The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race

[Daniel]

The Penguins still have zero chance to make the playoffs in my book. Dejan keeps pushing the playoff hope and chances. I don't see it

Hmm, DK deserves a healthy amount of criticism at times, but maybe not for this.

It may be my perspective, but for a while now, I've seen Kovacevic say pretty much the opposite. He doesn't see any playoff dreams come to fruition, hasn't for a while now. What he has been going on and on and on about is that the *players* seem to believe in it. That this forward, or that defenceman will speak passionately and convincingly about their struggle to still make the playoffs, with the notion that this is entirely feasible.
I've heard DK start this narrative a few times, then he stops midway and does a little skit about it, how "wait.. you're not even listening anymore, are you?" tapping the fourth wall, addressing the listener. He's been saying that the players believe and more power to them; and he doesn't.

I do find this hammering home this apparently idea that there is some kind of in any way reasonable path to the playoffs very obnoxious. I get that he's trying to market his podcast and website and that he has to put out content. And that you can only write about what you observe and get from the group.. but boy am I sick and tired of it.


He did address the idiocy of putting Murashov in Wheeling. Just.. what the actual F. If there's any goalie that should play as much in the AHL as possible, it's that kid. How does that even work? "Hey Sergei, six games for Wilkes-Barre, good job! Six wins, 1.99 GAA and .934 SV%. You did really well here, 10/10. A taxi is waiting to drive you to Wheeling."
He's 2.31 GAA and .926 SV% in the ECHL (24gp). He had 2.03 GAA .930 SV% in the MHL the year before... just what more does this guy need to displace Tristan MF Jarry in WBS?

Well, WBS looks to be pretty good defensively and ECHL doesn't usually have great defensive structure. Maybe the thought process is to let Murashov have as close the NHL experience as a Penguins as he can possibly get.

[FLPensFan]

Penguins currently sit in the 5th overall spot, as Buffalo has passed them using Points Percentage. BUF currently losing 1-0 to MTL. Seattle plays Vancouver later tonight. A SEA win will put them 0.1% behind the Penguins in points percentage. Before tonight's SEA-VAN, SEA has 2 games in hand on the Penguins. After tonight it will be down to 1. Buffalo has 5 games in hand, which will be down to 4 after they finish their game now.

Odds are pretty good that Buffalo will stay ahead of the Penguins. Buffalo has been playing above .500 hockey for the past few weeks. They only other "loser" team that has been hotter recently is Anaheim. BUF 6-4 in their last 10, ANA 7-2-1

[Michael74]

Losing today helps, however coming back against the Flyers as we did is why We're not getting 4th OA. I'd be thrilled if we got 6OA, but even that is dicey. Very possible though.

[thehockeyguru]

Was really hoping Buffalo would beat Montreal

At least Seattle won

[FLPensFan]

Losing today helps, however coming back against the Flyers as we did is why We're not getting 4th OA. I'd be thrilled if we got 6OA, but even that is dicey. Very possible though.

Going by games remaining and current points percentage, Penguins should finish with 75-76 points
Seattle should finish with 75-76 points
Buffalo should finish with 75 points

It's essentially a 3 way race. for 4th, 5th, and 6th. BUT....if you look since the start of 2025, the Penguins have been well below their points percentage pace. Points percentage on the season is .460, but since January 1st, it's .396, worst behind only SJ and CHI.

Seattle since January 1st is .435, just slightly under their .459 points percentage on the season.
Meanwhile Buffalo has been crushing it since the first of the year. .457 points percentage for the season, but .525 since January 1st.

If you use those numbers....
Pittsburgh finishes with 73, SEA finishes with 74, and Buffalo finishes with 78 points.

It's a crapshoot, but the odds lean a little bit in the Penguins favor to get 4th. I fully expect Buffalo will pass them and the Penguins will get at least 5th. It will be a coin flip between SEA and PIT.

[thehockeyguru]

Losing today helps, however coming back against the Flyers as we did is why We're not getting 4th OA. I'd be thrilled if we got 6OA, but even that is dicey. Very possible though.

Going by games remaining and current points percentage, Penguins should finish with 75-76 points
Seattle should finish with 75-76 points
Buffalo should finish with 75 points

It's essentially a 3 way race. for 4th, 5th, and 6th. BUT....if you look since the start of 2025, the Penguins have been well below their points percentage pace. Points percentage on the season is .460, but since January 1st, it's .396, worst behind only SJ and CHI.

Seattle since January 1st is .435, just slightly under their .459 points percentage on the season.
Meanwhile Buffalo has been crushing it since the first of the year. .457 points percentage for the season, but .525 since January 1st.

If you use those numbers....
Pittsburgh finishes with 73, SEA finishes with 74, and Buffalo finishes with 78 points.

It's a crapshoot, but the odds lean a little bit in the Penguins favor to get 4th. I fully expect Buffalo will pass them and the Penguins will get at least 5th. It will be a coin flip between SEA and PIT.

