ISIS Crisis

[Troy Loney]

Not to sound cold, but it's the EU countries paying ransom that makes it all worthwhile for ISIS. I frankly don't know why it happens.

You mean giving ISIS incentives for kidnapping right?

Yes.

Ok, then I don't understand the response about hiding behind the American military. Then it seems much more an act of national selfishness as opposed to any sort of recklessness.

[Gaucho]

Not to sound cold, but it's the EU countries paying ransom that makes it all worthwhile for ISIS. I frankly don't know why it happens.

Are we talking about more than France here?

Germany, apparently.

[Troy Loney]

So heard a reporter ask McCain about his arming the Syrian Rebel plan. The question posed was basically "who is going to be able to differentiate between good rebels and bad rebels?". McCain's response "I can, I know the Syrian Rebels".

It's terrifying that this guy gets out in front on these military questions.

[Gaucho]

I assume he can see Syria from his porch.

[Troy Loney]

I don't think the Syrian rebels know the syrian rebels.

[tifosi77]

So heard a reporter ask McCain about his arming the Syrian Rebel plan. The question posed was basically "who is going to be able to differentiate between good rebels and bad rebels?". McCain's response "I can, I know the Syrian Rebels".

It's terrifying that this guy gets out in front on these military questions.

[slappybrown]

What's te context for tht pic Tifosi

[Troy Loney]

What's te context for tht pic Tifosi

Showing McCain's expert ability to pick the good guys from the bad in Syria...so he would surely keep American weapons from reaching ISIS.

[slappybrown]

I get that Troy, I meant literally the details around the pic. When, why, etc

[tifosi77]

A little more than a year ago, McCain traveled to Syria to meet with the rebels fighting the Assad regime. Two of the guys he met with where leaders of the "Northern Storm" brigade, a Sunni faction that was (at the time) very much fighting against ISIL. Both of those guys, however, have left Northern Storm and are now key figures in the ISIL presence in the Kurdish territory in Iraq.

The point is at the time the photo was taken, McCain was leading the charge on the Hill to arm the Syrian rebels - the same 'folks' we are talking about arming now. And he says he can tell the good guys from the bad guys. And yet, when he was physically in their presence he was unaware that the people he was posing for selfies with were actively engaged in kidnapping and terror campaigns against Shiites in the region.

It points to the underlying peril of the 'enemy of my enemy is my friend' trope in foreign affairs. Because too often they are not.

[slappybrown]

Thanks. I agree with all of what you wrote from a substantive standpoint. Just was interested in when/where/what of the pic itself. I didn't recall him heading over there.

[Troy Loney]

It points to the underlying peril of the 'enemy of my enemy is my friend' trope in foreign affairs. Because too often they are not.

Agreed. This is just an ongoing fluid situation and these groups are all united by a willingness to fight against the west/US. They might have more immediate enemies inside the region. But all ultimately are against the US presence.

[Sam's Drunk Dog]

Arming anyone in that region is a bad idea.

[tifosi77]

The paradox of ISIL is that they do not, at their core, want to bring violence to the U.S., at least not yet. They are not like al Qaeda, who have an ongoing open jihad against the West and a fatwah for Muslims to kill non-Muslims. However, ISIL will strike out at anyone who deigns to interfere in their territorial aspirations to conquer much of the Middle East and northern Africa (and SPAIN!!!) and establish a modern caliphate. So if we stand off on the sidelines and let them rape and pillage their way from Baghdad to Tangier, they won't mess with us. But if we try to stop them.... it's a real mess.

There was a guy on the radio (To The Point, PRI/NPR) who used to be an intelligence analyst for State Department, and he was quite strongly playing down the tangible threat ISIS posed to us here at home. He cited as evidence the fact that they have not made any attacks against anyone outside of their self-controlled territory, and do not possess the capability to strike on U.S. shores. As I was listening to it, I thought "That's exactly how we viewed al-Qaeda before 9/11, as regards the physical capability to hit the U.S. homeland." In fact, al-Qaeda had never mounted an attack in the U.S. before 9/11. (The 1993 WTC bombing was not strictly speaking an al-Qaeda operation.) So that's a bit of a wonky metric to use as your bellwether. I also thought it was odd that he felt the best funded terrorist group in the history of the world did not have the physical capacity to figure out how airplanes work.

So this is the struggle that I have with trying to come to a policy decision to support. This is an order of magnitude more significant than al-Qaeda ever was, and yet direct intervention seems assured of bringing violence to our shores. I'm glad other people have to figure this out.

[tifosi77]

That said, I have come to a crucial decision regarding one element of this: despite it seeming to confer a measure of respect to the organization by using the historic term 'Levant' instead of the modern moniker 'Syria', I simply like Archer too much to use the term ISIS.

Altho, I wonder if the show's producers will want to change the name? International Secret Intelligence Service has a nice ring to it, but.....

