The Playoff Race / The Lottery Race

[100565]

I think top 4 picks are worth getting excited about. There are 2 other players that would be somewhat excitibg to draft. Outside if the top 6, I ain't excited. All of those picks will be 2nd or 3rd line players if their next three years of development go as planned.

Sure, I would prefer pick 7 over 13, but neither is too exciting. W/L doesn't matter much to me at this point. Hoping for some luck in the lottey. Otherwise, I am hoping for trades.

[Puck-Lurker]

I think top 4 picks are worth getting excited about. There are 2 other players that would be somewhat excitibg to draft. Outside if the top 6, I ain't excited. All of those picks will be 2nd or 3rd line players if their next three years of development go as planned.

Sure, I would prefer pick 7 over 13, but neither is too exciting. W/L doesn't matter much to me at this point. Hoping for some luck in the lottey. Otherwise, I am hoping for trades.

It's all relative, can't say for sure with anything for a few years, for most drafted players. The main qualification of the top draft picks seems to be "We're really, really sure they'll have NHL careers", not "They're top line/top pair/starter material" (although they get advertised as such). Just look at the number of former first rounders Rutherford used to pick up; they generally weren't world beaters.

Some players, I've omitted the draft year. How would you rank these? In theory, the earlier the pick the better.

1st round; pick #3
1st round; pick #8
2nd round; pick #44
3rd round; pick #77
3rd round; pick #80

When you attach the actual careers of these players, you wouldn't put them in the order above. I'm excited for seeing new young guys come in, either way.

[FLPensFan]

I think top 4 picks are worth getting excited about. There are 2 other players that would be somewhat excitibg to draft. Outside if the top 6, I ain't excited. All of those picks will be 2nd or 3rd line players if their next three years of development go as planned.

Sure, I would prefer pick 7 over 13, but neither is too exciting. W/L doesn't matter much to me at this point. Hoping for some luck in the lottey. Otherwise, I am hoping for trades.

It's all relative, can't say for sure with anything for a few years, for most drafted players. The main qualification of the top draft picks seems to be "We're really, really sure they'll have NHL careers", not "They're top line/top pair/starter material" (although they get advertised as such). Just look at the number of former first rounders Rutherford used to pick up; they generally weren't world beaters.

Some players, I've omitted the draft year. How would you rank these? In theory, the earlier the pick the better.

1st round; pick #3
1st round; pick #8
2nd round; pick #44
3rd round; pick #77
3rd round; pick #80

When you attach the actual careers of these players, you wouldn't put them in the order above. I'm excited for seeing new young guys come in, either way.

There is talent in this draft. Between 1-5, 5-10, and the rest of the first round, the difference is their ceiling and the time it may take for the players to reach the NHL. I think that is the biggest thing to look at, not....outside of the top 4 the draft isn't good. A few draft numbers:

--Excluding the 2022-2024, since 2000, only 1 top 10 overall draft pick failed to play at least 1 NHL game. 2021 10th overall pick Tyler Boucher. 2021 is still recent. He's only 22 and still in Ottawa's system in the NHL.

--From 2000 to 2021 drafts, 220 players were selected 1-10. Of those, 176 have played over 200 NHL games (80%)...134 have played over 400 NHL games (61%)....85 have played over 700 NHL games (38.6%), and I'd say this is slightly skewed because a lot of players drafted, say, in 2020, haven't even had a realistic chance to play over 700 games (same with 400 for some recent years).

--Aside from Schaefer and Misa, I'm not enthralled with anyone else in this draft. But I think Schaefer and Misa are the clear cut #1 and #2, and top d-man and winger available in the draft. To me, I think there are more questions right now about Hagens and Martone at 3 and 4 being as good as Frondell, Desnoyers, and Eklund to go ahead of them. Hagens hasn't impressed this year, didn't progress his game to the next level. Martone is great if he pans out into the next Tkachuk or Lawson Crouse type, but these big guys sometimes struggle to translate their game to the NHL level.

