Dubas gives himself an out with Sullivan.

[Three Stars]

How many psychiatrists does it take to change a lightbulb? Just one, but the bulb has to want to change.

This is the same thing. Dubas is the psychiatrist. Sullivan is the lightbulb. The obvious jokes and rants all apply.

https://theathletic.com/5351841/2024/03 ... ed_article

In the meantime, Dubas once again firmly backed his head coach Mike Sullivan, who has a contract extension that kicks in next season.

“I think if you go down that path that maybe the public wants you to go down (making a coaching change), then you’re back in the market of trying to find Mike Sullivan,’’ Dubas said. “To me, it’s not something… it would probably have to be a mutual thing where he felt that, and I felt that way, and I don’t feel that way at all right now.’’

[Badger Bob]

[KG]

How many psychiatrists does it take to change a lightbulb? Just one, but the bulb has to want to change.

This is the same thing. Dubas is the psychiatrist. Sullivan is the lightbulb. The obvious jokes and rants all apply.

https://theathletic.com/5351841/2024/03 ... ed_article

In the meantime, Dubas once again firmly backed his head coach Mike Sullivan, who has a contract extension that kicks in next season.

“I think if you go down that path that maybe the public wants you to go down (making a coaching change), then you’re back in the market of trying to find Mike Sullivan,’’ Dubas said. “To me, it’s not something… it would probably have to be a mutual thing where he felt that, and I felt that way, and I don’t feel that way at all right now.’’

Thanks for sharing! I do find it interesting that Dubas says “maybe the public wants you to go down” or would be a “mutual” parting.

I think that is how it would be spun. Out of respect to Sully, I don’t think the Pens will fire him per se, but call it a mutual parting etc.

You can easily see a scenario where Sully would want to move on and coach an up and coming contender like New Jersey.

[stonewizard51]

I have little to no hopes for Sully moving on unless the move is to the front office somewhere so a newer coach with different ideas can be found. Sully is the definition of "Einstein Insanity", doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

[KG]

Additional summary from the recent KD Athletic interview:

https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Ryan-Wi ... 177/124688

[Antonio]

I freely admit I was caught up in the hype over him as as some kind of hockey wunderkind, and thought he would be a great add as GM (partially because the previous one was so detestable). I now think that was an error and have been left pretty curious as to exactly where his reputation came from. His absolute off the charts idiocy regarding his devotion to that moron behind the bench, plus his apparent obsession with just signing and acquiring players he knew from Toronto has not inspired me. For sure, he has made a couple of solid moves (I still think the EK move was excellent with all factors considered and would have been a much greater success with a different coaching staff), but overall I am left far less impressed than I expected to be based on the hype.

[IntangibleBeer]

I freely admit I was caught up in the hype over him as as some kind of hockey wunderkind, and thought he would be a great add as GM (partially because the previous one was so detestable). I now think that was an error and have been left pretty curious as to exactly where his reputation came from. His absolute off the charts idiocy regarding his devotion to that moron behind the bench, plus his apparent obsession with just signing and acquiring players he knew from Toronto has not inspired me. For sure, he has made a couple of solid moves (I still think the EK move was excellent with all factors considered and would have been a much greater success with a different coaching staff), but overall I am left far less impressed than I expected to be based on the hype.

I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bath water just yet, Antonio. Kyle Dubas has been here a year, and he's tried a few things. Some have worked and some haven't. He can put the right pieces in the room, but he can't make them execute as we would all like. Obviously, the problem is deeper than he first thought. KD has to assess this for himself with all the inside info he has (that we do not) and the observations that we have made over the past 6 years (and he has not). A lot of us have watched the slow disintegration of this team; he hasn't had that privilege.

Let's just see how this plays out in the post-season before we

[Pitts]

^^ not even a year yet.

[Puck-Lurker]

Say you're GM and are firing your HC. Not right now, but probably in the future. Off-season maybe, or later. You will need a replacement to rebuild the team with when the time comes.

