2024-2025 Season Random Penguins Fodder

[Victor]

Saw on PP that the NHL released the '25-26 offer sheet tiers. With the cap going up so much next year I assumed most teams would have a ton of space but was surprised to see quite a few estimated with < $10M. The most glaring was DAL, as they have < $6M with only 15 players signed. They can let Benn, Duchene, Dadonov and Granlun walk as UFA's but they still need to replace them with somebody. I'm not sure what their player pipeline looks like. I've seen discussion about Blumel here.

Another interesting team is EDM. Bouchard has to be in line for a massive raise even though he's an RFA. 25 y.o. #1 RD's don't grow on trees. The big factor that I assume really complicates things for them is that McDavid needs a new deal in '26-27. If Draisaitl is $14M per, that's at least gotta be the floor right?

I guess my question is what teams look to be cap casualties in the coming few years that the Pens could target? Trades, offer sheets, UFA's not being resigned by previous team, etc. I really don't see the cap going up anywhere near what it did this coming year in '26-27, given all the economic uncertainty going on right now (please, I'm not looking to start any kind of discussion on this, just pointing it out for the purpose of NHL salary economics). I would assume agents are approaching any contract negotiations with the intent of "gettin' while the gettin's good". Obviously they're always trying to get the most for their clients but have to think there's extra urgency if the cap's going back to flat or minimal increases again. I hope Pens' management is looking at this in their rebuild strategy, not just draft picks, draft pick,s draft picks. I think these cap economics can really be a positive factor in accelerating the rebuild if used effectively.

Thoughts? Again, I'm not very educated on the business side of things so I'm curious to know/learn.

The cap is going up even more the following year. The economy has never been better.

Is the cap increase guaranteed? Everywhere I've seen it it's been phrased as "estimated to" or "could" increase. If that is tied to things like ticket revenue wouldn't that carry a bit of uncertainty and variability TBD beyond this year? Or is that how player escrow works, i.e, the owners and players agree to a set cap increase(s) but the owners hedge a certain amount of potential losses due to revenue variability by being able to recoup from that?

Nothing is set in stone, but, all predictions have the cap going up significantly. Easiest way to put it, some of the hard caps they put around limiting the cap due to COVID was too restrictive and they started making a lot more money sooner than anticipated. I had also heard that this year and last year, the NHL gave the players back their escrow already, meaning they already knew they were well above the 14% or so that they hold to verify that the revenues check out.

I think the new Sportsnet deal that was signed last year has a lot to do with the big surge, but surely is not the sole reason for the increase in revenue, which leads to an increase in the cap.

Here are the latest projections on the cap: https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/nh ... e-seasons/

According to this projection, the cap floor in 27-28 will be almost what the cap ceiling was in 23-24. It could go up very, very quickly.

[Victor]

[Wyopen]

Any thoughts on why KD hasn’t signed any of our own RFAs ?

[Victor]

Any thoughts on why KD hasn’t signed any of our own RFAs ?

He has been with Team Cananda for the World Championship. Maybe that's why we haven't heard anything yet.

There's not a lot of work to do though. None of Dewar, Tomasino, Ponomarev, Timmins, Gauthier should be too difficult to negotiate a new contract with. Gauthier is blocked by other players in net, so he might ask to be moved if all other goalies are kept.

[Puck-Lurker]

Any thoughts on why KD hasn’t signed any of our own RFAs ?

He has been with Team Cananda for the World Championship. Maybe that's why we haven't heard anything yet.

There's not a lot of work to do though. None of Dewar, Tomasino, Ponomarev, Timmins, Gauthier should be too difficult to negotiate a new contract with. Gauthier is blocked by other players in net, so he might ask to be moved if all other goalies are kept.

All of our goalies are blocked by Jarry and Ned. The current pecking order of the rest seems to be Blomqvist, Murashov, Gauthier, Larson.

Jarry you're dealing with sunk cost. He has a bit of cap hit is largely untradeable and when he's on, actually a decent enough starter.

Ned is a backup. Good days and bad days. Not starter material. Though he was a better starter than Jarry last season. I figure Dubas might try to trade Ned or include him in a deal. Wouldn't be surprised if Ned is kept either, his numbers won't make him that attractive.

Blomqvist disappointed a bit during the end of last season. He's youngish still and could bounce back, but it's a sobering experience.

Murashov was riding a hot streak for a while and looked amazing. But he too was out of sorts late season. When Blomqvist was injured, he was called up to WBS, so Pens do think highly of him

Gauthier was looking like he'd be #6, but backed up in WBS during playoffs. If any of the goalies ahead of him are traded he's got a job in Wilkes.

