Penguins Trade Deadline: Buyers and Sellers?

[Southern Fan]

X factor in any deal will be the free agent market in July and the ridiculous contracts players will get that are below average in their utility to a team. General managers trying to salvage their jobs may give up a ton of assets right now so as not to overpay for an average player in July.

[Cow_Master66]

Trading a 4th rounder for Tomasino looks like a very solid move. It's an under the radar trade that definitely suggests we garnered good value there. Whatever moves forward Kyle makes he's gotta extract good value.

Since his 1st summer here he's done a good joob in doing so.

The deciding variable is hitting on our 1sts over the next three years. They need to make up our nucleus for the next generation. We can't miss on them. They might not (won't) be Sid or Geno level, but you can get some nice pieces if you draft and develop well. That's where our primary focal point needs to be.

We have some nice complimentary pieces in the system and I'm very high on Murashov, but our future core is largely yet to be drafted IMO.

This team is more than 3 years away. They need to collect as much draft capital as possible, have solid 1st round selections, but have enough 2nd-mid pick success to built up a pool of talent for 5-6 years from now.

It's a combination of the two. We need to accumulate draft capital and build up our system, so that in a few years when guys like Murashov, Pickering, Koivunen, McGroarty, Broz have moved on, we have another 6-8 legitimate prospects ready to step in at the AHL level. Rinse and repeat.

However, Dubas's plan is not a full on rebuild, which means I do expect a fair amount of draft capital, and even some acquired prospects, to be moved out in trades to acquire young NHL players, or prospects that are about to make the jump to the NHL. That's how you "attempt" quicken the rebuild/retool time. Otherwise, you've got a 2-4 year wait just for most of those draft picks to get into the Penguins system, and another 2 years before they are potentially ready to play in the NHL....coupled with the fact that 50% of the guys may never even play an NHL game.

I fully expect Dubas to attempt to trade away a good number of draft picks for younger players/prospects.

I agree....The truth is, this team can't rebuild (for real for real) while the elders are here. People will blame Dubas, but his hands are tied in a number of ways.

I disagree nobody is forcing Dubas to retool versus rebuild. It's his judgement call that this team can retool and be competitive with Sid Geno and Letang still on the roster. Personally I feel to think that is delusional

It's 1000% not his call to be able to trade the elders. First of all, it's in plain writing in that they all have NMCs. Second, the organization won't go ask any of them to waive the NMC because much of the fanbase will be butt-hurt.

[FLPensFan]

Trading a 4th rounder for Tomasino looks like a very solid move. It's an under the radar trade that definitely suggests we garnered good value there. Whatever moves forward Kyle makes he's gotta extract good value.

Since his 1st summer here he's done a good joob in doing so.

The deciding variable is hitting on our 1sts over the next three years. They need to make up our nucleus for the next generation. We can't miss on them. They might not (won't) be Sid or Geno level, but you can get some nice pieces if you draft and develop well. That's where our primary focal point needs to be.

We have some nice complimentary pieces in the system and I'm very high on Murashov, but our future core is largely yet to be drafted IMO.

This team is more than 3 years away. They need to collect as much draft capital as possible, have solid 1st round selections, but have enough 2nd-mid pick success to built up a pool of talent for 5-6 years from now.

It's a combination of the two. We need to accumulate draft capital and build up our system, so that in a few years when guys like Murashov, Pickering, Koivunen, McGroarty, Broz have moved on, we have another 6-8 legitimate prospects ready to step in at the AHL level. Rinse and repeat.

However, Dubas's plan is not a full on rebuild, which means I do expect a fair amount of draft capital, and even some acquired prospects, to be moved out in trades to acquire young NHL players, or prospects that are about to make the jump to the NHL. That's how you "attempt" quicken the rebuild/retool time. Otherwise, you've got a 2-4 year wait just for most of those draft picks to get into the Penguins system, and another 2 years before they are potentially ready to play in the NHL....coupled with the fact that 50% of the guys may never even play an NHL game.

I fully expect Dubas to attempt to trade away a good number of draft picks for younger players/prospects.

I agree....The truth is, this team can't rebuild (for real for real) while the elders are here. People will blame Dubas, but his hands are tied in a number of ways.

I disagree nobody is forcing Dubas to retool versus rebuild. It's his judgement call that this team can retool and be competitive with Sid Geno and Letang still on the roster. Personally I feel to think that is delusional

I think we'll get a true sense of what he's trying to do over the next 12 months. This year's deadline, the draft, and draft day trades, who he signs this summer, and into next year's deadline.

