FLPensFan's plan for Dubas

[FLPensFan]

If I were Kyle Dubas for 30 days, this is the plan that I would execute for the Penguins: (extremely long post...you've been warned)

1. Dubas calls in Sid, Geno, Letang to his office together. He explains that changes need to be made in multiple areas from coaching to players. I do not plan a full gut of the roster and rebuild, but it has become painfully obvious this roster needs a major upgrade around you. The path taken the last 2 years has not worked. We need to add some skilled youth, and we need to add some guys who are tougher to play against. I think I can put us into a better position to succeed, and give us a better chance by making these changes. We would like the 3 of you to remain on board with this plan, but we will also respect your wishes if you want to move elsewhere to make a final run. Think it over, talk it over with your agent, your family, each other,etc. I need a decision from each of you in the next 48 hours, so I can plot out the actions I need to take. I hope you will all stay here through this, but I understand if you want to take a final chance somewhere else.

2. Dubas calls Sullivan into his office. Mike, I've got to blow things up. This isn't working. I'm going to make major changes to the roster as a start. That may include pieces of the core leaving, only if they choose that decision on their own. I need to make a change behind the bench, Mike. There are lots of reasons why this hasn't worked over the past 6 years, but at the end of the day, it just hasn't worked or led to success. I'm going to have to remove you as head coach to move forward. I think you are a great coach, but your time with this team has passed, and I cannot take the chance again that reworking the roster will allow you to be successful. I can relieve you of your duties, or, I can move you into another position on my team, and potentially give you another shot behind the bench when Sid and the core are gone.

3. Dubas calls Karlsson into his office. Erik, I know we brought you here and the goal was to get you to the playoffs. We've obviously come up short on that goal. I've decided to do some restructuring of the team as a whole that will impact our coaching staff and some of our players. I need to know from you, if you'd like to stay on board while I work to restructure the team to give us a better playoff shot, or if you'd rather move somewhere else. This is not going to be a full on rebuild. If you choose the latter, because of your contract, I have no guarantees that I can accommodate that request. I think you have more to give here and can work here. I need to know in the next 48 hours what your decision is, so that I can plot out the actions I need to take.

4. Dubas trades Nedeljkovic at the deadline for a 2nd/3rd, and calls up Blomqvist to get a few games of NHL experience down the stretch.

5. Dubas trades Guentzel (with retention, which could add a 2nd rounder) at the deadline for a 1st, an A/B level prospect, and a younger top 9 player.

6. Dubas trades Eller for a 2nd and a C level prospect.

7. Dubas officially fires Sullivan and Reirden. Vellucci is named interim coach for the rest of the season, while Dubas evaluates what is out on the market. Vellucci gets a chance to remain into next season, but that is unlikely. More than likely, I'm looking at an AHL level coach that is highly praised for their work with young players, or an NHL assistant of the same mold. For lack of a better term, I want to find the Mike McDaniel of the NHL...someone that can mesh well with the players, but implement good systems and teach (we'll leave out fold in big games for my example).


Here's what I would do for trades before the deadline. I looked at a lot of different scenarios, looking at cap space, current roster construction of other teams, and prospects available coming to us. These were the best 3 moves I think I could realistically make:

1. Jake Guentzel (50% retained) and Lars Eller to EDM for 2025 1st round pick, 2026 2nd round pick, Dylan Holloway, Ryan McLeod, and Jack Campbell (50% retained)
--Campbell has 3 more years at 5M AAV. Edmonton is currently burying him in the minors, and he counts 3.85M against Edmonton's cap. By trading him with 50% retained, they are now only paying 2.5M per season on him, saving 1.3M. Pittsburgh can bury him in the minors, counting only 1.35M against their NHL cap.
--At the beginning of this month, The Athletic ranked the Oilers prospect system as 25th overall. Holloway was still ranked #1, with Bourgault and Broberg a close 2nd and 3rd. He's had two surgeries on his wrist that set him back a bit, but, here were the big statements from The Athletic on Holloway: He’s a fast, powerful, physical, forechecking presence who I believe has a third-line floor and enough skill to push into a complementary top-six scorer and go-getter. He’s known as an explosive skater who is normally the most athletic player on the ice. AND He’s going to give future lines a different look and provide value and punch in all three zones on both special teams. I still see a 50-something point ceiling in the prime of his career if he can stay healthy. He’s got too much to work with not to establish himself in the very near future.

