The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race

[KG]

We just recalled Nieto. The tank is on!

[Southern Fan]

Graves, Shea, Heinen, Hayes and Acciari will play 25+ minutes against the Bruins.

[Victor]

Graves, Shea, Heinen, Hayes and Acciari will play 25+ minutes against the Bruins.

That's your PP1

[Michael74]

Rangers are playing this game like they want their pick back for this season!

With that loss, Rangers are 6 points out of WC2 with 5 games remaining, very likely to miss the playoffs.

They're also 12th now, 3 points behind Utah for 14th. Pittsburgh might have two picks in the top 12.

If it's that high they'll likely keep the pick. We need them to win a couple here.

It will be interesting to see. At this point it's more likely for them to finish in the top 13. Do they risk sending us an unprotected pick in the '26 draft and see their roster implode even further to finish lower in the standings next year? Or do they cut their losses as soon as they can and have their pick for next year to help them improve their roster if their play improves? I could see them going either way.

Imagine if for some reason Pittsburgh kept their pick last year and needed to send this year's 1st rounder to SJ... and it ends up being a top 5 pick. It would put the Penguins in a much, much worse position.

Yep, glad we didn't give up this years pick instead.


Looking at our schedule it's quite conceivable we can win every game left. Chi AND Bos have combined for THREE wins in their last 22 games. That's not hyperbole. And both WAS and NJ have nothing really to play for at this point. It's more likely we win all four than lose all four. I hope that's not the case or that could louse things up. It'd be A GIFT to go 2-2. We could really screw things up if we keep winning these games. We can still accrue 82 points. Every win and every loss means so much now.

[Michael74]

Seattle wins tonight. Although tied in points and games played, Seattle has more wins in regulation, officially knocking the Penguins back down to 6th overall.

Anaheim also won tonight, jumping up to 76 points with 5 games remaining. There are currently 3 teams with 74 points. The Penguins in 6th overall are the lowest based on games played and regulation wins. Penguins and Seattle both have 74 points, both with 4 games remaining. Buffalo also have 74 points, but both have 6 games remaining. Buffalo is highest in the standings of the 74 point teams.

Games remaining (H or A)
-PIT - CHI(H), NJ(A), BOS(H), WSH(H)
-SEA - UTA(A), VGK(A), STL(H), LA(H)
-ANA - CGY(H), LA(A), COL(H), MIN(A), WPG(A)
-BUF - CAR(H), CBJ(A), FLA(A), TB(A), TOR(H), PHI(H)

Pittsburgh has a good track on 6th or 7th. The nightmare scenario for Pittsburgh would be finishing 6th, only to have Schaefer, Misa, Hagens, Frondell, and Desnoyers go 1-5 in some order. You miss out on the centers and are stuck with either Martone or Eklund. Both have their plusses and minuses, but, neither are really what the Penguins badly need.

No, the nightmare scenario is that we win out. Look at those schedules, we have by far the easiest! We need to lose. CLB is only up on us by three and they are floundering. We could finish anywhere between 7th and 11th.

[Michael74]

Graves, Shea, Heinen, Hayes and Acciari will play 25+ minutes against the Bruins.

That'd be the smart thing to do. We need to lose, period.

[Puck-Lurker]

Stop worrying. We play well against competition of somewhat credible nature and suuuuck against the bottom fodder. An easy schedule is a blessing in terms of tanking.

[Michael74]

Stop worrying. We play well against competition of somewhat credible nature and suuuuck against the bottom fodder. An easy schedule is a blessing in terms of tanking.

In theory you'd be right. But Sullivan has a way of screwing things up.

[Victor]

Stop worrying. We play well against competition of somewhat credible nature and suuuuck against the bottom fodder. An easy schedule is a blessing in terms of tanking.

In theory you'd be right. But Sullivan has a way of screwing things up.

Going 2-2 as you mentioned and having the wins against Washington and New Jersey is what I expect

[Puck-Lurker]

Stop worrying. We play well against competition of somewhat credible nature and suuuuck against the bottom fodder. An easy schedule is a blessing in terms of tanking.

In theory you'd be right. But Sullivan has a way of screwing things up.

Going 2-2 as you mentioned and having the wins against Washington and New Jersey is what I expect

Lets lose to NJ and still beat Caps.

I don't want to lose to Caps. No matter the cost in draft capital.

[Michael74]

Stop worrying. We play well against competition of somewhat credible nature and suuuuck against the bottom fodder. An easy schedule is a blessing in terms of tanking.

In theory you'd be right. But Sullivan has a way of screwing things up.

