shooting for high draft picks, Sullivan might just be the right guy to let run the ship next year.

If we can get a top 5 pick this year, and another top 5 pick next year, make 2026-2027 season the one to make a change. I really like what Kirk MacDonald has done in WBS so far. Granted, the quality of prospects are better, but there are many more guys excelling and taking the next step. This is his first year as an AHL head coach. Give him another year, then axe Sullivan with a year remaining on his deal, and promote MacDonald. He'll have intimate familiarity with most of the young guys that will be on the team.

That's how I'm hoping things work out over the next season and a half.

I believe it's very unlikely that FSG fires Sullivan before the Olympics, which fits the timeline you just dscribed. For some reason it's important for them to have bragging rights over who employs the head coach of team USA.

[KG]

I think (hope) Sullivan and the Pens part ways after the season. It will be a mutual parting and Sullivan will be the HC of the Bruins. Joe Sacco isn't the answer there and they are a team that is expected to win. Makes sense.

[largegarlic]

Income tax depends on location of earning. So when Pens play in CA, they pay 3.08% to PA and about 10.2% to CA. A player from Texas playing in CA would pay CA 13.3%.

So the difference between PA and Texas is less than 3.08. (Road games is the difference)

Also, I said relatively. To a team, $5mil Ave Annual Salary is not too much different than $5.1mil.

A team from PA that wants a to go after a UFA from Texas but the player is concerned about more state income tax, the PA team needs to offer $5.1mil annually instead of $5. To the Pens, it is relatively not too much. “Above and beyond “ is 0.1mil per year on $5mil salary.

Yeah, I'm kind of skeptical that state income tax plays much a role in players' choice about where to sign. We don't see Tampa, Florida, and Dallas just cleaning up and signing all of the big name free agents, or even being able to re-sign all of their own guys on obviously cheap deals. The only consistent preferences I can think of without doing any real digging is that guys seem to want avoid the Canadian teams outside of Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver, the train wreck franchises like Arizona, and at least some will gravitate towards the bigger, more exciting cities (NYC, Miami, LA, Toronto, etc.).

[FLPensFan]

Income tax depends on location of earning. So when Pens play in CA, they pay 3.08% to PA and about 10.2% to CA. A player from Texas playing in CA would pay CA 13.3%.

So the difference between PA and Texas is less than 3.08. (Road games is the difference)

Also, I said relatively. To a team, $5mil Ave Annual Salary is not too much different than $5.1mil.

A team from PA that wants a to go after a UFA from Texas but the player is concerned about more state income tax, the PA team needs to offer $5.1mil annually instead of $5. To the Pens, it is relatively not too much. “Above and beyond “ is 0.1mil per year on $5mil salary.

Yeah, I'm kind of skeptical that state income tax plays much a role in players' choice about where to sign. We don't see Tampa, Florida, and Dallas just cleaning up and signing all of the big name free agents, or even being able to re-sign all of their own guys on obviously cheap deals. The only consistent preferences I can think of without doing any real digging is that guys seem to want avoid the Canadian teams outside of Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver, the train wreck franchises like Arizona, and at least some will gravitate towards the bigger, more exciting cities (NYC, Miami, LA, Toronto, etc.).

As much as we all think it matters, and the national media likes to play up that fact, several agents have spoken out about it in the past few years. They typically offer their clients ways to diversify or get their money that negates most of the local tax issues.

[Michael74]

Sullivan will be gone when we become relevant again. For now, moving him out really doesn't much matter.

For Pens if they want to get actually younger and give chance to some AHL best guys aka Koivunen, Broz, Bemstrom, Ponomarev, McGroarty, Pickering, next Brunicke, Murashov... I think its vital we get new coach who will these guys legit chance and grow with the team.. not 5 games,then sheltered minutes,next scratch and back to AHL to make spots for few older dudes.

Would Kirk MacDonald actually be good choice? Dont know much about him.. he never played in NHL, I dont know if that would be his dis-advantage?!

If we miss the playoffs for a third consecutive year (as appears to be the case) changes will be accelerated. I don't see Sullivan being here this time next year. Some of the players you mentioned however won't be ready to make the jump to the NHL until 26-27. By then I seriously seriously doubt Sullivan will be here. I figure we have a couple years to bottom out. If not at least next year unless we go hog wild in free agency. Koivunen and Pono will likely get a good shot next season if not a look later this season. I'd wait until next year however.

[Michael74]

Actually, I think the Guentzel trade was the beginning of the accelerated change in course for the team.

[Puck-Lurker]

Sullivan will be gone when we become relevant again. For now, moving him out really doesn't much matter.

For Pens if they want to get actually younger and give chance to some AHL best guys aka Koivunen, Broz, Bemstrom, Ponomarev, McGroarty, Pickering, next Brunicke, Murashov... I think its vital we get new coach who will these guys legit chance and grow with the team.. not 5 games,then sheltered minutes,next scratch and back to AHL to make spots for few older dudes.

Would Kirk MacDonald actually be good choice? Dont know much about him.. he never played in NHL, I dont know if that would be his dis-advantage?!

If we miss the playoffs for a third consecutive year (as appears to be the case) changes will be accelerated. I don't see Sullivan being here this time next year. Some of the players you mentioned however won't be ready to make the jump to the NHL until 26-27. By then I seriously seriously doubt Sullivan will be here. I figure we have a couple years to bottom out. If not at least next year unless we go hog wild in free agency. Koivunen and Pono will likely get a good shot next season if not a look later this season. I'd wait until next year however.