Larsson.. I think that ship sailed. Had a good stretch and fell down to earth after injury.

[FLPensFan]

Any thoughts on why KD hasn’t signed any of our own RFAs ?

He has been with Team Cananda for the World Championship. Maybe that's why we haven't heard anything yet.

There's not a lot of work to do though. None of Dewar, Tomasino, Ponomarev, Timmins, Gauthier should be too difficult to negotiate a new contract with. Gauthier is blocked by other players in net, so he might ask to be moved if all other goalies are kept.

All of our goalies are blocked by Jarry and Ned. The current pecking order of the rest seems to be Blomqvist, Murashov, Gauthier, Larson.

Jarry you're dealing with sunk cost. He has a bit of cap hit is largely untradeable and when he's on, actually a decent enough starter.

Ned is a backup. Good days and bad days. Not starter material. Though he was a better starter than Jarry last season. I figure Dubas might try to trade Ned or include him in a deal. Wouldn't be surprised if Ned is kept either, his numbers won't make him that attractive.

Blomqvist disappointed a bit during the end of last season. He's youngish still and could bounce back, but it's a sobering experience.

Murashov was riding a hot streak for a while and looked amazing. But he too was out of sorts late season. When Blomqvist was injured, he was called up to WBS, so Pens do think highly of him

Gauthier was looking like he'd be #6, but backed up in WBS during playoffs. If any of the goalies ahead of him are traded he's got a job in Wilkes.

Larsson.. I think that ship sailed. Had a good stretch and fell down to earth after injury.

I'd like to see Larsson get a shot in the NHL. His biggest issue for me is he was injured I think 3 times last year. The end of the season, I don't think any of the Penguins goalies really played good. WBS lost steam as a whole at the end of the season with all the callups and injuries of their own.

Gauthier is the only goalie not under contract for next season. Dubas will have his work cut out for him, as none of his goalies deserve to be in Wheeling.
--can he move one of Ned or Jarry over the summer?
--can he move one of Gauthier's rights or Blomqvist in a trade for a younger top 6 or middle pairing d-man?

I doubt there is a taker for Jarry. So, let's say we move Ned, and ride with Jarry and Larsson to start. You still have to figure out how to get Blomqvist, Murashov, and Gauthier the proper workload. Or maybe you start Blomqvist as the NHL backup, and rotate Larsson, Gauthier, and Murashov at the AHL level....50% starts for Murashov, and the other 2 splitting starts, with the hotter of the 2 getting a bit more action. If Blomqvist falters, you bring up Larsson...or maybe later in the season, Murashov. I think Murashov still needs at least half a season in the AHL as the main starter.

Decisions, decisions.

[Puck-Lurker]

Any thoughts on why KD hasn’t signed any of our own RFAs ?

He has been with Team Cananda for the World Championship. Maybe that's why we haven't heard anything yet.

There's not a lot of work to do though. None of Dewar, Tomasino, Ponomarev, Timmins, Gauthier should be too difficult to negotiate a new contract with. Gauthier is blocked by other players in net, so he might ask to be moved if all other goalies are kept.

All of our goalies are blocked by Jarry and Ned. The current pecking order of the rest seems to be Blomqvist, Murashov, Gauthier, Larson.

Jarry you're dealing with sunk cost. He has a bit of cap hit is largely untradeable and when he's on, actually a decent enough starter.

Ned is a backup. Good days and bad days. Not starter material. Though he was a better starter than Jarry last season. I figure Dubas might try to trade Ned or include him in a deal. Wouldn't be surprised if Ned is kept either, his numbers won't make him that attractive.

Blomqvist disappointed a bit during the end of last season. He's youngish still and could bounce back, but it's a sobering experience.

Murashov was riding a hot streak for a while and looked amazing. But he too was out of sorts late season. When Blomqvist was injured, he was called up to WBS, so Pens do think highly of him

Gauthier was looking like he'd be #6, but backed up in WBS during playoffs. If any of the goalies ahead of him are traded he's got a job in Wilkes.

Larsson.. I think that ship sailed. Had a good stretch and fell down to earth after injury.

I'd like to see Larsson get a shot in the NHL. His biggest issue for me is he was injured I think 3 times last year. The end of the season, I don't think any of the Penguins goalies really played good. WBS lost steam as a whole at the end of the season with all the callups and injuries of their own.

Gauthier is the only goalie not under contract for next season. Dubas will have his work cut out for him, as none of his goalies deserve to be in Wheeling.
--can he move one of Ned or Jarry over the summer?
--can he move one of Gauthier's rights or Blomqvist in a trade for a younger top 6 or middle pairing d-man?