I think Dubas was definitely letting his vision be swayed a bit by trying to skirt that compete vs rebuild line in that first year. This year, I can't really complain about a move he has made. Now over the next 12 months, its time to see if he can maximize Rakell's value, or feels compelled to keep him to keep Sid happy and feed the delusion that playoffs and competing are possible. Does Letang get traded? Can he trade EK65? Does he stop himself from extending a 39 year old Malkin next year? Does he finally look to move Rust when his trade protection expires, either this summer or at the deadline next year...or does he hold on until Rust ages out and has virtually no value.

Those are the big signs to watch for over the next 12 months, IMO. Because if he's trying to turn things around quickly....you move EK65 if you can, you maximize Rakell and Rust value, you consider trading Letang if there's a worthwhile trade proposal, and you don't extend a 39 year old Malkin beyond next season. All of those things follow the quick turnaround plan. Let's see if he choose to execute them.

[thehockeyguru]

It's 1000% not his call to be able to trade the elders. First of all, it's in plain writing in that they all have NMCs. Second, the organization won't go ask any of them to waive the NMC because much of the fanbase will be butt-hurt.

I agree with you he can't move Crosby Malkin and Letang. GMJR left the organization because he was told he couldn't. But there is nothing stopping him from trading Rakell, asking Rust to waive, and moving any other player for any return.

Not moving players beyond the old 3 is totally Dubas's doing.

[Cow_Master66]

It's 1000% not his call to be able to trade the elders. First of all, it's in plain writing in that they all have NMCs. Second, the organization won't go ask any of them to waive the NMC because much of the fanbase will be butt-hurt.

I agree with you he can't move Crosby Malkin and Letang. GMJR left the organization because he was told he couldn't. But there is nothing stopping him from trading Rakell, asking Rust to waive, and moving any other player for any return.

Not moving players beyond the old 3 is totally Dubas's doing.

For all we know, Rust said "no"...Dubas isn't going to come out and say that.

Rakell they are sitting pretty with, and there's not hurry at all to move him. They DO need to before next season, but they are going to get someone to overpay for him between now and then, I personally believe. If they do decide to keep him, the only logical reason would be to appease the Captain....it would be very hard to come up with another reason to hold onto him.

I'd imagine they are trying to move others, but guess what - most of them suck. This board has a great history of trashing players all year then blaming the GM for not being able to trade them.

[thehockeyguru]

It's 1000% not his call to be able to trade the elders. First of all, it's in plain writing in that they all have NMCs. Second, the organization won't go ask any of them to waive the NMC because much of the fanbase will be butt-hurt.

I agree with you he can't move Crosby Malkin and Letang. GMJR left the organization because he was told he couldn't. But there is nothing stopping him from trading Rakell, asking Rust to waive, and moving any other player for any return.

Not moving players beyond the old 3 is totally Dubas's doing.

For all we know, Rust said "no"...Dubas isn't going to come out and say that.

Rakell they are sitting pretty with, and there's not hurry at all to move him. They DO need to before next season, but they are going to get someone to overpay for him between now and then, I personally believe. If they do decide to keep him, the only logical reason would be to appease the Captain....it would be very hard to come up with another reason to hold onto him.

I'd imagine they are trying to move others, but guess what - most of them suck. This board has a great history of trashing players all year then blaming the GM for not being able to trade them.

Ive heard multiple times Dubas say he hasn't asked Rust and Rust has said he hasn't been approached. I take both at their word

[lemieuxReturns]

For those of you who are suggesting that the Penguins retain on a Rakell trade for the next 3.5 years, here is an example of why that is a bad idea.

We only get 3 of those. Bad teams, that are going to be bad for a while can weaponize that cap space. Ideally, you would want to retain on a player that is only under contract for the remainder of the current season that you retain on. In that scenario, you can pick up draft picks. If you retain on Rakell, you would be one less for 3.5 years.

Here is a recent scenario:

The Carolina Hurricanes acquired forwards Mikko Rantanen and Taylor Hall in a blockbuster three-team trade with the Colorado Avalanche and Chicago Blackhawks on Friday.

Colorado received forwards Jack Drury and Martin Necas, along with a second-round pick in the 2025 NHL Draft and a fourth-round pick in the 2026 NHL Draft from Carolina, which acquired Chicago forward prospect Nils Juntorp.

Chicago acquired a third-round pick in the 2025 Draft from Carolina. The Blackhawks will also retain 50 percent of Rantanen's $9.25 million salary.

In this scenario, Chicago retains on a contract for the rest of the year. Losing one of their 3 retentions. They could theoretically do this two more times this season and pick up 3 different draft picks (or prospects). They could do this 3 more times over the next 3 seasons.