"I certainly consider things like firing Sullivan. It's one of the things that comes with this job."
(Obviously not something GMKD said)

That is *not* something a competent GM would say.

If you're contemplating sacking Sully, you keep quiet. Maybe have some conversations with Sully, a few players (or really, just Crosby) and see what shape it'll be. I can certainly imagine a scenario where HCMS is fired -- but under the pretense of it being a joint decision to part ways. Time to change the scenery, for both parties. You come out with that when you're ready to push the button.

Ideally you want to have someone lined up to take his place, after. Or have enough time to find a replacement (off-season).

So instead you play up the fact that you're not going to fire your coach. While the season is ongoing, you probably aren't going to anyway.

"I'd only fire a coach like Sullivan, if we both felt it was the right thing to do. I don't feel that way at all"
(paraphrasing what GMKD said)



Sadly, that's indistinguishable from: "I fully believe in Sully and will never fire him ever!! I agree with Sully that any player not Crosby should sit before Carter does"

[yinzer69]

I freely admit I was caught up in the hype over him as as some kind of hockey wunderkind, and thought he would be a great add as GM (partially because the previous one was so detestable). I now think that was an error and have been left pretty curious as to exactly where his reputation came from. His absolute off the charts idiocy regarding his devotion to that moron behind the bench, plus his apparent obsession with just signing and acquiring players he knew from Toronto has not inspired me. For sure, he has made a couple of solid moves (I still think the EK move was excellent with all factors considered and would have been a much greater success with a different coaching staff), but overall I am left far less impressed than I expected to be based on the hype.

so you want to get rid of Dubas before even a year is over??? Immediately your credibility is ZERO.

[Antonio]

Yeah, listen, to be clear...I am not yet. I am not ready to throw the baby out yet nor am I looking for a change at GM at this stage. Far from it. I am simply saying, I was hyped for him based on getting caught up in the hype without really looking into or knowing why he was or should/n't have been hyped up, and I had high expectations based on that frenzy. So far, what I have seen has been a very mixed bag...Eller, EK , signing/acquiring friends from TOR almost exclusively , refusing to see or even entertain the painfully obvious reality the entire world sees about MS . That said, I am certainly not furious over him or ready to throw him out just yet...I am simply saying that so far, the reality I have seen has been far less "GM in apotheosis" and far more "run of the mill average to below average human GM". I am admittedly struggling with the MS endorsement the most, as there is just no defensible or comprehensible reason for the support of him at this point (nor has there been for nigh half a decade in my opinion), so if he is still here next year (which he will be), at that point I will struggle a lot more with accepting KD almost regardless of other factors at that point. Currently though, I am more in the camp of, I allowed myself to have much higher expectations, fair or not, and so far I have not seen anything that justifies his ascendant reputation prior to coming here. Time will tell how he works out in the end, as he has certainly shown some positive moves and honestly, I would be a lot more positive on him were he to have fired or at least entertained the necessary reality of a coaching change.

[FLPensFan]

Sometimes, little comments have a lot of meaning. Reading through that entire article, it sounds like Dubas's job isn't much different than the task Hextall was set out to do by FSG....stay competitive as much as possible, but build toward the future...and lean toward the future vs the now. That means, if you have a judgement call where you could make X move to help you now, but it hurts a bit in the longer term, Dubas probably isn't going to sacrifice the future. Just like Chychrun maybe was a better play for the Penguins than Karlsson, Hextall wouldn't sacrifice those future firsts. Dubas did, but he also did it to dump Granlund and Petry.

In regards to Sullivan, my read of the article seems to point to what I've said previously...they don't want to fire Sullivan because, while things are not working now, they believe in Sully and his system so much, that they are willing to ride out some below expectations seasons with Sullivan, with the premise/hope/prayer that when the core moves on (retires), Sullivan is the right coach to lead a young, rebuilding team. Big risk they are taking with that strategy.

Dubas talked a bit about the Guentzel trade, but interestingly, whenever he talked about the core (he didn't call it the core), he included both EK65 and Rust in his mention of players (plus Sullivan) who he rightfully expected to be upset about Jake being traded.