I am going to make an effort to watch Buffalo the rest of the season. With their roster they should not be this bad

[FLPensFan]

Losing today helps, however coming back against the Flyers as we did is why We're not getting 4th OA. I'd be thrilled if we got 6OA, but even that is dicey. Very possible though.

Going by games remaining and current points percentage, Penguins should finish with 75-76 points
Seattle should finish with 75-76 points
Buffalo should finish with 75 points

It's essentially a 3 way race. for 4th, 5th, and 6th. BUT....if you look since the start of 2025, the Penguins have been well below their points percentage pace. Points percentage on the season is .460, but since January 1st, it's .396, worst behind only SJ and CHI.

Seattle since January 1st is .435, just slightly under their .459 points percentage on the season.
Meanwhile Buffalo has been crushing it since the first of the year. .457 points percentage for the season, but .525 since January 1st.

If you use those numbers....
Pittsburgh finishes with 73, SEA finishes with 74, and Buffalo finishes with 78 points.

It's a crapshoot, but the odds lean a little bit in the Penguins favor to get 4th. I fully expect Buffalo will pass them and the Penguins will get at least 5th. It will be a coin flip between SEA and PIT.

I am going to make an effort to watch Buffalo the rest of the season. With their roster they should not be this bad

Another thing that helps the Penguins. Buffalo and Seattle each have 6 games remaining against non-playoff teams. Penguins have 4. So, strength of schedule is also in Penguins favor of finishing lower.

[Michael74]

Losing today helps, however coming back against the Flyers as we did is why We're not getting 4th OA. I'd be thrilled if we got 6OA, but even that is dicey. Very possible though.

Going by games remaining and current points percentage, Penguins should finish with 75-76 points
Seattle should finish with 75-76 points
Buffalo should finish with 75 points

It's essentially a 3 way race. for 4th, 5th, and 6th. BUT....if you look since the start of 2025, the Penguins have been well below their points percentage pace. Points percentage on the season is .460, but since January 1st, it's .396, worst behind only SJ and CHI.

Seattle since January 1st is .435, just slightly under their .459 points percentage on the season.
Meanwhile Buffalo has been crushing it since the first of the year. .457 points percentage for the season, but .525 since January 1st.

If you use those numbers....
Pittsburgh finishes with 73, SEA finishes with 74, and Buffalo finishes with 78 points.

It's a crapshoot, but the odds lean a little bit in the Penguins favor to get 4th. I fully expect Buffalo will pass them and the Penguins will get at least 5th. It will be a coin flip between SEA and PIT.

I have very little faith in the Sabres passing us. Could they? Yes, but I wouldn't bank on it. Like us I expect the Kraken to sell at the deadline. I certainly would not give us the edge there because I know Sullivan will do everything he can to get this team wins. Thurday and this weekend are a testament to that. We were down by multiple goals in ALL three games and finished 1-1-1. Results like that make it hard to phathom we won't accumulate enough points to finIsh 6th or 7th.

Keep in mind something else, the Ducks just got torched by Chicago 6-3 at home. They're only one point ahead of us. No guarantee they won't fall off. And the iSLANDERS have a tough schedule themselves beyond SJ this week. They have games in hand, but again Sullivan could will this team into beating opponents they shouldn't. Or, win loser points when they look hopelessly lost, like thursday and today. Those are three points they should not have gotten. Sure, you're gonna win now and then. But coming back from multiple goal deficits in seemingly meaningless games will likely cost us 4OA and probably 5thOA. I'm hoping for 6TH OA. Anything higher will be a bonus in my book.

[Michael74]

Losing today helps, however coming back against the Flyers as we did is why We're not getting 4th OA. I'd be thrilled if we got 6OA, but even that is dicey. Very possible though.

Going by games remaining and current points percentage, Penguins should finish with 75-76 points
Seattle should finish with 75-76 points
Buffalo should finish with 75 points

It's essentially a 3 way race. for 4th, 5th, and 6th. BUT....if you look since the start of 2025, the Penguins have been well below their points percentage pace. Points percentage on the season is .460, but since January 1st, it's .396, worst behind only SJ and CHI.

Seattle since January 1st is .435, just slightly under their .459 points percentage on the season.
Meanwhile Buffalo has been crushing it since the first of the year. .457 points percentage for the season, but .525 since January 1st.

If you use those numbers....
Pittsburgh finishes with 73, SEA finishes with 74, and Buffalo finishes with 78 points.

It's a crapshoot, but the odds lean a little bit in the Penguins favor to get 4th. I fully expect Buffalo will pass them and the Penguins will get at least 5th. It will be a coin flip between SEA and PIT.

I am going to make an effort to watch Buffalo the rest of the season. With their roster they should not be this bad

Another thing that helps the Penguins. Buffalo and Seattle each have 6 games remaining against non-playoff teams. Penguins have 4. So, strength of schedule is also in Penguins favor of finishing lower.

On paper that's a valid point. But Pittsburgh loses games they shouldn't and win games they shouldn't.