Going 2-2 as you mentioned and having the wins against Washington and New Jersey is what I expect

Lets lose to NJ and still beat Caps.

I don't want to lose to Caps. No matter the cost in draft capital.

So, you'd rather win a meaningless game to the caps that no one in five years will remember instead of potentially a better draft pick? Brilliant!

That's really sick considering how desperately we are in need of a difference maker for the future.

[pens_CT]

Stop worrying. We play well against competition of somewhat credible nature and suuuuck against the bottom fodder. An easy schedule is a blessing in terms of tanking.

In theory you'd be right. But Sullivan has a way of screwing things up.

Going 2-2 as you mentioned and having the wins against Washington and New Jersey is what I expect

I expect 2-2 as well.

Wins against Chicago and Boston
Losses against NJ (we always play like Crap in Jersey) and Washington

We'll see how they look tonight as this is the first game that "officially" means nothing. They could mail it in tonight.

[ahawk9]

Nice comeback win for the Ducks last night! Flyers win, too, so at least there's an outside chance they could pass the Pens. Philly beat the Rangers, who stand 10th worst at this moment, I believe. I don't mind either year's NYR pick because this one's about guaranteed to be top 15 but if they keep it, next year's draft is allegedly deeper, and I don't know if the Rangers will be any better than they are now. It's a nice pick to have at this point.

[FLPensFan]

Hoping for BUF, SEA, and ANA wins tonight. I have no faith that BOS can even beat Chicago at this point, and I think they are two far below us for it to matter.

Seattle winning would tie them with the Penguins, with 1 more game played. BUF and ANA would move them further up the standings, making it more likely for us to finish 6th or 7th.

[Puck-Lurker]

Hoping for BUF, SEA, and ANA wins tonight. I have no faith that BOS can even beat Chicago at this point, and I think they are two far below us for it to matter.

Seattle winning would tie them with the Penguins, with 1 more game played. BUF and ANA would move them further up the standings, making it more likely for us to finish 6th or 7th.

All of them lost. Oh well..

As it stands, 13.4% chance of getting a top 2 pick.
And 86.6% chance for 7th.

[Victor]

Hoping for BUF, SEA, and ANA wins tonight. I have no faith that BOS can even beat Chicago at this point, and I think they are two far below us for it to matter.

Seattle winning would tie them with the Penguins, with 1 more game played. BUF and ANA would move them further up the standings, making it more likely for us to finish 6th or 7th.

All of them lost. Oh well..

As it stands, 13.4% chance of getting a top 2 pick.
And 86.6% chance for 7th.

Actually it is 86.6% of picking 7th or later - 44.4% of picking 7th, 36.5% of picking 8th and 5.6% of picking 9th - there's also something with rounding as it all adds up to 99.9%

[Puck-Lurker]

Hoping for BUF, SEA, and ANA wins tonight. I have no faith that BOS can even beat Chicago at this point, and I think they are two far below us for it to matter.

Seattle winning would tie them with the Penguins, with 1 more game played. BUF and ANA would move them further up the standings, making it more likely for us to finish 6th or 7th.

All of them lost. Oh well..

As it stands, 13.4% chance of getting a top 2 pick.
And 86.6% chance for 7th.

Actually it is 86.6% of picking 7th or later - 44.4% of picking 7th, 36.5% of picking 8th and 5.6% of picking 9th - there's also something with rounding as it all adds up to 99.9%

Proof I shouldn't do math on my coffee break on friday morning.

[Admin]

Hoping for BUF, SEA, and ANA wins tonight. I have no faith that BOS can even beat Chicago at this point, and I think they are two far below us for it to matter.

Seattle winning would tie them with the Penguins, with 1 more game played. BUF and ANA would move them further up the standings, making it more likely for us to finish 6th or 7th.

All of them lost. Oh well..

As it stands, 13.4% chance of getting a top 2 pick.
And 86.6% chance for 7th.

Actually it is 86.6% of picking 7th or later - 44.4% of picking 7th, 36.5% of picking 8th and 5.6% of picking 9th - there's also something with rounding as it all adds up to 99.9%

Proof I shouldn't do math on my coffee break on friday morning.

You're not giving 100%!

[Victor]

Hoping for BUF, SEA, and ANA wins tonight. I have no faith that BOS can even beat Chicago at this point, and I think they are two far below us for it to matter.

Seattle winning would tie them with the Penguins, with 1 more game played. BUF and ANA would move them further up the standings, making it more likely for us to finish 6th or 7th.

All of them lost. Oh well..

As it stands, 13.4% chance of getting a top 2 pick.
And 86.6% chance for 7th.