[Pitt87]

A little more than a year ago, McCain traveled to Syria to meet with the rebels fighting the Assad regime. Two of the guys he met with where leaders of the "Northern Storm" brigade, a Sunni faction that was (at the time) very much fighting against ISIL. Both of those guys, however, have left Northern Storm and are now key figures in the ISIL presence in the Kurdish territory in Iraq.

The point is at the time the photo was taken, McCain was leading the charge on the Hill to arm the Syrian rebels - the same 'folks' we are talking about arming now. And he says he can tell the good guys from the bad guys. And yet, when he was physically in their presence he was unaware that the people he was posing for selfies with were actively engaged in kidnapping and terror campaigns against Shiites in the region.

It points to the underlying peril of the 'enemy of my enemy is my friend' trope in foreign affairs. Because too often they are not.

This... oh, plus all these guys: http://syriantaskforce.org/index.php/ab ... n-dc-staff

These comments read like you're suggesting that John McCain was colluding with a known enemy. I'd suggest that in some cases your 2013 friends, which is when the photo was taken, can become enemies in 2014.

[DelPen]

I think it says more about how ignorant John McCain is in this and just about everything else he gets involved in.

[tifosi77]

These comments read like you're suggesting that John McCain was colluding with a known enemy. I'd suggest that in some cases your 2013 friends, which is when the photo was taken, can become enemies in 2014.

He certainly wasn't colluding, but that was only because as a Senator he couldn't. But the guys were known terrorists at the time of the visit. As soon as the McCain photos were published, the family one of the Lebanese kidnap victims identified the dude circled in the picture. At the time, his press secretary said if the guy was indeed the Northern Brigade guy, then the photo would be 'regrettable'.

I am not suggestion that McCain did anything untoward, in a criminal sense. Just irresponsible in precisely the best way to underscore the folly of arming rebels against a dictator. (In other words, what DelPen wrote)

[Shyster]

Arming anyone in that region is a bad idea.

If one learns anything from this, it's that when it comes to the Middle East, the enemy of your enemy is not your friend. For example, radical Saudi Wahabbis hate radical Iranian Shias, but that doesn't stop either of them from equally hating the U.S. or the west in general. And there is certainly no gurarantee that the ouster of a secular dictator will result in a secular democracy. We helped the Egyptians oust Mubarak, and Muslim Brotherhood parties won the subsequently elections and tried to implement an Islamist constitution. Only an army coup stopped them. We helped rebels oust Gaddafi in Libya, and while the Islamist parties did not do well in elections, they did launch a civil war that is still ongoing.

[tifosi77]

We insisted on elections in Gaza (because, democracy!) and they voted for Hamas.

[shafnutz05]

We insisted on elections in Gaza (because, democracy!) and they voted for Hamas.

When it comes to that part of the world, democracy is often a bad thing. When you have such a significant part of the population that

a) hates the West
b) endorses radical Islam
c) both a and b

The monsters they vote into power will generally be worse than the dictator they had before.

[columbia]

PBP had it right about being very skeptical of the revolution in Egypt. It feels odd to think that a return to a strong man has been the best outcome, but that's where we are.

[Factorial]

So heard a reporter ask McCain about his arming the Syrian Rebel plan. The question posed was basically "who is going to be able to differentiate between good rebels and bad rebels?". McCain's response "I can, I know the Syrian Rebels".

It's terrifying that this guy gets out in front on these military questions.

Spoiler:

Four Pinocchios for Rand Paul’s (and Tif's) claim that McCain met with the Islamic State

“Here’s the problem. He [Sen. John McCain] did meet with ISIS, and had his picture taken, and didn’t know it was happening at the time.”

–Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), in an interview with The Daily Beast, Sept. 16, 2014

Just because it’s on the Internet, it doesn’t mean it’s true. Yet here’s a U.S. senator, repeating a rumor about one of his GOP colleagues, as if it were an actual fact. Paul cited it as part of his argument that U.S. funding of attacks against the terrorist group Islamic State, also known as ISIS, will be problematic because it “really shows you the quandary of determining who are the moderates and who aren’t.”

The Pinocchio Test

There are days when we regret we are limited to just Four Pinocchios. This is one of those days. There is zero evidence that any of the men that McCain met with in Syria are linked to the Islamic State. One can have a legitimate debate about whether it is worth arming the Syrian rebels without resorting to innuendo, fake news reports and invented facts.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fac ... mic-state/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Factorial]

Here's an article from 9/11 on that photo:

Nurtured by conspiracy blogposts, social media and photo-altering tricks, the false rumors of Mr. McCain’s relationship with ISIS have taken on a life of their own. One doctored photo shows the senator, an Arizona Republican, pinning a medal on Mr. Baghdadi’s chest.

I am not a McCain fan by any means but this is an example of how you can't believe a lot of what you read/see on the internets.


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/12/world ... .html?_r=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[columbia]

On the surface, this arming Syrian groups idea seems pretty sketchy.