BUT if you retain on Rakell, you are removing yourself from potentially 3 draft picks or prospects over the next 3 years you are retaining. It is not good asset management. In fact, I would argue that it would be better to not trade him at all if you have to retain. This allows you to keep that retention for scenarios like the one above.

[thehockeyguru]

For those of you who are suggesting that the Penguins retain on a Rakell trade for the next 3.5 years, here is an example of why that is a bad idea.

We only get 3 of those. Bad teams, that are going to be bad for a while can weaponize that cap space. Ideally, you would want to retain on a player that is only under contract for the remainder of the current season that you retain on. In that scenario, you can pick up draft picks. If you retain on Rakell, you would be one less for 3.5 years.

Here is a recent scenario:

The Carolina Hurricanes acquired forwards Mikko Rantanen and Taylor Hall in a blockbuster three-team trade with the Colorado Avalanche and Chicago Blackhawks on Friday.

Colorado received forwards Jack Drury and Martin Necas, along with a second-round pick in the 2025 NHL Draft and a fourth-round pick in the 2026 NHL Draft from Carolina, which acquired Chicago forward prospect Nils Juntorp.

Chicago acquired a third-round pick in the 2025 Draft from Carolina. The Blackhawks will also retain 50 percent of Rantanen's $9.25 million salary.

In this scenario, Chicago retains on a contract for the rest of the year. Losing one of their 3 retentions. They could theoretically do this two more times this season and pick up 3 different draft picks (or prospects). They could do this 3 more times over the next 3 seasons.

BUT if you retain on Rakell, you are removing yourself from potentially 3 draft picks or prospects over the next 3 years you are retaining. It is not good asset management. In fact, I would argue that it would be better to not trade him at all if you have to retain. This allows you to keep that retention for scenarios like the one above.

The reason to retain on Rakell would solely be to increase the return. In the example above Chicago is retaining salary for a 3rd round pick.

If the best offer for Rakell is a 2nd and A prospect but if we retained on Rakell and another team can now fit him in under the cap for a 1st and A prospect then I'm definitely retaining.

I'm not retaining just to retain you have to do it when you increase the return. Moving from a 2nd to a 1st would more valuable than a 3rd

You can retain on Karlsson and Rakell then still have a 3rd slot for one year contracts you absorb as a 3rd party. Those types of deals happen every so often but I don't think you need to save multiple slots for that scenario

[Crash66]

Forget Bunting. He's out indefinitely after having an appendectomy.

[Cow_Master66]

No reason to retain on Rakell.

[Pitts]

No reason to retain on Rakell.

Only one they should be willing to retain on is Karlsson.

[thehockeyguru]

No reason to retain on Rakell.

Only one they should be willing to retain on is Karlsson.

Agree to disagree. A rebuilding organization should have all 3 slots used, each season because that means you are acquiring additional draft picks or prospects that you otherwise wouldn't have.

It's the GMs job to maximize the return in exchange for using those retention slots.

[Cow_Master66]

No reason to retain on Rakell.

Only one they should be willing to retain on is Karlsson.

Agree to disagree. A rebuilding organization should have all 3 slots used, each season because that means you are acquiring additional draft picks or prospects that you otherwise wouldn't have.

It's the GMs job to maximize the return in exchange for using those retention slots.

Agree, but there's no reason to retain on Rakell when he will already be viewed as a fantastic value. For arguments sakes, sure, if they could turn a 1st + A-level prospect into 3 1sts + A-level prospect, sure go for the retention, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Penguins retaining would make sense for either side. I don't see a team throwing in a ton more value just because Pittsburgh retains 2.5M.

[thehockeyguru]

No reason to retain on Rakell.

Only one they should be willing to retain on is Karlsson.

Agree to disagree. A rebuilding organization should have all 3 slots used, each season because that means you are acquiring additional draft picks or prospects that you otherwise wouldn't have.

It's the GMs job to maximize the return in exchange for using those retention slots.

Agree, but there's no reason to retain on Rakell when he will already be viewed as a fantastic value. For arguments sakes, sure, if they could turn a 1st + A-level prospect into 3 1sts + A-level prospect, sure go for the retention, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Penguins retaining would make sense for either side. I don't see a team throwing in a ton more value just because Pittsburgh retains 2.5M.

I just don't like blanket statements like we can never retain on Rakell. I would retain on any player if the other side gave adequate compensation to do so.

[pfim]

X factor in any deal will be the free agent market in July and the ridiculous contracts players will get that are below average in their utility to a team. General managers trying to salvage their jobs may give up a ton of assets right now so as not to overpay for an average player in July.

Increasing Rakell's market value but also increasing his value to the Penguins.