Actually it is 86.6% of picking 7th or later - 44.4% of picking 7th, 36.5% of picking 8th and 5.6% of picking 9th - there's also something with rounding as it all adds up to 99.9%

Proof I shouldn't do math on my coffee break on friday morning.

[FLPensFan]

Penguins now look to be honing in on 8th overall, and could potentially end up as high as 13th overall. There are a bunch of scenarios at play for where they could finish:

--Currently in 8th place, with 78 points and 2 games remaining.
--If the Penguins win their final 2 games, and CBJ, DET, and NYR (all at 81 points) all lose their final 3-4 games, the Penguins would pass those teams into 13th overall draft spot.
--If CBJ, DET, and NYR all gain at least 1 point, the Penguins would finish 10th overall, because the Penguins lose the Regulation Wins tiebreaker with all 3 of those teams.

--The Islanders have 79 points and 4 games remaining. If they can get 4 of 8 points, the Penguins could not pass them, and would guarantee the Penguins no worse than 9th (excluding the lottery draft). NYI play PHI, NJ, WSH, and CBJ to close out the season. 3 points, and they could potentially tie the Penguins and tiebreaker still up in the air.

--The Ducks have 78 points and 3 games remaining. If they gain 3 of 6 points, the Penguins could not pass them in the standings. ANA plays MIN, COL, and WPG in their final 3 games.

--Buffalo has 76 points and 4 games remaining. While BUF has been hot (8-2 in last 10), they finish with FLA, TB, TOR, and PHI.

--Seattle has 74 points and 2 games left. Seattle would have to beat STL and LA (both games at home) and Penguins would have 2 lose their last 2 games for Seattle to pass Pittsburgh on the tiebreaker.

[Michael74]

Penguins now look to be honing in on 8th overall, and could potentially end up as high as 13th overall. There are a bunch of scenarios at play for where they could finish:

--Currently in 8th place, with 78 points and 2 games remaining.
--If the Penguins win their final 2 games, and CBJ, DET, and NYR (all at 81 points) all lose their final 3-4 games, the Penguins would pass those teams into 13th overall draft spot.
--If CBJ, DET, and NYR all gain at least 1 point, the Penguins would finish 10th overall, because the Penguins lose the Regulation Wins tiebreaker with all 3 of those teams.

--The Islanders have 79 points and 4 games remaining. If they can get 4 of 8 points, the Penguins could not pass them, and would guarantee the Penguins no worse than 9th (excluding the lottery draft). NYI play PHI, NJ, WSH, and CBJ to close out the season. 3 points, and they could potentially tie the Penguins and tiebreaker still up in the air.

--The Ducks have 78 points and 3 games remaining. If they gain 3 of 6 points, the Penguins could not pass them in the standings. ANA plays MIN, COL, and WPG in their final 3 games.

--Buffalo has 76 points and 4 games remaining. While BUF has been hot (8-2 in last 10), they finish with FLA, TB, TOR, and PHI.

--Seattle has 74 points and 2 games left. Seattle would have to beat STL and LA (both games at home) and Penguins would have 2 lose their last 2 games for Seattle to pass Pittsburgh on the tiebreaker.

ANA would need FOUR points. We're both at 78, They'd have to get to 82 points if we win out. This is bad news! And keep in mind, the Islanders lost Sorokin, so we're passing them if we keep winning.

[BigMcK]

Lost in all of this 'drop the anchor to the bottom to live again', are the players busting their ass in the minors, on a minor league contract, eating hot pockets, just called up to the Show. The current roster of kids will elevate their game to play to impress a Crosby or Malkin.

Tell the kids to not compete hard to impress those who hold their golden ticket for next year. Tank for a draft pick next year? Don't earn that $100k for games played this season? Response: Get off of my cloud to earn a professional contract - money, security, union dental and retirement benefits.

50/50 on the last games to play this season. We scream, "play the kids"; We scream, "Tank, Tank, Tank".

[Pens4Life]

I really really hope we dont win both games and somehow in weird scenario end up with 12-13th pick?! That would be royal screw up..

I'm hoping for Koivunen, Ponomarev rookie goals and losing both..

[Puck-Lurker]

At this point, I'm on the "let's win the lottery" train.

Team won't embrace any tanking scenario, apparently. Despite Sullivan's best efforts.

[KG]

Seeing articles by the local media calling the Pens a “proud” team. Pump the brakes. If they were proud they would win important games when they matter and learn how to defend in crunch time.

Beating teams when they are already locked into their playoff matchup is basically a glorified exhibition game.

They did the same exact thing last season where they played well down the stretch. That didn’t carry over into the next season. Fool me once.