My intuition says that the team will try to move Rakell with a pick or prospect this summer, for a younger winger. With Rust being mentioned in that "core" group, I have a feeling they won't move him. Smith is a UFA after next season. Bunting has next season and another. Makes sense to try and move the longer term player (Rakell and Rust are both signed through 27-28 season).

[yinzer69]

Yeah, listen, to be clear...I am not yet. I am not ready to throw the baby out yet nor am I looking for a change at GM at this stage. Far from it. I am simply saying, I was hyped for him based on getting caught up in the hype without really looking into or knowing why he was or should/n't have been hyped up, and I had high expectations based on that frenzy. So far, what I have seen has been a very mixed bag...Eller, EK , signing/acquiring friends from TOR almost exclusively , refusing to see or even entertain the painfully obvious reality the entire world sees about MS . That said, I am certainly not furious over him or ready to throw him out just yet...I am simply saying that so far, the reality I have seen has been far less "GM in apotheosis" and far more "run of the mill average to below average human GM". I am admittedly struggling with the MS endorsement the most, as there is just no defensible or comprehensible reason for the support of him at this point (nor has there been for nigh half a decade in my opinion), so if he is still here next year (which he will be), at that point I will struggle a lot more with accepting KD almost regardless of other factors at that point. Currently though, I am more in the camp of, I allowed myself to have much higher expectations, fair or not, and so far I have not seen anything that justifies his ascendant reputation prior to coming here. Time will tell how he works out in the end, as he has certainly shown some positive moves and honestly, I would be a lot more positive on him were he to have fired or at least entertained the necessary reality of a coaching change.

other than Bunting who did he acquire that he had in Toronto?

how do you know he hasn't entertained the idea of changes to the coaching staff? If you are waiting for him to publicly bash anyone within the organization than you'll be waiting for a long time. He won't even bash people from Toronto.

[Guinness]

refusing to see or even entertain the painfully obvious reality the entire world sees about MS .

I understand and don't really even disagree with you, but as a manager it can be a difficult thing to come in to an organization and start upending tables, principally which would include firing a very popular (however unreasonably) head coach before he's even had a season to work with him.

I expect that Dubas will figure out a way for an amicable parting with Sullivan this summer. If he does not, I"ll be just as disappointed as you'll be. Until then, maybe keep in mind that he has a challenging job - he needs to keep fans, ownership, and the players happy all at the same time. That's a helluva juggling act, especially when you take into account the fact that the interests of those 3 groups don't frequently align.

[Ericf]

See, I read his comments about Sullivan the way I’ve read all of his over-the-top praise of the coach all along: he can’t fire him. I mean Dubas is basically telling us by mentioning mutual parting of the ways that he has no authority to fire per the contract extension negotiated by FSG. Unless Sullivan wants out, expect to see him ruining this team against next season lol

[lemieuxReturns]

In 4 games, Jake has 5 points with Carolina.

[VA Fan]

I agree with the assumption that they think Sullivan can be the guy to coach this team once the core is gone and we have to go with young players. Dubas bosses at FSG did directly negotiate the extension with Sullivan.

I am not sure how that works if Sid does sign an extension and you have to assume as long as he is playing the team will have to try and compete to at least get to the play offs. Because if they keep tweaking the team and it continues to fall flat you have no other real option but to say it’s the coach.

I did want to ask, everybody, me included seems to think a lot of our problem is lack of offense. I wanted to ask if some better stats guys have looked at past seasons including the cup years and determined is that true. I ask because looking at some of the regular season stats it appears to me we maybe scoring when it is all said and done close to average. So does that mean are defensive forward are failing at defense. Is it maybe the goalies? I am not sure.

[FLPensFan]

I agree with the assumption that they think Sullivan can be the guy to coach this team once the core is gone and we have to go with young players. Dubas bosses at FSG did directly negotiate the extension with Sullivan.