I doubt there is a taker for Jarry. So, let's say we move Ned, and ride with Jarry and Larsson to start. You still have to figure out how to get Blomqvist, Murashov, and Gauthier the proper workload. Or maybe you start Blomqvist as the NHL backup, and rotate Larsson, Gauthier, and Murashov at the AHL level....50% starts for Murashov, and the other 2 splitting starts, with the hotter of the 2 getting a bit more action. If Blomqvist falters, you bring up Larsson...or maybe later in the season, Murashov. I think Murashov still needs at least half a season in the AHL as the main starter.

Decisions, decisions.

- If Jarry and Ned both return for next season, all of this is moot I feel; they'll start in Pittsburgh most likely.
--- I don't think there is any scenario where Jarry can be traded in any way that doesn't damage the team longer term
--- There are reasonable scenarios where you can move Ned, which frees up a spot in Pittsburgh.
--- There's also a small, but statistically significant chance, that one of the other goalies displaces Ned. This would bump Ned to the AHL, but I don't think he'd be sidelined there. He'd play; so that doesn't really create depth opportunities, just for the one goalie that bumps him down.
- No trades for Jarry/Ned, you're looking at 4 guys doing musical chairs for a place in Wilkes.
--- Blomqvist is the incumbent, going to have to assume he's the first call-up and WBS starter.
--- Murashov needs to get promoted to the AHL and get a good number of starts. I have him backing up Blomqvist.
--- Gauthier is not signed, but he gets signed if one of the four above is traded. Next step has to be AHL backup, but there's no room currently. Given that he's RFA, Pens can qualify him and keep him around. If there's no room at the inn, there's a decent chance Dubas will let him walk and allow him to find an AHL job elsewhere.
--- Larsson looked great at the start, got injured a couple of times and went way down again. I really believe he's at the bottom of the pecking order. Came over from Sweden, so they kept him in the AHL I imagine. He's also 26, third oldest after Jarry and Ned. I kind of see two paths for him. He goes to the NHL roster as 3rd goalie and gets a few starts while the Penguins make up their mind and try to trade (Jarry or) Ned. This likely ends with Jarry-Ned as tandem anyway. Larsson comes into camp and is assigned an ECHL job or becomes AHL 3rd string..


Trade one of the NHL goalies and the puzzle looks entirely different though.

[Victor]

Jarry is borderline untradeable. Cap space is not an issue in the next couple of seasons, do it doesn't make sense to spend assets to move him. I'd trade Ned for future considerations at this point, just to have the NHL roster spot available. If nothing happens at the draft, I think other teams will try to fill their backup needs with UFAs, so a trade would happen after July 1st.

If Ned is indeed moved, I'd also consider carrying 3 goalies to start the season, with Jarry, Blomqvist and Larsson. It would be worth having a longer look at Blomqvist and Larsson before their contracts are up next summer. It would also be possible to give full reins to Murashov in the AHL, possibly with Gauthier as his backup.

[dark_forces]

There's an interesting rumor tidbit about UFA free agency mentioning the possibility of kicking tires on Tavares July 1st.
The connection makes sense. He's familar with Dubas/Spezza. Geographically, the move wouldn't be terribly far.
He likely wouldn't command more than 3 years in term, and would be a reasonably good replacement for Malkin. For the upcoming season, they could play together—with Malkin shifting to wing.
Tavares has a great reputation as a lockerroom guy as well as a shoulder to lean on for younger players.
Just something for discussion fodder.
I could see it, but I don't expect it.

[KG]

There's an interesting rumor tidbit about UFA free agency mentioning the possibility of kicking tires on Tavares July 1st.
The connection makes sense. He's familar with Dubas/Spezza. Geographically, the move wouldn't be terribly far.
He likely wouldn't command more than 3 years in term, and would be a reasonably good replacement for Malkin. For the upcoming season, they could play together—with Malkin shifting to wing.
Tavares has a great reputation as a lockerroom guy as well as a shoulder to lean on for younger players.
Just something for discussion fodder.
I could see it, but I don't expect it.

I don't know. Would think Tavares would want to go to a contender and chase the Cup since he's never come close to winning one.

[dark_forces]

There's an interesting rumor tidbit about UFA free agency mentioning the possibility of kicking tires on Tavares July 1st.
The connection makes sense. He's familar with Dubas/Spezza. Geographically, the move wouldn't be terribly far.
He likely wouldn't command more than 3 years in term, and would be a reasonably good replacement for Malkin. For the upcoming season, they could play together—with Malkin shifting to wing.
Tavares has a great reputation as a lockerroom guy as well as a shoulder to lean on for younger players.
Just something for discussion fodder.
I could see it, but I don't expect it.