Another way of saying it is, if the Penguins had the 3rd overall pick, I don't think it would upset me in the slightest if they went with Desnoyers or Frondell over Hagens or Martone.

2 games to go, then Dubas has his work cut out for him this summer, which can't just be make a couple of good picks and call it a day. He needs to clear out some dead or low performing cap (Graves, Jarry, EK65), and pull off a trade or two. Just making picks and signing some filler UFAs won't cut it this summer.

[KG]

Geez, the Rangers have really mailed it in. They will have a decision to make. Not sure it’s smart to give us an unconditional 1st for next seasons supposedly deeper draft.

[largegarlic]

Geez, the Rangers have really mailed it in. They will have a decision to make. Not sure it’s smart to give us an unconditional 1st for next seasons supposedly deeper draft.

Yeah, the Ranger situation is getting really interesting from our point of view (sucks to be one of their fans). Trying to think it through from Drury's point of view (assuming he is GM still after the season), I'd take the relatively high pick this season and bet on myself and my players to turn in a better campaign next year. Even if next year's draft is supposed to be better, it kinda feels Drury would be saying he thinks there's a good chance they'll suck again next season, if he gives the Pens a 10-12 pick this year.

[Michael74]

We could pass the Rangers up if we win out. They play FLA and Tampa. That wouldn't be good.

[FLPensFan]

Geez, the Rangers have really mailed it in. They will have a decision to make. Not sure it’s smart to give us an unconditional 1st for next seasons supposedly deeper draft.

Yeah, the Ranger situation is getting really interesting from our point of view (sucks to be one of their fans). Trying to think it through from Drury's point of view (assuming he is GM still after the season), I'd take the relatively high pick this season and bet on myself and my players to turn in a better campaign next year. Even if next year's draft is supposed to be better, it kinda feels Drury would be saying he thinks there's a good chance they'll suck again next season, if he gives the Pens a 10-12 pick this year.

If I were the Rangers, I would probably take the 2025 pick at this point. As you said, they SHOULDN'T be this bad next year. They have some issues, like Zibanejad and Kreider both having down years (concern about continued age decline or simply bad one bad year), but I think they have enough pieces to not be this bad again next year. Roll the dice that at worst, the pick is going to be around the same spot, not a top 5 or top 10 pick in 2026.

While some may be disappointed, the Rangers giving us next year's pick makes it much easier for Dubas to use our own 1st in an offer sheet, if he wanted to go that route. He'd still have the Rangers pick to fall back on.

1. Draft a player with our pick in 2025
2. Offer sheet a young center with our 2026 pick
3. Draft a player in 2026 with the Rangers 1st round pick.

[Michael74]

We're not giving up our 26 1st which is likely a lottery pick. WTF!

Guarantee that doesn't happen. Can't believe anyone with even a modicum of common sense would say something so ridiculous.

[Michael74]

Geez, the Rangers have really mailed it in. They will have a decision to make. Not sure it’s smart to give us an unconditional 1st for next seasons supposedly deeper draft.

Drury has to keep the pick. He has to have something to show for the year or he could be let go.

[thehockeyguru]

Buffalo was so sloppy in OT they missed out on the extra point

[FLPensFan]

There's a reason someone's been foe'd for a few weeks now....

[Michael74]

Shouldn't be too much to ask for a team that's lost this season to the Bruins, SJ and CHI, just one more bad game, that's all those losers have to do, lose! That's all this team had done for 7 years!

[Michael74]

On the off chance we lose in REG tomorrow we'll be no worse than 9th OA, if we win we could be as high as 12thOA, big difference.

[Puck-Lurker]

There's a reason someone's been foe'd for a few weeks now....

I would go so far as to say it's a very good reason, too. Useful function.

[Ohio_Pens_fan]

I have no idea what “foe’d” means. A little help for the old folks, please.

[Pitts]

Geez, the Rangers have really mailed it in. They will have a decision to make. Not sure it’s smart to give us an unconditional 1st for next seasons supposedly deeper draft.