--McLeod is 2 years older, drafted in 2018. In the 2020 prospect pool rankings, Edmonton was ranked 15th and McLeod was ranked 5th. Here's what was said then: Though his numbers don’t leap out at you, I’ve liked what I’ve seen out of McLeod as a rookie this season. His skating is always going to be the be-all and end-all of his game. If he becomes an NHLer, it will be the driving force behind his success. He can turn defenders around, create partial breaks for himself, impact the forecheck and apply backpressure back the other way. AND Give him some time to become a great one and build some confidence and the Oilers may have a versatile, up-and-down the lineup type who can play on both special teams.

2. Reilly Smith (50% retained) to Vegas for a 2025 2nd and a 2026 3rd. Just the 2nd would be enough if we were only retaining for this year, but, retaining this year and next year needs an extra pick. I really wanted to get a prospect, but, Vegas's system isn't very good, and looking through their top 5, a lot of guys were undersized or very hit or miss, with top 9 potential or career AHLer both possible.

3. Nedeljkovic to Colorado for a 2026 3rd rounder and LHD Caleb Jones - Francouz is out for the season and they need a backup to Georgiev. There are some rumors of them going after Markstrom, but, they are already so tight on cap they'd have to give up a sizeable piece off their roster for him. Ned makes more cap sense. They'd be short a bit on cap hit, so they send us Caleb Jones back in help with the cap.

That's it for the trades.

Guentzel's retained salary is off the books after this year, so that is not a concern. Next season, 24-25, for dead cap space we'd have Jack Johnson's 916K, Jeff Petry's 1.56M, Reilly Smith 2.5M, and potentially 1.385M in cap hit from burying Jack Campbell in the minors. That's 6.36M in dead cap space next season, but all of it except for Campbell's buried amount and Jack Johnson's 916K come off the books after next season.

What did we gain? A 2025 1st, two 2025 2nds, two 2026 3rds, Dylan Holloway and Ryan McLeod. If the Penguins continue on the current trajectory, they are going to end up bottom 10 and keeping their draft pick, which is another added bonus. They picked up EDM 1st rounder in 2025 to hedge against not having a 1st next year. Let's assume the Penguins stay in the bottom 10, keep the 2024 1st and give SJ the 2025 1st. The Penguins have the following draft capital over the next 3 drafts (looking at round 1-3 only):

2024 1st and 2nd
2025 1st, 2nd, and 3rd
2026 1st, 2 2nds, 4 3rds

What does their lineup look like the rest of the season? No changes on defense (added Jones, but he can be waived for all I care), Hellberg or Blomqvist backing up Jarry. The forwards:

Rakell-Crosby-Puljujarvi
Holloway-Malkin-Rust
DOC-McLeod-Phillips
Harkins-Acciari-Carter
x-White

You give Malkin back on a respectable forward in Rust and see what Holloway can do in the remaining games. Puljujarvi can forecheck and be the Kunitz/Hornqvist type on that line for Sid and Rakell. 3rd and 4th lines remain a mess for now. We can call up Poulin and Puustinen to give them more work here as well.

Next season up front, Harkins, Phillips, Carter, and White are all gone. Sign one decent UFA forward, and then work on constructing a young bottom 6 out of Holloway, McLeod, Poulin, Puustinen, Puljujarvi, and Acciari, with some others coming in for competition.

I looked into moving Rakell and/or Karlsson. I just don't see it being feasible this year. They have too much term and cap $$$ are tight. Both would be very hard to move. Next year, when the cap opens up a bit...if they are still struggling, then maybe they can be moved.

[Dynasty1970]

FLPensFan for GM!!!!! Or special assistant to GMKD!!!!!

[DelPen]

DelPen’s plan for Dubas and the coaching staff: Viking Funeral

[BigMcK]

8. Pour four fingers of some 20+ years old bourbon, put my feet up on the desk, say to myself, it was a good day...

[Antonio]

I agree with all of that except I would look to move Jarry also and before Ned. I'd move both for the right return though. I believe that barring having a genuinely elite goalie, the added value of higher level against dime a dozen goalies is minimal and we aren't going to be winning anything soon anyway. If Jarry would net quality assets, then move him.