I don't know. Would think Tavares would want to go to a contender and chase the Cup since he's never come close to winning one.

I agree. If I were him, I'd be eyeing Colorado.

[FLPensFan]

There's an interesting rumor tidbit about UFA free agency mentioning the possibility of kicking tires on Tavares July 1st.
The connection makes sense. He's familar with Dubas/Spezza. Geographically, the move wouldn't be terribly far.
He likely wouldn't command more than 3 years in term, and would be a reasonably good replacement for Malkin. For the upcoming season, they could play together—with Malkin shifting to wing.
Tavares has a great reputation as a lockerroom guy as well as a shoulder to lean on for younger players.
Just something for discussion fodder.
I could see it, but I don't expect it.

I don't know. Would think Tavares would want to go to a contender and chase the Cup since he's never come close to winning one.

I agree. If I were him, I'd be eyeing Colorado.

I wouldn't mind it, but not as option A or B. He'll be 35 before the season starts. Even at a 3 year deal, the wheels are gonna start to fall off at some point. He's at 11M today. Even at half of that, there is likely better ways to spend the money.

Again, wouldn't hate it as a fallback option, bu would hate it if this was Dubas plan out the gate.

[FLPensFan]

In Madden's ask me anything today on Twitter:

--Someone asked over or under 4.5 years for Penguins to be legit contenders. Madden took the under.
--Asked for his gut prediction on Penguins Head Coach....he said Mitch Love
--Asked about players besides Barrasso that were jerks to deal with...he cited Laraque. Also said there are a few current ones, but not many.

[Daniel]

In Madden's ask me anything today on Twitter:

--Someone asked over or under 4.5 years for Penguins to be legit contenders. Madden took the under.
--Asked for his gut prediction on Penguins Head Coach....he said Mitch Love
--Asked about players besides Barrasso that were jerks to deal with...he cited Laraque. Also said there are a few current ones, but not many.

I can see under 4.5 years and think the Sullivan system held the team back for several years. I'd like to see what a new coaching staff can do with Jarry, Graves, even Karlsson, as well as team defense before making a ton of changes.

[BigMcK]

In Madden's ask me anything today on Twitter:

--Someone asked over or under 4.5 years for Penguins to be legit contenders. Madden took the under.
--Asked for his gut prediction on Penguins Head Coach....he said Mitch Love
--Asked about players besides Barrasso that were jerks to deal with...he cited Laraque. Also said there are a few current ones, but not many.

I can see under 4.5 years and think the Sullivan system held the team back for several years. I'd like to see what a new coaching staff can do with Jarry, Graves, even Karlsson, as well as team defense before making a ton of changes.

I forsee Karlsson asking for a trade with KD agreeing that this team will not be capable of contending for a championship for a few years. Karlsson will present his list of teams he will not refuse a trade to, and KD will make it happen. All-Star players will make a team want them based on performance. It would be a shock if this doesn't happen by August ... or sooner.

A new coach should not be straddled with unrealistic expectations to turn a group of meh players into a team ready for the playoffs within the first season.

[FLPensFan]

What would everyone think of Aaron Ekblad as a potential replacement if we traded Karlsson? I get the sense that Florida has little intention of re-signing him, based on the fact that he is the longest tenured after Barkov and is a UFA this summer with no extension. Plus, I seemed to recall rumors last year that they wanted to move on.

He has a lot of hard miles on him, dealt with a lot of injuries, but, I think at this point of his career, he's still better defensively than Letang or Karlsson. There aren't quality RD available. Trading Karlsson, trading for Byram's rights, and signing Ekblad would be a nice start to remaking the defense.

Byram-Ekblad
Pickering-Letang
Kolyachonok-Timmins
x-Graves, Shea

[Daniel]

What would everyone think of Aaron Ekblad as a potential replacement if we traded Karlsson? I get the sense that Florida has little intention of re-signing him, based on the fact that he is the longest tenured after Barkov and is a UFA this summer with no extension. Plus, I seemed to recall rumors last year that they wanted to move on.

He has a lot of hard miles on him, dealt with a lot of injuries, but, I think at this point of his career, he's still better defensively than Letang or Karlsson. There aren't quality RD available. Trading Karlsson, trading for Byram's rights, and signing Ekblad would be a nice start to remaking the defense.

Byram-Ekblad
Pickering-Letang
Kolyachonok-Timmins
x-Graves, Shea

Depends on the contract, but he’s the kind of player you get when you’re 1-2 players away, so if Dubas thinks the goalie situation is stable and they can score enough, why not. I wouldn’t give him Graves contract, though I think we’ll see a much better Graves next season.