I'm banking on them being the Rangers and thinking they can sign every UFA this summer and be back on top next year. Thus, giving the Pens next year's pick.

[Pitts]

I have no idea what “foe’d” means. A little help for the old folks, please.

You can block posters on here so you do not need to see their posts. Click on the name of the person, and then click "Foe."

[Michael74]

Geez, the Rangers have really mailed it in. They will have a decision to make. Not sure it’s smart to give us an unconditional 1st for next seasons supposedly deeper draft.

I'm banking on them being the Rangers and thinking they can sign every UFA this summer and be back on top next year. Thus, giving the Pens next year's pick.

Even with the cap going up the contracts to Shesterkin and LAF kick in. They won't have unlimited funds to do so. Put it this way. Unless they offload a couple pretty good players they couldn't get Marner. Although not Sure he'd go there anyhow.

[Ohio_Pens_fan]

I have no idea what “foe’d” means. A little help for the old folks, please.

You can block posters on here so you do not need to see their posts. Click on the name of the person, and then click "Foe."

Belated thanks.

[FLPensFan]

So, if you are hoping for a better potential draft position, today's loss helps significantly. Before the actual lottery:

SJ has locked up spot 1. 3 games remaining, if they won out they could tie Chicago in points, but would lose the first tiebreaker.
CHI has locked up spot 2. 2 games remaining, and there is a 9 point gap between them and 3rd place Nashville
NSH has has locked up spot 3. 2 games remaining, and Boston is 9 points above them.
==========================================================================
Below here, some positioning still going on...

BOS CAN lockup spot 4 if they lose their final game against NJ Tuesday.
SEA CAN lockup spot 5 if they lose their final game against LA on Tuesday.
PHI CAN lockup spot 6 if they lose their final 2 games (CBJ & BUF) AND SEA losses final game; if PHI loses 2 games and SEA wins, PHI moves to 5th spot.
BUF appears to the team that likely WILL NOT finish 7th. They have 2 games left plus one they are currently playing. If they win today, they'll push the Penguins down to 7th. If BUF wins out and teams above them lose, BUF could end up as high as 12-13th overall.

The best the Penguins could get to at this point is 5th overall, but it is very unlikely.
---To get 5th overall, Penguins need to lose against WSH, and SEA needs to WIN Tuesday against LA.
---To get 6th overall, Penguins lose to WSH, SEA loses to LA (keeping them in 5th), and PHI would needs 3 points in their last 2 games.
---To get 7th overall, Penguins lose to WSH, SEA and PHI lose out their games.
---To get 8th overall, Penguins beat WSH, ANA fails to pickup 3 out of possible 6 points remaining.

Mathematically the Penguins can finish anywhere from 5th to 8th overall. Not shot at 4th, and no shot of finishing higher than 8th

[KG]

So, if you are hoping for a better potential draft position, today's loss helps significantly. Before the actual lottery:

SJ has locked up spot 1. 3 games remaining, if they won out they could tie Chicago in points, but would lose the first tiebreaker.
CHI has locked up spot 2. 2 games remaining, and there is a 9 point gap between them and 3rd place Nashville
NSH has has locked up spot 3. 2 games remaining, and Boston is 9 points above them.
==========================================================================
Below here, some positioning still going on...

BOS CAN lockup spot 4 if they lose their final game against NJ Tuesday.
SEA CAN lockup spot 5 if they lose their final game against LA on Tuesday.
PHI CAN lockup spot 6 if they lose their final 2 games (CBJ & BUF) AND SEA losses final game; if PHI loses 2 games and SEA wins, PHI moves to 5th spot.
BUF appears to the team that likely WILL NOT finish 7th. They have 2 games left plus one they are currently playing. If they win today, they'll push the Penguins down to 7th. If BUF wins out and teams above them lose, BUF could end up as high as 12-13th overall.