[BlackNGold4Life]

Love all of this but McLeod won’t be available in that deal with Holloway. One or the other “maybe” but both both. They won’t pay that much for a rental. Albeit getting out of Jack Cambells contract has value for sure.

Also with the cap space available next season, there would be 2 quality UFAs added on the wing.

BUT I’d love to see 90-100% of this type of plan executed. Starting with the staff.

Thanks for the effort and time with this post FLPens / love your well thought out posts.

[pens_CT]

I agree with all of that except I would look to move Jarry also and before Ned. I'd move both for the right return though. I believe that barring having a genuinely elite goalie, the added value of higher level against dime a dozen goalies is minimal and we aren't going to be winning anything soon anyway. If Jarry would net quality assets, then move him.

I wouldn't be against moving Jarry either. I think you might be better off making such a trade after the season when teams have more cap space available. Might open up a bigger market.

The team that could use Jarry is Edmonton. I don't see them going anywhere with their current goaltending group.

[thehockeyguru]

I'd keep Ned and try to resign him. Explore moving Jarry in the off-season besides Guentzel he's our best trade piece

[FLPensFan]

I'd keep Ned and try to resign him. Explore moving Jarry in the off-season besides Guentzel he's our best trade piece

I'm not opposed to moving Jarry, but I just don't see it happening at the trade deadline. Trust me, cap space is tight. It's rare to see teams trade major pieces off their roster going into the playoffs, but when you are looking at 4-5M AAV players, that's what they would need to do (or wash salary through a 3rd team, and with 3-5 years on some of these deals...that ain't happening)

I also don't see a ton of high trade value in Ned. Can he pickup a 3rd, maybe even a 2nd...yes. But he's 28 years old. This is Year 1 of him recovering his game from what he was capable of with Carolina, and he's got 9 whole career playoff games under his belt. His value is he's cheap and a UFA, compared to someone like Markstrom or Fleury.

[BurghThing]

I'd keep Ned and try to resign him. Explore moving Jarry in the off-season besides Guentzel he's our best trade piece

I'm not opposed to moving Jarry, but I just don't see it happening at the trade deadline. Trust me, cap space is tight. It's rare to see teams trade major pieces off their roster going into the playoffs, but when you are looking at 4-5M AAV players, that's what they would need to do (or wash salary through a 3rd team, and with 3-5 years on some of these deals...that ain't happening)

I also don't see a ton of high trade value in Ned. Can he pickup a 3rd, maybe even a 2nd...yes. But he's 28 years old. This is Year 1 of him recovering his game from what he was capable of with Carolina, and he's got 9 whole career playoff games under his belt. His value is he's cheap and a UFA, compared to someone like Markstrom or Fleury.

And he's not gonna get any playoff experience this year.

[BigMcK]

And he's not gonna get any playoff experience this year.

That is the most hurtful, truthful, and funniest comment in a single sentence posted for a while...

[Fast B]

I'd keep Ned and try to resign him. Explore moving Jarry in the off-season besides Guentzel he's our best trade piece

I'm not opposed to moving Jarry, but I just don't see it happening at the trade deadline. Trust me, cap space is tight. It's rare to see teams trade major pieces off their roster going into the playoffs, but when you are looking at 4-5M AAV players, that's what they would need to do (or wash salary through a 3rd team, and with 3-5 years on some of these deals...that ain't happening)

I also don't see a ton of high trade value in Ned. Can he pickup a 3rd, maybe even a 2nd...yes. But he's 28 years old. This is Year 1 of him recovering his game from what he was capable of with Carolina, and he's got 9 whole career playoff games under his belt. His value is he's cheap and a UFA, compared to someone like Markstrom or Fleury.

And he's not gonna get any playoff experience this year.

[IntangibleBeer]

If I were Kyle Dubas for 30 days, this is the plan that I would execute for the Penguins: (extremely long post...you've been warned)
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I love it. FLPensFan's plan deals with the issues. I've heard hope defined as "deferred disappointment". That is exactly what the Pens management is doing right now and there's no value to it. Deal with the problems NOW. And this plan does.

I think the plan is exceptionally well thought out and would love to see it implemented. I would add just 1 thing: Seriously, hire Jagr as PP coach. He certainly couldn't do worse and there is a real chance (because of his credibility) that he could ignite it.