On his pod today, DK was trying to dispel the idea that the year Sullivan came up, he brought in young guys from the AHL, because he knew them and had worked with them (Sheary, Rust, Kühnhackl, Scott Wilson, Murray). And since that season (and the one after -- Guentzel), he's pretty much stopped favouring youth. Said it was Rutherford making those moves and Sully didn't have that many games in WBS, 14 by his count (?) -- by my count 23.

Rubbish in my view.

First those 23 games are enough to make them *your* guys.

Second any GM worth their salt will talk to their coaches as to what players to bring up. This behaviour is a Sullivan problem.

Yes, Dubas added a bunch of veterans. But it's Sullivan that will consistently sit under 30 players to play over 30 players that are just not better, or appreciably worse. Or overplay the older player for unknown reasons. Sullivan doesn't care about the future of the team, he's only here for a little while longer. I'd fire him yesterday and will add not firing Sullivan before the trade deadline as a big minus on Dubas' record. If he's here next season, there will be young players maybe coming up, to just sit behind Acciari and other spare parts.

[Daniel]

Income tax depends on location of earning. So when Pens play in CA, they pay 3.08% to PA and about 10.2% to CA. A player from Texas playing in CA would pay CA 13.3%.

So the difference between PA and Texas is less than 3.08. (Road games is the difference)

Also, I said relatively. To a team, $5mil Ave Annual Salary is not too much different than $5.1mil.

A team from PA that wants a to go after a UFA from Texas but the player is concerned about more state income tax, the PA team needs to offer $5.1mil annually instead of $5. To the Pens, it is relatively not too much. “Above and beyond “ is 0.1mil per year on $5mil salary.

Yeah, I'm kind of skeptical that state income tax plays much a role in players' choice about where to sign. We don't see Tampa, Florida, and Dallas just cleaning up and signing all of the big name free agents, or even being able to re-sign all of their own guys on obviously cheap deals. The only consistent preferences I can think of without doing any real digging is that guys seem to want avoid the Canadian teams outside of Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver, the train wreck franchises like Arizona, and at least some will gravitate towards the bigger, more exciting cities (NYC, Miami, LA, Toronto, etc.).

I think it depends on the player and really an impossible thing to know. What percentage of players Dallas, Florida, Tampa want do they get? Do other teams have to pay X% higher to get the player? It would be a good article, but hard to know if they'd get any information.

[Michael74]

Sullivan will be gone when we become relevant again. For now, moving him out really doesn't much matter.

For Pens if they want to get actually younger and give chance to some AHL best guys aka Koivunen, Broz, Bemstrom, Ponomarev, McGroarty, Pickering, next Brunicke, Murashov... I think its vital we get new coach who will these guys legit chance and grow with the team.. not 5 games,then sheltered minutes,next scratch and back to AHL to make spots for few older dudes.

Would Kirk MacDonald actually be good choice? Dont know much about him.. he never played in NHL, I dont know if that would be his dis-advantage?!

If we miss the playoffs for a third consecutive year (as appears to be the case) changes will be accelerated. I don't see Sullivan being here this time next year. Some of the players you mentioned however won't be ready to make the jump to the NHL until 26-27. By then I seriously seriously doubt Sullivan will be here. I figure we have a couple years to bottom out. If not at least next year unless we go hog wild in free agency. Koivunen and Pono will likely get a good shot next season if not a look later this season. I'd wait until next year however.

On his pod today, DK was trying to dispel the idea that the year Sullivan came up, he brought in young guys from the AHL, because he knew them and had worked with them (Sheary, Rust, Kühnhackl, Scott Wilson, Murray). And since that season (and the one after -- Guentzel), he's pretty much stopped favouring youth. Said it was Rutherford making those moves and Sully didn't have that many games in WBS, 14 by his count (?) -- by my count 23.

Rubbish in my view.

First those 23 games are enough to make them *your* guys.

Second any GM worth their salt will talk to their coaches as to what players to bring up. This behaviour is a Sullivan problem.

Yes, Dubas added a bunch of veterans. But it's Sullivan that will consistently sit under 30 players to play over 30 players that are just not better, or appreciably worse. Or overplay the older player for unknown reasons. Sullivan doesn't care about the future of the team, he's only here for a little while longer. I'd fire him yesterday and will add not firing Sullivan before the trade deadline as a big minus on Dubas' record. If he's here next season, there will be young players maybe coming up, to just sit behind Acciari and other spare parts.

I have a more cryptic but IMO practical view here. As long Sullivan is here, this team will not be successful. Personally, the worse they are now the better it is for the future. I'm not concerned with the core having any level of success moving forward. One of the reasons Sullivan has stayed this long is because of them. The core and Sullivan go hand in hand. I'm ok with a rebuild taking a few years. They had a great run, but that run ended in 2018. That was the last season we won a playoff series. We need to draft and develop well. That's all that really matters for the next few years.

[KG]

Dallas lost Heiskenen with knee surgery. He's out month to month. Wonder if they will come looking for Karlsson? Ceci isn't going to fill Heiskenen's shoes obviously.

[y2jimmie7420]

Circling back on the tax talk. Didn’t the ducks sign someone with a deferred contract recently. That way when they collect their pay they planned to be out of state?