The Return of the Playoff Tracker Thread

[lemieuxReturns]

Couldn't ask for a better night!

Turkey is now on the table!

Absolutely perfect!

[Sams_Dog]

The planets seem to be aligning

[DelPen]

The planets seem to be aligning

This team was competent until the solar eclipse in 2017, maybe the eclipse on Monday is going to reset the Pens?

[Badger Bob]

They could eclipse our earlier expectations, amirite? Only problem is, sounds like the weather will be cloudy on Monday around the 'burgh. Just like the Pens future.

[Puck-Lurker]

The planets seem to be aligning

This team was competent until the solar eclipse in 2017, maybe the eclipse on Monday is going to reset the Pens?

All 8 planets will align next in 2492 I think..... Thats about as distant as the playoffs feel for this season. Still not impossible and less impossible than it was...

We're back to a 1/4 chance to make it, DNCD applies.

Ah we will see. Worst case our 1st rounder goes to Sharks this year, we don't make it and get a 1st next year.

[FLPensFan]

I thought a return to something with a more positive focus thread name was in order, seeing they may actually make the playoffs.

[Admin]

I thought a return to something with a more positive focus thread name was in order, seeing they may actually make the playoffs.

[Southern Fan]

After the Colorado overtime loss on March 24, we had 70 points and the Flyers had 81. After last night, Flyers have 83 and we have 81. Torts for the reverse Jack Adams.

[Puck-Lurker]

I thought a return to something with a more positive focus thread name was in order, seeing they may actually make the playoffs.

How dare you! How dare you post positive messages!

(j/k)

[lemieuxReturns]

What is our percentage now?

[FLPensFan]

What is our percentage now?

39.2% according to Moneypuck.
Then DET at 37.2%
Then WSH at 33.6%
Then PHI at 27%

Islanders are currently 60.6%
Penguins and Islanders are both on 4 game winning streaks. Penguins have most points in their last 10 games (14), followed by Isles with 12, DET with 10, WSH with 9, and PHI with 7.

Looks like things are lining up for a battle between Isles and Penguins for the 3rd Metro and WC2 spot.

[Admin]

Still 0.1% for the Cup? Come on, Moneypuck!

[DelPen]

Th goal differential for the bubble teams is pathetic except for us barely positive at +5 and Wings +1.

[pronovost19]

41.7 % chance of getting into playoffs according to my calculations. Good thing Rangers playing for home field. They have the Isles twice. Little gust Romes!

[KG]

Let’s go Buffalo!!

[Puck-Lurker]

My numbers:

controls destiny
does not control destiny

ME3
Islanders: 43%
Penguins 25%
Capitals 22%
Flyers 10%

WC2
Wings 44%
Capitals 18%
Islanders 15%
Penguins 12%
Flyers 9%

Making the playoffs (any)
Islanders 58%
Wings 44%
Capitals 40%
Penguins 37%
Flyers 18%

(EDIT: As noted, Pens actually do control destiny to obtain at least one of ME3 or WC2 if they win out in regulation)

[penny lane]

If I must, will hope the rangers score more goals than the isles.

[KG]

Let’s go Buffalo!!

Maybe not! Buffalo already down 2-0.

[Ericf]

My numbers:

controls destiny
does not control destiny

ME3
Islanders: 43%
Penguins 25%
Capitals 22%
Flyers 10%

WC2
Wings 44%
Capitals 18%
Islanders 15%
Penguins 12%
Flyers 9%

Making the playoffs (any)
Islanders 58%
Wings 44%
Capitals 40%
Penguins 37%
Flyers 18%

The Pens do control their destiny for one of the two playoff spots because they play the Wings and Isles and have regulation wins on both of them. If they win out, they have a playoff spot and which one would depend on the Caps

[Badger Bob]

Let’s go Buffalo!!

Maybe not! Buffalo already down 2-0.

Hey! Buffalo got one!























and so did Detroit.

[VA Fan]

As far as controlling destiny don’t the Caps and the Wings have a game in hand on the Pens?

[KG]

Detroit with a big 2 points in regulation against Buffalo. Leap frog us into WC2...

[Puck-Lurker]

My numbers:

The Pens do control their destiny for one of the two playoff spots because they play the Wings and Isles and have regulation wins on both of them. If they win out, they have a playoff spot and which one would depend on the Caps

You are of course correct. Penguins control destiny for obtaining < at least one of ME3 and WC2 >, but don't control their destiny for either one specifically.

- Penguins win out (in regulation), their point total goes to 93 and 36 regulation wins.
- Wings OR Capitals win everything - except against Penguins - 94 Pts
- Capitals win everything - except against Penguins, SO loss to Wings - 93 Pts, 33 RW
- Wings win everything - except against Penguins, SO loss to Caps - 93 Pts, 30 RW
- Islanders win everything - except against Penguins - 93 Pts and 30 RW.
- Flyers win everything - except against Penguins - 91 Pts
(Naturally, some of these are mutually exclusive. Caps have games against Wings and Flyers)

Detroit with a big 2 points in regulation against Buffalo. Leap frog us into WC2...

We play Wings in a couple of days. Gotta get past all of these teams one way or another or we have no business making it to the playoffs anyway

[Sigwolf]

As far as controlling destiny don’t the Caps and the Wings have a game in hand on the Pens?

The Caps game in hand is meaningless, as the Pens can't affect whether the Caps make it, and will make the playoffs with all regulation wins regardless of whether the Caps do or do not. (2 spots open).

The Wings game in hand was also meaningless, it only allowed the Wings to pass the Pens by one point for the last WC spot *right now*. If the Pens still get all regulation wins, that means they would beat the Wings in regulation, thereby leapfrogging them right back. Had the Wings lost that game in hand, it could have made the Pens job easier, but still doesn't affect the Pens controlling their own destiny.

Controlling your own destiny in this case simply means if they win all remaining games in regulation, they make the playoffs. Currently, the Pens, Isles, Caps, and Wings are *all* in the position of controlling their own destiny, though only two of those four at most can actually do it. This is due to the remaining games played against each other.

In reality, it's unlikely that any of the four will win out their remaining schedule. So losses, or even OT/SO wins against the wrong opponent, can cause the remaining teams to lose or regain that control over their destiny in the coming days.

There are mathematically still 7 teams that are competing for the 2 remaining spots, but only the aforementioned four control their own destiny by winning out. The Flyers, Devils, and Sabres would need significant outside help.

[Maestro]

Yeah I was thinking if pens get 6 more points that would be about as expected.

But in the room win or die is giving them the right juice.
Smith showing a pulse has been nice.