The Return of the Playoff Tracker Thread

[Badger Bob]

I prefer chonky = 100%.

[Three Stars]

[KG]

Don’t think there is much difference between metro third and second wild card. Almost better if Isles win out and coast in game 82.

Agreed. 3rd in Metro or WC2 doesn't make a difference.

[Admin]

I prefer chonky = 100%.

Same.

Would be nice to give Ned a rest in Game 82 if it's already wrapped up but something tells me that that's not going to happen.

[Puck-Lurker]

Well, at the beginning of the season, with all the trades and new players coming in, I wanted one thing, the same thing Nero wanted according to the old '51 film.

"Let it be wonderful!!
... or let it be awful.
So long as it is uncommon!"

Most of the season failed to be either and was just meh, what I didn't want to see. But these are exciting times and I love it. Doesn't matter if we make it, at least the ride is exciting now!


Pens: BOS, NSH, NYI
Caps: TB, BOS, PHI
Wings: TOR, MTL, MTL
Flyers: WSH, NJ

If Pens get 5/6 points (with at least one regulation win) that cannot be beaten, but that's still a tall order against maybe the toughest schedule of the four. We will need Caps and Wings to flub one too.

[FLPensFan]

Well, at the beginning of the season, with all the trades and new players coming in, I wanted one thing, the same thing Nero wanted according to the old '51 film.

"Let it be wonderful!!
... or let it be awful.
So long as it is uncommon!"

Most of the season failed to be either and was just meh, what I didn't want to see. But these are exciting times and I love it. Doesn't matter if we make it, at least the ride is exciting now!


Pens: BOS, NSH, NYI
Caps: TB, BOS, PHI
Wings: TOR, MTL, MTL
Flyers: WSH, NJ

If Pens get 5/6 points (with at least one regulation win) that cannot be beaten, but that's still a tall order against maybe the toughest schedule of the four. We will need Caps and Wings to flub one too.

Something tells me that the Caps aren't going to beat both BOS and TB.
And I don't see Detroit sweeping. Montreal beat up the Flyers the other day, and Toronto isn't an easy team.

I like our chances.

[Puck-Lurker]

Well, at the beginning of the season, with all the trades and new players coming in, I wanted one thing, the same thing Nero wanted according to the old '51 film.

"Let it be wonderful!!
... or let it be awful.
So long as it is uncommon!"

Most of the season failed to be either and was just meh, what I didn't want to see. But these are exciting times and I love it. Doesn't matter if we make it, at least the ride is exciting now!


Pens: BOS, NSH, NYI
Caps: TB, BOS, PHI
Wings: TOR, MTL, MTL
Flyers: WSH, NJ

If Pens get 5/6 points (with at least one regulation win) that cannot be beaten, but that's still a tall order against maybe the toughest schedule of the four. We will need Caps and Wings to flub one too.

Something tells me that the Caps aren't going to beat both BOS and TB.
And I don't see Detroit sweeping. Montreal beat up the Flyers the other day, and Toronto isn't an easy team.

I like our chances.

I'm with you there. I like that we even have chances. There are enough variants where 3 points are enough and the odds bear that out to roughly ~45%. Let's make it happen!

[FLPensFan]

Islanders need to earn a single point in their final 2 games to at least deny the Penguins 3rd in the Metro.

The Penguins now need to earn more points than WSH and DET to move into WC2 spot. Not sure what the 2nd tiebreaker is, but, theoretically, if the Penguins won their last 2 in OT/SO, and the Capitals win a game in regulation, then lose a game via OT/SO, Penguins and Caps would have same amount of points and same amount of Regulation Wins. I think Regulation and Overtime Wins is the next tiebreaker (but not certain), in which case the Penguins would win 2nd tiebreaker.

[Puck-Lurker]

Islanders need to earn a single point in their final 2 games to at least deny the Penguins 3rd in the Metro.

The Penguins now need to earn more points than WSH and DET to move into WC2 spot. Not sure what the 2nd tiebreaker is, but, theoretically, if the Penguins won their last 2 in OT/SO, and the Capitals win a game in regulation, then lose a game via OT/SO, Penguins and Caps would have same amount of points and same amount of Regulation Wins. I think Regulation and Overtime Wins is the next tiebreaker (but not certain), in which case the Penguins would win 2nd tiebreaker.