[ahawk9]

I really think #2 is where they should start, and I don't have any faith that they will. When you're in a funk/slide like these guys are, you have to get rid of coaches first and see how things fall from there. Players who are struggling or plain awful could excel in a different system with a different voice. That would give you an idea of what can be done at the deadline, maybe not for a playoff push, but for whom to deal now for assets as you formulate your plan for the summer.

It's something that happens regularly in the NHL, the Pens being the outlier at the moment. I'm not saying they'll catch fire and reel off 16 in a row like Edmonton did, but some of these guys who are performing way below what their historical numbers say might have better trade value (or value to the team in the future) if they have a chance in a different system. If they don't pick it up then, well, at least you know you got a dud.

The absolute lack of anything, excepting the waiver pickup AHL phenom who seems to be fitting right in to the MO of the power play, is mind-boggling. I understand cap space is tight, but some of the WB-Scranton guys could do nothing just as well as some of the million-dollar bottom 6 guys.

[Southern Fan]

Guessing there be a lot of other teams scouts at Pens games over the next few weeks.

[penny lane]

Let's roll!

Sullivan put the guy, Phillips on the 2nd with Evgeni and Smith. He only helped to lose versus the kings.

Mutiny Crosby~ play as you can. DNA is offense, lets see what is left.

[Badger Bob]

I just read that DOC is on Geno's LW and Phillips is on the right.

Pittsburgh Penguins
Forwards

Rickard Rakell- Sidney Crosby- Bryan Rust
Drew O'Connor- Evgeni Malkin- Matthew Phillips
Reilly Smith- Lars Eller- Valtteri Puustinen
Jansen Harkins- Jeff Carter- Colin White
Defensemen

Pierre-Olivier Joseph- Kris Letang
Marcus Pettersson- Erik Karlsson
Ryan Graves- Chad Ruhwedel
Goalies

Tristan Jarry
Alex Nedeljkovic



Sully just throwing crap at the wall and hoping that something sticks. This is beyond ridiculous.

[Pitts]

Sully just throwing crap at the wall and hoping that something sticks. This is beyond ridiculous.

I mean, he's only got what he's got to work with. Dubas needs to get off his behind and make REAL changes.

[Toke]

I like it all, especially the part where you can the coaching staff.
However I am for some reason infatuated with the prospect of getting Zegras here. Just feel it would add some excitement/buzz to the team during the re-tool.
Thank you for posting and all the time spent diving into this mess.

[Coffey Break]

I just read that DOC is on Geno's LW and Phillips is on the right.

Pittsburgh Penguins
Forwards

Rickard Rakell- Sidney Crosby- Bryan Rust
Drew O'Connor- Evgeni Malkin- Matthew Phillips
Reilly Smith- Lars Eller- Valtteri Puustinen
Jansen Harkins- Jeff Carter- Colin White
Defensemen

Pierre-Olivier Joseph- Kris Letang
Marcus Pettersson- Erik Karlsson
Ryan Graves- Chad Ruhwedel
Goalies

Tristan Jarry
Alex Nedeljkovic



Sully just throwing crap at the wall and hoping that something sticks. This is beyond ridiculous.

As usual, Geno's wingers consist of something between a kitchen mop and a waste management garbage container. Complete joke how this org thinks it's okay for a 37-year old to carry a fringe bottom 6-er and a career AHLer. Mind-boggling and then people have the nerve to ask why Geno is playing so bad.

[Antonio]

Well in fairness, Crosby made Colby Armstrong and Conor Sheary look like real wingers but yeah... this is an absurd level of trash. Malkin is well past his prime ability to carry a line and giving him two ludicrously terrible trash wings isn't going to benefit anyone.

Christ, at least fully one third of that lineup aren't even NHL caliber players. Ugggggly.

[Coffey Break]

Also, is it just that Puljujarvi was playing too fast and physical for Sullivan's liking? Or did I miss something?

[maopens]

After reading these lines, I'm actually surprised Sullivan didn't insert Harkins right into Jake's spot.

[FLPensFan]

Also, is it just that Puljujarvi was playing too fast and physical for Sullivan's liking? Or did I miss something?

Seriously, do you know nothing???? It's because Jansen Harkins has a really nice shot. Duh!!! LOL

[Skatingpen]

To be fair. Malkin Not having wingers does not excuse his lack of effort and decision making, most nights.