The best the Penguins could get to at this point is 5th overall, but it is very unlikely.
---To get 5th overall, Penguins need to lose against WSH, and SEA needs to WIN Tuesday against LA.
---To get 6th overall, Penguins lose to WSH, SEA loses to LA (keeping them in 5th), and PHI would needs 3 points in their last 2 games.
---To get 7th overall, Penguins lose to WSH, SEA and PHI lose out their games.
---To get 8th overall, Penguins beat WSH, ANA fails to pickup 3 out of possible 6 points remaining.

Mathematically the Penguins can finish anywhere from 5th to 8th overall. Not shot at 4th, and no shot of finishing higher than 8th

Thanks for putting this together! Not bad 5-8. End of the season is tough to predict with so many teams not playing for anything. Hopefully we move up a slot or 2. And more curious to see where the Rangers finish and what they do with their pick.

[Victor]

So, if you are hoping for a better potential draft position, today's loss helps significantly. Before the actual lottery:

SJ has locked up spot 1. 3 games remaining, if they won out they could tie Chicago in points, but would lose the first tiebreaker.
CHI has locked up spot 2. 2 games remaining, and there is a 9 point gap between them and 3rd place Nashville
NSH has has locked up spot 3. 2 games remaining, and Boston is 9 points above them.
==========================================================================
Below here, some positioning still going on...

BOS CAN lockup spot 4 if they lose their final game against NJ Tuesday.
SEA CAN lockup spot 5 if they lose their final game against LA on Tuesday.
PHI CAN lockup spot 6 if they lose their final 2 games (CBJ & BUF) AND SEA losses final game; if PHI loses 2 games and SEA wins, PHI moves to 5th spot.
BUF appears to the team that likely WILL NOT finish 7th. They have 2 games left plus one they are currently playing. If they win today, they'll push the Penguins down to 7th. If BUF wins out and teams above them lose, BUF could end up as high as 12-13th overall.

The best the Penguins could get to at this point is 5th overall, but it is very unlikely.
---To get 5th overall, Penguins need to lose against WSH, and SEA needs to WIN Tuesday against LA.
---To get 6th overall, Penguins lose to WSH, SEA loses to LA (keeping them in 5th), and PHI would needs 3 points in their last 2 games.
---To get 7th overall, Penguins lose to WSH, SEA and PHI lose out their games.
---To get 8th overall, Penguins beat WSH, ANA fails to pickup 3 out of possible 6 points remaining.

Mathematically the Penguins can finish anywhere from 5th to 8th overall. Not shot at 4th, and no shot of finishing higher than 8th

Thanks for putting this together! Not bad 5-8. End of the season is tough to predict with so many teams not playing for anything. Hopefully we move up a slot or 2. And more curious to see where the Rangers finish and what they do with their pick.

From the teams below the Rangers, only Anaheim can overtake them. Buffalo is losing to Tampa and could only tie with NYR in points, but the Sabres would be behind because the Rangers have more regulation wins.

So theoretically their pick will be in the 8-13 range. If Columbus wins tonight, they'll be 4 points ahead of NYR with 2 games remaining for both teams. The pick will likely be in the 8-12 range.

I think they'll keep the pick regardless of what happens from now on. It might send the wrong message to the locker room if management chooses to keep next year's pick because they're afraid of the team collapsing again.

[Michael74]

Anaheim just needs to win ONE game in regulation to overtake us, regardless of what we do thursday as they hold the regulation win tiebreaker over us. Tonight's the easiest game although none of those games are necessarily easy. Tonight they host COL then have a road trip at MIN AT WIN.

They're at home tonight to COL without Mackinnon, Makar, Toews and Drouin.

[john66]

I have no idea what “foe’d” means. A little help for the old folks, please.

You can block posters on here so you do not need to see their posts. Click on the name of the person, and then click "Foe."

Belated thanks.

Muchas gracias.

[Puck-Lurker]

I can almost bring myself to want Penguins to lose that last game. I'm this close.