[Michael74]

Trading a 4th rounder for Tomasino looks like a very solid move. It's an under the radar trade that definitely suggests we garnered good value there. Whatever moves forward Kyle makes he's gotta extract good value.

Since his 1st summer here he's done a good joob in doing so.

The deciding variable is hitting on our 1sts over the next three years. They need to make up our nucleus for the next generation. We can't miss on them. They might not (won't) be Sid or Geno level, but you can get some nice pieces if you draft and develop well. That's where our primary focal point needs to be.

We have some nice complimentary pieces in the system and I'm very high on Murashov, but our future core is largely yet to be drafted IMO.

This team is more than 3 years away. They need to collect as much draft capital as possible, have solid 1st round selections, but have enough 2nd-mid pick success to built up a pool of talent for 5-6 years from now.

100% AGREE! This is not a short term fix. The only realistic way to expedite a turn around is by signing big time free agents. I would wait on that however until at least the summer of '26.

[Michael74]

Rakell and Lizotte for 26' 1st , Moore and Turcotte doesnt make sense from a lot of reasons, as FLPens already wrote..

We need younger guys, picks and prospects.. not exactly 29yrs old Moore on long term deal with 4.2M AAV.

Rakell just for 26' pick and Turcotte, ok..rather do that, if anything, but even 24yrs Alex isnt intriguing that much.

But you take back Moore to help offset the Kings cap hit. You don't bring him in to help turn things around exactly, you do so to make it more amenable for LA. In turn you could then trade him away for a young asset or pick/prospect.

[Michael74]

No reason to retain on Rakell.

Only one they should be willing to retain on is Karlsson.

Agree to disagree. A rebuilding organization should have all 3 slots used, each season because that means you are acquiring additional draft picks or prospects that you otherwise wouldn't have.

It's the GMs job to maximize the return in exchange for using those retention slots.

Agree, but there's no reason to retain on Rakell when he will already be viewed as a fantastic value. For arguments sakes, sure, if they could turn a 1st + A-level prospect into 3 1sts + A-level prospect, sure go for the retention, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Penguins retaining would make sense for either side. I don't see a team throwing in a ton more value just because Pittsburgh retains 2.5M.

EXACTLY! You use that slot on EK as there'd undoubtedly be a bigger retention number than with Rakell, thus maximizing your return.

Retaining on RR wouldn't likely move the needle to the degree it would with EK.

[Michael74]

No reason to retain on Rakell.

Only one they should be willing to retain on is Karlsson.

[Michael74]

Bunting just had is appendix taken out. He's sidelined for awhile. Wonder if they should LTIR him for the season, save the cap space from that, and use it to take on a couple bad contracts and acquire young assets and/or picks at the same time.

We currently have 49 contracts and are allowed 50, so we're pretty much at the limit. We'd have to trade away players for that to happen.

[Pitts]

No reason to retain on Rakell.

Only one they should be willing to retain on is Karlsson.

Agree to disagree. A rebuilding organization should have all 3 slots used, each season because that means you are acquiring additional draft picks or prospects that you otherwise wouldn't have.

It's the GMs job to maximize the return in exchange for using those retention slots.

Agree, but there's no reason to retain on Rakell when he will already be viewed as a fantastic value. For arguments sakes, sure, if they could turn a 1st + A-level prospect into 3 1sts + A-level prospect, sure go for the retention, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Penguins retaining would make sense for either side. I don't see a team throwing in a ton more value just because Pittsburgh retains 2.5M.

EXACTLY! You use that slot on EK as there'd undoubtedly be a bigger retention number than with Rakell, thus maximizing your return.

Retaining on RR wouldn't likely move the needle to the degree it would with EK.

I just see no reason at all to retain on Rakell. He is more than worthy of his contract and with the cap exploding next season, no need to retain unless the offer is crazy.
Also, I believe we only have 1 retention spot available to use this year. I'd rather he be moved at the deadline as I think you would get a much better return from a GM wanting him for the playoffs. You lose that urgency in the off season. Use that retention spot on Karlsson at the deadline.

[EndO FanEra]

Retention on Rakell should only happen if the return coming back warrants it. However, that price would likely be set high enough that is it not really feasible for the acquiring team. From the Pens standpoint though, it would be irresponsible not to listen to and consider all offers, even if retention is part of it.

If LA comes with an offer of, say, a 2026 1st + Clarke + Jeannot but they need $1M retention to make it work, I might consider it. No doubt, it sucks to that retention slot eaten up for the next 3 years, but that's one heck of a return for a guy like Rakell. If retaining is the difference between a 1st and a 2nd added to Clarke, or adding Clarke to the 1st instead of a lesser prospect, I might consider it. Of course, we'll never know the details of any negotiation, so it would be hard to judge any deal that is made with that regard.