Tiebreakers in order:
- Points total (duh!)
- Lower number of games played (should be 82, can be ignored)
- Regulation wins (RW) (Pens 31, Caps 30, Flyers 30, Wings 27)
- Regulation wins + Overtime wins (ROW) (Pens 35, Caps 34, Flyers 34, Wings 37)
- Regulation wins + Overtime wins + Shootout wins (W) (Pens 37, Caps 38, Flyers 38, Wings 39)
- Points gained in games between tied teams (some extra rules for "odd" series)
- Goal differential (excluding the extra "goal" for SO win)
- Goal differential

It's really close if it gets to tiebreakers. Say Pens add a win and an OT loss, Caps win and lose one. Then RW and ROW are tied, total wins then count and Pens will be playing golf. I can't overstate how much of a disaster last night was for our playoff chances.

The only road I see, that (A) Pens win both their last two games and (B) Caps drop at least one point. It's not impossible, Nashville's a lock for the playoffs and Isles probably will be by the time we play them. On the other end, I expect Caps to struggle against Bruins and Flyers.


That said, ignoring the possibility of making ME3, I'd say we're down to 6% by now.

[Coffey Break]

Islanders need to earn a single point in their final 2 games to at least deny the Penguins 3rd in the Metro.

The Penguins now need to earn more points than WSH and DET to move into WC2 spot. Not sure what the 2nd tiebreaker is, but, theoretically, if the Penguins won their last 2 in OT/SO, and the Capitals win a game in regulation, then lose a game via OT/SO, Penguins and Caps would have same amount of points and same amount of Regulation Wins. I think Regulation and Overtime Wins is the next tiebreaker (but not certain), in which case the Penguins would win 2nd tiebreaker.

Tiebreakers in order:
- Points total (duh!)
- Lower number of games played (should be 82, can be ignored)
- Regulation wins (RW) (Pens 31, Caps 30, Flyers 30, Wings 27)
- Regulation wins + Overtime wins (ROW) (Pens 35, Caps 34, Flyers 34, Wings 37)
- Regulation wins + Overtime wins + Shootout wins (W) (Pens 37, Caps 38, Flyers 38, Wings 39)
- Points gained in games between tied teams (some extra rules for "odd" series)
- Goal differential (excluding the extra "goal" for SO win)
- Goal differential

It's really close if it gets to tiebreakers. Say Pens add a win and an OT loss, Caps win and lose one. Then RW and ROW are tied, total wins then count and Pens will be playing golf. I can't overstate how much of a disaster last night was for our playoff chances.

The only road I see, that (A) Pens win both their last two games and (B) Caps drop at least one point. It's not impossible, Nashville's a lock for the playoffs and Isles probably will be by the time we play them. On the other end, I expect Caps to struggle against Bruins and Flyers.

That said, ignoring the possibility of making ME3, I'd say we're down to 6% by now.

If I have it correct in my head. Two scenarios:

WC2: WSH AND DET have to lose in regulation atleast one game each - Pens have to win out.
--> WSH (Bos and Phi)
--> DET (MTL 2x)

Metro3: NYI lose out in regulation and Pens win out.
--> NYI (NJ, PIT)

Metro3 is an absolute pipedream but if NJ can find a way to win Monday night against NYI - it's setup for an all-time brawl on Wednesday night if WSH also loses one of their 2.

[Puck-Lurker]

There's 7 games that still matter.

MTL-DET, NYI-NJ, NSH-PIT, BOS-WSH, DET-MTL, WSH-PHI and PIT-NYI. Each of those has 6 possible outcomes, which is about 5000 different variations (5040 I think?)
Worth noting is that there will be a winner of WSH-PHI, which means at least one of them gets 2 points (and potentially the other 1 point as well).

Some squick scribbling...