[dark_forces]

What would everyone think of Aaron Ekblad as a potential replacement if we traded Karlsson? I get the sense that Florida has little intention of re-signing him, based on the fact that he is the longest tenured after Barkov and is a UFA this summer with no extension. Plus, I seemed to recall rumors last year that they wanted to move on.

He has a lot of hard miles on him, dealt with a lot of injuries, but, I think at this point of his career, he's still better defensively than Letang or Karlsson. There aren't quality RD available. Trading Karlsson, trading for Byram's rights, and signing Ekblad would be a nice start to remaking the defense.

Byram-Ekblad
Pickering-Letang
Kolyachonok-Timmins
x-Graves, Shea

If we move on from Karlsson, I'm all for it. He's a winner and won't cost us assets. Plus, it puts Letang on the 2nd pairing, which is as high as he should be playing in the lineup. My main concern is the left side of defense, where I'm assuming only Shea, Pickering, and Graves will return. We absolutely need a bonafide top-4 defender there.

[BigMcK]

At this point, any player that will sign a contract with the Penguins with a no trade condition as the chip to sway them, need to keep on walking.

$$$ in the bank to spend on a proven talent, without the bogie added is what the team needs. Honest pay for Honest results is needed.

The day of a four year agreement with a stipulation that the player can't be moved to a team they don't like is stupid.

[Pitts]

There's an interesting rumor tidbit about UFA free agency mentioning the possibility of kicking tires on Tavares July 1st.
The connection makes sense. He's familar with Dubas/Spezza. Geographically, the move wouldn't be terribly far.
He likely wouldn't command more than 3 years in term, and would be a reasonably good replacement for Malkin. For the upcoming season, they could play together—with Malkin shifting to wing.
Tavares has a great reputation as a lockerroom guy as well as a shoulder to lean on for younger players.
Just something for discussion fodder.
I could see it, but I don't expect it.

I don't know. Would think Tavares would want to go to a contender and chase the Cup since he's never come close to winning one.

Plus, he's old. No thanks. Stay the course and get younger, faster and more physical.

[FLPensFan]

There's an interesting rumor tidbit about UFA free agency mentioning the possibility of kicking tires on Tavares July 1st.
The connection makes sense. He's familar with Dubas/Spezza. Geographically, the move wouldn't be terribly far.
He likely wouldn't command more than 3 years in term, and would be a reasonably good replacement for Malkin. For the upcoming season, they could play together—with Malkin shifting to wing.
Tavares has a great reputation as a lockerroom guy as well as a shoulder to lean on for younger players.
Just something for discussion fodder.
I could see it, but I don't expect it.

I don't know. Would think Tavares would want to go to a contender and chase the Cup since he's never come close to winning one.

Plus, he's old. No thanks. Stay the course and get younger, faster and more physical.

I'm not dead set on it, but...there aren't dozens of under 25 for us to pick and chose from for each position. We want to avoid older players, but we need so much help, there are spots over the next few years this team won't have a choice.

[thehockeyguru]

With the cap going up so much my hope is Dubas will sit back and watch other teams over spend. When teams see the money and term being given out Rakell and Rust will be much more coveted

[Pitts]

Penguins ranked 5th best team name! LOL https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/636559 ... -rankings/

5. Pittsburgh Penguins

The Athletic rating: 3.5 (6th)
Fan rating: 3.7 (7th)

McIndoe: Penguins are adorable, nonthreatening and almost completely harmless. I’m not sure that makes a great sports team name, but at least the whole ice connection works.

Mirtle: Penguins are also sleek, fast and opportunistic! I wish they kept the Igloo name and design with the new rink, even though it wasn’t practical, because Pittsburgh was really nailing the motif.

[lemieuxReturns]

With the cap going up so much my hope is Dubas will sit back and watch other teams over spend. When teams see the money and term being given out Rakell and Rust will be much more coveted

It is a great point. People on the board mentioned this last season. It only works if Rakell and Rust continue to perform though.

[thehockeyguru]

With the cap going up so much my hope is Dubas will sit back and watch other teams over spend. When teams see the money and term being given out Rakell and Rust will be much more coveted

It is a great point. People on the board mentioned this last season. It only works if Rakell and Rust continue to perform though.

At some point we have to get assets back for Rakell and Rust. If Dubas wants to take one last shot at it with Crosby and Malkin then ok, sign a guy like Tavares to a 1 year 12M deal. But if it doesn't work out you better be looking at a fire sale ahead of the next deadline.