All that said, it's highly unlikely that we'd retain on him. If anything, my guess is that we'd bring in a 3rd team and have someone throw a pick/prospect their way to cover the retention.

My gut says that it's somewhere around 40-50% chance he's traded w/out retention, 30-40% not traded at all, 10-20% traded w/ another team taking on retention, and 5-10% Pens retain.

Edit - since we only have the one spot left for this year, if we have a reasonable offer for Karlsson this deadline that requires retention, you do that deal all-day-long and pass on the Rakell retention. Otherwise, if another team ponies up and we can get a great return, go for it. We can use one on Karlsson in the offseason and one for future use.

[Michael74]

Only one they should be willing to retain on is Karlsson.

Agree to disagree. A rebuilding organization should have all 3 slots used, each season because that means you are acquiring additional draft picks or prospects that you otherwise wouldn't have.

It's the GMs job to maximize the return in exchange for using those retention slots.

Agree, but there's no reason to retain on Rakell when he will already be viewed as a fantastic value. For arguments sakes, sure, if they could turn a 1st + A-level prospect into 3 1sts + A-level prospect, sure go for the retention, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Penguins retaining would make sense for either side. I don't see a team throwing in a ton more value just because Pittsburgh retains 2.5M.

EXACTLY! You use that slot on EK as there'd undoubtedly be a bigger retention number than with Rakell, thus maximizing your return.

Retaining on RR wouldn't likely move the needle to the degree it would with EK.

I just see no reason at all to retain on Rakell. He is more than worthy of his contract and with the cap exploding next season, no need to retain unless the offer is crazy.
Also, I believe we only have 1 retention spot available to use this year. I'd rather he be moved at the deadline as I think you would get a much better return from a GM wanting him for the playoffs. You lose that urgency in the off season. Use that retention spot on Karlsson at the deadline.

Yes, we only have one retention spot left, and it should most certainly go for EK. IF things fall the right way we could garner several good pieces for the future if we play this deadline right. MG most certainly will be gone, but if one of RR or EK is moved at a premium (as it is a sellers market) that would be a great way to go into the off season, well, the next few off seasons actually.

[Puck-Lurker]

Agree to disagree. A rebuilding organization should have all 3 slots used, each season because that means you are acquiring additional draft picks or prospects that you otherwise wouldn't have.

It's the GMs job to maximize the return in exchange for using those retention slots.

Agree, but there's no reason to retain on Rakell when he will already be viewed as a fantastic value. For arguments sakes, sure, if they could turn a 1st + A-level prospect into 3 1sts + A-level prospect, sure go for the retention, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Penguins retaining would make sense for either side. I don't see a team throwing in a ton more value just because Pittsburgh retains 2.5M.

EXACTLY! You use that slot on EK as there'd undoubtedly be a bigger retention number than with Rakell, thus maximizing your return.

Retaining on RR wouldn't likely move the needle to the degree it would with EK.

I just see no reason at all to retain on Rakell. He is more than worthy of his contract and with the cap exploding next season, no need to retain unless the offer is crazy.
Also, I believe we only have 1 retention spot available to use this year. I'd rather he be moved at the deadline as I think you would get a much better return from a GM wanting him for the playoffs. You lose that urgency in the off season. Use that retention spot on Karlsson at the deadline.

Yes, we only have one retention spot left, and it should most certainly go for EK. IF things fall the right way we could garner several good pieces for the future if we play this deadline right. MG most certainly will be gone, but if one of RR or EK is moved at a premium (as it is a sellers market) that would be a great way to go into the off season, well, the next few off seasons actually.

Best.. best.. best scenario..

Trade off Rakell for a haul. Trade Karlsson, get acquire a few nice pieces by retaining some; preferably guys that are 1-2 years from the NHL. Trade Grz and Beau for mid round picks. Don't resign Nieto and don't fill the roster with empty sweater veterans.

Fill out the roster with WBS players and look to part with even more vets (coughAcciaricough).

Draft well. It's not a crap shoot if you've got scouts that are worth their salt. Draft for high ceiling players, not players that will max out on fourth line duty.

Don't bother with UFAs, unless there's an absolute steal to be had. Flip late picks for a young player like Tomassino if the opportunity arises.

Out with the old, in with the new and stop buying old! Predicting sucking for half a dozen years before the team is back in the saddle.

[KG]

I’m hoping KD makes a couple of trades that helps accelerate the rebuild but I’m bracing more for Gryz and Beauvillier traded for mid round picks.