I am not sure how that works if Sid does sign an extension and you have to assume as long as he is playing the team will have to try and compete to at least get to the play offs. Because if they keep tweaking the team and it continues to fall flat you have no other real option but to say it’s the coach.

I did want to ask, everybody, me included seems to think a lot of our problem is lack of offense. I wanted to ask if some better stats guys have looked at past seasons including the cup years and determined is that true. I ask because looking at some of the regular season stats it appears to me we maybe scoring when it is all said and done close to average. So does that mean are defensive forward are failing at defense. Is it maybe the goalies? I am not sure.

It's hard to compare compare back to the Cup years, because offense and defense as a league ebbs and flows. Traditionally, offense has been on the rise, so saying we scored as many goals this year as we did the 2 Cup years may not actually be a valid comparison. But, here are some numbers I can provide:

--This year, through 67 games, the team has 197 goals for. That is the 8th lowest total (24th overall) in the league right now. We are 1 of 9 teams that has not yet 200 goals scored as a team.
--Last year, through 67 games, we had 221 goals for. That was 15th overall at that time, and for the full 82 game schedule, we finished 17th in goal scoring.
---> So just year over year, we are 24 goals short of our pace last year, and even the 24 goals more we had last year had us only in the middle of the pack in terms of goal scoring. Last year, when we had 221 goals for, there were 8 teams that had 230+ goals, with EDM at 264

Going back further to look at the back to back Cup years...
--In 15-16, through 67 games, we had 183 goals for. That was 14th overall at the time, and we finish the season with 245 goals for and 4th overall. That was a major goal surge at the end of the season. Through 67 games, 2.73 goals per game...the last 15 games, 4.13 goals per game.
--In 16-17, through 67 games, we had 236 goals for. That was 1st overall in goals for at the time, and we finished with 282 goals, still first overall, 16 more goals than 2nd place Minnesota.

What this tells me, which jives with the eye test, is that yes, lack of scoring is a problem. That 16-17 season, we had 5 players above 20 goals, and Bonino very close at 18 goals. This year, we have 3, with Malkin hanging at 19 about to be the 4th. In 16-17, the top 4 goal scorers had a combined 123 goals. This year, our top 4 goal scorers (including Guentzel) have 94 total goals.

I think our defense this year, for as bad as the odd-man breaks and such are, is actually much better, but it has collapsed recently as well. On February 1st, the team had given up 126 goals, 3rd lowest overall in the league (2.73 goals against per game). As of today, we've given up 199 goals against, 10th overall in the league. In 21 games since February 1st, we've given up 73 goals, 3.47 goals against per game. So we dropped from one of the top 3, to giving up goals at a rate more in line with the bottom 5 teams overall.

Just a lot of bad all around.

[VA Fan]

Thanks!

That breakdown helps alot.

[Daniel]

I agree with the assumption that they think Sullivan can be the guy to coach this team once the core is gone and we have to go with young players. Dubas bosses at FSG did directly negotiate the extension with Sullivan.

I am not sure how that works if Sid does sign an extension and you have to assume as long as he is playing the team will have to try and compete to at least get to the play offs. Because if they keep tweaking the team and it continues to fall flat you have no other real option but to say it’s the coach.

I did want to ask, everybody, me included seems to think a lot of our problem is lack of offense. I wanted to ask if some better stats guys have looked at past seasons including the cup years and determined is that true. I ask because looking at some of the regular season stats it appears to me we maybe scoring when it is all said and done close to average. So does that mean are defensive forward are failing at defense. Is it maybe the goalies? I am not sure.