That's why trading a guy like Rakell would be helpful. If you trade your leaduing goal scorer you at least try to stifle their ability to win games. Only for an excellent return of course, but that's why I want him traded if possible. If not him move out EK if you can for a good return.

Although in Karlssons case he probably does more harm than good.

[Southern Fan]

Jarry recalled. Blomqvist down. Should flip goalie coaches as well.

[KG]

Jarry recalled. Blomqvist down. Should flip goalie coaches as well.

That's a good move. Let Jarry get lit up. Bloom did not look good recently.

[lemieuxReturns]

Jarry recalled. Blomqvist down. Should flip goalie coaches as well.

That's a good move. Let Jarry get lit up. Bloom did not look good recently.

Yea, he is our best chance at a top 5 pick.

[Gunnerfan]

Jarry recalled. Blomqvist down. Should flip goalie coaches as well.

Sully botched the $&(+ outta this. Brought him up and played him 2.5 times. Are we shocked? He was set up to fail in this circumstance I belive.

[Tico Rick]

I'm surprised Jarry is the one they brought up. But I guess that helps them get higher in the draft order. And in the unlikely event that he plays well, he may become tradeable.

[dark_forces]

I'm surprised Jarry is the one they brought up. But I guess that helps them get higher in the draft order. And in the unlikely event that he plays well, he may become tradeable.

I think it's because they are losing a bit of faith in Ned and they don't care about hurting Jarry's feelings. It also speaks larger volumes about not wanting to ruin or hamper the continued development of Blomqvist.

[RonBurgundy]

I'm surprised Jarry is the one they brought up. But I guess that helps them get higher in the draft order. And in the unlikely event that he plays well, he may become tradeable.

I think it's because they are losing a bit of faith in Ned and they don't care about hurting Jarry's feelings. It also speaks larger volumes about not wanting to ruin or hamper the continued development of Blomqvist.

With this defense it doesn’t matter who is in net. Let the future stay in Wilkes and Wheeling where they are not exposed to a constant barrage.

[Michael74]

I'm surprised Jarry is the one they brought up. But I guess that helps them get higher in the draft order. And in the unlikely event that he plays well, he may become tradeable.

I think it's because they are losing a bit of faith in Ned and they don't care about hurting Jarry's feelings. It also speaks larger volumes about not wanting to ruin or hamper the continued development of Blomqvist.

PIT is finally resigned to their fate. And yes, getting Bloom out of this losing environment is a good thing.

[FLPensFan]

Buffalo is down 3-2 in the 3rd against Montreal with 5 minutes left. They lost to Montreal over the weekend. They play SJ tomorrow. 3 losses against those bad teams, and they appear to be in full on tank mode.

[Michael74]

Buffalo is down 3-2 in the 3rd against Montreal with 5 minutes left. They lost to Montreal over the weekend. They play SJ tomorrow. 3 losses against those bad teams, and they appear to be in full on tank mode.

Yeah, I just don't have faith in them passing us. Anaheim and the Isles could be iffy as well their 1 and 3 points up on us respectively but do have games in hand. We just need to lose on this road trip.

[Michael74]

Sabres tied it. At least get to OT!

Habs won in OT. At least it was a three point game.

[largegarlic]

Buffalo is down 3-2 in the 3rd against Montreal with 5 minutes left. They lost to Montreal over the weekend. They play SJ tomorrow. 3 losses against those bad teams, and they appear to be in full on tank mode.

Yeah, I just don't have faith in them passing us. Anaheim and the Isles could be iffy as well their 1 and 3 points up on us respectively but do have games in hand. We just need to lose on this road trip.

That's the thing. The teams below in the standings are by definition very bad, and they can't necessarily be counted on to make up ground on the Pens, even with games in hand.

[Michael74]

Buffalo is down 3-2 in the 3rd against Montreal with 5 minutes left. They lost to Montreal over the weekend. They play SJ tomorrow. 3 losses against those bad teams, and they appear to be in full on tank mode.

Yeah, I just don't have faith in them passing us. Anaheim and the Isles could be iffy as well their 1 and 3 points up on us respectively but do have games in hand. We just need to lose on this road trip.

That's the thing. The teams below in the standings are by definition very bad, and they can't necessarily be counted on to make up ground on the Pens, even with games in hand.

Agreed! And the Ducks and Islanders aren't world beaters either. Hopefully we accrue no points on this road trip and sell off by friday.

[Victor]

Every team close to that 4th overall spot has games in hand - actually the Penguins tops the league with 63 games played so far. But this might not be a good thing. Pittsburgh doesn't play any back-to-back games until the end of the season.

A team like Buffalo, for example, has 4 games in hand but still has 5 back-to-backs. Their first one is tonight against SJ. Anaheim also played 59 so far and has 4 back-to-back games until the end of this season.

[FLPensFan]

Buffalo has now apparently entered full tank mode. Losing 4-2 to San Jose, after dropping 2 straight to Montreal.

[Victor]

Yep, Buffalo lost 6-2 to SJ. They're stuck at 54 points.

Nashville won 6-3 over Boston and moved to 51 points.