1.) Pens on 89 points

1a.) WSH loses to BOS in regulation
- DET loses both games in regulation, PHI beats WSH in regulation, Pens qualify.
- DET splits games against MTL in regulation, PHI beats WSH in regulation, Pens qualify.
- DET loses both games in regulation, WSH beats PHI in regulation, Pens qualify.
- DET splits games against MTL in regulation, WSH beats PHI in regulation, Pens qualify.
- DET wins both games in regulation, Pens don't qualify

1b.) WSH wins against BOS in regulation
- DET loses both games in regulation, PHI beats WSH in regulation, Pens qualify.
- DET splits games against MTL in regulation, PHI beats WSH in regulation, Pens qualify.
- DET loses both games in regulation, WSH beats PHI in regulation, Pens don't qualify.
- DET splits games against MTL in regulation, WSH beats PHI in regulation, Pens don't qualify.
- DET wins both games in regulation, Pens don't qualify

2) Pens on 90 points
Pens win both their games end on 90 points; Flyers can't beat that. Only Isles, Caps, Wings in the way for both spots.

2a.) NYI loses to NJ in regulation, Pens overtake NYI.
- WSH and DET both win their remaining games, Pens don't qualify
- Either WSH or DET drops a point, Pens qualify.

2b.) NYI gains at least 1 point against NJ
- WSH and DET both win their remaining games, Pens don't qualify.
- DET wins their remaining games, Pens don't qualify.
- WSH wins their remaining games, Pens don't qualify.
- Both WSH and DET drop a point, Pens qualify.

We are so ****ed. I think ME3 is even the better bet at this point

[Southern Fan]

Three weeks ago would anyone have expected the Pens having a 1 in 5 chance of making the playoffs with 2 games left? Predators are good but they aren’t the Bruins. Minor hope lives.

Get in and extend the season for 10 days.

[Admin]

Second season in a row where they controlled their own destiny. That's the frustrating part.

[DelPen]

Second season in a row where they controlled their own destiny. That's the frustrating part.

Last season though should had been a slam dunk with being in a playoff position and needing to beat the two worst teams in the NHL to make it. Asking any team to win 3 more games in a row all against current playoff teams is a tall order especially after the crazy point streak they were just on.

[Puck-Lurker]

Three weeks ago would anyone have expected the Pens having a 1 in 5 chance of making the playoffs with 2 games left? Predators are good but they aren’t the Bruins. Minor hope lives.

Get in and extend the season for 10 days.

About 1 in 7..

But I'm here for it. If we win two games, we probably make it.

[penny lane]

Three weeks ago would anyone have expected the Pens having a 1 in 5 chance of making the playoffs with 2 games left? Predators are good but they aren’t the Bruins. Minor hope lives.

Get in and extend the season for 10 days.

About 1 in 7..

But I'm here for it. If we win two games, we probably make it.

[Cow_Master66]

I can't imagine any scenario this team beats NYI if NY is still playing for something....Feels like the kind of game they would lose 5-1.

[KG]

Almost a must win game tonight. Have to go with Ned here.

That point they gave up to Detroit was ridiculously unnecessary and might be the point that keeps them out of the playoffs.

[Puck-Lurker]

Almost a must win game tonight. Have to go with Ned here.

That point they gave up to Detroit was ridiculously unnecessary and might be the point that keeps them out of the playoffs.

In theory... an OT/SO loss *might* be enough, but depends on a lot of IFs and IFFs. Best not, we need two points.

Let's go Pens!

[DelPen]

Great news, looks like Harkins and his 0 goals will be playing tonight.

[KG]

Great news, looks like Harkins and his 0 goals will be playing tonight.

Harkins getting the GWG tonight!

[penny lane]

Remember it was Orpik with a gwg v the isles.
The goalie with a blood clot issue, *edit* Tomas Vokoun who played in playoffs and conference final.
Anyone dressed can be the hero

[DelPen]

Flyers have the tiebreakers over the Wings and Caps provided they win in regulation against Washington tomorrow. Caps will have the RW tiebreaker over the Wings so any win and they are in. Pens have the RW over everyone if there is a tie in points.

I think the math is right. Bottom line the Caps and Wings lose in regulation we are in with a point. Losing in OT we need 2 points. If they win in any fashion we are out.

[Sigwolf]

The plus side is that the Flyers have something to play for... the minus side is the Canadiens do not.

[KG]

This illustrates how bad the playoff bubble teams in the East really were this season.