It's hard to compare compare back to the Cup years, because offense and defense as a league ebbs and flows. Traditionally, offense has been on the rise, so saying we scored as many goals this year as we did the 2 Cup years may not actually be a valid comparison. But, here are some numbers I can provide:

--This year, through 67 games, the team has 197 goals for. That is the 8th lowest total (24th overall) in the league right now. We are 1 of 9 teams that has not yet 200 goals scored as a team.
--Last year, through 67 games, we had 221 goals for. That was 15th overall at that time, and for the full 82 game schedule, we finished 17th in goal scoring.
---> So just year over year, we are 24 goals short of our pace last year, and even the 24 goals more we had last year had us only in the middle of the pack in terms of goal scoring. Last year, when we had 221 goals for, there were 8 teams that had 230+ goals, with EDM at 264

Going back further to look at the back to back Cup years...
--In 15-16, through 67 games, we had 183 goals for. That was 14th overall at the time, and we finish the season with 245 goals for and 4th overall. That was a major goal surge at the end of the season. Through 67 games, 2.73 goals per game...the last 15 games, 4.13 goals per game.
--In 16-17, through 67 games, we had 236 goals for. That was 1st overall in goals for at the time, and we finished with 282 goals, still first overall, 16 more goals than 2nd place Minnesota.

What this tells me, which jives with the eye test, is that yes, lack of scoring is a problem. That 16-17 season, we had 5 players above 20 goals, and Bonino very close at 18 goals. This year, we have 3, with Malkin hanging at 19 about to be the 4th. In 16-17, the top 4 goal scorers had a combined 123 goals. This year, our top 4 goal scorers (including Guentzel) have 94 total goals.

I think our defense this year, for as bad as the odd-man breaks and such are, is actually much better, but it has collapsed recently as well. On February 1st, the team had given up 126 goals, 3rd lowest overall in the league (2.73 goals against per game). As of today, we've given up 199 goals against, 10th overall in the league. In 21 games since February 1st, we've given up 73 goals, 3.47 goals against per game. So we dropped from one of the top 3, to giving up goals at a rate more in line with the bottom 5 teams overall.

Just a lot of bad all around.

Just a quick look at goals for and pp goals for. The Penguins are 25th in goals for and about 29th in pp goals for. If they scored 20 goals, they’d be top 10 in pp goals and about 10th in total goals. Could that maybe give them 10 more wins and 20 more points?

We can talk this and that and whatever, but I think this team has the talent to be a top 10 PP unit and that would give them about 85-90 points (give or take, we can’t assume 20 goals = 10 more wins, but who knows?).

If you think about it, is the team that far off from contending one last time if you consider how much of a complete failure the PP has been and by proxy the season?

[Sams_Dog]

Dubas' quotes make me believe even more that he really doesn't have the authority to fire Sullivan. FSG has that authority.

[brwi]

In 4 games, Jake has 5 points with Carolina.

Now in 5 games he has 8pts. He is a perfect fit for Carolina. Dubas had to make that deal because otherwise Pens would get nothing when left in UFA. Pens arent a playoff team with Jake so better to use the bucks he will cost elsewhere

[Three Stars]

I don’t think Sullivan is the problem, but it’s safe to say his message hasn’t gotten through to the team this season, which is a major concern.

Here’s Josh Yohe’s opinion from his mailbag. He seems to be either throwing the players under the bus for not processing the message, or is blaming the roster construction as not being conducive to the coach’s plan.

[VA Fan]

Given that per Dubas in his interviews he gave the impression that Sullivan and the coaching staff were involved in the roster moves over the summer but were not involved in the trade deadline moves. One wonders if some of the roster construction can be attributed to the type of players Sullivan wanted.

Also his lineup choices seem to indicate the players brought in were players he liked.

So why is Sullivan getting a pass on roster construction since the new GM was here for a couple of weeks maybe before it began. Would it not make sense that he asked the coach what he wanted?

[Antonio]

Given that per Dubas in his interviews he gave the impression that Sullivan and the coaching staff were involved in the roster moves over the summer but were not involved in the trade deadline moves. One wonders if some of the roster construction can be attributed to the type of players Sullivan wanted.

Also his lineup choices seem to indicate the players brought in were players he liked.

So why is Sullivan getting a pass on roster construction since the new GM was here for a couple of weeks maybe before it began. Would it not make sense that he asked the coach what he wanted?

I mean it's been pretty clear for a while that Sullivan has been having direct influence on roster acquisitions and construction.